Who should be the next Minnesota Twins closer

The Twins haven’t signed any free agents this off-season but it is only a matter of time before they do. One of the relief spots they need to fill is the closer role. The Twins traded Brandon Kintzler, their closer to the Washington Nationals this past summer for 20 year-old left-handed starter Tyler Watson and some international bonus slot cash. Watson pitched in class A ball for both the Nats and Twins.

Brandon Kintzler earned $2.925 million last year and saved 28 games in Minnesota during the four months he was a Minnesota Twin in 2017. In 2016 he saved 29 games. Although not a prototypical closer, he got the job done for the Twins for a modest price on a team in 2016 that lost 103 games. After the Twins traded Kintzler, reliever Matt Belisle received the most save opportunities and he notched 9 saves. 

Let’s take a look at the Twins last 12 seasons and see how their closers did and how much they were paid.

YEAR NAME SAVES BS SAVE %
2017 Kintzler ($2.93 M) 28 4 87.5%
2017 Belisle ($2.05 M) 9 5 64%
2016 Kintzler ($507,000) 17 3 85%
2016 Jepsen ($5.31 M) 7 4 63.6%
2015 Perkins ($4.66 M) 32 3 91.4%
2015 Jepsen ($3.03 M) 10 1 90.9%
2014 Perkins ($4.03 M) 34 7 82.9%
2013 Perkins ($2.5 M) 36 4 90%
2012 Perkins ($1.55 M) 16 4 80%
2012 Capps ($4.5 M) 14 1 93.3%
2011 Capps ($7.15M) 15 9 62.5%
2011 Nathan ($11.25 M) 14 3 82.4%
2010 Rauch ($2.9 M) 21 4 84.0%
2010 Capps ($3.5 M) 16 2 88.9%
2009 Nathan ($11.25) 47 5 98.4%
2008 Nathan ($6.0 M) 39 6 86.7%
2007 Nathan ($5.25 M) 37 4 90.2%
2006 Nathan ($3.75 M) 36 2 94.7%

Interactive Whiteboards by PolyVision

If you look at the percentage of games closed for the top three Twins closers over the last 12 seasons you end up with a save percentage of 90.3 for Joe Nathan, 86.8 for Glen Perkins, and 86.5 for Brandon Kintzler. In 2017 the average closer had 25 saves in 29 opportunities and saved 86.7% of games they were asked to save. 

Twins Turkey of the Year for 2016

Turkey Cartoon

First of all I would like to wish you and your families and friends a very happy, healthy, and safe Thanksgiving. Without further ado let’s cut to the meat of things.

There were so many options for the 2016 Twins Turkey of the Year that the following didn’t even make the final five this Thanksgiving. Players like Glen PerkinsTrevor Plouffe, Joe MauerJohn Ryan MurphyByron BuxtonMiguel SanoByung Ho ParkTyler DuffeyPhil HughesKevin Jepsen, and Trevor May all deserve to be on the list but this years field is just so packed with worthy candidates that all these guys can muster is an honorable mention.

Jim Pohlad
Jim Pohlad

Let’s cut to the chase and get right to it with our fourth runner-up, The Pohlad family, the 75th richest family in the US of A and Jim Pohlad serves as their spokesman. Mr. Pohlad watched this team deteriorate for six seasons before he finally realized that what we have here is a “total systems failure” when his team set a new record with 103 losses. Finally he told his GM Terry Ryan that his services were no longer needed as of the end of the season and Terry Ryan said OK and walked away in July. The team didn’t put a permanent replacement in place until after the World Series was over in early November although Rob Antony served as the interim GM. According to the new Chief of Baseball Operations for the Twins, he interviewed with brothers Jim, Bill, and Bob Pohlad and a host of other Twins organization members before getting offered the job. The one stipulation that Jim Pohlad put on the new CBO was that Paul Molitor manages the Twins in 2017. Why would you do that to a manager who is in the final year of his contract and why would Molitor stay on the job? Sounds like Pohlad doesn’t want to do the dirty work in dumping Molitor, that’s why he has employees like Derek Falvey.

