Tag: Greg Maddux

Quality Starts and Twins Wins

A pitcher gets credit for a quality start (QS) any time he allows three earned runs or less in a start that lasts at least six innings. John Lowe who was writing for the Philadelphia Inquirer at the time developed and coined the term Quality Start back in 1985.

Most arguments against the QS begin with the statement that a QS equals a 4.50 ERA and an ERA of 4.50 is not seen as top-notch by anybody. If you look up QS on Wiki you can find some strange situations for and against the term QS, for example, in 2000 Mark Mulder goes 6 and 2/3 innings giving up 15 hits, nine runs but only two were earned and so he gets a QS, in 1982 Mike Scott goes the required 6 innings giving up 7 hits, 5 walks, zero strikeouts, allows 7 runs albeit only 3 earned and he get a QS, on the other side of the coin, back in 1974 Gaylord Perry goes 15 innings and allows 4 earned runs and get no QS, same with Randy Johnson who pitches a complete game while striking out 19 but gives up 4 earnies and gets no QS.

Since 1961, the most MLB QS in a single season record is held by White Sox knuckleballer Wilbur Wood who had 37 QS in 41 starts in 1971. Next on the list is Dodger great Sandy Koufax with 36 QS in 1966 (his final season) in 41 starts. The career leaders in QS from 1961-current are Don Sutton with 483, Nolan Ryan with 481, and Greg Maddux with 480.

LHP Jim Kaat
LHP Jim Kaat

The Twins top five career QS leaders are Jim Kaat with 253, Bert Blyleven with 218, Brad Radke with 208, Jim Perry with 156 and Frank Viola with 144. The Twins most QS in a season  record belongs to Bert Blyleven who had 31 QS in 1972 in 38 starts. That 1972 Twins team had the most QS in a single season with 114 in 154 games, that means that 74% of their games were QS and yet the team finished with a 77-77 record. The others starters that season were Dick Woodson with 26 QS, Jim Perry with 22, Jim Kaat and Ray Corbin with 14 and Dave Goltz with 7. Compare that with the 66 QS in 2014 where the team leader was Phil Hughes with 20, Kyle Gibson had 15, Kevin Correia, had 13, Ricky Nolasco had 10, Yohan Pino had 3, Trevor May and Sam Deduno had 2 each and Tommy Milone put one in the books.

Bert Blyleven
Bert Blyleven

But how close is the relationship of a QS to what really counts, a team victory. If you look at the list that I have provided below that shows the Minnesota Twins QS and the team record you can get a feel for how the two compare. Sure, there are outlier seasons like 1972 when the team had 114 QS and finished the season with a 77-77 record or when the opposite happened in 2006 when the Twins went to the play-offs with a 96-66 record but only had 73 QS. By the way, I don’t remember seeing any Rick Anderson for governor buttons back then.

The Twins historical QS numbers are kind of strange, almost a bell-shaped curve. The Twins have had 90 or more QS in a season 11 times and went to the playoffs zero times. No Twins team with 72 or less QS has sniffed the playoffs either. The Twins have advanced to the playoffs 11 times and their QS were always in the 73-89 range and if you exclude the 2006 season with just 73 QS, the other ten fall between 78-89. Having said all that, in the past 54 seasons the Twins have had 4,266 QS, the team record during that period is 4,274-4,335. 4,266 QS and 4,274 wins over 54 seasons, is that strange or what?

The chart below shows you in a pictorial fashion the relationship of QS and Twins victories. Click on the chart to make it larger.

Quality Starts versus Wins

 

Twins Quality Start History

YEAR QS RECORD
1972 114 77-77
1967 105 91-71
1968 100 79-83
1966 99 89-73
1963 95 91-70
1973 93 81-81
1978 92 73-89
1974 90 82-80
 1984  90  81-81
 1988  90  91-71
 2005  90  83-79
 1965*  89  102-60
 1970*  89  98-64
 1991*  89  95-67
 1969*  88  97-65
 1971  88  74-86
 1989  88  80-82
 1964  86  79-83
 2008  86  88-75
 2010*  86  94-68
 1976  83  85-77
 1992  83  90-72
 2004*  83  92-70
1980  82 77-84
 1987*  80  85-77
2001  80  85-77
 2003*  80  90-72
2007  80  79-83
 2011  80  63-99
 1962  79  91-71
2009* 79 87-76
 1998 78 70-92
 2002* 78 94-67
 1961  75  70-90
1990 75  74-88
 1985 74  77-85
 1979  73  82-80
 2006*  73  96-66
 1975  71  76-83
 1986  71  71-91
 2000  71  69-93
 1977 70 84-77
 1993 69 71-91
 1996 69  78-84
 1983 67  70-92
 1982 66 60-102
 2014 66 70-92
 1999 63  63-97
 2012 62  66-96
2013 62  66-96
1997 61 68-94
1981 56  41-68
 1995 43  56-88
 1994 37  53-60
 TOTALS  4,266  4,274-4,335
* = went to playoffs
 .

