Tag: Tigers

Swept out of Baltimore

As I was preparing to write this post just before the Twins/Orioles game today, I had a sudden bloody nose. I seldom get a bloody nose but for some reason today was that day and I just could not get it to stop bleeding. We were supposed to go to out for Easter dinner prepared by our son and his wife but my wife had to go alone because the blood just kept coming. I spent three hours in front of the television watching the Twins lose to the Orioles and almost get no-hit in the process all the while applying pressure to my nose to stop the bleeding. I even called a doctor for advice but all he told me to do was to keep applying pressure or to go to an urgent care center. He did not specify if he was talking about the Twins game or my nose. The bleeding in my nose finally stopped but I don’t think the Twins are as lucky as they ended up getting swept in Baltimore and now they have lost seven straight to the Orioles over two years and scored two runs or less in each game. Before all you Twins fans jump off the nearest bridge, you should be aware that the Twins are not the only team to get swept this week-end, the Yankees and Red Sox join the Twins at 0-3 in the American League and in the National league the Braves and the Giants are also without a win in 2012 with 3 losses. What are the odds huh? But we need to keep in mind it is only three games and if this is the longest losing streak the Twins encounter in 2012, we will be ecstatic. On the negative side you can say we have played three games and are already 3 games down in the standings to the Tigers who stand at 3-0. Let’s hope the team can turn it around at Target Field but it will not be easy against the Angels and the likes of CJ Wilson, Jared Weaver, and Dan Haren on the mound. We will be out there cheering the home team on.

 

A few notes about the Twins

The Twins sold out 10 of their 16 Spring  home games and surpassed the 100,000 mark in attendance for the 11th consecutive year and 14th time since they started training in Ft. Myers.

The Twins opened the 2012 season with 14 players on their 25-man roster who were not on the 2011 Opening Day roster: Ryan Doumit, Sean Burroughs, Jamey Carroll, Luke Hughes, Chris Parmelee, Trevor Plouffe, Ben Revere, Josh Willingham, Anthony Swarzak, Jared Burton, Jeff Gray, Alex Burnett, Liam Hendriks, and Matt Maloney. Of the players on the 25 man opening day roster, 14 players started their career as Minnesota Twins.

Manager Ron Gardenhire starts the 2012 season with 866 wins and needs 34 wins to reach 900.

Jamey Carroll’s 50 errors as an infielder since 2003 ties him for fifth-fewest in all of baseball.

Josh Willingham’s was charged with two errors on Saturday after making only two errors in all of 2011.

The Twins have now lost seven consecutive games against Baltimore dating back to last season. Oddly enough, the Twins have scored two runs-or-less in each of the seven games, having been outscored by the Orioles 37-7 during the seven-game stretch. This to one of the worst pitchings staffs in baseball.

The Twins were swept for the first time this season. In 2011, they were swept a total of 14 times, 1 one-game, 3 two-game series, 9 three-game series and 1 four-game series. The 14  sweeps were the most of a Twins team since the 1978 team when they were swept 17 times.

How Twins have fared on Opening Day

When the Minnesota Twins open the 2012 season in Baltimore on Friday, April 6 it will mark the 32nd time in 52 season openers that the team has opened their baseball season as road warriors. As a cold weather team, the Twins have only played the seasons first game at Met Stadium five times (63,65,66,71,81) and fifteen times at the Metrodome. In their short history at Target Field the Twins have never opened the season at home. The Twins have not charged out of the gate on a winning note over the years winning only won 24 and losing 27 season opening games. You can make a strong case that their first ever game as Minnesota Twins on April 11, 1961 in Yankee Stadium when Pedro Ramos shut out the New Yorks Yankees 6-0 on just 3 hits was their greatest season opener ever. The most frequest opening day opponent for the Twins has been the Oakland A’s. The Twins have played the Oakland A’s on opening day ten times (the last time in 1990), eight times in Oakland and twice at home (at the Met in 1981 and at the Metrodome in 1987) and the opening day series between these two teams is tied at five game each. The Twins have drawn the Seattle Mariners as opening day opponents four times, twice at home and twice on the road and the Twins have yet to beat the Mariners on opening day.

Pitcher Brad Radke has taken the mound for the Twins on opening day nine times including seven in a row between 1999 and 2005. Radke’s record on opening day was 4 wins, 2 losses, and 3 no decisions. Kent Hrbek has started 12 games at 1B on opening day, the most games that any Twins player has played at any position on opening day. A number of players have started opening day at their position nine times but Hrbek is still the leader in that category.