Twins General Manager Terry Ryan (Pioneer Press: John Autey)
Twins General Manager Terry Ryan (Pioneer Press: John Autey)

Our third runner-up is former GM Terry Ryan. Terry Ryan was always one of my favorite people in the Twins organization. A very good down to earth baseball man who has watched how baseball has changed over the years but unfortunately I think that the pace of change within baseball caught up with him and made him one of baseball’s dinosaurs and you all know what happened to the dinosaurs. I think that there should always be a place in baseball for people like Terry Ryan. Ryan had either bad luck or bad input on many of his free agent signings over the last few years and his trades have not panned out either. One of his biggest mistakes was his decision this past season to try to make Miguel Sano an outfielder when he had never played there before, not only was Sano not able to play the outfield he was so confused and stressed by the position change that he was no longer the power hitter the Twins have been waiting for.

Neil Allen
Neil Allen

Second runner-up is our pitching coach Neil Allen. Allen talks a story about how he wants to change the pitching staff and make them better but so far we have not seen zilch. After two seasons at least show me a couple of pitchers that have improved under the tutelage of Allen because I sure have not seen them. Who really hired Neil Allen to be the pitching coach any way because Paul Molitor said that he never met Allen before Twins Fest in 2015. Add in the fact that Allen has been a recovering alcoholic since 1994 but fell off the wagon and was charged with a DWI and suspended by Minnesota on May 26 and you have a recipe for disaster. Allen was reinstated on July.

Paul Molitor
Paul Molitor

Our runner-up this year is Twins skipper Paul Molitor who will start year three of his three-year contract. I am still amazed that Molitor has hung on as the Twins manager going into the final year of his contract. Players in 2017 have no reason to buy into Molitor’s ideas and plans because the players will be here longer than Molitor will. What faith does management have in you when they force you to manage in this situation, they might as well tell him don’t buy any green banana’s and to go month to month on his rent payments. Molitor took over 70 win team and managed them to 83 win in his first year, then in year two he managed them to 59 wins. The honeymoon has worn off quickly and the sooner Derek Falvey gives Molitor the pink slip the better it will be for all concerned including Paul Molitor who looks like he has aged 20 years in his two season at the helm of the Minnesota Twins. For his own health and well being Paul Molitor should walk away sooner than later.

That of course bring us to this years winner of the Twins Turkey of the Year award. The 2016 Minnesota Twins season was so outrageously bad that it would not be fair to award this years honor to just one individual. Instead this years award goes to all the players, field staff, and front office personnel who made up the 2016 Minnesota Twins team. The team finished with the worst record in baseball at 59-103, a drop from 83 wins in 2015, a drop of 24 games in the win column. Yikes! The team was out scored 722 to 889, only the 1996 Twins gave up more runs. Twins hitters did hit 200 home runs led by Brain Dozier’s 42 but the pitching staff gave up 221 round-trippers. The Twins used 11 starting pitchers and the starter with the most wins had nine victories. Miguel Sano led the team in strikeouts with 178, oh wait, he is a hitter, on the pitching staff Ervin Santana had 149 K’s. The good news? The Minnesota Twins say they will not raise ticket prices in 2017, a good idea after going 407-565 (.418%) during the last six seasons. I know this is really a radical idea but maybe you should consider lowering ticket prices….. but then again that is not how you earned the 2016 Twins Turkey of the Year award.

2016 Twins Turkey of the Year award winners - the 2016 Minnesota Twins
2016 Twins Turkey of the Year award winners – the 2016 Minnesota Twins

 

Previous Twins Turkey of Year award winners

2015 – Pitcher Ricky Nolasco

2014 – Outfielder Aaron Hicks

2013 – Presdident Dave St. Peter

2012 – Owner Jim Pohlad

2011 – Catcher Joe Mauer

2010 – 3B Brendan Harris

2009 – Glen Perkins

Why don’t Twins just jettison Jepsen?

Kevin Jepsen
Kevin Jepsen

Twins reliever Kevin Jepsen will be 32 years old in a month or so and he is pitching in his ninth season in the big leagues. Jepsen was selected in the second round by the Angels in 2002 and the Twins selected Jesse Crain just a few picks later. Like most pitchers, Jepsen started his career as a starter but was moved to the bullpen full-time in 2006 and he has not started a game since.

The Twins acquired Jepsen in a trade with Tampa for prospects Chih-Wei Huh and Alexis Tapia at the trade  deadline in 2015. Not unlike many of the relievers in MLB, Kevin Jepsen has had an up and down career. Very few relievers are consistent from year to year and if they are, they usually find themselves in a closer’s role.