Twins QS data by decade

DECADE QS AVG. QS PER SEASON
1960’s 816 90.7
1970’s 863 86.3
1980’s 764 76.4
1990’s 667 66.7
2000’s 800 80.0
2010’s 356 71.2
Data provided by Baseball-Reference Play Index.
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I asked Jim Kaat if he would comment on Quality Starts and here is what Jim had to say-

Thanks John,
I’m happy to comment on “Quality Starts”. It’s one of my favorite subjects because it is misunderstood. My pitching stats person, Merrianna McCully, has compiled a 25 year profile on QS’s in her book ‘Three Up Three Down’. She kept all sorts of pitching stats for me from 1988-2006…
The MINIMUM DAILY REQUIREMENT,[ like a vitamin pill] is 6 ip. 3 er or less..the actual earned run averages in a Quality start is a little under 2 in the NL and about 2.05 in the American league..DH factor…The IP’s in a QS game will close to 8 innings pitched. The records show that if a team got just a minimum daily requirement for a QS they would win about 2/3 of their games unless they had an extremely ineffective bullpen.

Jim

Maddux, Glavine, Thomas elected to HOF

Greg Maddux
Greg Maddux

Congratulations to Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas on getting elected to the Hall of Fame in their first year on the BBWAA ballot. All three cleared the 75-percent threshold required to gain election to the Hall of Fame and thus will be inducted in ceremonies July 25-28 at Cooperstown, N.Y. According to the BBWAA web site, “Maddux was the leading vote getter with 555 votes of the 571 ballots, including one blank, cast by senior members of the BBWAA, writers with 10 or more consecutive years of service. That represented 97.2 percent of the vote. Glavine received 525 votes (91.9 percent) and Thomas 478 (83.7).

Tom Glavine
Tom Glavine

In his second year on the ballot Craig Biggio missed getting elected by just two votes. Former Twins pitcher Pitcher Jack Morris received 351 votes (61.5) in his final year on the ballot and will be eligible for the Expansion Era Committee consideration in the fall of 2016. Former Twins reliever Todd Jones who had asked that no one vote for him for the HOF was granted his wish and he will be dropped from the ballot. Former Twins outfielder Jacque Jones and pitcher Kenny Rogers each received but one vote and will also be dropped from future HOF ballots. Rafael Palmeiro only received 4.4% of the vote and will also be dropped from future voting. You can see the complete voting results at http://baseballhall.org/voting-results .

Frank Thomas
Frank Thomas

I am very disappointed that Tim Raines (46.10%), and Edgar Martinez (25.20%) received such low vote totals, I don’t understand how some of the voters can not vote for these and other baseball greats. It appears that the DH role continues to plague some players and I just don’t understand that. DH is a position created by major league baseball and yet voters do not give it the credit it deserves. Each position has unique characteristics and has to be looked at in its own right. Wake up voters, the DH has been around for 40 years and it is not going away in the near future so give the men that play the DH role the credit they deserve. Closers only pitch an inning or so in about 60 games a season, often lose more games than they win and damn near never hit and yet you have no problem electing them to th HOF and yet most DH’s are kept out? STUPID!

On a side note, the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) hit it right on this year by selecting Maddux, Glavine and Thomas to be elected to the HOF. You can see how we voted here.

 

THREE MAKE HOF CUT IN BBA VOTING

Maddux, Thomas, Glavine Recommended by Blogger Organization for Cooperstown

 

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance today recommends three players from the official Hall of Fame ballot to be inducted into Cooperstown this summer. Pitchers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, most closely associated with the Atlanta Braves, and long-time Chicago White Sox first baseman/designated hitter Frank Thomas reached the 75% threshold when BBA members cast their ballots.

 

Greg Maddux
Greg Maddux

Maddux, a four-time Cy Young Award winner for the Braves, pitched from 1986 to 2008 and won 355 games while posting a 3.16 ERA and striking out over 3,300 batters. He had a career WHIP of 1.143 in just over 5,000 innings and an ERA+ of 132 over that span. His best season was 1995, when he fashioned a 19-2 record with a 1.63 ERA, good for a bWAR of 9.7 that year.

