Analyzing Minnesota Twins First Round Picks – Part 1

Since the June Amateur Draft began in 1965 the Minnesota Twins have selected 72 players in round one, some are their regular first round selections and other are supplemental picks for the loss of a free agent or failure to sign a round one selection. 

Over the years the Twins have failed to sign seven first round selections, about 10% of their total first round picks. The seven players that did not sign were four position players and three pitchers. You would think most of these would be high school players that chose to go on to college but that is not the case here, six were college players and only one was a high school player. The last time the Twins organization failed to sign a player was 2000 supplemental pick RHP Aaron Heilman.

Minnesota Twins first round draft picks 1965-2016

POS HS COLLEGE
C 2 1
1B 1 1
2B 0 1
SS 8 3
3B 4 2
OF 12 2
RHP 9 10
LHP 1 8
DID NOT SIGN 1  6
  38 34

Know your Minnesota Twins closers

The folks at Baseball-Reference.com describe a save as follows: 

A save (abbreviated SV or S) is a statistic awarded to a relief pitcher, often called a closer, who enters the game under certain conditions and maintains his team’s lead until the end of the game. The save rule was first adopted for the 1969 season and amended for the 1974 and 1975 seasons. Baseball researchers have worked through the official statistics retroactively to calculate saves for all major league seasons prior to 1969.

The first save credited to a Minnesota Twins pitcher occurred on April 16, 1961 long before the save rule was actually in existence in 1969.

Twins Turkey of the Year for 2016

Turkey Cartoon

First of all I would like to wish you and your families and friends a very happy, healthy, and safe Thanksgiving. Without further ado let’s cut to the meat of things.

There were so many options for the 2016 Twins Turkey of the Year that the following didn’t even make the final five this Thanksgiving. Players like Glen PerkinsTrevor Plouffe, Joe MauerJohn Ryan MurphyByron BuxtonMiguel SanoByung Ho ParkTyler DuffeyPhil HughesKevin Jepsen, and Trevor May all deserve to be on the list but this years field is just so packed with worthy candidates that all these guys can muster is an honorable mention.

Jim Pohlad
Jim Pohlad

Let’s cut to the chase and get right to it with our fourth runner-up, The Pohlad family, the 75th richest family in the US of A and Jim Pohlad serves as their spokesman. Mr. Pohlad watched this team deteriorate for six seasons before he finally realized that what we have here is a “total systems failure” when his team set a new record with 103 losses. Finally he told his GM Terry Ryan that his services were no longer needed as of the end of the season and Terry Ryan said OK and walked away in July. The team didn’t put a permanent replacement in place until after the World Series was over in early November although Rob Antony served as the interim GM. According to the new Chief of Baseball Operations for the Twins, he interviewed with brothers Jim, Bill, and Bob Pohlad and a host of other Twins organization members before getting offered the job. The one stipulation that Jim Pohlad put on the new CBO was that Paul Molitor manages the Twins in 2017. Why would you do that to a manager who is in the final year of his contract and why would Molitor stay on the job? Sounds like Pohlad doesn’t want to do the dirty work in dumping Molitor, that’s why he has employees like Derek Falvey.

Twins General Manager Terry Ryan (Pioneer Press: John Autey)
Twins General Manager Terry Ryan (Pioneer Press: John Autey)

Our third runner-up is former GM Terry Ryan. Terry Ryan was always one of my favorite people in the Twins organization. A very good down to earth baseball man who has watched how baseball has changed over the years but unfortunately I think that the pace of change within baseball caught up with him and made him one of baseball’s dinosaurs and you all know what happened to the dinosaurs. I think that there should always be a place in baseball for people like Terry Ryan. Ryan had either bad luck or bad input on many of his free agent signings over the last few years and his trades have not panned out either. One of his biggest mistakes was his decision this past season to try to make Miguel Sano an outfielder when he had never played there before, not only was Sano not able to play the outfield he was so confused and stressed by the position change that he was no longer the power hitter the Twins have been waiting for.

