Tag: Jason Marquis

Some historical Twins pitch to contact pitchers

The pitchers on this list had to have pitched at least 25 innings during their stay in Minnesota and it is sorted in “on base %”  (OBP) order.

Johnson, Adam ML debut 07162001

Rk Player OBP IP From To G GS W L SV H BB SO ERA BA
1 Adam Johnson .450 26.1 2001 2003 9 4 1 3 0 40 14 17 10.25 .360
2 Brett Merriman .445 44.0 1993 1994 34 0 1 2 0 54 37 24 8.39 .314
3 Bryan Oelkers .437 34.1 1983 1983 10 8 0 5 0 56 17 13 8.65 .376
4 Sean Bergman .436 68.0 2000 2000 15 14 4 5 0 111 33 35 9.66 .374
5 Jason Marquis .434 34.0 2012 2012 7 7 2 4 0 52 14 12 8.47 .371
6 Vance Worley .427 48.2 2013 2013 10 10 1 5 0 82 15 25 7.21 .381
7 Greg Harris .415 32.2 1995 1995 7 6 0 5 0 50 16 21 8.82 .355
8 Steve Carlton .411 52.2 1987 1988 13 8 1 6 0 74 28 25 8.54 .332
9 Sidney Ponson .409 37.2 2007 2007 7 7 2 5 0 54 17 23 6.93 .335
10 Scott Klingenbeck .408 77.0 1995 1996 28 7 1 3 0 111 34 42 8.30 .339
11 Bob Gebhard .408 39.0 1971 1972 30 0 1 3 1 53 24 26 6.00 .317
12 Erik Bennett .402 27.1 1996 1996 24 0 2 0 1 33 16 13 7.90 .306
13 John Pacella .402 51.2 1982 1982 21 1 1 2 2 61 37 20 7.32 .299
14 Dan Perkins .401 86.2 1999 1999 29 12 1 7 0 117 43 44 6.54 .326
15 Jack Savage .397 26.0 1990 1990 17 0 0 2 1 37 11 12 8.31 .339
16 Pedro Hernandez .392 56.2 2013 2013 14 12 3 3 0 80 23 29 6.83 .338
17 Mike Lincoln .391 97.0 1999 2000 26 19 3 13 0 138 39 42 7.70 .335
18 Erik Schullstrom .387 60.0 1994 1995 46 0 0 0 1 79 27 34 6.00 .317
19 Dan Schatzeder .386 54.0 1987 1988 40 1 3 2 0 72 23 37 5.50 .321
20 Danny Fife .385 56.1 1973 1974 14 7 3 2 0 64 33 21 5.43 .286
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/30/2015.

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Twins Turkey of the Year – 2012

The Minnesota Twins won 66 games in 2012, three more victories than they managed to put in the win column in 2011 and they again finished in last place in the American League Central division. Only three Twins teams have finished with worse records over the Twins 52 year existence in Minnesota, the 1982 team finished with a 60-102 record, the 2011 team finished 63-99, and the 1999 crew put up a 63-97 record. 2012 makes two years in a row with a finish of dead last in the division and only the second time in their history they have finished last two years in a row matching the 1981-1982 teams. Back in 1981 and 1982 everyone knew the Twins were a bad ballclub in full rebuilding mode but the current club does not see itself the same way. When the 2011 Twins team went 63-99 and barely dodged the 100 loss mark, team management wasted no time blaming it on all the injuries, truth be told, they did have a lot of injuries but still it seemed clear to me and many others that the Twins were in a dowward spiral. Twins starting pitching totally imploded in 2012 and the team used 12 different starting pitchers with only one getting more than 19 starts and that was Scott Diamond who started the season in AAA Rochester and still ended up starting 27 times.

When you look at some of the players on the 2012 team you can certainly find a number of deserving qualifiers for the 2012 Twins Turkey of the Year award. Lets take a look at some of candidates:

The fifth runner-up is starter Francisco Liraiano. After another frustrating start the Twins had seen enough and sent him packing to a division rival, the Chicago White Sox.

The fourth runner-up is starting pitcher Nick Blackburn. Blackie got off to a 1-4 start and then took a short trip to the DL from mid May to early June. Between June 6 and August 17 Blakburn returned to the rotation starting 12 games going 3-5 with 97 hits in 65.1 inning and a 6.89 ERA. The numbers were so bad that in spite of his $4.75 million salary the Twins sent him to AAA Rochester for the remainder of the season.

Third runner-up is another member of the starting rotation, recent free agent signee Jason Marquis. After personal issues delayed the start of his season, Marquis started 7 games between April 18 and May 20th allowing 52 hits in 34 innings going 2-4 with a 8.47 ERA and the Twins quickly released Marquis.

The second runner-up is starter Carl Pavano. With opening day in 2012 just around the corner reports surfaced that starter Pavano was facing a bizarre legal distraction. According to myrecordjournal.com, “police in Southington, Connecticut were investigating allegations that a high school classmate of Pavano’s, Christian Bedard, threatened to reveal an alleged homosexual relationship they had and to write a book about it unless Pavano apologized to him and bought him an SUV”. Pavano ended up making 11 starts going 2-5 and gave up 80 hits in 63 innings and posted a 6.00 ERA before going on the DL on June 4th and spending the rest of the season there. Another $8.5 million down the drain there.

This years Twins Turkey of the Year runner-up is Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka who was in the second year as a Minnesota Twin making $3 million and he played in a total of 3 games in a Twins uniform going 0 for 12 and committing two errors. In spite of the fact that Nishioka was not able to hit or field in the majors, he considered himself a star and during the two spring training’s that I watched him participate in  you could usually find him and his interperter out in one of the back fields working out on his own instead of working out with his teammates. The Twins released him 2 years into a 3 year contract at his request but yet no one from the Twins organization has stepped forward and said who scouted him and how they arrived at the conclusion that Nishioka was a big league player. Former GM Bill Smith took the sword for that one but he should have not been the only one.

Jim Pohlad inherited the Minnesota Twins when his father Carl Pohlad passed away in January 2009. As has been stated many times, the Pohlad family has consistently followed a model of keeping the annual player payroll pegged to 50 percent of team revenue. The Twins have played in their spanking new Target Field ballpark since 2010 but their last two seasons there have been full blown disasters as far as the teams record is concerned.  However; the Twins loyal fans kept pouring through the turnstiles although in 2012 attedance has seriously started to lag. As owner and CEO Jim Pohlad is ultimetly responsible for the entire operation. Pohlad, team president Dave St. Peter and GM Terry Ryan have all stated that everyone is doing everything possible to get the team back on the right track, but then again what else would you expect them to say. All three have stated at different times that it is not all about money and that money does not insure a winning team and they throw out examples of teams that have gone to the playoffs in the past with low payrolls. I understand that, but to win on a consistent basis like the team ownership states is their goal, you need to have good players and good players cost money. Over the years the Twins have done what they could with the revenue they had to work with and a couple of times they won it all and I congratulate them for that. The team has taken great pride in playing ball “the Twins way”, promoting from within and making a few trades now and then and that has worked for them in the past, but times have changed and their revenue situation has changed and the Twins management group is stuck in the same old ways of doing business. Back when arbitration and free agency came into play, team owner Calvin Griffith saw the writing on the wall but could not adapt to the new business model and was forced to sell the team to Carl Pohlad. The Twins have said over the years that signing free agents is not the way to the promised land and yet we have watched the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, the Detroit Tigers and numerous other teams buy their way into the playoffs. I know this team does not get the revenue that the Yankees and many other teams get but you have to pull your head out of the sand and accept that change is necessary and that the business model for your team needs to change if you want to be successful year in and year out. When I was a manager in the IT business world I had a budget to work with and when I first started managing I did whatever I could to stay within my budget thinking that the more I stayed under the budget the better a manager I was. I quickly was shown the error of my ways being told that the money I saved during the year was nice but had I spent the money I was allotted in my budget I probably could have improved the service to our existing customers and/or brought in new customers but that did not happen because I chose to play it safe and save a few dollars. You need to spend money to make money, with all the businesses that the Pohlad’s own and run as well as they do, why don’t they run their baseball team the same way? If Jim Pohlad really wanted to field a winning team, he would, but he would need to spend more money to do so but apparently he is satisified with his current rate of return and doesn’t feel the need to change the way the team is currently run.