Frank Thomas
Frank Thomas

Thomas played from 1990 to 2008, all but the last three season on the south side of Chicago. He has a career slash line of .301/.419/.555 and fashioned an OPS+ of 156 during his playing days. He put up his highest single-season bWAR in 1997, when his 1.067 OPS and 35 home runs played a large role in his mark of 7.3.

 

Tom Glavine
Tom Glavine

Glavine’s career spanned roughly the same time frame as Maddux’s, with Glavine starting in 1987. He won the Cy Young in 1991 and 1998 and finished runner-up two other times. His career ERA was 3.54 and he won 305 games during his tenure with the Braves and the New York Mets. Glavine had a 1.314 WHIP for his career and an ERA+ of 118.

The voting of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance has often been close to what the baseball writers eventually decide, though the correlation is stronger with the year-end awards. A quick look at the past few years:

In 2010, no player reached the 75% mark in BBA voting, while the writers inducted only Andre Dawson.

In 2011, the BBA selected Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven and both were inducted into Cooperstown that summer.

In 2012, Barry Larkin and Jeff Bagwell were selected by the BBA, but the writers only took Larkin.

Last year, the bloggers again picked Bagwell, while the writers could not agree on anyone to honor.

Bagwell lost support in this year’s voting, coming up roughly 10% shy of recommendation. The final vote totals are as follows:

 

Greg Maddux 94.51%

Frank Thomas 80.22%

Tom Glavine 75.82%

Mike Piazza 72.53%

Craig Biggio 70.33%

Jeff Bagwell 64.84%

Barry Bonds 60.44%

Roger Clemens 59.34%

Tim Raines 54.95%

Edgar Martinez 41.76%

Curt Schilling 39.56%

Mike Mussina 32.97%

Alan Trammell 30.77%

Jack Morris 25.27%

Mark McGwire 21.98%

Larry Walker 17.58%

Jeff Kent 15.38%

Lee Smith 14.29%

Don Mattingly 9.89%

Fred McGriff 8.79%

Rafael Palmeiro 7.69%

Sammy Sosa 4.40%

Moises Alou 3.30%

Eric Gagne 2.20%

Luis Gonzalez 2.20%

Sean Casey 1.10%

Kenny Rogers 1.10%

Richie Sexson 1.10%

J.T. Snow 1.10%

Armando Benitez 0.00%

Ray Durham 0.00%

Jacque Jones 0.00%

Todd Jones 0.00%

Paul Lo Duca 0.00%

Hideo Nomo 0.00%

Mike Timlin 0.00%

 

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance was established in the fall of 2009 for the purpose of fostering collaboration and communication among bloggers from across baseball. The BBA currently has approximately 240 blogs in its membership, including some of the most prominent blogs on the Internet, spanning all major league teams and various other general aspects of the game.

More information about the BBA can be found at their website, baseballbloggersalliance.wordpress.com, or by contacting the founder and administrator of the organization, Daniel Shoptaw, at baseballbloggersalliance@gmail.com.

If I had a Hall of Fame vote

Just think how much fun it would be to have a have a vote for the MLB Hall of Fame. There are many deserving candidates on the list this year as there are every year but this years ballot seems extraordinarily loaded. You have three pitchers with 300+ wins, you have five hitters with 500+ home runs, two players with 3,000+ hits, a player with 800+ stolen bases and a closer with 478 saves.

According to MLB HOF rules, electors may vote for as few as zero (0) and as many as ten (10) eligible candidates deemed worthy of election. Write-in votes are not permitted.

Any candidate receiving votes on seventy-five percent (75%) of the ballots cast shall be elected to membership in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

For me that is where the “kicker” comes in to play. The words integrity and character are specifically mentioned in the voting rules. I know that not all the players in the Hall are saints but what is in the past is not something I can change. If I had a vote today I could not vote for players that have been accused of cheating. I know all about innocent until proven guilty but that is not how things really are in life. These players that are being accused of cheating are hiding behind the veil of time and waiting for time to pass by. If these players were really innocent, I think they would be putting forth some effort to show that they are innocent. Come on, step up and show me why you should not be lumped in with that bunch of cheaters. When and if the Hall decided that Shoeless Joe Jackson and Pete Rose can be enshrined in the Hall, I will be open to placing a vote for players like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmeiro. Until then, these guys have to wait on the bench.

 The Twins Trivia Hall of Fame ballot for 2013 would look like this.

Greg Maddux

Frank Thomas

Craig Biggio

Edgar Martinez

Tom Glavine

Jack Morris

Tim Raines

Tony La Russa, Joe Torre and Bobby Cox were unanimously elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame
Tony La Russa, Joe Torre and Bobby Cox were unanimously elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame

Congratulations to Joe Torre, Bobby Cox, and Tony LaRussa on their election to the Hall of Fame.