Neil Allen
Neil Allen

Second runner-up is our pitching coach Neil Allen. Allen talks a story about how he wants to change the pitching staff and make them better but so far we have not seen zilch. After two seasons at least show me a couple of pitchers that have improved under the tutelage of Allen because I sure have not seen them. Who really hired Neil Allen to be the pitching coach any way because Paul Molitor said that he never met Allen before Twins Fest in 2015. Add in the fact that Allen has been a recovering alcoholic since 1994 but fell off the wagon and was charged with a DWI and suspended by Minnesota on May 26 and you have a recipe for disaster. Allen was reinstated on July.

Paul Molitor
Paul Molitor

Our runner-up this year is Twins skipper Paul Molitor who will start year three of his three-year contract. I am still amazed that Molitor has hung on as the Twins manager going into the final year of his contract. Players in 2017 have no reason to buy into Molitor’s ideas and plans because the players will be here longer than Molitor will. What faith does management have in you when they force you to manage in this situation, they might as well tell him don’t buy any green banana’s and to go month to month on his rent payments. Molitor took over 70 win team and managed them to 83 win in his first year, then in year two he managed them to 59 wins. The honeymoon has worn off quickly and the sooner Derek Falvey gives Molitor the pink slip the better it will be for all concerned including Paul Molitor who looks like he has aged 20 years in his two season at the helm of the Minnesota Twins. For his own health and well being Paul Molitor should walk away sooner than later.

That of course bring us to this years winner of the Twins Turkey of the Year award. The 2016 Minnesota Twins season was so outrageously bad that it would not be fair to award this years honor to just one individual. Instead this years award goes to all the players, field staff, and front office personnel who made up the 2016 Minnesota Twins team. The team finished with the worst record in baseball at 59-103, a drop from 83 wins in 2015, a drop of 24 games in the win column. Yikes! The team was out scored 722 to 889, only the 1996 Twins gave up more runs. Twins hitters did hit 200 home runs led by Brain Dozier’s 42 but the pitching staff gave up 221 round-trippers. The Twins used 11 starting pitchers and the starter with the most wins had nine victories. Miguel Sano led the team in strikeouts with 178, oh wait, he is a hitter, on the pitching staff Ervin Santana had 149 K’s. The good news? The Minnesota Twins say they will not raise ticket prices in 2017, a good idea after going 407-565 (.418%) during the last six seasons. I know this is really a radical idea but maybe you should consider lowering ticket prices….. but then again that is not how you earned the 2016 Twins Turkey of the Year award.

2016 Twins Turkey of the Year award winners - the 2016 Minnesota Twins
2016 Twins Turkey of the Year award winners – the 2016 Minnesota Twins

 

Previous Twins Turkey of Year award winners

2015 – Pitcher Ricky Nolasco

2014 – Outfielder Aaron Hicks

2013 – Presdident Dave St. Peter

2012 – Owner Jim Pohlad

2011 – Catcher Joe Mauer

2010 – 3B Brendan Harris

2009 – Glen Perkins

Twins starting pitchers that never finished what they started

Do you know what pitcher has started the most games for the Minnesota Twins and hasn’t completed a single one of his starts?

Mike Pelfrey
Mike Pelfrey

The Minnesota Twins franchise leader in starts without a single complete game on his resume is Mike Pelfrey but Pelfrey does have a couple of complete games with the New York Mets. Ironically former Senators and Twins pitcher Jim Kaat holds the Washington Senators franchise record for most starts with 11 and zero complete games and he did that between 1959-1960. Oddly enough three of the ten pitchers on the list below pitched for the Twins in 2016.