Excluding the United States  government, we all have budgets that we need to live with but a budget is just “an estimate of income and expenditure for a set period of time.” Our family home has provided us with a safe and comfortable place to live for a number of years but it has only done so because we have budgeted a certain amount of money annually to keep the house in as  good a condition as possible. We know that as time goes by that certain aspects of the home start to show some age and slowly start to deteriorate and need to be replaced. A baseball team is no different, you constantly need to spend money on parts that need to be replaced and we do that with money budgeted for that purpose. But now and then a time comes along in all home owners lives where a major problem arises, something totally out of the blue. Just when things were chugging along as you think they should a sudden storm arrives and high winds tear part of your roof off, the hail smashes gapping holes in your siding and a tree smashes your fence. What the heck is up with that? We sure didn’t plan on that happening and it is going to cost a lot of money to fix the home to make it leveable again but yet our budget does not allow for it. On the other hand, if we don’t fix the roof the rest of the home is going to be destroyed and a huge investment will be lost. The Twins suffered such a storm in 2011 but instead of taking the time to fix it properly they threw a tarp on the roof and told themselves that all is good with the world once again. Then in 2012 when they found that their roof was leaking like a sieve they tried some cheap do-it-yourself remedies that did not accomplish much. There is an old saying that goes something like this, “if you find yourself in a hole, the first thing you need to do is to stop digging the hole deeper.” The Twins have to do what a logical home owner would do, they have to find and spend the money necesssary to fix their problem regardless if their current budget allows for it or not. You need to find the money to fix the roof and figure out how you can pay for it. It might mean selling something you can live without or you can take money that you has set aside for other purposes but you need to fix that roof or your investment is down the tubes. The Twins find themselves in such a dilema, their starting pitching staff needs to be replaced or the rest of their players are just wasting their time and soon the team will find fewer and fewer butts in the Target Field seats. It is time for this years Twins Turkey of the Year, Twins owner Jim Pohlad to step up and explain to president Dave St. Peter and GM Terry Ryan that he has their back with the necessary cash and they need to do whatever is necessary to fix the ailing Twins and put them back on the winning track or he will find someone else that can.

Previous Twins Turkey of the Year winners:

2011 – Joe Mauer

2010 – Brendan Harris

2009 – Glen Perkins

Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

2012 Little League World Series underway

The 2012 Little League World Series began play in South Williamsport, Pennsylvania on August 16 and will culminate with the championship game on August 26. This year is the 66th playing of the Little League World Series. The sixteen-team tournament has eight International teams (Caribbean, Japan, Canada, Europe, Mexico, Asia-Pacific, Middle East & Africa and Latin America) and eight U.S. teams (New England, Northwest, Southeast, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, West, Southwest, and Midwest). In 2011, the Ocean View Little League of Huntington Beach, California defeated Hamamatsu Minami Little League of Hamamatsu City, Japan 2–1 in the World Championship game.

Three former Minnesota Twins players have participated in this grand event.

  • Minnesota Twins prospect Clete Thomas was a member of the 1996 Panama City, Florida club that advanced to United States final before losing to Cranston, Rhode Island.
  • Minnesota Twins infielder Sean Burroughs, who was the ninth overall pick in the 1998 First-Year Player Draft was a member of both the 1992 and 1993 Long Beach, California teams that won back-to-back Little League World Series titles.
  • Jason Marquis a Twins pitcher earlier this season and currently with the San Diego Padres was a member of the Staten Island, NY 1991 LLWS team.

Six Little League teams from Minnesota that have gone on to play in the Little League Baseball World Series. Players for each team are typically the “All Stars” from the geographic area of each league. The players are chosen after the Little League regular season has ended. The Minnesota teams that have participated are listed below. Most of these Minnesota teams have been able to get past the first round, but no Minnesota team has made it beyond round two of Little League Baseball World Series play.

1963 – Duluth Central LL team from the Duluth area
1985 East Tonka LL from the Minnetonka area
1994 Brooklyn Center American LL from the Brooklyn Center area
1995 Little Lakes West LL from the Arden Hills area
2007 Coon Rapids National LL from the Coon Rapids area
2010 Plymouth-New Hope LL from the Plymouth area
 

The only two players  to participate in a Little League World Series, a College World Series and a MLB World Series are Ed Vosberg and Jason Varitek.

 

Where do starting pitchers come from?

The Twins starting pitching situation this year is in dire straights. Coming into the 2012 season the Twins starting pitchers were expected to be Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis. Not a great group of starters by any means but you had to think they would keep the Twins near the .500 mark. But things don’t always go as planned and after Monday’s game the Twins have played 35 games and their record stands at 10-25, the worst record in all of baseball.

The Twins starters are rated as last in the American League with a 7-20 record and a 6.30 ERA. The starters are pitching just slightly over 5 innings per start with no complete games. Opposing batters are hitting .315 off the Twins starting staff and the the next closest starting rotation is the Yankees starting staff and opponents are hitting them at a .282 clip, a huge difference. On the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago White Sox opponents are only hitting .226 against the Mighty Whities starters. Twins starters have given up 234 hits in just 187 innings. If you combine the hits and the walks, the Twins starting rotation has a 1.55 WHIP. Twins starters have also given up the most runs, most home runs and they have struck out the least amount of opposing hitters.

So why is Minnesota starters pitching so bad as compared to the AL teams? Where did the Twins starting pitchers come from? I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the starting staffs of the AL teams and see what we come up with.

New York Yankees

 1. CC Sabathia (31) – signed by the Yankees as a free agent in December 2008. Was originally a 1st round pick, 20th over all of the Cleveland Indians in 1998 and made his major league debut in 2001.

2. Ivan Nova (25) – signed by the Yankees as an amateur free agent in 2004, drafted by the San Diego Padres as a Rule 5 pick in December 2008 and returned to the Yankees in 2009 and made his major league debut in 2010.

3. Hiroki Kuroda (37) – signed by the Yankees as a free agent in January 2012. Was originally signed by the Dodgers as a free agent in December 2007 and made his major league debut in 2008.

4. Phil Hughes (26) – drafted by Yankees in round 1 and 23 over all in 2004 and made his big league debut in 2007.

5. Andy Pettite (39) – drafted by the Yankees in round 22 of the 1990 draft and made big league debut in 1995.

 Boston Red Sox

1. Jon Lester (28) – drafted by Boston in the 2nd round of the 2002 amatuer free draft and debuted in 2006.

2. Clay Buchholz (27) – drafted by Boston in the 1st round and 42 pick over all in the 2005 amatuer free agent draft and made his big league debut in 2007.

3. Felix Doubront (24) – signed by Boston as an amateur free agent in May 2005 and made his big league debut in  2010.

4. Josh Beckett (31) – acquired via trade. Originally a 1st round pick and 2nd over all by the Florida Marlins in 1999. Made big league debut in 2001.

5. Daniel Bard (27) – drafted by Boston in 1st round and 28 pick over all in 2006 and made big league debut in 2009.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Jake Arrieta (26) – Orioles 5th round pick in 2007 and made big league debut in 2010.

2. Tommy Hunter (25) – acquired in a trade and was originally a 1st round pick and 54th over all of the Texas Rangers in the 2007 amateur free agent draft and made his big league debut in 2008.

3. Jason Hammel (29) – acquired in a trade and was originally a 10th round pick by Tampa in 2002. Made his big league debut in 2006.