The Twins have opened the season in Baltimore only once before and that was back on April 11, 1967 in Memorial Stadium when Jim Kaat took the mound for the Twins but before he retired a single batter, the Orioles plated four runs and held on for a 6-3 win. The Twins only other season opener against the Baltimore Orioles occurred on April 2, 2007 at the Metrodome when the Twins behind starter Johan Sanatana and home runs from Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau won 7-4.

Here is who the Twins have faced and how they have fared on opening day.

TEAM WON LOST HOME AWAY YEARS
Yankees 2 2 2 2 61,65,88,89
Indians 2 1 2 1 63,64,04
Orioles 1 1 1 1 67,07
Royals 2 1 0 3 69,74,02
White Sox 1 1 1 1 70,93
Oakland A’s 5 5 2 8 72,73,77,79,80,81,86,87,90,91
Rangers 1 1 0 2 75,76
Mariners 0 4 2 2 78,82,05,09
Tigers 4 2 4 2 83,84,96,97,01,03
Red Sox 0 1 0 1 95
Blue Jays 1 3 1 3 98,99,06,11
Rays 0 1 1 0 00
LA Angels 1 1 1 1 08,10
Cal. Angels 1 1 1 1 85,94
Brewers 1 1 1 1 71,92
Senators 1 0 0 1 68
KC A’s 1 1 1 1 62,66
TOTALS 24 27 20 31

How they will finish in 2012

 

Mr. Einstein

With the 2012 baseball season just around the corner, if you don’t count that stupid two game series that the A’s and Mariners played and split in Japan, it is time for us here in Twins Trivia to look into the crystal ball and see what is in store for us this season. They say that baseball is a simple game, all you need to do is hit the ball, pitch the ball and pick-up the ball but I thought I would run it by Mr. Einstein just to be sure.

East

 1. Tampa Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
 

West

1. Los Angeles Angels 
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A’s
 

Central

1. Detroit Tigers (91-71)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80)
3. Minnesota Twins (78-84)
4. Kansas City Royals (76-86)
5. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
 

The Detroit Tigers are far and way the best team in the division and should be up by 10 games at the All-Star break and have a cake walk the rest of the way. However; having picked the Tigers to win the AL Central, the team is certainly not without its problems. The Tigers defense if they continue to pursue going down the Miguel Cabrera at 3B path will be atrocious but I see manager Jim Leyland changing that plan before he gets out of April. But even after Leyland addresses the 3B situation, the Bengals still have defense problems at 1B, 2B, SS, and LF. It will be fun to watch the Tigers hit but when they are in the field it will be a totally different story. The Tiger bullpen is solid although there is no way in the world that closer Jose Valverde has another year in 2012 like he had in 2011. The Tigers other major issue is starting pitching where they have a reigning Cy Young award winner in Justin Verlander followed by Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and the Tigers just announced that Drew Smyly won the last starting spot.  Who is Drew Smyly? Fister, and Scherzer are workable starters on a pennant contender but Porcello and who ever the Tigers have slotted for number 5 will not cut the mustard and the Tigers are going to have to make some moves to fill those holes.

The Cleveland Indians continue to improve albeit very slowly and the team has worked hard to try to improve its starting rotation that includes Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jiminez, Derek Lowe, Jeanmar Gomez, and Josh Tomlin. Twins cast-off Kevin Slowey could not make this starting rotation. Not a great starting rotation, but I have seen a lot worse. The Indians offense lost Gardy Sizemore to injury once again but Sizemore’s best days are now behind him anyway so that is not as great a loss as some may think. On offense the Indians need outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to bounce back after an injury plagued 2011, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to continue to show improvement after a breakout season last year, 2B Jason Kipnis to show that he is for real, Michael Brantley needs to prove he is a legit lead-off hitter, Lonnie Chisenhall to hit to his potential and to earn his way back as the Indians starting 3B, and for 35-year-old Travis Hafner to stay healthy and hit like he can as the teams DH.

I like the Kansas City Royals a lot because of the nice young players they have like Eric Hosmer at 1B, former 3B and now outfielder Alex Gordon, Billy Butler as the DH, Alcides Escobar at SS, and 3B Mike Moustakas. The Royals took a serious blow to the gut when closer Jokaim Soria went down with an elbow issue and will require TJ surgery but maybe the Royals dodged a bullet if free agent signee Jonathan Broxton can bounce back and become a workable closer once again, a long shot to be sure but still, a chance. The Royals starting pitching is what really needs to take a step forward if this team is to become a contender. Luke Hochevar anchors the rotation but he still young and is slowly improving. Jonathan Sanchez who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants has some potential and could become their number 2 starter. Veteran Bruce Chen continues to get his 10-12 wins each year although I don’t know how and Felipe Paulino slides in as the fourth starter although he could miss the first part of the season. Paulino has control issues but he can also strikeout some hitters. The fifth spot is open and the Royals would like to see youngster Danny Duffy lock up that spot. The Royals need to find a way to improve their starting pitching before they can be considered a serious challenger.