Jepsen was a godsend for the Twins last season when he pitched great as the 8th inning guy before taking over the closer role from Glen Perkins in mid-August. 2016 has been one of those bad seasons for Jepsen from day 1. Jepsen has lost his closer role now but he has appeared in 32 games this season and pitched 29.2 innings. In his 29+ innings Jepsen has given up 42 hits and 12 walks and given up 22 runs, 21 of them earned. The man has pitched horrendously for the Twins while getting paid $5.3 million.

So what do you do with him? Why keep a reliever who is pitching poorly even if he is making a modest $5.3 million? But who will take a reliever off your hands that has given up 42 hits in 29+ innings and has a 6.37 ERA? Jepsen has pitched one clean (no hits or walks) inning in his last 23 appearances going back to April 25th. The Twins may not get much in return but there are teams that would take a chance on Jepsen because it is not unheard of for players like Jepsen to turn their year around with a change in scenery and he is a free agent after this season. Even if the Twins can’t get anyone to take Jepsen than just dump him and you still win, there has to be some minor league pitcher in the Twins system that deserves a look.

UPDATE: Kevin Jepsen was designated for assignment on July 3, 2016.

How will the Twins fare in 2016

I know I am a bit late with my Minnesota Twins prediction this year and I blame it on the Panama Canal cruise that I returned from yesterday. In the 2016 Minnesota Twins I see a fun young team but a team that takes a small step back this season. The good news however; is that the lessons the younger players learn this year will help them to become solid contenders in 2017 and beyond.

einstein 2016

The most pleasant surprise this year will be the hitting of Eduardo Escobar who has finally taken over the shortstop role on a full-time basis and turns out to be a much better hitter than most expected. The biggest disappointment of the year will be the back-end of the Twins bullpen with Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen not performing up to their abilities, Jepsen due to injury and Perkins more due to attitude than anything else. What most had viewed as a strength going into 2016 turns out to actually be a weakness.

How about the AL Central Division? Here is how I see them in the standings come early October.

  1. Royals
  2. Tigers
  3. White Sox
  4. Twins
  5. Indians

GO TWINS!

 

The Twins 2015 Turkey of Year winner is:

Turkey CartoonHappy Thanksgiving! It is once again that time of the year to select our annual Twins Turkey of the Year winner. This year we get to select our seventh annual Twins Turkey of the Year award winner, who will be lucky number seven? As always we have plenty of blue-chip candidates to scrutinize, analyze, and reflect on. First off we need to narrow the list down to a manageable size.

Trevor Plouffe
Trevor Plouffe

Didn’t make the final fiveTrevor Plouffe – Trevor makes the list not because of bad hitting or fielding but he makes this list because he managed to make three outs on the base paths in just one game. In the June 19 game in which the Twins beat the Chicago Cubs 7-2 at Target Field, Plouffe seemingly forgot how to run the bases. Mike Berardino did a nice piece on it that you can read here. Plouffe went 2 for 4 with 4 RBI in a game the Twins won so everyone got some chuckles out of Plouffe’s misadventures but it was still a game that Plouffe will never forget. Box score.

Phil Hughes 2015Didn’t make the final fivePhil Hughes – In his first season with Minnesota in 2014 had a 3.52 ERA and a 16-10 record with a record-breaking BB9 of 0.7 for a team that won 70 games. In 2015 Hughes spend a month on the DL due to lower back issues and missed 32 games. Because of his injury he pitched just 155 innings versus 209+ in 2014 and had a 4.40 ERA with an 11-9 record when the Twins won 83 games. The only thing that Hughes was a league leader in was home runs allowed with 29. The Twins were so pleased with Hughes work that after the 2014 season ended that Hughes, 28, was rewarded with a three-year extension worth $42 million that brings his total contract value to $66 million over six years, including 2014 when he made $8 million. Hughes, who was slated to make $8 million in both 2015 and ’16, will now make $9.2 million each of those years before making $13.2 million per season from 2017-19. I sure hope that Hughes doesn’t turn out to be another money pit.