4. Wei-Yin Chen (26) – signed as a free agent in January 2012 and made his big league debut in 2012.

5. Brian Matusz (25) – drafted by Orioles in 1st round and 4th over all in 2008 and made his big league debut in 2009.

Tampa Rays

1. Jamie Shields (30) – drafted in round 16 by Tampa in 2000 and made his big league debut in  2006.

2. David Price (26) – drafted 1st over all in the 2007 draft by Tampa. Big league debut in 2008.

3. Jeremy Hellickson (25) – A Tampa 4th round pick in the 2005 draft. Made big league debut in 2010.

4. Matt Moore (22) – Tampa’s 8th round pick in 2007 and made his big league debut in 2011.

5. Jeff Nieman (29) – Tampa’s 1st round pick and 4th over all in 2004. Made big league debut in 2008.

Toronto Blue Jays

1. Henderson Alvarez (22) – signed by Toronto as an amateur free agent in 2006. Big leaqgue debut in 2011.

2. Ricky Romero (27) – 1st round pick by Toronto and 6th over all in 2005. Big league debut in 2009.

3. Brandon Morrow (27) – acquired in trade from Seattle who picked Morrow in the 1st round and 5th over all in 2006. Big league debut in 2007.

4. Kyle Drabek (24) – acquired in trade from Philly where he was their 1st round pick and 8th over all in 2006. Big league debut in 2010.

5. Drew Hutchinson (21) – Toronto 15th round pick in 2009 and made big league debut in 2012.

Texas Rangers

1. Derek Holland (25) – Texas 25th round pick in 2006, big league debut in 2009.

2. Colby Lewis (32) – Texas 1st round pick and 38th over all in 1999. Big league debut in 2002.

3. Yu Darvish (25) – purchased from Japan and signed as free agent in January 2012. Debuted same year.

4. Matt Harrison (26) – acquired in trade from Atlanta. He was the Braves 3rd round pick in 2003. Made debut in majors in 2008.

5. Neftali Feliz (24) – acquired in trade from Atlanta. He was signed by the Braves as an amateur free agent in 2005 and made big league debut in 2009.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

1. Jered Weaver (29) – Angels 1st round pick and 12th over all in 2004. Big league debut in 2006.

2. Dan Haren (31) – acquired via trade. Was a St. Louis Cardinals 2nd round pick in 2001. Big league debut in 2003.

3. CJ Wilson (31) – signed as a free agent in December 2011. Rangers 5th round pick in 2001 and made big league debut in 2005.

4. Ervin Santana (29) – signed by Angels as an amateur free agent in 2000 and made big league debut in 2005.

5. Jerome Williams (30) – signed as free agent in June 2011. Originally picked in round 1 and 39th over all by San Francisco Giants in 1999. Big league debut in 2003.

Oakland A’s

1. Bartolo Colon (39) – signed as free agent in January 2012. Originally signed by the Cleveland Indians as amateur free agent in 1993. Big league debut in 1997.

2. Brandon McCarthy (28) – signed as free agent in 2010. Originally picked by the White Sox in round 17 in 2002. Big league debut in 2005.

3. Tommy Milone (25) – acquired via a trade with Washington. Was originally a Nats 10th round pick in 2008. Big league debut in 2011.

4. Jarrod Parker ar(23) – acquired in a trade with Arizona. Was originally drafted by D-Backs in 1st round and 9th over all in 2007. Big league debut in 2011.

5. Tyson Ross (25) – drafted by A’s in 2nd round 2008. Big league debut in 2010.

Seattle Mariners

1.  Felix Hernandez (26) – signed by Seattle as an amateur free agent in 2002 and made big league debut in 2005.

2. Jason Vargas (29) – acquired in a 3 team trade in 2008. Was originally a Florida Marlins 4th round pick in 2004. Big league debut in 2005.

3. Kevin Millwood (37) – signed as free agent in January 2012. Originally a Braves 11th round pick in 1993. Big league debut in 1997.

4. Blake Beavan (23) – acquired in a trade from Texas. Originally a Rangers 1st round pick and 17th over all in 2007. Big league debut in 2011.

5. Hector Noesi (25) – acquired in trade with the Yankees. Originally signed by Yankees in 2004 as an amateur free agent. Big league debut in 2011.

Kansas City Royals

1. Bruce Chen (35) – signed with KC as a free agent in 2009. Was originally an Atlanta Braves amateur free signee in 1993. Big league debut in 1998.

2. Luke Hochevar (28) – was drafted by Royals in 1st round and 1st over all in 2006. Big league debut in 2007.

3. Danny Duffy (23) – Royals 3rd round pick in 2007. Big league debut in 2011.

4. Jonathan Sanchez (29) – Acquired in trade with the Giants. Originally was the Giants 27 round pick in 2004 and made big league debut in 2006.

5. Felipe Paulino (28) – Purchased from Colorado Rockies in May 2011. Was originally signed by the Astros as an amateur free agent in 2001. Big league debut in 2007.

Detroit Tigers

1. Justin Verlander (27) – was the Tigers 1st round pick and 2nd over all in the 2004 draft. He made his big league debut in 2005.

2. Rick Porcello (23) – was the Tigers 1st round pick and 27th over all in 2007. Made his big league debut in 2009.

3. Max Scherzer (27) – acquired in trade with Arizona. Was originally drafted in 1st round and 11th over all by Arizona in 2006. Made his big league debut in 2008.

4. Doug Fister (28) – acquired in trade with Seattle. Was originally picked by the Mariners in round 7 of the 2006 draft. Made MLB debut in 2009.

5. Drew Smyly (23) – was the Tigers 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft. Made big league debut in 2012.

Cleveland Indians

1. Justin Masterson (27) – acquired in a 2009 trade with the Red Sox. Was originally a 2nd round pick by the Red Sox in 2006 and made big league debut in 2008.

2. Derek Lowe (39) – acquired in a 2011 trade with  the Atlanta Braves. Was originally picked in the 8th round of the 1991 draft and debuted in the big leagues in 1997.

3. Ubaldo Jiminez (28) – acquired in a trade with Colorado. Originally signed as a amateur free agent back in 2001 with the Rockies. Made big league debut in 2006.

4. Josh Tomlin (27) – was drafted by the Indians in the 19th round of the 2006 draft. Made big league debut in 2010.

5. Jeanmar Gomez (24) – signed as an amateur free agent with the Indians in 2005. Made his big league debut in 2010.

Chicago White Sox

1. Jake Peavy (31) – acquired in a trade with the Padres. Originally picked by San Diego in round 15 of the 1999 draft. Big league debut in 2002.

2. John Danks (27) – acquired in a trade with Texas. Was originally a 1st round pick and 9th over all in 2003. Big league debut in 2007.

3. Gavin Floyd (29) – acquired in a trade with the Phillies. Was originally a Phillies 1st round pick and 4th over all in 2001. Made big league debut in 2004.

4. Chris Sale (23) – drafted by the White Sox in the 1st round and 13th pick over all in 2010 draft. Made big league debut just 2 months after being drafted and after pitching in just 11 minor league games.

5. Philip Humber (29) – selected off waivers from Oakland in January 2011. Originally drafted in 2004 in the 1st round and 3rd over all pick by the New York Mets. Made big leage debut in 2006.

Minnesota Twins

1. Francisco Liriano (28) – acquired in trade with San Francisco in November 2003. Was originally signed for the Giants as an amateur free agent in 2000. Made big league debut in 2005.

2. Carl Pavano (36) – acquired in a trade with the Cleveland Indians in 2009. Originally drafted in the 13th round by the Red Sox in 1994. Made big league debut in 1998.

3. Nick Blackburn (30) – drafted by the Twins in round 29 of the 2001 draft. Made big league debut in 2007.

4. Jason Marquis (33) – signed by Twins as a free agent in December 2011. Was originally an Atlanta Braves 1st round pick and 35th over all in 1996. Made big leaague debut in 2006.

5. Liam Hendriks (23) – signed by the Twins as an amateur free agent in 2007 and made his big league debut in 2011.

6. Anthony Swarzak (26) – drafted by the Twins in round 2 of the 2004 amateur draft and made his big league debut in 2009.

7. Scott Diamond (25) – A Rule 5 pick by the Twins from the Atlanta Braves in December 2010. Was originally signed by the Braves as an amateur free agent in 2007. Made big league debut in 2011.

8. PJ Walters (27) – Signed with the Twins as a free agent in December 2011. Was originally a St. Louis Cardinals 11th round pick in 2006 and made big league debut in 2009.