Twins leaders in starts with zero complete games

Rk Player GS ? G GF W L W-L% SV IP SO ERA BF
1 Mike Pelfrey 64 64 0 11 27 .289 0 341.0 197 4.94 1513
2 Boof Bonser 60 96 9 18 25 .419 0 391.2 317 5.12 1723
3 Kevin Correia 54 54 0 14 26 .350 0 314.2 162 4.49 1364
4 Pat Mahomes 51 114 26 18 28 .391 3 366.2 217 5.82 1635
5 Willie Banks 45 52 5 16 17 .485 0 259.2 191 4.61 1163
6 Glen Perkins 44 401 225 35 25 .583 120 618.2 502 3.83 2601
7 Sam Deduno 41 63 8 16 18 .471 0 279.0 198 4.26 1216
8 Tommy Milone 40 49 5 12 11 .522 1 219.2 154 4.79 968
9 Mike Trombley 36 365 132 30 34 .469 34 645.2 528 4.53 2815
10 Tyler Duffey 36 36 0 14 13 .519 0 191.0 167 5.42 838
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/20/2016.

The MLB record holder in this category is still active and he is Bud Norris (a free agent I believe) with 185 starts and zero complete games in the books between 2009-2016 while pitching for five different teams.

The MLB leader by the way, in complete games is Cy Young with 749 and Bert Blyleven leads the Twins in complete games with 141 which comes out to 41% of his starts. 

They weren’t what we expected them to be

With no outs in the bottom of the seventh, coach brings in a new pitcher.

The June amateur draft started in 1965 and the Minnesota Twins have had 72 first round selections including supplemental/compensation picks. Nine of those first round picks have been left-handed pitchers (eight were collegiate picks and one was from high school) with Tyler Jay being the most recent lefty being selected in the first round in 2015. So how have these pitchers fared for the Twins?

1973Eddie Bane – Drafted in round 1, 11th over-all out of Arizona State University and went straight to the big leagues making his debut on July 4, 1973 at Met Stadium in a start against the Kansas City Royals. The 5’9″ Bane didn’t figure in the decision but pitched well in a 5-4 loss to the Royals. Injuries hindered Bane’s career but Bane himself said that he just wasn’t good enough to be a big league pitcher. Bane’s big league career consisted of 44 games for the Twins with a 7-13 record and 4.66 ERA. Bane became a free agent in October 1977 but never saw big league action again. WAR with the Twins was a -1.0.

1982Bryan Oelkers – Drafted in round 1, 4th over-all (selected one pick earlier than the Mets selection of Dwight Gooden) out of Wichita State University. Oelkers was a 20th round pick of the Chicago Cubs in 1979 but he chose not to sign.  Oelkers was only the second player born in Spain to reach the major leagues. Oelkers debuted in the big leagues with only 8 minor league games in his resume the following season on April 9, 1983 at the Kingdome in a start against the Mariners. Oelkers had a good start going 6.2 innings giving up only 3 hits and 2 earned runs but he came away with his first big league loss. Oelkers ended his first and only season with the Twins with an 0-5 record and a 8.65 while allowing 56 hits in 34.1 innings. In January of 1986 the Twins traded Bryan Oelkers and Ken Schrom to the Cleveland Indians for Ramon Romero and Roy Smith. Oelkers pitched for Cleveland in 1983 going 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA in 35 games. Oelkers pitched in the Expos, Cubs and Cardinals minor league systems  but never reached the big leagues again. WAR with the Twins was -1.3.

1992Dan Serafini – Was the Twins round 1 selection and 26th over-all out of Serra High School in San Mateo, California. In 1996 Baseball America had him rated as the 76th best prospect and the Twins called Dan Serafini up to pitch a game against the New York Yankees on June 25 at the Metrodome. Here is what Serafini had to say about that experience in a 2013 interview –

“It was not an easy team to pitch against for my first time playing in the big leagues, but it was a great memory. It was kind of funny. The Twins wouldn’t let me into the locker room before the game. They didn’t want any animosity in the locker room because they hadn’t sent anyone down (to Triple-A) yet. I had to stay in a hotel and then on game day I got to show up right before the game started so that I could get ready to play. It wasn’t the greatest experience, but it was still a good experience. I got to the big leagues!”

