Not all first round picks are born to be stars

For some baseball fans the MLB June Amateur Draft is one of the highlights of the season. They can’t wait to see who their favorite team drafts and then can’t wait to see that player wear their favorite team colors. Who knows, maybe their team just landed the next great baseball superstar, but few consider the fact that even first round selections can turn out to baseball “duds”.

If you pick a player in round one you expect him to be a bona-fide big league star, an All-Star type of player. Sadly, a lot of them will not meet those expectations for one of many different reasons.

The 2018 June Amateur Draft is just around the corner so it is time to take a look at the Minnesota Twins previous first round selections for the last ten years and see how they are doing.

 

The Minnesota Twins have had 18 first round selections in the last ten years (2008-2017). 

  • Three of the picks are playing for the Minnesota Twins at this time. Gibson, Buxton and Berrios
  • One of the picks is playing for another big league team. Hicks
  • One of the picks was selected in the Rule 5 draft, pitched briefly in the big leagues but was returned to the Twins minor league system. Bard
  • Seven of the picks are in the Twins system and still have a shot at wearing Twins colors at some point in the future. Lewis, Rooker, Kirilloff, Jay, Gordon, Stewart and Bard
  • Three of the picks are no longer with the Minnesota organization and are playing in the minors elsewhere. Michael, Harrison and Wimmers
  • Four are no longer playing pro baseball. Boyd, Bashore, Gutierrez and Hunt

 

Twins first round picks for last 10 years

2017Royce Lewis (shortstop) – First pick overall out of high school. Has been at Cedar Rapids (Low A) all season and is hitting .315 with a .368 OBP in 124 at bats with one home run and 13 stolen bases in 14 attempts. Signing bonus – $6.725 million

2017 – Brent Rooker – (outfielder) – 35th selection overall out of college. Has spent the season in Chattanooga (AA) and is hitting .233 in 163 at bats with four homers and 20 and has struck out 53 times. Has shown power in the past but no so much this year. The Twins seem to be grooming him to play first base. Signing bonus – $1.935 million

2016Alex Kirilloff – (outfielder) – 15th overall pick out of high school. Missed all of 2017 with TJ surgery and has played with Cedar Rapids all of this season hitting .325 in 151 at bats and a slick .959 OPS. Signing bonus – $2,817,100 million

2015Tyler Jay (LHP) – Selected sixth over all out of college. Pitched as a starter in 2015 and 2016 and strictly a reliever since. Injuries have plagued Jay and last season he pitched a total of just 11.2 innings for three different teams. He also pitched in the AFL where he threw 9.2 innings and had a 5.59 ERA. This year in AA Chattanooga he has thrown 14 innings striking out 9, walking 5,  has allowed 16 hits and has an ERA of 1.93. Signing bonus – $3,889,100 million

2014Nick Gordon (shortstop) – Selected fifth overall out of high school. The son of Tom “Flash” Gordon is in his fifth season of pro ball and was just promoted to AAA Rochester after hitting .333 in AA Chattanooga with 7 stolen bases, 10 doubles and 5 homers in 162 at bats. I would expect to see him put on a Minnesota Twins uniform at some point this season. In my opinion with Jorge Polanco suspended and the team hitting poorly why not bring Gordon up and see if he can provided a spark? Signing bonus – $3.851 million

2013Kohl Stewart (RHP) – Selected fourth overall out of high school. Finished the 2017 season in AA Chattanooga and is calling it home again this season. Has a 3-1 record but sports a 4.70 ERA with 36 strikeouts and 41 hits in 38.1 innings. Injuries has also plagued Stewart in his career. He is going to need a breakout season real soon…. Signing Bonus – $4.544 million

2012Byron Buxton (outfielder) – Selected second overall out of high school and has been with the Twins off and on since his big league debut in June of 2015. Great outfielder with speed to burn but hitting has been sub par. For a second overall pick you have to consider him “disappointing” so far. Signing bonus – $6 million

2012Jose Berrios (RHP) – Selected 32nd overall out of high school in Puerto Rico and debuted with Minnesota in 2016. Berrios is having a great season in 2018 with the Twins. Looks to be the ace the Twins hoped he would be. Signing bonus – $1.55 million

2012Luke Bard – (RHP) – Selected 42nd overall out of college and has had some injury issues including TJ surgery that caused him to miss all of 2014. Selected by the Angels as a Rule 5 selection last November and pitched 11.2 innings with 13 strikeouts in the bigs but was returned to Minnesota in late April and is pitching in AAA Rochester and I would not be shocked to see him at least get a cup of coffee with the Twins in 2018. Signing bonus – $1.227 million

2011Levi Michael – (shortstop) – Selected 30th overall out of college and was released by Minnesota after the 2017 season and currently playing AA ball in the New York Mets system. Signing bonus – $1.175 million

2011Travis Harrison – (Third Baseman) Selected 50th overall out of high school and released by Minnesota after the 2017 season and currently playing in an Independent league. Signing bonus – $1.050 million