9. Scott Baker (30) – out for the 2012 season with TJ surgery. Was a Twins 2nd round pick in 2003 and made big league debut in 2005.

The Twins current starting rotation of Pavano, Marquis, Blackburn, Diamond and Walters is made up of  one 1st round pick, an 11th rounder, a 13th rounder, a 29th rounder and an amateur free agent.

If you look at the rest of the current 5 man starting rotations for the 13 other AL teams you have a total of 65 pitchers and here is how they break down.

25 of the 65 (38%) were first round picks

12 of the 65 (18%) were signed as amateur free agents

5 of the 65 (8%) were 2nd round picks

3 of the 65 (5%) were Japanese baseball free agents

2 of the 65 (3%) were 3rd round picks

2 of the 65 (3%) were 4th round picks

2 of the 65 (3%) were 5th round picks

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 7th round pick

2 of the 65 (3%) were 8th round picks

2 of the 65 (3%) were 10th round picks

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 11th round pick

2 of the 65 (3%) were 15th round picks

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 16th round pick

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 17th round pick

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 19th round pick

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 22nd round pick

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 25th round pick

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 27th round pick

The AL team with the most first round picks in the starting rotation is the Chicago White Sox with four starters in Danks, Floyd, Humber and Sale and the Cleveland Indians are the only team with no first rounders in their starting rotation. But just because you are a first round pick does not mean that you will make the teams starting rotation that drafted you as only 13 of the 25 or only 52% of the first round picks end up starting for the teams that drafted them in round 1. Of course many other 1st rounders either do not make the starting rotation or do not make it to the big leagues at all.

Since 1972 the Minnesota Twins have drafted 27 pitchers in the first round, 8 out of high school and 19 out of college. Three of their picks did not sign with the team. RHP Dick Ruthevan was picked in round 1 and 8 over all in 1972 but did not sign and went on to start 332 big league games. RHP Tim Belcher was the Twins 1st round and the first over all pick in 1983 but he did not sign and he went on to start 373 big league games. The Twins drafted RHP Derek Parks in round 1 and 10th over all in 1986 and turned him into a catcher. The Twins picked RHP Aaron Heilman in round 1 and 31st over all in 200o but Heilman did not sign and went on to start 25 big league games pitching maninly in relief. This may be hard to believe but since the draft started in 1972, the most career starts that any Twins 1st round pick has ever had in a Twins uniform is 45 and that pitcher was Willie Banks who the Twins picked in round 1 and number 3 over all in 1987. Banks started 45 games with a 16-17 record before being traded to the Chicago Cubs for pitcher Dave Stevens and catcher Matt Walbeck. The next higest number of starts for a Twins 1st rounder is 44 and that belongs to Minnesota native Glen Perkins who is currently a Twins top reliever. Only 10 of 27 first round pitchers picked by Minnesota in the first round ever started a game in a Twins uniform. Only 5 of 27 Twins first rounders have started 100 or more career big league games and they are Dick Ruthven, Tim Belcher, Todd Ritchie, Mark Redman, and Matt Garza. 15 of the 27 Twins first round pitchers have never started a single big league game.

With that kind of a record in taking pitchers in the first round, I have to wonder if the Twins should even try. Then again, you could argue that they are due to get a good one…..

How do you fix this?

The Twins pitching this season has been dismal and as I took a look at the Twins pitching stats during last nights 11-2 drubbing at the hands of the Boston Red Sox I have to wonder what Terry Ryan, Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson can do to fix the problem. Before the Twins had even played one game that counted this season they had already lost reliever Joel Zumaya and starter Scott Baker to Tommy John surgery. Losing Baker who I thought was the Twins top starting pitcher was a serious blow to a team that already had pitching woes. The 29 year-old Baker had started 159 games with a 63-48 record over the last 7 seasons with a 4.15 ERA and could be counted on to keep the Twins in the game when he was on the mound. With Baker out for the season the Twins went in to the 2012 season with a starting five composed of Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis, Nick Blackburn and either Anthony Swarzak or Liam Hendriks. Liriano who was dubbed “the Franchise” back in 2006 when he went 12-3 has been a colossal disappointment this season and now is out of the rotation to clear his head after four terrible starts when he has gone 0-4 with a 11.02 ERA and 2.36 WHIP in 16.1 innings and giving up a league leading 20 earned runs. A 2.36 WHIP, that is incredible, 2.36 runners every inning. The Twins seem to be perplexed with what to do with Liriano and plan to have him skip a start and work on the side. Personally, I think the best thing they can do with Liriano at this point is send him back to the minors and have him pitch until he proves he can get big league hitters out. Everyone keeps saying that Liriano has “great stuff” and maybe he does and maybe he doesn’t but the bottom line is that right now he is not a major league pitcher and he has no business being in the big leagues. I would rather see the Twins call up some one from the minors and have them learn how to pitch in the majors than send Liriano out start after start with little to no hope of improvement. It is not all about physical ability, you have to understand how to pitch in the big leagues and I’m afraid that Francisco Liriano may never attain that stature. Pavano and Marquis are both veterans and you get what you see with these two, journeymen at best that are filling out a starting rotation. The sinker-balling Nick Blackburn is no star but can fill the back-end of a starting rotation. I am not sure what Liam Hendriks can do in the majors but I am willing to send him out every fifth day and see what he has to offer. Swarzak is probably best suited for the role he is in right now, the long man in the pen. The 25 year-old lefty Scott Diamond who was a Rule 5 pick-up from the Atlanta Braves in December of 2010 is tearing it up in Rochester with a 4-0 mark and a 1.07 ERA in four starts is worth calling up for a big league shot. What have you got to lose?

The Twins have to do something, but what? They are 5-13 and 5.5 games out and we are still in April. How much improvement can Gardy and Ryan expect from a pitching staff that is putting up these kinds of numbers?

Twins Opponent
IP 146 151
H 161 148
R 91 63
ER 87 56
HR 26 13
BB 42 47
SO 86 117
ERA 5.36 3.34
WHIP 1.39 1.29
Oppenent batting avg. .283 .256

How they will finish in 2012

 

Mr. Einstein

With the 2012 baseball season just around the corner, if you don’t count that stupid two game series that the A’s and Mariners played and split in Japan, it is time for us here in Twins Trivia to look into the crystal ball and see what is in store for us this season. They say that baseball is a simple game, all you need to do is hit the ball, pitch the ball and pick-up the ball but I thought I would run it by Mr. Einstein just to be sure.

East

 1. Tampa Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
 

West

1. Los Angeles Angels 
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A’s
 

Central

1. Detroit Tigers (91-71)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80)
3. Minnesota Twins (78-84)
4. Kansas City Royals (76-86)
5. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
 

The Detroit Tigers are far and way the best team in the division and should be up by 10 games at the All-Star break and have a cake walk the rest of the way. However; having picked the Tigers to win the AL Central, the team is certainly not without its problems. The Tigers defense if they continue to pursue going down the Miguel Cabrera at 3B path will be atrocious but I see manager Jim Leyland changing that plan before he gets out of April. But even after Leyland addresses the 3B situation, the Bengals still have defense problems at 1B, 2B, SS, and LF. It will be fun to watch the Tigers hit but when they are in the field it will be a totally different story. The Tiger bullpen is solid although there is no way in the world that closer Jose Valverde has another year in 2012 like he had in 2011. The Tigers other major issue is starting pitching where they have a reigning Cy Young award winner in Justin Verlander followed by Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and the Tigers just announced that Drew Smyly won the last starting spot.  Who is Drew Smyly? Fister, and Scherzer are workable starters on a pennant contender but Porcello and who ever the Tigers have slotted for number 5 will not cut the mustard and the Tigers are going to have to make some moves to fill those holes.