I pick the Chicago White Sox to finish in the Central Division basement. The mighty whities are a high-priced team that has under performed and is old to boot. White Sox GM Ken Williams has shown over the last few years that he doesn’t have a clue on how to be a big league general manager and the sooner he is fired the sooner the White Sox can once again can become a contender. The White Sox let Ozzie Guillen go as manager and hired the totally inexperienced former 3B Robin Ventura to manage this motley crew. The Sox have some proven starting pitching in John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jake Peavy but Peavy is always hurt and you can’t count on him to be a solid contributor. Former Twins pitcher Philip Humber was a pleasant surprise for the Sox last season but he remains unproven. The Sox have moved the young fireballing Chris Sale out of the pen and into a starters role so his transition will be closely watched. Since the whities traded their closer Sergio Santos to Toronto during the off-season they are in need of a closer and it appears that Matt Thornton will start the season in that role but indications are that Addison Reed will take over the closers role before the 2012 season comes to a merciful end for the Chicago White Sox.

That bring us to the Minnesota Twins who unfortunately will finish third in this weak AL Central with a 78-84 record. 78 wins does not sound like much but it is a nice 15 win improvement after last years dismal showing. The Twins fired GM Bill Smith and put former GM Terry Ryan back in the driver’s seat but Ryan is driving a Chevy and Twins management is selling it as a BMW and this past off-season instead of going into a rebuilding mode after losing Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and several others, the team decided to try to plug some leaks, drop their payroll by $15 million and see if they can regain their 2010 form. They signed 38 career utility player Jamey Carroll to be their starting shortstop, they signed Josh Willingham to provide some power as a corner outfielder and catcher Ryan Doumit to provide some pop as the back-up catcher. Last season catcher Joe Mauer had a horrible season hitting .287 and playing in just 82 games due to some mysterious injuries that still have not been explained but Mauer has worked hard this spring and you have to think he is back to being the All-Star catcher he should be. 1B Justin Morneau was even worse, hitting .227 with four home runs and playing in 69 games due to a variety of injuries but his major issue was the concussion he suffered in Toronto the previous season. Morneau started spring training playing 1B but midway through spring training he was hitting under .100 and the team decided that Morneau would be the primary DH this season although he would still see time at 1B but I would expect him playing first base less than 30 times this season. Morneau caught fire with his bat but still seldom makes an appearance at 1B in Florida. The Twins need Morneau to hit like he can and to stay healthy but that might be asking a lot based on what Justin has shown the past few years. The second baseman, often injured Alexi Casilla is in a make it or break it season and he has to prove he can play 150+ games, something he has never done. He has already missing games in spring training due to a sore knee. The leader of the Twins “fun bunch” is 3B Danny Valencia who is coming off a “sophomore slump” season in 2011 both with his bat and in the field. Valencia has to start to field at 3B like he cares and to hit more for average versus trying to be that dead pull hitter that he showed in 2011. A little humility by Valencia wouldn’t hurt either, Danny is not God’s gift to baseball even though he seems to think he is. Denard Span has to prove that he is over his own concussion and neck woes and that the Twins can count on him to play day in and day out in centerfield because he has a lot of ground to cover when Willingham is in left and Trevor Plouffe or Ryan Doumit is playing in right. Right field is probably a platoon between Plouffe, Doumit and maybe even Ben Revere who has a throwing arm like a pop gun. The Twins starting pitching is shaky at best and that is kind of funny because going back just a few years the Twins thought their starting pitching was a strength and some bloggers thought we had too much starting pitching but that was just before Kyle Gibson was deemed to need TJ surgery and Alex Wimmers had no clue where home plate was. Francisco Liriano has had a super spring and he is in his contract year but no Twins starter has shown as much “Jekyll and Hyde” personality as Francisco has. One day the man pitches a no-hitter and the next time out he can’t string two good innings together. Scott Baker can be really good but you can also count on Scott Baker to hit the DL at least once each season and this year he will start the season on the DL. I find Baker an interesting pitcher because he makes his living pitching high in the strike zone. What drives me crazy with Baker is that the man never shows any emotion. Get mad, slam your glove down, anything, just show me you are alive Scott. Carl Pavano is one of those guys that goes out and throws 200 innings and gives up 2225 hits but keeps his team in the game. This coming from a guy that had a huge contract with the Yankees between 2005-2008 and was hurt year after year while pitching in just 26 games. Nick Blackburn owns the Twins number 4 starting spot and the sinkerballing right hander is starting his fifth season in the Twins starting rotation. Blackburn, a pitch to contact guy has started at least 26 games each season although his innings pitched have decreased the last two years from a career high of 205 in 2009. Blackburn is one of those guys that gives hitters a comfortable collar but then there are other games when he gives up hit after hit. Blackburn has pitched a few big games for the Twins and has seems to rise to the occasion. The last spot in the starting rotation belongs to newly acquired Jason Marquis a 33-year-old right hander beginning his 13 big league season and is a lot like Pavano, gives up a lot of hits but keeps his team deep into games. Not a stellar rotation by any means but when they pitch well, the Twins have a chance as Gardy might tell you. How about the relievers? Who knows, the Twins resigned Matt Capps to be their closer after Joe Nathan hit the trail for Texas. Capps is not one of the elite closers in the league but does a team that is destined to finish under .500 need an elite closer? I don’t think so and I think Capps can be a good character on this team. Minnesota native lefty Glen Perkins had a breakout season both on the pitching front and out of Gardy’s doghouse. Perkins was outstanding last season and was the Twins best pitcher most of the year. Brian Duensing moves to the bullpen after a disappointing year in the starting rotation in 2011 and he should do a good job there based on what he has shown there previously. Matt Maloney and Jared Burton, both former Redlegs appear to have earned bullpen jobs. Anthony Swarzak is the long guy in the pen and sometimes starter and that role seems to fit him well. The final bullpen spot is still to be determined with Jeff Gray and Alex Burnett still battling it out as spring training winds down. Kyle Waldrop was in the running for the final spot too but he ended up taking a spot on the DL bench.