2011Hudson Boyd (RHP) Selected 55th overall out of a Ft. Myers high school and signed for one million dollars and was released by Minnesota in 2014. Boyd had many issues including his weight, booze, and attitude. A major flop! Signing bonus – $1 million

2010Alex Wimmers (RHP) – Selected 21st overall out of college. Pitched in a total of 24.2 innings for the Twins between 2016 and 2017 and posted a 1-3 record with a 4.38 ERA but those 19 walks were horrific and he is now in the Marlins system where at last look he had a 9.82 ERA. Signing bonus – $1.332 million

2009Kyle Gibson (RHP) – Selected 22nd overall out of college. Debuted with Minnesota in 2013 and has been in the starting rotation since 2014. Signing bonus – $1.8 million

2009Matt Bashore (LHP) – Selected 46th overall out of college. Missed all of 2010 with TJ surgery and released by the Twins after the 2011 season. Bashore pitched a total of 18.2 innings in the Twins minor league system before the organization gave up on him and out of baseball after the 2012 season. Signing bonus – $751,500

2008Aaron Hicks (outfielder) – Selected 14th overall out of high school and opened the season in Minnesota as the starting center fielder in 2013. Hitting woes caused the Twins to give-up on Hicks and trade him to the New York Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy in November 2015 but he too turned out to be a dud and was sent packing to Arizona. Hick is still playing with the Yankees in a semi-regular role. Signing bonus – $1.78 million

2008Carlos Gutierrez (RHP) – Selected 27th selection overall out of college and advanced as high as AAA in the Twins system before he moved on to the Cubs in 2013 but left pro ball after that season. Signing bonus – $1,290 million

2008Shooter Hunt (RHP) – Selected with the 31st pick overall out of college and didn’t get higher than high A in Ft. Myers before moving on to a different career after the 2011 season. Signing bonus – $1.080 million

Analyzing Minnesota Twins First Round Picks – Part 1

Since the June Amateur Draft began in 1965 the Minnesota Twins have selected 72 players in round one, some are their regular first round selections and other are supplemental picks for the loss of a free agent or failure to sign a round one selection. 

Over the years the Twins have failed to sign seven first round selections, about 10% of their total first round picks. The seven players that did not sign were four position players and three pitchers. You would think most of these would be high school players that chose to go on to college but that is not the case here, six were college players and only one was a high school player. The last time the Twins organization failed to sign a player was 2000 supplemental pick RHP Aaron Heilman.

Minnesota Twins first round draft picks 1965-2016

POS HS COLLEGE
C 2 1
1B 1 1
2B 0 1
SS 8 3
3B 4 2
OF 12 2
RHP 9 10
LHP 1 8
DID NOT SIGN 1  6
  38 34

They weren’t what we expected them to be

With no outs in the bottom of the seventh, coach brings in a new pitcher.

The June amateur draft started in 1965 and the Minnesota Twins have had 72 first round selections including supplemental/compensation picks. Nine of those first round picks have been left-handed pitchers (eight were collegiate picks and one was from high school) with Tyler Jay being the most recent lefty being selected in the first round in 2015. So how have these pitchers fared for the Twins?

1973Eddie Bane – Drafted in round 1, 11th over-all out of Arizona State University and went straight to the big leagues making his debut on July 4, 1973 at Met Stadium in a start against the Kansas City Royals. The 5’9″ Bane didn’t figure in the decision but pitched well in a 5-4 loss to the Royals. Injuries hindered Bane’s career but Bane himself said that he just wasn’t good enough to be a big league pitcher. Bane’s big league career consisted of 44 games for the Twins with a 7-13 record and 4.66 ERA. Bane became a free agent in October 1977 but never saw big league action again. WAR with the Twins was a -1.0.

1982Bryan Oelkers – Drafted in round 1, 4th over-all (selected one pick earlier than the Mets selection of Dwight Gooden) out of Wichita State University. Oelkers was a 20th round pick of the Chicago Cubs in 1979 but he chose not to sign.  Oelkers was only the second player born in Spain to reach the major leagues. Oelkers debuted in the big leagues with only 8 minor league games in his resume the following season on April 9, 1983 at the Kingdome in a start against the Mariners. Oelkers had a good start going 6.2 innings giving up only 3 hits and 2 earned runs but he came away with his first big league loss. Oelkers ended his first and only season with the Twins with an 0-5 record and a 8.65 while allowing 56 hits in 34.1 innings. In January of 1986 the Twins traded Bryan Oelkers and Ken Schrom to the Cleveland Indians for Ramon Romero and Roy Smith. Oelkers pitched for Cleveland in 1983 going 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA in 35 games. Oelkers pitched in the Expos, Cubs and Cardinals minor league systems  but never reached the big leagues again. WAR with the Twins was -1.3.