The Cleveland Indians continue to improve albeit very slowly and the team has worked hard to try to improve its starting rotation that includes Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jiminez, Derek Lowe, Jeanmar Gomez, and Josh Tomlin. Twins cast-off Kevin Slowey could not make this starting rotation. Not a great starting rotation, but I have seen a lot worse. The Indians offense lost Gardy Sizemore to injury once again but Sizemore’s best days are now behind him anyway so that is not as great a loss as some may think. On offense the Indians need outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to bounce back after an injury plagued 2011, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to continue to show improvement after a breakout season last year, 2B Jason Kipnis to show that he is for real, Michael Brantley needs to prove he is a legit lead-off hitter, Lonnie Chisenhall to hit to his potential and to earn his way back as the Indians starting 3B, and for 35-year-old Travis Hafner to stay healthy and hit like he can as the teams DH.

I like the Kansas City Royals a lot because of the nice young players they have like Eric Hosmer at 1B, former 3B and now outfielder Alex Gordon, Billy Butler as the DH, Alcides Escobar at SS, and 3B Mike Moustakas. The Royals took a serious blow to the gut when closer Jokaim Soria went down with an elbow issue and will require TJ surgery but maybe the Royals dodged a bullet if free agent signee Jonathan Broxton can bounce back and become a workable closer once again, a long shot to be sure but still, a chance. The Royals starting pitching is what really needs to take a step forward if this team is to become a contender. Luke Hochevar anchors the rotation but he still young and is slowly improving. Jonathan Sanchez who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants has some potential and could become their number 2 starter. Veteran Bruce Chen continues to get his 10-12 wins each year although I don’t know how and Felipe Paulino slides in as the fourth starter although he could miss the first part of the season. Paulino has control issues but he can also strikeout some hitters. The fifth spot is open and the Royals would like to see youngster Danny Duffy lock up that spot. The Royals need to find a way to improve their starting pitching before they can be considered a serious challenger.

I pick the Chicago White Sox to finish in the Central Division basement. The mighty whities are a high-priced team that has under performed and is old to boot. White Sox GM Ken Williams has shown over the last few years that he doesn’t have a clue on how to be a big league general manager and the sooner he is fired the sooner the White Sox can once again can become a contender. The White Sox let Ozzie Guillen go as manager and hired the totally inexperienced former 3B Robin Ventura to manage this motley crew. The Sox have some proven starting pitching in John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jake Peavy but Peavy is always hurt and you can’t count on him to be a solid contributor. Former Twins pitcher Philip Humber was a pleasant surprise for the Sox last season but he remains unproven. The Sox have moved the young fireballing Chris Sale out of the pen and into a starters role so his transition will be closely watched. Since the whities traded their closer Sergio Santos to Toronto during the off-season they are in need of a closer and it appears that Matt Thornton will start the season in that role but indications are that Addison Reed will take over the closers role before the 2012 season comes to a merciful end for the Chicago White Sox.

That bring us to the Minnesota Twins who unfortunately will finish third in this weak AL Central with a 78-84 record. 78 wins does not sound like much but it is a nice 15 win improvement after last years dismal showing. The Twins fired GM Bill Smith and put former GM Terry Ryan back in the driver’s seat but Ryan is driving a Chevy and Twins management is selling it as a BMW and this past off-season instead of going into a rebuilding mode after losing Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and several others, the team decided to try to plug some leaks, drop their payroll by $15 million and see if they can regain their 2010 form. They signed 38 career utility player Jamey Carroll to be their starting shortstop, they signed Josh Willingham to provide some power as a corner outfielder and catcher Ryan Doumit to provide some pop as the back-up catcher. Last season catcher Joe Mauer had a horrible season hitting .287 and playing in just 82 games due to some mysterious injuries that still have not been explained but Mauer has worked hard this spring and you have to think he is back to being the All-Star catcher he should be. 1B Justin Morneau was even worse, hitting .227 with four home runs and playing in 69 games due to a variety of injuries but his major issue was the concussion he suffered in Toronto the previous season. Morneau started spring training playing 1B but midway through spring training he was hitting under .100 and the team decided that Morneau would be the primary DH this season although he would still see time at 1B but I would expect him playing first base less than 30 times this season. Morneau caught fire with his bat but still seldom makes an appearance at 1B in Florida. The Twins need Morneau to hit like he can and to stay healthy but that might be asking a lot based on what Justin has shown the past few years. The second baseman, often injured Alexi Casilla is in a make it or break it season and he has to prove he can play 150+ games, something he has never done. He has already missing games in spring training due to a sore knee. The leader of the Twins “fun bunch” is 3B Danny Valencia who is coming off a “sophomore slump” season in 2011 both with his bat and in the field. Valencia has to start to field at 3B like he cares and to hit more for average versus trying to be that dead pull hitter that he showed in 2011. A little humility by Valencia wouldn’t hurt either, Danny is not God’s gift to baseball even though he seems to think he is. Denard Span has to prove that he is over his own concussion and neck woes and that the Twins can count on him to play day in and day out in centerfield because he has a lot of ground to cover when Willingham is in left and Trevor Plouffe or Ryan Doumit is playing in right. Right field is probably a platoon between Plouffe, Doumit and maybe even Ben Revere who has a throwing arm like a pop gun. The Twins starting pitching is shaky at best and that is kind of funny because going back just a few years the Twins thought their starting pitching was a strength and some bloggers thought we had too much starting pitching but that was just before Kyle Gibson was deemed to need TJ surgery and Alex Wimmers had no clue where home plate was. Francisco Liriano has had a super spring and he is in his contract year but no Twins starter has shown as much “Jekyll and Hyde” personality as Francisco has. One day the man pitches a no-hitter and the next time out he can’t string two good innings together. Scott Baker can be really good but you can also count on Scott Baker to hit the DL at least once each season and this year he will start the season on the DL. I find Baker an interesting pitcher because he makes his living pitching high in the strike zone. What drives me crazy with Baker is that the man never shows any emotion. Get mad, slam your glove down, anything, just show me you are alive Scott. Carl Pavano is one of those guys that goes out and throws 200 innings and gives up 2225 hits but keeps his team in the game. This coming from a guy that had a huge contract with the Yankees between 2005-2008 and was hurt year after year while pitching in just 26 games. Nick Blackburn owns the Twins number 4 starting spot and the sinkerballing right hander is starting his fifth season in the Twins starting rotation. Blackburn, a pitch to contact guy has started at least 26 games each season although his innings pitched have decreased the last two years from a career high of 205 in 2009. Blackburn is one of those guys that gives hitters a comfortable collar but then there are other games when he gives up hit after hit. Blackburn has pitched a few big games for the Twins and has seems to rise to the occasion. The last spot in the starting rotation belongs to newly acquired Jason Marquis a 33-year-old right hander beginning his 13 big league season and is a lot like Pavano, gives up a lot of hits but keeps his team deep into games. Not a stellar rotation by any means but when they pitch well, the Twins have a chance as Gardy might tell you. How about the relievers? Who knows, the Twins resigned Matt Capps to be their closer after Joe Nathan hit the trail for Texas. Capps is not one of the elite closers in the league but does a team that is destined to finish under .500 need an elite closer? I don’t think so and I think Capps can be a good character on this team. Minnesota native lefty Glen Perkins had a breakout season both on the pitching front and out of Gardy’s doghouse. Perkins was outstanding last season and was the Twins best pitcher most of the year. Brian Duensing moves to the bullpen after a disappointing year in the starting rotation in 2011 and he should do a good job there based on what he has shown there previously. Matt Maloney and Jared Burton, both former Redlegs appear to have earned bullpen jobs. Anthony Swarzak is the long guy in the pen and sometimes starter and that role seems to fit him well. The final bullpen spot is still to be determined with Jeff Gray and Alex Burnett still battling it out as spring training winds down. Kyle Waldrop was in the running for the final spot too but he ended up taking a spot on the DL bench.

