Tag: Mike Scott

Quality Starts and Twins Wins

A pitcher gets credit for a quality start (QS) any time he allows three earned runs or less in a start that lasts at least six innings. John Lowe who was writing for the Philadelphia Inquirer at the time developed and coined the term Quality Start back in 1985.

Most arguments against the QS begin with the statement that a QS equals a 4.50 ERA and an ERA of 4.50 is not seen as top-notch by anybody. If you look up QS on Wiki you can find some strange situations for and against the term QS, for example, in 2000 Mark Mulder goes 6 and 2/3 innings giving up 15 hits, nine runs but only two were earned and so he gets a QS, in 1982 Mike Scott goes the required 6 innings giving up 7 hits, 5 walks, zero strikeouts, allows 7 runs albeit only 3 earned and he get a QS, on the other side of the coin, back in 1974 Gaylord Perry goes 15 innings and allows 4 earned runs and get no QS, same with Randy Johnson who pitches a complete game while striking out 19 but gives up 4 earnies and gets no QS.

Since 1961, the most MLB QS in a single season record is held by White Sox knuckleballer Wilbur Wood who had 37 QS in 41 starts in 1971. Next on the list is Dodger great Sandy Koufax with 36 QS in 1966 (his final season) in 41 starts. The career leaders in QS from 1961-current are Don Sutton with 483, Nolan Ryan with 481, and Greg Maddux with 480.

LHP Jim Kaat
LHP Jim Kaat

The Twins top five career QS leaders are Jim Kaat with 253, Bert Blyleven with 218, Brad Radke with 208, Jim Perry with 156 and Frank Viola with 144. The Twins most QS in a season  record belongs to Bert Blyleven who had 31 QS in 1972 in 38 starts. That 1972 Twins team had the most QS in a single season with 114 in 154 games, that means that 74% of their games were QS and yet the team finished with a 77-77 record. The others starters that season were Dick Woodson with 26 QS, Jim Perry with 22, Jim Kaat and Ray Corbin with 14 and Dave Goltz with 7. Compare that with the 66 QS in 2014 where the team leader was Phil Hughes with 20, Kyle Gibson had 15, Kevin Correia, had 13, Ricky Nolasco had 10, Yohan Pino had 3, Trevor May and Sam Deduno had 2 each and Tommy Milone put one in the books.

Bert Blyleven
Bert Blyleven

But how close is the relationship of a QS to what really counts, a team victory. If you look at the list that I have provided below that shows the Minnesota Twins QS and the team record you can get a feel for how the two compare. Sure, there are outlier seasons like 1972 when the team had 114 QS and finished the season with a 77-77 record or when the opposite happened in 2006 when the Twins went to the play-offs with a 96-66 record but only had 73 QS. By the way, I don’t remember seeing any Rick Anderson for governor buttons back then.

The Twins historical QS numbers are kind of strange, almost a bell-shaped curve. The Twins have had 90 or more QS in a season 11 times and went to the playoffs zero times. No Twins team with 72 or less QS has sniffed the playoffs either. The Twins have advanced to the playoffs 11 times and their QS were always in the 73-89 range and if you exclude the 2006 season with just 73 QS, the other ten fall between 78-89. Having said all that, in the past 54 seasons the Twins have had 4,266 QS, the team record during that period is 4,274-4,335. 4,266 QS and 4,274 wins over 54 seasons, is that strange or what?

The chart below shows you in a pictorial fashion the relationship of QS and Twins victories. Click on the chart to make it larger.