Ryan did what he could to get more offense on the field but in the process he sacrificed his defense, particularly in the outfield. The fact that the Twins will not have Justin Morneau at 1B will also hurt the other infielders who are used to having Morneau scoop their bad throws out of the dirt. The Twins have numerous holes but they do have some young players that are knocking on the door like Chris Parmelee at 1B, Brian Dozier at SS, Joe Benson in the outfield, Liam Hendriks as a starter and Carlos Gutierrez in the pen. It is starting pitching that the Twins crave but outside of Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers, their does not appear to be a lot there. If the youngsters do indeed turn out to be big leaguers, Ryan will have a core to build on. Deeper in the minors they have some players that could turn out to be stars in a few years. We as fans sometimes fall in love with our teams players and hate to see them go but baseball is like life, you have to keep moving forward and change is necessary, if you stand still,  it means that someone is gaining on you. Change is good, we need to embrace change. Going into 2011 Gardy and Smith talked about the need to add speed, no one talks about speed this year….. I wrote all this and didn’t mention Tsuyoshi Nishioka until just now, see how easy it is to forget?

When the smoke clears, Twins fans should be dancing on Target Plaza if this team can somehow play .500 ball, I unfortunately don’t see it happening in 2012. I just hope that the Twins play some exciting baseball the way it should be played and hopefully fans will still keep coming to Target Field to watch them.

Division winners – Rays, Tigers, Angels

Wild Cards – Yankees, Rangers

Tampa Rays move on to represent the American League in the World Series

This Day in Twins History – February 3, 1979

Rod Carew

The Twins traded 7-time batting champion 2B Rod Carew to the California Angels for outfielder Ken Landreaux, catcher Dave Engle, and pitchers Paul Hartzell and Brad Havens. A trade was demanded by Carew after team owner Calvin Griffith made his infamous speech to the Lions Club in Waseca, Minnesota back in September of 1978. According to some reports, Griffith first agreed to trade Carew to the San Francisco Giants but Carew had veto power and nixed that deal. At the time of the trade to California, Carew had been a fixture in the Twins line-up for 12 seasons hitting .334 with 2,085 hits and being named an All-Star each of those 12 seasons. Carew went on to play for the Angels for seven more seasons making post season play in 1979 and 1982  but Rodney never won a batting title as an Angel.

Outfielder Ken Landreaux only played in Minnesota for two years before the Twins traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers on March 30, 1981 for Mickey Hatcher and minor leaguers Kelly Snider and Matt Reeves, neither of whom ever played in a big league game. Landreaux hit .294 with 22 home runs and 145 RBI’s and had 19 stolen bases but what Ken Landreaux is best remembered for is his 31 game hitting streak early in 1980 which is still a Minnesota Twins record. Landreaux was an All-Star in 1980 while a Minnesota Twin. Landreaux played for the Dodgers from 1981-1987 and won a World Series ring there in 1981.