Ryan did what he could to get more offense on the field but in the process he sacrificed his defense, particularly in the outfield. The fact that the Twins will not have Justin Morneau at 1B will also hurt the other infielders who are used to having Morneau scoop their bad throws out of the dirt. The Twins have numerous holes but they do have some young players that are knocking on the door like Chris Parmelee at 1B, Brian Dozier at SS, Joe Benson in the outfield, Liam Hendriks as a starter and Carlos Gutierrez in the pen. It is starting pitching that the Twins crave but outside of Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers, their does not appear to be a lot there. If the youngsters do indeed turn out to be big leaguers, Ryan will have a core to build on. Deeper in the minors they have some players that could turn out to be stars in a few years. We as fans sometimes fall in love with our teams players and hate to see them go but baseball is like life, you have to keep moving forward and change is necessary, if you stand still,  it means that someone is gaining on you. Change is good, we need to embrace change. Going into 2011 Gardy and Smith talked about the need to add speed, no one talks about speed this year….. I wrote all this and didn’t mention Tsuyoshi Nishioka until just now, see how easy it is to forget?

When the smoke clears, Twins fans should be dancing on Target Plaza if this team can somehow play .500 ball, I unfortunately don’t see it happening in 2012. I just hope that the Twins play some exciting baseball the way it should be played and hopefully fans will still keep coming to Target Field to watch them.

Division winners – Rays, Tigers, Angels

Wild Cards – Yankees, Rangers

Tampa Rays move on to represent the American League in the World Series

Twins Trivia 25 man roster

With the 2012 season less than two weeks away it is still very difficult to predict to will be on the Twins 25 man roster when the Twins take on the Orioles in Baltimore on April 6th. That is not normal for the Twins of recent years but when you lose a few veterans to free agency and the team is coming off a 63-99 record you should not be surprised that there are questions everywhere. I do think the Twins will make a trade or two before the season opens and who knows who might suffer an injury that could change everything. An injury could dramatically change the starting line-up and who makes the 25 man roster on opening day. Here is how I see the team starting the season, I don’t think it will stay that way for long but here is how I see the Twins coming out of the starting gate.

Catcher – The starting catcher will obviously be Joe Mauer who hopefully can catch 120-130 games and play some first base and DH. His primary back-up will be Ryan Doumit. I think the Twins need to carry a 3rd catcher because Mauer and Doumit are both injury prone and will play other positions. I would not be surprised to see all three of their catchers playing in the same game now and then. The Twins third catcher this year will be J.R Towles (an easy addition to the 40 man roster) because the Twins will trade Drew Butera before the season starts to a team that needs a back-up catcher. The Twins are loyal to a fault sometimes and since they have no room in the majors for Butera, they will try to find him a big league job somewhere. Josh Willingham was a catcher earlier in his career so he could be an emergency back stop for Gardy too.

1B – The Twins black hole, the huge unknown. Justin Morneau should be here but I’m afraid we won’t be seeing a lot of Justin at 1B. If Morneau could regain his health, play 1B and even be 90% of what he was in the past, this Twins team would be dramatically better and the team make-up would be much different. The Twins primary first baseman for now and the forseeable future is Chris Parmelee but you will also see Mauer here and Doumit will also show up at first for  a few games and even Luke Hughes can play here if needed.

2B – Belongs to Alexi Casilla but Alexi has played over 100 games in a season only once and that was back in 2006 in the minors. The switch hitting Casilla could really provide a big lift to the team if he can stay healthy and play 150+ games but I think we can count on Alexi taking a mini vacation on the DL this year too. Casilla is a streaky hitter but he has provided some key hits for the Twins over the years. Terry Ryan has always been a Casilla fan but I think he is looking at this year as a “make it or break it season” for Alexi, he either proves he can do it this year or he is history. The back-up second baseman is Luke Hughes but Jamey Carroll can play second too. In an emergency Trevor Plouffe can also play there.

SS – Free agent acquisition Jamey Carroll will start the season at short but I don’t see him holding on to this role for long. Carroll has had over 400 at bats only twice in ten big league seasons, why should things change at 38 years of age? I think by mid June we will see the Brian Dozier shortstop era begin and Carroll who was signed for two years will become the utility player the Twins are looking for, albeit a bit on the expensive side. Casilla will play some short in a back-up role and if the Twins are really in dire straights, they can slip Hughes or Plouffe over there for a game or two.

3B – Should belong to Danny Valencia but he needs to prove he is a big leaguer. Last year was a real downer for Valencia both in the field and at the bat. Hopefully Valencia gets his head screwed on straight and starts playing like he can. Valencia is not the .311 hitter he showed us in 2010 but he is also not the .246 hitter he forced us to watch in 2011 either. Danny needs to adjust his attitude too, he is not a super star so he had better quit acting like one because Minnesota fans will not tolerate it. Hughes is Valencia’s back-up but Carroll and Casilla could play third in a pinch too. In the unlikely event that Valencia is really the 2011 version, hopefully Sean Burroughs is still with the Twins and can be called up. Burroughs can hit, although not with a lot of power and I see him as the last player cut and the Twins 26th man.

LF – Will be manned by Josh Willingham just like I said all along since the Twins signed him. Gardy announced that Willingham is his left fielder after trying Willingham in right all spring. It will be interesting to see how Twins fans react to Willingham as the Twins have not had a hitter like Willingham in some time. Josh did hit a career high 29 home runs in Oakland last season but he also struck out 150 times and had a .246 average. Willingham was a catcher earlier in his career so speed is not his game and he is 33 years old and now there are reports that his arm is not as good as the Twins may have thought. Back-ups here would be Ben Revere, Denard Span, and Trevor Plouffe.

CF – Will be patrolled by Denard Span. The fly in the ointment here would be if Span is not totally recovered from his neck pain or his concussion from last season. Span needs to stay healthy, hit at least .285 steal 25 bases and score about 100 runs if he wants to meet Twins expectations of him in the lead-off spot. The only other outfielder the Twins have to play center is the speedy Ben Revere and he can cover center but his hitting is not all it could be and he throws like a grandmother. The Twins say that Span’s throwing is improved but you can’t make silk from a pigs ear. With Willingham in LF and who ever plays RF be it Doumit, Plouffe, Parmelee, Span and or Revere will have to cover a lot of ground in center because they are the only two outfielders with any speed what so ever.

RF – I think you will see a number of players out here but I think that Ryan Doumit and Trevor Plouffe will get the majority of the time in right. But who ever the Twins put in right other that Span or Revere has to be considered a defensive liability. I think Twins fans will be shocked at how many balls don’t get caught in left and right this season. Who ever plays right might just be keeping the position warm for when Joe Benson gets called up later this season. Benson’s call-up may even move Span to RF.

Bench – Luke Hughes is out of options and is a nice hitter to have coming off the bench. Luke can play all four infield positions, just not well enough to be a starter in any of them. The second bench player is catcher  J.R. Towles who I think beats out Drew Butera. I know that Towles is a .187 hitter as compared to Butera’s .178 but Towles at least has a chance to be a better hitter, I don’t think Butera does. Towles is a good catcher too and earlier this spring I saw him playing 3B and he wasn’t too shabby for a catcher. Butera gets traded. The third member of the Twins bench is Trevor Plouffe the former SS/2B and now an outfielder. Plouffe has some pop in his bat and hopefully he can learn to play the outfield just as Michael Cuddyer did many years earlier and he can still play 2B/SS  if things get hinky for Gardenhire. Ben Revere has my final bench spot simply because the Twins need someone like him to take over in LF or RF late in the game when the Twins have a lead or to come off the bench as a pinch-runner to steal a base.

SP – Is all locked up assuming there are no injuries. Francisco Liriano coming off his best spring ever is pitching like his Twins career depends on it and it is about time. I am not going to get too excited  just yet with Francisco because I know how quickly things can fall apart for him. What a treat it would be if Liriano finally pitched like the ace many predicted he would be. Having said that, if someone offers me an arm and a leg with potential, I trade Francisco so fast it would make your head spin. Scott Baker has the potential to be a very good pitcher but he has hit the 200 inning mark just once in his seven-year career but he is only 30. What frustrates me about Baker is that when he gets some runners on base he turns the game into slo-mo. One more thing, Scott never shows any emotion, some would say that is a good thing, I would say hogwash, I have no problem when a pitcher comes into the dugout after giving up a couple of runs and slams his glove to the bench, show me your care Scott Baker! Baker is like Camilo Pascual in that he likes to take a summer break to the DL list once a year or so, count on it. Carl Pavano is not a great pitcher but he is one of those inning eaters who wants to win. Pavano can pitch on my team any time. Nick Blackburn is my number 4 SP, but I gotta say I don’t understand him at all. Blackie is a sinkerballer who has some great games and others that he just stinks, you just don’t know who you are going to get on any given day. When Nick is healthy, he can throw some innings. The fifth starter is the newest addition, Jason Marquis. I think you will find Marquis to be Pavano like except he gives up fewer hits but walks more batters and when healthy he too will give you 200 innings. The next starter in line should one of the five get hurt or traded is probably Liam Hendriks who could be a lot like Brad Radke if all goes according to plan. Maybe late in the season there may even be a Kyle Gibson sighting, that would be cool.