Quality Starts versus Wins

 

Twins Quality Start History

YEAR QS RECORD
1972 114 77-77
1967 105 91-71
1968 100 79-83
1966 99 89-73
1963 95 91-70
1973 93 81-81
1978 92 73-89
1974 90 82-80
 1984  90  81-81
 1988  90  91-71
 2005  90  83-79
 1965*  89  102-60
 1970*  89  98-64
 1991*  89  95-67
 1969*  88  97-65
 1971  88  74-86
 1989  88  80-82
 1964  86  79-83
 2008  86  88-75
 2010*  86  94-68
 1976  83  85-77
 1992  83  90-72
 2004*  83  92-70
1980  82 77-84
 1987*  80  85-77
2001  80  85-77
 2003*  80  90-72
2007  80  79-83
 2011  80  63-99
 1962  79  91-71
2009* 79 87-76
 1998 78 70-92
 2002* 78 94-67
 1961  75  70-90
1990 75  74-88
 1985 74  77-85
 1979  73  82-80
 2006*  73  96-66
 1975  71  76-83
 1986  71  71-91
 2000  71  69-93
 1977 70 84-77
 1993 69 71-91
 1996 69  78-84
 1983 67  70-92
 1982 66 60-102
 2014 66 70-92
 1999 63  63-97
 2012 62  66-96
2013 62  66-96
1997 61 68-94
1981 56  41-68
 1995 43  56-88
 1994 37  53-60
 TOTALS  4,266  4,274-4,335
* = went to playoffs
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Twins QS data by decade

DECADE QS AVG. QS PER SEASON
1960’s 816 90.7
1970’s 863 86.3
1980’s 764 76.4
1990’s 667 66.7
2000’s 800 80.0
2010’s 356 71.2
Data provided by Baseball-Reference Play Index.
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I asked Jim Kaat if he would comment on Quality Starts and here is what Jim had to say-

Thanks John,
I’m happy to comment on “Quality Starts”. It’s one of my favorite subjects because it is misunderstood. My pitching stats person, Merrianna McCully, has compiled a 25 year profile on QS’s in her book ‘Three Up Three Down’. She kept all sorts of pitching stats for me from 1988-2006…
The MINIMUM DAILY REQUIREMENT,[ like a vitamin pill] is 6 ip. 3 er or less..the actual earned run averages in a Quality start is a little under 2 in the NL and about 2.05 in the American league..DH factor…The IP’s in a QS game will close to 8 innings pitched. The records show that if a team got just a minimum daily requirement for a QS they would win about 2/3 of their games unless they had an extremely ineffective bullpen.

Jim

Twins hodgepodge

Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer

Seems to be some validity to the complaining that the Twins best paid player Joe Mauer isn’t hitting with runners on base. Joe Mauer had the go-ahead single in the ninth inning for Minnesota on Monday, after he entered the game hitting .171 (7 for 41) in Late Inning Pressure Situations. Over the past six seasons (2008-2013), Mauer hit .339 in LIPS, the highest in the major leagues among players with at least 100 plate appearances.

The Ft. Myers Miracle the Twins High-A team is now calling JetBlue Park their new home for the rest of the regular season and the playoffs as Hammond Stadium undergoes the second phase of their two-year remodeling effort. It will be interesting to see what Hammond Stadium will look like next spring.

The Cedar Rapids Kernels the Twins Low-A club and the Minnesota Twins extended their player-development contract (PDC) through the 2020 season. Another nail in the coffin for those that had hopes of St. Paul landing a Twins minor league affiliation in their new ballpark that is being built.

Minneapolis provided MLB with free rent and discounted services for the All-Star FanFest at the Minneapolis Convention Center when the Twins hosted the 2014 All-Star game.

Ron Davis - Twins pitcher from 1982 - 1986 (courtesy of the Minnesota Twins)
Ron Davis – Twins pitcher from 1982 – 1986 (courtesy of the Minnesota Twins)

Twenty eight years ago today the Twins traded closer Ron Davis along with minor league pitcher Dewayne Coleman to the Chicago Cubs for relievers George Frazier and Ray Fontenot and shortstop Julius McDougal. Davis was the Twins closer from 1982 until he was traded in 1986. Davis saved 108 games for the Twins but it was the games that he didn’t save that made Davis one of the biggest villans in Twins history. Here is a piece about Davis in the LA Times. The Twinstrivia  interview with Ron Davis can be found here.