Dave Engle began his career with the Twins as an outfielder but was converted to a catcher in 1982 when his hitting was not considered up to par for an outfielder. Engle played for the Twins from 1981 through 1985 making the All-Star team in 1984 but he did not get a chance to appear in the game at Candlestick Park. In 1985 Engle started having throwing issues and his troubles appeared to have begun during batting practice one day when one of his throws glanced off the top of the protective screen and broke his pitcher’s nose. Engle then began lobbing his throws with a pronounced arc. Engle had the misfortune of having a base runner (Alfredo Griffin) stealing a base on one of his tosses back to the mound. Engle caught jst 17 games for Minnesota in 1985 and the Twins traded him to the Detroit Tigers in January of 1986. Dave went on to play for the Montreal Expos in 1987-1988 and closed out his big league career with the Milwaukee Brewers in 1989 but he only caught 18 games after he left Minnesota. Dave is the brother-in-law of another former Minnesota Twin, Tom Brunansky.

Right-handed pitcher Paul Hartzell only pitched in Minnesota during the 1979 season putting up a 6-10 record with a 5.36 ERA in 26 starts. The 6’5″ Hartzell was one of those pitch-to-contact pitchers who gave up 193 hits in 163 innings while striking out just 44 batters which was also the number of batters he walked that season. The Twins released Hartzell in April of 1980. Hartzell appeared in a handful of games with the Orioles in 1980 and the Brewers in 1984.

 

Lefty Brad Havens pitched for the Twins from 1981-1983 posting an 18-28 mark with a 5.00 ERA in 58 starts. The Twins sent Havens to Toledo in 1984 and he spent the entire season there before the team traded him to Baltimore in the spring of 1985 for pitcher Mark Brown. Havens pitched for the Orioles in 1985-1986 before moving on to the Dodgers in 1987-1988, the Indians in 1988-1989 and Havens closed out his big league career with the Tigers in 1989. Havens put in the big leagues for all or parts of eight seasons and finished his career with a 4.81 ERA and a 24-37 record.

The same day, the Twins make another deal when the Red Sox shipped outfielder Dave Coleman to Minnesota and the Twins give up 3B Larry Wolfe. Coleman spent the 1979 in AAA Toledo and never put on a Minnesota Twins uniform. In 1980-1981 Coleman played for the Yankees AAA team in Columbus but there is no information on how he ended up there.

Home run combo’s

A couple of days ago it was reported that the Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with free agent 1B Prince Fielder on a 9 year $214 million deal. This deal took place just a couple of days after the Tigers reported they may have lost C/1B/DH Victor Martinez for the season due to a torn ACL. Martinez only hit 12 home runs for Detroit last year but he knocked in 100 runs and he hit .330 while Miguel Cabrera hit .344 with 30 home runs while knocking in 108. The top two home run hitters for the Tigers were Cabrera with 31 and SS Jhonny Peralta who hit 21 long balls. Fielder, playing with the Milwaukee Brewers last season hit 38 while teammate Ryan Braun hit 33 for a total of 71 long balls between them. The big question is how do you keep both of these first baseman in the line-up, Cabrera has already been reported as saying that he can move to 3B but having Fielder at 1B and Cabrera at 3B seems like a real stretch, teams would be bunting left and right. Sure one of these guys can DH but both Fielder and Cabrera are over weight and playing in the field helps to control that to some degree, have one sitting on the bench can’t be a good thing. A home run combo like Cabrera and Fielder made me wonder what kind of power combinations the Twins have fielded over the years. Here is what I found.

Rank Year # Home Runs Player Player
1 1964 81 Killebrew – 49 Allison/Oliva – 32
2 1963 80 Killebrew – 45 Allison – 35
3 1962 77 Killebrew – 48 Allison – 29
4 1961 75 Killebrew – 46 Allison – 29
5 1969 73 Killebrew – 49 Oliva – 24
6 1967 68 Killebrew – 44 Allison – 24
7 1986 65 Gaetti – 34 Hrbek – 31
7 1987 65 Hrbek – 34 Gaetti – 31
7 2006 65 Morneau – 34 Hunter – 31
8 1966 64 Killebrew – 39 Oliva – 25
8 1970 64 Killebrew – 41 Oliva – 23
9 2009 62 Cuddyer – 32 Morneau – 30
10 1984 59 Brunansky – 32 Hrbek – 27
10 2007 59 Morneau – 31 Hunter – 28

 

Twins take a chance on Joel Zumaya

Joel Zumaya

According to several reports, the Twins have reached agreement, pending a physical of course, with former Detroit Tigers reliever Joel Zumaya on a deal that will give Zumaya anywhere between $800 and $1.7 million depending on him reaching certain incentives. Zumaya worked out for about 20 teams in December and a Twins official told Phil Mackey of 1500espn.com that they had clocked Zumaya throwing 92-94 during the work-out session. Zumaya drew interest from several teams but according to at least one report I saw Zumaya took the Twins offer because it was a major league contract, was guaranteed money and had an invite to spring training. Other reports indicate that the money is not guaranteed so we will see as the details become available. Although the money is not a huge sum, the Twins did not get a “steal” here as Zumaya made $915,000 in 2010 and $1.4 million in 2011 although he sat out the entire season due to injury. With his huge injury risk, I sure would not guarantee $800K.