Glen Perkins 2015Didn’t make the final fiveGlen Perkins – You have to wonder why a closer who has made the AL All-Star team for the last three seasons was nominated for the 2015 Twins Turkey of the Year award and an opportunity to become the first two-time winner of this honor. That won’t happen this year because there were so many more qualified candidates so why is he even here? During the first three months of the season Perkins had 28 saves but from July 9 until the season ended opposing batters hit .348 off Perkins and he had a total of 4 saves, a 6.97 ERA and gave up 7 home runs in 20.2 innings and in the process lost his closer role to Kevin Jepsen. In 2014 Perkins had a similar meltdown from about mid August through the end of the season although he was shut down for the season on September 17.  From August 19 until the season ended Perkins had a 9.64 ERA and allowed batters to hit .342 off him (not to mention giving up five home runs)  while he registered 3 saves and lost 3 games. Has Perkins who will be 33 when the 2016 season opens lost it? Perkins is kind of a Jeckle and Hyde personality. He has a reputation for being a big community guy in the limelight and in public but one on one with fans when there are no cameras around Perkins can be a snob and pretty mean to fans trying to get his autograph. But what gets me is that Perkins doesn’t bring up the fact that he is injured until he has a number of bad outings in a row and then he blames his injuries for his bad pitching. Perkins is all about Perkins and not exactly a team player or leader in my book.

Arcia
Arcia
Vargas
Vargas
Danny Santana
Danny Santana

Didn’t make the final five – troika of Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia – The Twins expected all three of these guys to win starting jobs in 2015 and they all failed miserably and yet the Twins improved by 13 wins from the previous season. If just one of these guys had the kind of season that was expected of them the Twins would have been playing playoff baseball in October. I know, I know, “if the bear hadn’t stopped to take a dump in the woods he would still be alive today.” All three of these guys will turn 25 in 2016 so it is too early to give up on them but at the same time their futures with the Twins have dimmed considerably. The Twins have already stated that Eduardo Escobar is the lead dog at shortstop going into 2016. The Twins are exploring selling Kennys Vargas to a team in Korea and Oswaldo Arcia is supposedly trade bait. It would be a shame if all three fail to become major league players with Minnesota. Each of them have shown they can be quality players in their rookie seasons but the sophomore year has proven to be much tougher. I hope the Twins hang on to these guys for at least one more season so they have another opportunity to prove they can help the Twins. And now we move on to the finalists!

Tim Stauffer
Tim Stauffer

Fourth runner-up – Tim Stauffer – The Twins signed Stauffer as a free agent on December 23, 2014 for $2.2 million and it made for a great Christmas gift for Stauffer but for the Twins it turned out to be lump of coal. The Twins said that they would give the 33 year-old Stauffer who had started just four games since 2011 an opportunity to make the starting rotation in the spring but he failed there so the Twins moved him to the bullpen. In April, Stauffer appeared in 8 games pitching 9.2 innings, allowing 16 hits, 6 walks, 10 runs, allowed opposing batters to hit .372 and put up a 8.38 ERA. To be fair I should mention he did strike out 2 of the 50 batters he faced. Stauffer went on the DL on May 1 for a “right intercostal strain” and was reactivated on May 22. Who recovers from an intercostal strain in just three weeks? Anyway, the Twins used Stauffer two times in May and three times in June before the Twins released him on June 17 and sent his butt packing. Stauffer eventually signed as a FA with the Mets. That was a quick $2.2 million down the crapper. I give the Twins credit for trying to upgrade the bullpen with this signing but this will certainly not go on anyone’s resume as one of their better finds.