Bullpen – The Twins bullpen is anchored by closer Matt Capps and I don’t have nearly the issues with Capps that many other bloggers and fans have. He is not the 3 up 3 down kind of closer but he will get the job done when the scoreboard shows the Twins leading late in the game. If former Orioles manager and Hall of Famer Earl Weaver was the Twins manager today he would call Capps a “two-pack closer”.  That meant that Weaver, a heavy smoker could go through two packs of cigarettes as he watched his closer finally shut down the opposition. The set-up guys are left hander and Minnesota native Glen Perkins who escaped the Twins doghouse last season and found his niche with the ballclub and was arguably the Twins top pitcher in 2011. The RH set-up guy appears to be Jared Burton a free agent from this past off-season. Burton is only 30 but he has some injury baggage but a few years ago he was touted to be the Reds closer of the future. Burton has a nice career 7.6 SO/9 but the down side is that he also has a 3.9 BB/9, kind of a more experienced Alex Burnett. The left-handed former starter Brian Duensing will spend the season in the bullpen this year where he is probably better suited. The big right-hander Anthony Swarzak has lost some weight this off-season and some say he has locked down a bullpen spot but I don’t think he has pitched all that well this spring but he has not pitched poorly enough not to earn a spot in the Twins bullpen either. Swarzak is versatile and can pitch several days in a row and that makes him a Twin in 2012. The 28 year-old left handed Matt Maloney is a surprise to me. The former Cincinnati Redleg is striking them out right and left this spring and he has good control, yes, I know, spring training stats mean squat but you have to base your decision on something and that is all I have to go on right now. Maloney seems too good to be true but the Twins “have caught lightning in a bottle” before when they went searching for relief pitchers, maybe they did it again. The final bullpen spot I think is still up in the air between Alex Burnett, Jeff Manship and Kyle Waldrop, all right handers and all with some Twins experience on their resume. If you go strictly by the numbers this spring, Waldrop is the guy for you but Burnett has the most experience and according to Twins management, has upside going for him so I gave the final bullpen spot to the Alex Burnett.

So that is it, that is how I see the Twins roster shaping up for the 2012 season. I would like to tell you that the Twins will contend for the AL Central title this year but I just don’t see that in the cards. I do see the Twins roster turning over as the season moves along and players like Chris Parmelee, Brian Dozier, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Carlos Gutierrez, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros and maybe Kyle Gibson taking on bigger roles at Target field. A number of Twins players will be out to prove that they are still bonified big leaguers this season. 2012 will be a season of change in Minnesota and the July 30 trade deadline could keep GM Terry Ryan real busy. Never the less, I am ready to see the Minnesota Twins open the 2012 season. WIN TWINS!

How about the batting order on opening day? here is how I see it.

Span – CF – bats left
Carroll – SS – bats right
Mauer – C – bats left
Morneau – DH – bats left
Willingham – LF – bats right
Doumit – RF – switch hitter
Valencia – 3B – bats right
Parmelee – 1B – bats left
Casilla – 2B – switch hitter
 

Morneau hitting fourth and Willingham fifth is just Gardy’s loyalty to Justin and reward for his years of Twins service. Morneau and Willingham will switch spots in the batting order very soon.

 

What is the Twins plan?

GM Terry Ryan

What exactly is the Twins plan going forward? In the past, the Twins have always stressed pitching and fielding. The Twins went into 2011 saying that they wanted to improve their defense and their speed. This past off-season the Twins signed Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll and none of these players can be seen even remotely as defensive stars or speed demons. On the pitching side they resigned Matt Capps to be their closer and signed Jason Marquis as another “innings eater” starter to replace Brian Duensing whom they want to move to the bullpen.  For middle relief they went after quantity versus quality hoping to catch “lightning in a bottle” by claiming or signing relievers such as Jason Bulger, Jared Burton, Samuel Deduno, Matt Maloney, Aaron Thompson, Daryl Thompson, Casey Fien, PJ Walters, Brendan Wise and Joel Zumaya. GM Terry Ryan also signed players with big league experience such as 3B Sean Burroughs, 1B Steve Pearce, OF Wilkin Ramirez, and catcher JR Towles.

In the past, Twins management has stated that they didn’t want to start camp too early because the players just got bored and burnt out waiting for the real games to begin. The Twins have historically been one of the last teams to report to and start training camp, this year they are one of the first teams to report and start work-outs.

This year the Twins will have at least 25 non-roster spring training invites this year, there will be more players out there than you can shake a stick at. In the past the Twins position has been not to invite too many players in spring camp because there was just not enough playing time and they wanted to give everyone a chance to showcase their talents.

Ron Gardenhire

This year the Twins seem to be desperate, picking up some veteran hitting help even though their defense and speed will suffer, they picked up a slew of relievers hoping that one or maybe two can find their way north to Minnesota. Speed? Gardy felt a need for speed going into 2011 but I have not heard him mention speed once this off-season. When you sign a 38 year old Jamey Carroll who has never had a full-time starting role to be your regular shortstop you are indeed close to a panic situation. Yep, these are desperate and trying times in Twinsville as the team tries to regroup from a horrendous 63-99 2011 season and the team is taking desperate steps to right a ship that is on the shoals of a major rebuilding effort. The problem they have is that Joe Mauer is making a ton of money and they haven’t a clue as to what will happen with 1B Justin Morneau who is coming off his seventh career concussion. Without big comebacks from both of these Twins stars the team has no chance at even finishing near the .500 mark. Ron Gardenhire will have to do his best managing act ever to get this team to win half of their games.

So it will be an interesting spring in Ft. Myers this year and I would expect to see a number of intrasquad and “B” squad games taking place on the back fields of Hammond Stadium. I will be there to watch the action and it should be fun. The beauty of this time of the year is that we all have hope and no one has lost a game as yet. It just seems to me that the Minnesota Twins are changing gears this year and things are going to be a lot different going forward into 2012 and beyond. So make sure you buy a scorecard when you attend your first Twins game this year.

Can Twins bounce back in 2012? What does history tell us?

Our Minnesota Twins are coming off an atrocious 2011 where the team finished 63-99, a full 32 games behind the AL Central Division winning Detroit Tigers and in the process posting the second worst record in all of baseball. But 2011 is behind us now and we look forward to spring and a brand new season of baseball which hopefully will see the Twins back in winning form. In just a little over a month, Twins players from all over the globe will start to congregate in Ft. Myers, Florida to get into baseball shape which I think really means that they will get in a little stretching, jog a little, catch up on the off-season gossip and  start throwing the baseball around and take a few swings with those shiny new bats they just received during the off-season. When a bad season of baseball ends, there is always “next year” and that next year is just about upon us.

Long before baseball was played, back sometime between 1688-1744 the English poet Alexander Pope said “hope springs eternal in the human breast” and no truer words could be said about how baseball fans look at their favorite baseball teams. Forgotten are the numerous injuries, be they real or perceived, the dropped balls, the hitters that couldn’t run out a ground ball, the runners that had brain farts and stood there and watched as the hit and run unfolded in front of them, the fielders that couldn’t throw straight, the pitchers that keep hitting opponent bats, the perplexed pitching coach who wondered why his pitchers couldn’t find home plate even though it was always in the same spot, the manager who had to make up numerous line-ups each day because he didn’t know which of his players were in the mood to play that day, and of course the owner who was left to wonder what happened to his $113 million.