Guaranteed money or not, this is an interesting signing by the Twins. The injury risk is certainly there but the upside reward if Zumaya can stay healthy is very tantalizing. We need to keep in mind that Zumaya is very injury prone even though several of his injuries are not baseball related and we should not set our expectations too high. I have already hear some comments that Zumaya can slide into the Twins closer role. I would say the chances of that are slim to none and I would be very happy to just get 60 innings out of Zumaya in 2012 and if Zumaya is pitching well and the Twins are not going anywhere come July, I would have no issue sending Zumaya to a contender for a good young prospect.

UPDATE JANUARY 19 – The Twins announced today that the Zumaya deal is official. There are reports floating around the internet that $400K of Zumaya $850K base are guaranteed and if Zumaya makes the 25 man roster out of spring training, he gets the entire $850K. Then there are still incentives Zumaya can reach to get up to $1.7 million based on innings pitched.

This Day in Twins History – January 16, 1986

The Twins trade 2B Tim Teufel and outfielder Pat Crosby to the New York Mets for outfielder Billy Beane and pitchers Bill Latham and Joe Klink.

Billy Beane, yes the same Billy Beane who went on to become the Oakland A's GM and main character in the movie Moneyball.

They also trade catcher Dave Engle to the Tigers for infielder Chris Pittaro and outfielder Alex Sanchez.  Engle, a .305 hitter as a 26-year-old catcher for the Twins in 1983 and an AL All-Star the following season. Engle came up as an outfielder but was converted to a catcher.

Engle started having throwing issues and his troubles appeared to have begun during batting practice one day when one of his throws glanced off the top of the protective screen and broke his pitcher’s nose. Engle then began lobbing his throws with a pronounced arc. Engle had the misfortune of having a base runner (Alfredo Griffin) stealing a base on one of his tosses back to the mound. He remained in the majors from 1985-89 but caught just 38 more games.

Can Twins bounce back in 2012? What does history tell us?

Our Minnesota Twins are coming off an atrocious 2011 where the team finished 63-99, a full 32 games behind the AL Central Division winning Detroit Tigers and in the process posting the second worst record in all of baseball. But 2011 is behind us now and we look forward to spring and a brand new season of baseball which hopefully will see the Twins back in winning form. In just a little over a month, Twins players from all over the globe will start to congregate in Ft. Myers, Florida to get into baseball shape which I think really means that they will get in a little stretching, jog a little, catch up on the off-season gossip and  start throwing the baseball around and take a few swings with those shiny new bats they just received during the off-season. When a bad season of baseball ends, there is always “next year” and that next year is just about upon us.

Long before baseball was played, back sometime between 1688-1744 the English poet Alexander Pope said “hope springs eternal in the human breast” and no truer words could be said about how baseball fans look at their favorite baseball teams. Forgotten are the numerous injuries, be they real or perceived, the dropped balls, the hitters that couldn’t run out a ground ball, the runners that had brain farts and stood there and watched as the hit and run unfolded in front of them, the fielders that couldn’t throw straight, the pitchers that keep hitting opponent bats, the perplexed pitching coach who wondered why his pitchers couldn’t find home plate even though it was always in the same spot, the manager who had to make up numerous line-ups each day because he didn’t know which of his players were in the mood to play that day, and of course the owner who was left to wonder what happened to his $113 million.

The injuries that plagued the team in 2011 are hopefully healed and with another year of experience under their belts, we all hope the Twins are back and playing baseball the way that Twins fans of today expect. We are not interested in seeing the Twins play ball as they did say between 1971-1986 when they never won more than 85 games and finished as high as second only once, we expect to see a winning team on the field or at least a team that is playing like they want to win versus the 2011 bunch that quit early and often.

So, what does history tell us will happen to the Twins in 2012? I want you to keep reading, but the bottom line is that while miracles can happen, it sure does not look good. The Twins were 31 games worse in 2011 than they were in 2010, 31 games, only once in franchise history had a Senators/Twins team played so much worse than they had the previous season and those were the Washington Senators of 1934 who finished the season 33 games worse with a 66-86 mark after advancing to the World Series in 1933 with a 99-53 record. The following season (1935) they won 67 games, one more than the year before.