In the last three weeks Terry Ryan and Rob Antony have been busy house-cleaning and they have cut about $8 million from the Twins payroll. First the Twins traded DH/1B Kendrys Morales to the Seattle Mariners for RHP Stephen Pryor. Then they traded outfielder Sam Fuld to the Oakland A’s for LHP Tommy Milone. Then RHP Kevin Correia was sent out to La La land where he will pitch for the Dodgers and the Twins will receive a PTBNL or cash. Their latest trade has outfielder/DH Josh Willingham headed south to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for minor league RHP Jason Adam. Here is what a KC blog site called Cover the Bases had to say about the deal. Are there still more trades on the horizon? You never know but if I was Jared Burton  I might not be too quick to send out my clothes to the dry cleaners. Joe Mauer is now the oldest position player on the team, Wow!

Jim Merritt
Jim Merritt

A lot is being made of King Felix Hernandez and his run of history making starts this season where he has pitched seven innings or more and allowed two runs or fewer. There is even talk of him as a serious MVP candidate. Have any Twins pitchers had a nice run like that? Turns out that Jim Merritt had 11 games in a row back in 1967. This is actually a pretty amazing run by Hernandez, since 1961 there have only been 10 pitchers that have had a streak of 10 games or more that fit this criteria. Check out the list, there are some pretty good pitchers here.

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 Streaks of seven innings pitched and two or fewer runs allowed since 1961

Rk Name Strk Start End Games W L GS CG SHO IP H R BB SO HR ERA Tm
1 Felix Hernandez 2014-05-18 2014-08-11 16 9 2 16 0 0 121.0 69 20 20 134 4 1.41 SEA
2 Tom Seaver 1971-07-17 1971-09-16 13 8 3 13 10 2 114.1 72 15 25 114 5 0.94 NYM
3 Mike Scott 1986-05-17 1986-07-07 12 6 3 12 2 1 96.1 58 16 19 99 4 1.40 HOU
4 Dwight Gooden 1985-09-06 1986-05-06 12 9 0 12 7 4 105.0 63 10 21 88 2 0.69 NYM
5 Gaylord Perry 1974-04-23 1974-06-12 11 10 0 11 10 2 98.1 56 14 35 61 3 0.92 CLE
6 Larry Dierker 1969-08-03 1969-09-17 11 7 2 11 6 1 94.2 50 14 16 79 5 1.33 HOU
7 Bob Gibson 1968-06-06 1968-07-30 11 11 0 11 11 8 99.0 56 3 13 83 0 0.27 STL
8 Jim Merritt 1967-06-25 1967-08-13 11 5 3 11 4 1 94.0 70 16 6 59 4 1.53 MIN
9 Johnny Cueto 2013-09-23 2014-05-15 10 4 2 10 3 2 79.0 36 12 21 81 8 1.25 CIN
10 Don Sutton 1976-08-10 1976-09-27 10 9 0 10 7 2 90.2 53 9 18 54 5 0.89 LAD
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/13/2014.

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Bob Gibson
Bob Gibson

Take a moment to check out Bob Gibson‘s numbers in the table above, they are absolutely incredible. His streak was 11 games long, his record was 11-0 and he had 11 complete games with 8 shutouts and a total of three runs allowed. No wonder Cardinals catcher Tim McCarver said that Gibson was the luckiest pitcher ever, he only pitched when the other team was not hitting.

The Minnesota Twins are still on track to have over 2.3 million fans at Target Field this summer. I think as the cooler weather approaches, the state fair gets in full swing and school begins, the attendance will fall off and the Twins will be around the 2 million mark but that is still an amazing mark for a team that has played as badly as the Twins have for the last four years.

So what about Ron Gardenhire and his staff? I think they are history within a week of the season ending. Who will be the Twins new skipper, it won’t be anyone currently associated with the Minnesota Twins today. Who would I like it to be? I think the Twins should swing a deal with the Marlins and bring Mike Redmond in as the Twins manager in 2015. The man had done well with the players he has been given. Will it happen? Nooooooo