 You can see the entire interview here. Serafini’s start lasted 4.1 innings and he gave up 7 hits and 5 earned runs and was saddled with the loss in a Yankees 6-2 over Minnesota. That was the only game that Serafini pitched in a Twins uniform in 1996. Serafini spent portions of 1997 and 1998 in Minnesota but as spring training ended in 1999 the Twins sold Dan Serafini to the Chicago Cubs. Serafini career numbers with the Twins were  9-6 in 35 games with a 5.88 ERA. Serafini went on to pitch for the Cubs, Pirates, Reds and eventually the Rockies not to mention pitching in Japan, Mexico and Independent ball. Appears to have hung up his jock strap after the 2013 season. His WAR with Twins was a -0.6.

1994Travis Miller – Was a supplementary 1st round selection and 34th pick over-all from Kent State University for the Twins not being able to sign 1993 first round pick catcher Jason Varitek. Miller’s debut at the Metrodome on August 25, 1996 against the Rangers was one he would like to forget, one inning pitched with five hits and two walks including two home runs allowed and seven earned runs and he took the defeat in a 13-2 Twins loss. Miller however continued to pitch for the Twins albeit primarily in relief from 1996-2002 until the Twins released him in June of 2002 and he never pitched in the big leagues again. His Twins career lasted all or parts of seven seasons in which he appeared in 203 games winning 7 and losing 18 with a 5.05 ERA and a Twins WAR of 1.2.

1995Mark Redman – Was a Tigers 42 round pick in 1992 but did not sign and he went on to be the Twins first round selection in 1995 and 13th pick over-all. Debuted in a start against the Mariners at the Metrodome on July 24, 1999 and got a no decision for his efforts in which he lasted 4.2 innings and gave up 3 earned run on 4 hits and three walks. The Twins won the game 10-3. Redman was primarily a starter for Minnesota from 1999-2001 going 15-13 with a 4.86 ERA before being traded to the Tigers for closer Todd Jones. Redman was an All-Star with the Royals in 2006. Redman who pitched in the big leagues for 10 seasons with eight different teams posted a 3.6 WAR with the Twins.

 1998Ryan Mills – Was originally drafted in 1995 by the Yankees in round 13 but didn’t sign and the Twins scooped him up in round 1 with the 6th over-all pick out of Arizona State University and signed for a $2 million bonus. After seven seasons Mills had a 17-40 minor league record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP before the Twins told him to look for other employment. Mills never put on a Twins uniform.

Glen Perkins 20152004Glen Perkins – Perkins was selected by the Minnesota Twins in the first round and 22nd over-all of the 2004 amateur draft out of the University of Minnesota as compensation for losing Eddie Guardado and signed for a $1.425 million bonus. His big league debut took place September 21, 2006 at Fenway Park as a reliever in a Twins 6-0 loss and he pitched 1.1 innings without allowing a hit. Perkins was originally a starter but after putting up an ERA of 5.89 in 2009 and 5.82 in 2010 the Twins put him in the bullpen where he has flourished as a closer when he is not injured. Perkins has been a Minnesota Twin for all or parts of 11 seasons and has a Twins WAR of 8.8 and has made the All-Star team three times.

2009 – Matt Bashore – Bashore was a first round and 46th over-all supplemental pick for the loss of Dennys Reyes. Injuries kept Bashore from achieving his dream and the Twins let him go after the 2011 season when he pitched in Elizabethton for the second time after sitting out 2010 due to injury. Never wore a Twins uniform and walked away with a $751,550 Twins signing bonus.

2015 – Tyler Jay – Twins first round selection and sixth player taken over-all from Illinois when he was the highest ever MLB draft choice and signed by Minnesota for $3.8 million. Jay was a reliever in college but the Twins are transitioning him to a starting role. Jay was promoted to Chattanooga (AA) in July but only appeared in 5 games there pitching 14 innings before being placed on the DL in early August with a neck/shoulder injury. Additional info on his injury can be found here, not exactly promising news.

So there you are, 57 years worth of LHP drafted in the first round by the Minnesota Twins, nine left-handed pitchers, eight out of college and one out of high school drafted by the Twins and what have we had to show for it? Glen Perkins has been the only one to really pan out and he didn’t come into his own until he was moved to the bullpen. You expect your first round picks to be All-Star caliber players and the Twins have had just two. You have to wonder, with their dismal track record why do the Twins even bother drafting LHP in round one? Why waste a first round pick on LHP?