So how have Senators and Twins teams bounced back from such dismal seasons? The best the Senators could ever do was improve by 27 games back between 1911-1912 and the best the Twins have done since 1961 is improve by 23 games as the 1965 Twins did when they won 102 games coming off a 79 win season in 1964.

But let’s look at more modern times so we will look at the seasons between 1997 and 2011 because it probably makes for a fairer comparison based on free agency and player movement of today. In the last 15 seasons here is what has happened in the AL Central Division.

The Kansas City Royals worst drop-off was in 2004 when the team finished 25 games worse than they did in 2003. The following season, 2005, the Royals finished 2 games worse. The best improvement that the Royals have shown their fans was when they finished 21 games better in 2003 than they had shown in 2002.

The Chicago White Sox worst drop-off was in 2007 when the team finished 18 games worse than they did in 2006. The following season, 2008, the mighty whitey’s finished 17 games better. The best improvement that the White Sox fans have seen was when they finished 20 games better in 2000 than they had shown in 1999.

The Cleveland Indians worst drop-off was in 2002 when the team finished 17 games worse than they did in 2001. The following season, 2003, the Indians finished 6 games worse. The best improvement that the Indians fans have seen was when they finished 18 games better in 2007 than they had shown in 2006.

The Detroit Tigers worst drop-off was 14 games and it happened twice, once between 1997 and 1998 and again from 2007 to 2008. The following season in 1999 the team improved by 4 games and in 2009 the team improved by 12 games. The best improvement that the Tigers have seen was when they finished 29 games better in 2004 (to a 72-90 season) than they had shown in 2003, but, 2003 was the season the Tigers put up a pathetic 43-119 record.

That brings us to the Twins, whose worst drop-off was 31 games in 2011 from their 2010 season. The biggest improvement the Twins have shown during this 15 year period was in 2001 (TK’s last season as manager) when they finished 16 games better than what they showed us in 2000. In the past 15 years the Twins have improved their record from the previous season 8 times for an average improvement in games won over the previous season of 8 games. On the minus side their record has gotten worse from the previous season 7 times for an average of -11.29 but that is obviously skewed by the big -31 of 2011. If the 2012 Twins could match their biggest improvement of say 16 games as they did in 2001, that still only moves the Twins 2012 record up to 79-83. The Twins have to improve by 18 games just to reach the .500 mark and would have to improve by 27 games to reach the 90 win mark. It does not look promising.

The Twins have improved their previous years mark by 18 games or better on 4 occassions. The feat was accomplished by the 1991 team that improved by 21 games, the 1969 team that improved by 18 games, the 1965 team that improved by 23 games and the 1962 team that was 21 games better than the 1961 team. Four times in 50 seasons, not good odds for sure and remember, an 18 game improvement only takes the team to an 81-81 record, or .500 baseball. The team has lost Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey and a number of bit players but then again, they lost 99 games when they had these guys. I know they added Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and brought back Matt Capps but how many wins will these guys put in the “W” column?

What this team needs in order to play respectable baseball is for Joe Mauer to step back to earth from the “Twilight Zone” that he was in most of last year and catch 130 games and play 1B and DH for 10-15 more. I see no reason why this can’t happen, Mauer should come out of the gate madder than hell and show everyone that 2011 was a fluke. I will believe that when I see it. The next issue is Justin Morneau, here I am not nearly as optimistic. Justin was just a shell of himself in 2011 and I worry that Justin Morneau’s baseball career is coming to a premature end. That would be so sad as Justin should have many more years in him as a productive Twins first baseman. I hope I am totally wrong about Morneau, but if I was a betting man I would say “show me you still got it” Justin. I hope that Danny Valencia thought long and hard about his baseball career since the 2011 season ended because if he continues to play in 2012 like he did in 2011, he will be receiving his fan mail in Rochester come the middle of May. Valencia might not be the .311 hitter he was in 2010 but he sure better not be the .246 hitter he was in 2011 either. A little more work with the glove wouldn’t hurt Danny either. The Twins outfield is a mess, Willingham is a left fielder and the Twins need him to play right because Ben Revere can’t throw out his grandmother. So that forces the team to play Revere in center which is OK in itself but that means you need to move Span to right field but Span says he wants to play center. In my humble opinion, any outfield with Revere and Span both playing at the same time is a bad thing. I am not sure how things are going to shake out but come the second half of 2012, Joe Benson will be playing in the Twins outfield some where. The Twins signed Jamey Carroll to play short but the man has never had a full-time job in 10 big league seasons and he will be 38 before the Twins open the exhibition season. Is that a move that a contending team makes? We can hope that Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes back to life and show us that he really is a professional baseball player……come on, really, there is a chance. Alexi Casilla at 2B is an enigma but I still have hope for this 27-year-old with parts of six big league season under his belt. The bullpen is a couple of sharp knives short of a complete set and the starting staff of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, and Jason Marquis would make any manager nervous.