Torii Hunter 2015Third runner-up – Torii Hunter – The Twin paid $10.5 million to free agent Torii Hunter to get his services for the past season. That is a lot of money to pay an outfielder who was starting his nineteenth big league season and would turn 40 at mid-season. Torii was the Twins number one selection and 20th overall in the 1993 draft. Technically, Torii was a compensation pick from the Cincinnati Reds after they signed Twins free agent pitcher John Smiley. The Twins also had a supplemental pick in round 1 number 33 overall for losing Smiley and they selected RHP Marc Barcelo but he never reached the big leagues. The Twins own pick was number 21 and they used that to select catcher Jason Varitek but he decided not to sign with Minnesota. That same year they received another first round supplemental pick in round 1 which was number 38 overall for the loss of Greg Gagne to and they used that pick on outfielder Kelcey Mucker who never reached the big leagues either. After being drafted in 1993 Hunter made his major league debut with the Twins on August 22, 1997 as a pinch runner in his only big league appearance that season. So why is Torii on the list after all this? He is here because he made a fool of himself and the Minnesota Twins during his news conference to announce his return to the Minnesota Twins after a seven year hiatus. Hunter responded to a question from Twins beat reporter Mike Berardino by calling the reporter a “prick.” Not once, twice, thrice but four times. You can see it here on the Deadspin video. Hunter is no rookie in front of a microphone and could have handled the situation much better versus creating a scene at an event to reintroduce him to Twins fans. Very unprofessional in my opinion for a person that was brought back not only to play right field but was brought back to help teach the Twins younger players how to act and play the game the right way in the major leagues. Shame on you Torii!

Joe Mauer 2015Second runner-upJoe Mauer – Mauer’s 12th season in a Twins uniform had its up’s and down’s, he played in a career high 158 games and had a career high 666 plate appearances but on the other side of the coin he had career lows in batting average by hitting .265 and OBP with a .338. In the last four seasons he has struck out 88, 89, 96 and 112 times as to compared to his previous high strike out mark of 64. The former MVP and six-time all-star hung up his catchers gear after the 2013 season primarily due to concussion issues and took over first base duties on a full-time basis. Joe and his wife Maddie also started a family in 2013 when Maddie gave birth to twin girls on July 24. Since 2013 Mauer’s batting skills have gone down hill quicker than Ingemar Stenmark. The question is why, is it just age, is it his personal life where all of a sudden his marriage and children become more important on his list of priorities (as they should) or was it giving up catching and moving to first base. No one knows the answer to that except Mauer himself but I think that Mauer saw himself as a Hall of Fame catcher and once he realized his catching career was over the game just wasn’t the same challenge it once was and subconsciously Mauer has lost interest in doing what it takes to be the best, and family time has moved up on his list of priorities. The problem is that Mauer’s $23 million salary chewed up about 23% of the teams opening day payroll, he is so even-tempered he never seems to show any emotion, he shows no outward signs of being a team leader and he is a local legend born in St. Paul. Right or wrong, the general public associates big money with leadership and Mauer has shown nothing in that regard. Twins fans want to see the team win and when you have a guy that hits 10 home runs, knocks in just 66 RBI hitting in the three hole and makes $23 million, you have a problem. Manager Paul Molitor had Mauer in the number 3 spot in the batting order 133 times this past season. Mauer has appeared in 1,453 games and he has started a game in the number 3 spot a total of 1,143 times and he has hit in the number 2 spot 228 times. Back in 2004 and 2005 he hit in the 6, 7 and 8 hole a total of 22 times. Yet, Molitor continues to say this off-season that there is no real reason not to have Mauer bat third. I can’t believe that Mauer would object to being put in a lower spot in the order to help the team win. If he does, then we have a real problem because the Twins are on the hook to pay Mauer who has a full no trade clause $23 million for the next three seasons. If Joe Mauer is in the three spot in the batting order in 2016 (unless he is on a tear) it will be on Paul Molitor and he will be high on next years Twins Turkey of the Year ballot and he should be updating his resume.

Ervin Santana 2015This years Twins Turkey of the Year runner-up isErvin Santana – Last December Ervin Santana agreed to a four-year deal with the Twins worth around $54 million. That would be the largest free agent contract in Twins history, narrowly topping last year’s four-year, $49 million deal with RHP Ricky Nolasco. So how did the right-handed throwing Santana repay the Twins? MLB announced on April 3, 2015 just days before the 2015 season started that Santana has been suspended for 80 games without pay leaving the Twins without their number two starter. Santana was suspended after testing positive for Stanozolol, a performance-enhancing substance. In a statement released through the players’ union, Santana said he did not know how the PED got into his system. Stanozolol is by far one of the most popular anabolic steroids of all time. This is an anabolic steroid that has gained worldwide media attention numerous times. It was the Stanozolol hormone that made headlines during the 1988 Olympics when Ben Johnson was stripped of his medal, and has been linked to the MLB more times than can be counted. It is important to take stanozolol regularly to get the most benefit. If that is the case then how could Santana not know that he ingested it? If you know you are in line to sign a big contract why would you take a chance and take anabolic steroids? Questions only Santana can answer. The good news? It saved the Twins $6.75 million but the bad news is that it probably cost the Twins a playoff spot. The Twins have Santana for the next three years plus another possible option year, Santana better start paying back some of the faith the Twins placed in him.