The injuries that plagued the team in 2011 are hopefully healed and with another year of experience under their belts, we all hope the Twins are back and playing baseball the way that Twins fans of today expect. We are not interested in seeing the Twins play ball as they did say between 1971-1986 when they never won more than 85 games and finished as high as second only once, we expect to see a winning team on the field or at least a team that is playing like they want to win versus the 2011 bunch that quit early and often.

So, what does history tell us will happen to the Twins in 2012? I want you to keep reading, but the bottom line is that while miracles can happen, it sure does not look good. The Twins were 31 games worse in 2011 than they were in 2010, 31 games, only once in franchise history had a Senators/Twins team played so much worse than they had the previous season and those were the Washington Senators of 1934 who finished the season 33 games worse with a 66-86 mark after advancing to the World Series in 1933 with a 99-53 record. The following season (1935) they won 67 games, one more than the year before.

So how have Senators and Twins teams bounced back from such dismal seasons? The best the Senators could ever do was improve by 27 games back between 1911-1912 and the best the Twins have done since 1961 is improve by 23 games as the 1965 Twins did when they won 102 games coming off a 79 win season in 1964.

But let’s look at more modern times so we will look at the seasons between 1997 and 2011 because it probably makes for a fairer comparison based on free agency and player movement of today. In the last 15 seasons here is what has happened in the AL Central Division.

The Kansas City Royals worst drop-off was in 2004 when the team finished 25 games worse than they did in 2003. The following season, 2005, the Royals finished 2 games worse. The best improvement that the Royals have shown their fans was when they finished 21 games better in 2003 than they had shown in 2002.

The Chicago White Sox worst drop-off was in 2007 when the team finished 18 games worse than they did in 2006. The following season, 2008, the mighty whitey’s finished 17 games better. The best improvement that the White Sox fans have seen was when they finished 20 games better in 2000 than they had shown in 1999.

The Cleveland Indians worst drop-off was in 2002 when the team finished 17 games worse than they did in 2001. The following season, 2003, the Indians finished 6 games worse. The best improvement that the Indians fans have seen was when they finished 18 games better in 2007 than they had shown in 2006.

The Detroit Tigers worst drop-off was 14 games and it happened twice, once between 1997 and 1998 and again from 2007 to 2008. The following season in 1999 the team improved by 4 games and in 2009 the team improved by 12 games. The best improvement that the Tigers have seen was when they finished 29 games better in 2004 (to a 72-90 season) than they had shown in 2003, but, 2003 was the season the Tigers put up a pathetic 43-119 record.

That brings us to the Twins, whose worst drop-off was 31 games in 2011 from their 2010 season. The biggest improvement the Twins have shown during this 15 year period was in 2001 (TK’s last season as manager) when they finished 16 games better than what they showed us in 2000. In the past 15 years the Twins have improved their record from the previous season 8 times for an average improvement in games won over the previous season of 8 games. On the minus side their record has gotten worse from the previous season 7 times for an average of -11.29 but that is obviously skewed by the big -31 of 2011. If the 2012 Twins could match their biggest improvement of say 16 games as they did in 2001, that still only moves the Twins 2012 record up to 79-83. The Twins have to improve by 18 games just to reach the .500 mark and would have to improve by 27 games to reach the 90 win mark. It does not look promising.

The Twins have improved their previous years mark by 18 games or better on 4 occassions. The feat was accomplished by the 1991 team that improved by 21 games, the 1969 team that improved by 18 games, the 1965 team that improved by 23 games and the 1962 team that was 21 games better than the 1961 team. Four times in 50 seasons, not good odds for sure and remember, an 18 game improvement only takes the team to an 81-81 record, or .500 baseball. The team has lost Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey and a number of bit players but then again, they lost 99 games when they had these guys. I know they added Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and brought back Matt Capps but how many wins will these guys put in the “W” column?

What this team needs in order to play respectable baseball is for Joe Mauer to step back to earth from the “Twilight Zone” that he was in most of last year and catch 130 games and play 1B and DH for 10-15 more. I see no reason why this can’t happen, Mauer should come out of the gate madder than hell and show everyone that 2011 was a fluke. I will believe that when I see it. The next issue is Justin Morneau, here I am not nearly as optimistic. Justin was just a shell of himself in 2011 and I worry that Justin Morneau’s baseball career is coming to a premature end. That would be so sad as Justin should have many more years in him as a productive Twins first baseman. I hope I am totally wrong about Morneau, but if I was a betting man I would say “show me you still got it” Justin. I hope that Danny Valencia thought long and hard about his baseball career since the 2011 season ended because if he continues to play in 2012 like he did in 2011, he will be receiving his fan mail in Rochester come the middle of May. Valencia might not be the .311 hitter he was in 2010 but he sure better not be the .246 hitter he was in 2011 either. A little more work with the glove wouldn’t hurt Danny either. The Twins outfield is a mess, Willingham is a left fielder and the Twins need him to play right because Ben Revere can’t throw out his grandmother. So that forces the team to play Revere in center which is OK in itself but that means you need to move Span to right field but Span says he wants to play center. In my humble opinion, any outfield with Revere and Span both playing at the same time is a bad thing. I am not sure how things are going to shake out but come the second half of 2012, Joe Benson will be playing in the Twins outfield some where. The Twins signed Jamey Carroll to play short but the man has never had a full-time job in 10 big league seasons and he will be 38 before the Twins open the exhibition season. Is that a move that a contending team makes? We can hope that Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes back to life and show us that he really is a professional baseball player……come on, really, there is a chance. Alexi Casilla at 2B is an enigma but I still have hope for this 27-year-old with parts of six big league season under his belt. The bullpen is a couple of sharp knives short of a complete set and the starting staff of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, and Jason Marquis would make any manager nervous.

So here it is, you make up your mind, can the Twins compete or will they have to fight and scratch like hell just to reach the .500 mark? Me? Come October, I think we should all be dancing on Target Plaza celebrating manager Ron Gardenhire’s second manager of the year award with a cold drink in our hand if this collection of Twins can win half of their games in 2012. However; if this this team wins 70 or fewer games in 2012, manager Ron Gardenhire may be looking for a job.

Twins to sign pitcher Jason Marquis?

According to a report by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, the Twins are nearing a deal with 33-year-old right-handed starting pitcher Jason Marquis. Marquis had signed a two-year $15 million deal  with the Washington Nationals after declaring free agency after the 2009 season. In mid April of 2010 Marquis suffered a right elbow injury and missed 99 games before returning in August and finishing the 2010 season with a 2-9 record and a 6.60 ERA. Marquis started the season with the Washington Nationals in 2011 and was 8-5 with a 3.95 ERA before being traded at the trade deadline at the end of July to the Arizona D-Backs where he pitched in just 3 games and gave up 16 runs in 11+ innings before suffering a broken fibula in early August and ending his season.

Jason Marquis

Marquis was an Atlanta Braves 1st round pick in 1996 and made he big league debut with the Braves on June 6, 2000. Marquis pitched for the Braves between 2000-2003 before being involved in a big trade when the Braves sent Marquis, Adam Wainwright, and Ray King to the St. Louis Cardinals for JD Drew and Eli Marrero. Marquis pitched for the Cardinals from 2004-2006, the Cubs from 2007-2008 and the Colorado Rockies in 2009. Between 2004 and 2009 Marquis averaged 196 innings and 13 wins. Jason Marquis was an All-Star in 2009 and ranked second in the league in double-play grounders induced.

Jason Marquis is one of those “inning eaters” the Twins are apparently looking for and he fits the Twins mold of pitch to contact because in his 12 seasons in the majors he has given up 1,758 hits and 645 walks in 1,675+ innings while striking out 974. I am not sure what Terry Ryan and the Twins see in this guy and I sure hope that they don’t pay him very much but you have to figure he will get at least $5 million. Maybe Marquis will just be a placeholder in the rotation until they reach a point in the season when they can bring up a youngster and move Marquis along once again and hopefully get something in return. Then again, this is not a done deal, just a report of a possible deal so I can still hope it falls apart.

UPDATE December 22 – The Twins have announced that they have reached a one year $3 million deal with Jason Marquis.