Let’s look at the rest of the league

How 2016 AL starting pitchers were acquired

Justin Verlander had a 6.6 pitching WAR, the best in baseball in 2016.
Justin Verlander had a 6.6 pitching WAR, the best in baseball in 2016.

Now that the 2016 regular season is over it is time to take a look at the American League starting staffs and see how the teams acquired their starting pitchers. In this case I am only going to look at pitchers that started 10 or more games for their teams. Several of the pitchers appear on more than one team.

This past season there were 95 pitchers in the American League that started 10 games or more games for their teams. The wild card winning Baltimore Orioles and the worst team in baseball Minnesota Twins each had eight pitchers with at least 10 starts, on the other end of the spectrum the wild card winning Toronto Blue Jays and the 69 win Oakland A’s each had only five starters with 10 or more starts.

Why don’t Twins just jettison Jepsen?

Kevin Jepsen
Kevin Jepsen

Twins reliever Kevin Jepsen will be 32 years old in a month or so and he is pitching in his ninth season in the big leagues. Jepsen was selected in the second round by the Angels in 2002 and the Twins selected Jesse Crain just a few picks later. Like most pitchers, Jepsen started his career as a starter but was moved to the bullpen full-time in 2006 and he has not started a game since.

The Twins acquired Jepsen in a trade with Tampa for prospects Chih-Wei Huh and Alexis Tapia at the trade  deadline in 2015. Not unlike many of the relievers in MLB, Kevin Jepsen has had an up and down career. Very few relievers are consistent from year to year and if they are, they usually find themselves in a closer’s role.

Jepsen was a godsend for the Twins last season when he pitched great as the 8th inning guy before taking over the closer role from Glen Perkins in mid-August. 2016 has been one of those bad seasons for Jepsen from day 1. Jepsen has lost his closer role now but he has appeared in 32 games this season and pitched 29.2 innings. In his 29+ innings Jepsen has given up 42 hits and 12 walks and given up 22 runs, 21 of them earned. The man has pitched horrendously for the Twins while getting paid $5.3 million.

So what do you do with him? Why keep a reliever who is pitching poorly even if he is making a modest $5.3 million? But who will take a reliever off your hands that has given up 42 hits in 29+ innings and has a 6.37 ERA? Jepsen has pitched one clean (no hits or walks) inning in his last 23 appearances going back to April 25th. The Twins may not get much in return but there are teams that would take a chance on Jepsen because it is not unheard of for players like Jepsen to turn their year around with a change in scenery and he is a free agent after this season. Even if the Twins can’t get anyone to take Jepsen than just dump him and you still win, there has to be some minor league pitcher in the Twins system that deserves a look.

UPDATE: Kevin Jepsen was designated for assignment on July 3, 2016.

The MLB June amateur draft is far from a science

2016 DraftThe 2016 MLB will take place June 9, 2016 in Secacus, New Jersey and the Minnesota Twins will have the 17th selection this year. There are already numerous mock drafts being published but as normal they are all over the board, so what else is new. Here is a list (with pictures) on MLB.com of their proposed top 100 2016 prospects.

Baseball draft are so different from all the other sports in many ways but the two main differences that stand out is that baseball drafts are more international than other sports and if you get drafted in baseball you can look forward to spend a number of years in the minor leagues before you have the experience and necessary skill sets to play in the major leagues. Sure there have been some players that went directly to the major leagues but they are rare and the last player to do so I believe is RHP Mike Leake who was drafted eighth overall in 2010 by the Cincinnati Reds from Arizona State and now pitches for the Cardinals. The last Twins player to be drafted and go straight to a big league mound was LHP Eddie Bane who also was from Arizona State.

The June amateur draft is exciting for the fans but it is serious business for the MLB teams that have spent lots of time and money watching these young prospects as they try to determine who is the best player available when it comes time to make their selection. Mistakes in a draft can and do haunt teams for many years. There are many ways to mess up a draft choice, the player may not turn out to be as good as you thought, you might have bypassed a star player, you might not be able to sign the player, the player and/or his agent may state they don’t want to play for you, and of course an injury may cut his career short. If everything goes your way you have yourself a baseball player but the odds are stacked against you.