Ricky Nolasco 2015The Twins 2015 Turkey of the Year winner in a landslide is pitcher Ricky Nolasco. The Minnesota Twins announced on December 3, 2013 that they have signed free agent right-handed pitcher Ricky Nolasco to a four-year contract worth $49 million with a club option that could vest in 2018. Twins fans were ecstatic, this was the biggest free agent deal the Twins had ever done and it was for a starting pitcher. What could go wrong? Nolasco will earn a guaranteed $12 million salary in each year of the contract (2014-2017). Nolasco was 6-12 with a 5.38 ERA in 27 starts in 2014. Nolasco missed 32 games with right elbow soreness that season by spending July 7 through September 15 on the disabled list. This past season Nolasco had a deceiving 5-2 record with a 6.75 ERA. In 37.1 innings Nolasco gave up 50 hits and walked 14 more while striking out 35. It seems Nolasco can’t stay healthy, in his first trip to the DL this year from April 11 through May 2 for right elbow inflammation, he missed 21 games. His next trip to the DL lasted from June 4 to September 25 for a right ankle impingement issue which caused him to miss 103 games. When he returned from his second trip to the DL, Nolasco appeared in 2 games, relieving in one and starting the other. In those two games he pitched a total of 4.2 innings, allowed 8 earned runs, walked four, and allowed 6 hits, two of them were home runs. On the plus side, he struck out 7 batters. WOW! I wonder what he can do for an encore! I sure hope we Twins fans get more than what Nolasco has shown us so far for that $49 million that Jim Pohlad spent to get him to come to Minnesota. So far all Nolasco has given us are excuses.

 

 

Previous Twins Turkey of Year Winners

2014 – Outfielder Aaron Hicks
2013 – Twins President Dave St. Peter
2012 – Twins owner Jim Pohlad
2011 – Catcher Joe Mauer
2010 – Infielder Brendan Harris
2009 – Pitcher Glen Perkins
 

 

HAPPY THANKSGIVING

 

Twins trade for reliever Kevin Jepsen

 

Kevin Jepsen
Kevin Jepsen
Alexis Tapia
Alexis Tapia

The MLB trading deadline came and went and a number of big name ballplayers are changing uniforms but don’t look for any of those big name players here in Twins Territory. The Twins however; weren’t shutout in this years trading frenzy as Twins GM Terry Ryan swung a deal with the Tampa Rays for 31 year-old right-handed reliever Kevin Jepsen and in turn the Twins gave up minor league right-handed pitchers Chih-Wei Hu and Alexis Tapia.

Miracle All-Star Chih-Wei Hu finally catching his breath

Kevin Jepsen was a Anaheim Angels second round pick in 2002 and and signed by scout Todd Blyleven. Jepsen made his big league debut in September of 2008 as a 24 year-old and pitched for the Angels from 2008 through 2014 before being traded to the Tampa Rays for outfielder Matt Joyce.

A Tampa web site Rayscoloredglasses.com had this to say about Jepsen –

“Jepsen’s ERA in 46 appearances and 41.2 innings with the Rays was a shiny 2.81, but that really doesn’t tell the full story. His strikeout to walk ratio was just 1.70-to-1 as his 7.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 were all his worst since 2011. His stuff remains promising–a mid-90’s fastball and a hard curveball–but his arsenal simply hasn’t been sharp often enough. His curve remains a good pitch, but he has never been great at throwing it for strikes and that especially became a problem as his fastball command withered. FIP, which estimates what a pitcher’s luck-neutral ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs, pegs Jepsen as just a 4.13 ERA pitcher.”

Hopefully a change of scenery will help Jepsen because the Twins can certainly use bullpen help. Jepsen has a career ERA of 3.80 with a 1.35 WHIP and a 15-23 won/lost mark. His career KO/9 is 8.5 but he also has a 3.6 BB/9. Jepsen is making $3 million plus change this season and can’t become a free agent until after the 2016 season.