1992Dan Serafini – Was the Twins round 1 selection and 26th over-all out of Serra High School in San Mateo, California. In 1996 Baseball America had him rated as the 76th best prospect and the Twins called Dan Serafini up to pitch a game against the New York Yankees on June 25 at the Metrodome. Here is what Serafini had to say about that experience in a 2013 interview –

“It was not an easy team to pitch against for my first time playing in the big leagues, but it was a great memory. It was kind of funny. The Twins wouldn’t let me into the locker room before the game. They didn’t want any animosity in the locker room because they hadn’t sent anyone down (to Triple-A) yet. I had to stay in a hotel and then on game day I got to show up right before the game started so that I could get ready to play. It wasn’t the greatest experience, but it was still a good experience. I got to the big leagues!”

 You can see the entire interview here. Serafini’s start lasted 4.1 innings and he gave up 7 hits and 5 earned runs and was saddled with the loss in a Yankees 6-2 over Minnesota. That was the only game that Serafini pitched in a Twins uniform in 1996. Serafini spent portions of 1997 and 1998 in Minnesota but as spring training ended in 1999 the Twins sold Dan Serafini to the Chicago Cubs. Serafini career numbers with the Twins were  9-6 in 35 games with a 5.88 ERA. Serafini went on to pitch for the Cubs, Pirates, Reds and eventually the Rockies not to mention pitching in Japan, Mexico and Independent ball. Appears to have hung up his jock strap after the 2013 season. His WAR with Twins was a -0.6.

1994Travis Miller – Was a supplementary 1st round selection and 34th pick over-all from Kent State University for the Twins not being able to sign 1993 first round pick catcher Jason Varitek. Miller’s debut at the Metrodome on August 25, 1996 against the Rangers was one he would like to forget, one inning pitched with five hits and two walks including two home runs allowed and seven earned runs and he took the defeat in a 13-2 Twins loss. Miller however continued to pitch for the Twins albeit primarily in relief from 1996-2002 until the Twins released him in June of 2002 and he never pitched in the big leagues again. His Twins career lasted all or parts of seven seasons in which he appeared in 203 games winning 7 and losing 18 with a 5.05 ERA and a Twins WAR of 1.2.

1995Mark Redman – Was a Tigers 42 round pick in 1992 but did not sign and he went on to be the Twins first round selection in 1995 and 13th pick over-all. Debuted in a start against the Mariners at the Metrodome on July 24, 1999 and got a no decision for his efforts in which he lasted 4.2 innings and gave up 3 earned run on 4 hits and three walks. The Twins won the game 10-3. Redman was primarily a starter for Minnesota from 1999-2001 going 15-13 with a 4.86 ERA before being traded to the Tigers for closer Todd Jones. Redman was an All-Star with the Royals in 2006. Redman who pitched in the big leagues for 10 seasons with eight different teams posted a 3.6 WAR with the Twins.

 1998Ryan Mills – Was originally drafted in 1995 by the Yankees in round 13 but didn’t sign and the Twins scooped him up in round 1 with the 6th over-all pick out of Arizona State University and signed for a $2 million bonus. After seven seasons Mills had a 17-40 minor league record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP before the Twins told him to look for other employment. Mills never put on a Twins uniform.

Glen Perkins 20152004Glen Perkins – Perkins was selected by the Minnesota Twins in the first round and 22nd over-all of the 2004 amateur draft out of the University of Minnesota as compensation for losing Eddie Guardado and signed for a $1.425 million bonus. His big league debut took place September 21, 2006 at Fenway Park as a reliever in a Twins 6-0 loss and he pitched 1.1 innings without allowing a hit. Perkins was originally a starter but after putting up an ERA of 5.89 in 2009 and 5.82 in 2010 the Twins put him in the bullpen where he has flourished as a closer when he is not injured. Perkins has been a Minnesota Twin for all or parts of 11 seasons and has a Twins WAR of 8.8 and has made the All-Star team three times.

2009 – Matt Bashore – Bashore was a first round and 46th over-all supplemental pick for the loss of Dennys Reyes. Injuries kept Bashore from achieving his dream and the Twins let him go after the 2011 season when he pitched in Elizabethton for the second time after sitting out 2010 due to injury. Never wore a Twins uniform and walked away with a $751,550 Twins signing bonus.

2015 – Tyler Jay – Twins first round selection and sixth player taken over-all from Illinois when he was the highest ever MLB draft choice and signed by Minnesota for $3.8 million. Jay was a reliever in college but the Twins are transitioning him to a starting role. Jay was promoted to Chattanooga (AA) in July but only appeared in 5 games there pitching 14 innings before being placed on the DL in early August with a neck/shoulder injury. Additional info on his injury can be found here, not exactly promising news.

So there you are, 57 years worth of LHP drafted in the first round by the Minnesota Twins, nine left-handed pitchers, eight out of college and one out of high school drafted by the Twins and what have we had to show for it? Glen Perkins has been the only one to really pan out and he didn’t come into his own until he was moved to the bullpen. You expect your first round picks to be All-Star caliber players and the Twins have had just two. You have to wonder, with their dismal track record why do the Twins even bother drafting LHP in round one? Why waste a first round pick on LHP?

Let’s look at the rest of the league