How will the Twins fare in 2016

I know I am a bit late with my Minnesota Twins prediction this year and I blame it on the Panama Canal cruise that I returned from yesterday. In the 2016 Minnesota Twins I see a fun young team but a team that takes a small step back this season. The good news however; is that the lessons the younger players learn this year will help them to become solid contenders in 2017 and beyond.

einstein 2016

The most pleasant surprise this year will be the hitting of Eduardo Escobar who has finally taken over the shortstop role on a full-time basis and turns out to be a much better hitter than most expected. The biggest disappointment of the year will be the back-end of the Twins bullpen with Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen not performing up to their abilities, Jepsen due to injury and Perkins more due to attitude than anything else. What most had viewed as a strength going into 2016 turns out to actually be a weakness.

How about the AL Central Division? Here is how I see them in the standings come early October.

  1. Royals
  2. Tigers
  3. White Sox
  4. Twins
  5. Indians

GO TWINS!

 

It’s starting to get exciting over at the ballpark

The weather has been cool, wet and windy here in SW Florida since the calendar rolled over to 2016 but the last few days have been sunny and in the mid 70’s here and the population of Twins players and Twins wannabees is growing by the day. I stopped by the  CenturyLink Sports Complex again yesterday and was surprised at how many players had already shown up and how many fans were out watching the players go through their paces.

 

Max Kepler
Max Kepler

The players that show up this early come and go, some show up every day and others show up now and then. Miguel Sano was out here on  my first visit but I have not seen him the last two times I have been out here. Yesterday I saw Max Kepler for the first time this spring and he said that he just arrived the day before. I was shocked when I first saw Max because he was not the baby-faced player I had gotten used to seeing, he was sporting a beard and mustache or maybe I should say he was trying to grow a beard.

Byung Ho Park
Byung Ho Park

Byung-ho Park is working out every day but he does not seem to have the same crowd of press members following him like Tsuyoshi Nishioka did when he first signed with Minnesota. Park and Nishioka appear to have taken totally different approaches to their integration into the Twins organization, when Nishioka was here and working out prior to spring training he worked out on his own with his interpreter and seldom if ever joined the rest of the players. Parker is just the opposite, he works out with the rest of the players and he is willing to spend time with the fans signing autographs, something Nishioka didn’t seem to be real excited about. I don’t know if Park will make the team but in my eyes he is already way ahead of Nishioka when he joined the Twins and spring training hasn’t even officially started.

I continue to be amazed at how many fans mention how great the CenturyLink Sports Complex and the Minnesota Twins organization is as compared to the Boston Red Sox and JetBlue Park, their spring training home. The Twins allow their fans to wander all over the grounds and inter-act with the players and the Red Sox are all about security and limit access to everything and everybody. It is not just the fans that have this opinion, it is members of the local press here also.

Pitchers and catchers report this week-end, I can’t wait. The Twins were much improved in 2015 so you would think that there would be fewer questions and fewer roster spots up for grabs this year but I don’t think that is the case and it all revolves around Miguel Sano. Can Sano play right field? If not, all kinds of options can come into play. I have all kinds of questions. Is Byung Ho Park ready for MLB? What if Byron Buxton does not win the CF spot? Do you buy he has to prove the job belongs to him or does he have to prove he can’t handle it? What about the bullpen? Are the Twins still looking for a proven left reliever? Is Glen Perkins healthy? Are Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, and Kennys Vargas still in the Twins plans? Max Kepler and Adam Walker are coming fast, will they start to call Minneapolis home this summer? When will Jose Berrios join the Twins starting rotation? Did the Twins make a good move in giving up Aaron Hicks? So many questions and so little time to get them answered, you can bet that Twins spring training this year will be one of the most exiting ever.

When I was out at the ballpark I once again took some pictures that you view in the 2016 Spring Training pictures link on the right hand side of the page. I hope you enjoy them.