So here it is, you make up your mind, can the Twins compete or will they have to fight and scratch like hell just to reach the .500 mark? Me? Come October, I think we should all be dancing on Target Plaza celebrating manager Ron Gardenhire’s second manager of the year award with a cold drink in our hand if this collection of Twins can win half of their games in 2012. However; if this this team wins 70 or fewer games in 2012, manager Ron Gardenhire may be looking for a job.

This Day in Twins History – December 25, 1989

Popular former Minnesota Twins player and manager Billy Martin dies in an automobile accident in Binghamton,  New  York at the age of 61. Billy served as the Twins fourth skipper during the 1969 season and led the Twins to a first place finish only to lose to the Baltimore Orioles 3 games to none.

Alfred Manual Martin played in the major leagues with the Yankees from 1950-1957, Kansas City A’s in 1957, the Detroit Tigers in 1958, the Cleveland Indians in 1959, the Cincinnati Reds in 1960, and the Milwaukee Braves and Minnesota Twins in 1961. Martin, 33 at the time, only played in 108 games hitting .246 for the Twins before retiring as an active player. The feisty Martin managed the Twins in 1969, the Detroit Tigers in 1971-1973, the Texas Rangers in 1973-1975, the New York Yankees from 1975-1979, the Oakland A’s from 1980-1982 and the Yankees again in 1983, 1985, and 1988. In sixteen years and 2,267 games as a manager, Martin had a 1,253 and 1,013 won-lost record while winning two pennants and one World Series title.

I had written an earlier article about Billy that you can see here.

Money can’t buy us happiness

The Twins opening day payroll in 2011 was about $113 million and the Twins finished last in the AL Central with a 63-99 record. Now the Twins are saying the payroll in 2012 will be around the $100 million mark but my guess is that it will be a bit lower than that, maybe closer to $95 million. It is easy to say that the Twins have to spend their way out of fifth place in the Central division but money alone is not the answer. Sure the Twins have a beautiful new ballpark but the Twins are far from playing with the big boys like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and the Cubs and their huge revenue numbers, even the Chicago White Sox had more in the revenue stream than the Twins did in 2010 according to Forbes Magazine. I thought it would be interesting to look back over the last 10 years and see how the AL Central division compared from a salary perspective and here is what I found using the Cot’s Baseball Contract site as my source. The chart below is in millions of dollars.

Year Twins Indians Tigers White Sox Royals Average Div. Win
2011 $113.23 $49.42 $106.95 $127.78 $38.17 $87.11 Tigers
2010 $97.65 $61.45 $133.99 $103.08 $74.98 $94.23 Twins
2009 $65.29 $81.57 $115.08 $96.06 $70.51 $85.70 Twins
2008 $56.93 $78.97 $137.68 $121.18 $58.24 $90.60 White Sox
2007 $71.43 $61.67 $95.18 $108.67 $67.16 $80.82 Indians
2006 $63.39 $56.03 $82.61 $102.75 $47.29 $70.41 Twins
2005 $56.18 $41.50 $69.09 $75.17 $36.88 $55.76 White Sox
2004 $53.58 $34.31 $46.83 $65.21 $47.60 $49.51 Twins
2003 $55.50 $48.58 $49.16 $51.01 $40.51 $48.95 Twins
2002 $40.22 $78.90 $55.04 $57.05 $47.25 $55.69 Twins
TOTAL $673.40 $592.40 $891.61 $907.96 $528.59

Since 2002, only one AL Central division team has advanced to the World Series and that was the 2005 Chicago White Sox team that beat the Houston Astros 4 games to zip. I know, you can’t win if you don’t spend money but it is all about how you use the money you do have. I guess I have not been paying too much attention to the dollars spent in the Central division and I was more than a little surprised to see that the Mighty Whitey’s have spent over $100 million in five of the last six years and that the Tigers have spent in excess of $106 million four years in a row. I find it interesting that the Twins spent more than the division average five times and less than the division average five times. You can find more Twins historical salary information on our Twins Salaries page.

It will be interesting to see how Mr. Ryan distributes the resources at his disposal in the next few weeks as the Hot Stove League heats up with the GM meetings taking place in a few days. I like free agents Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel as much as the next Twins fan but the Twins were 63-99 for a reason last year and changes obviously need to take place. I have no issue bringing back Cuddyer (although I don’t see it happening) for one year as insurance to cover for Morneau at 1B or to play RF but I don’t pay him more than $10 million. If you aren’t making changes than you are standing still and those moans and groans you heard at Target Field this past summer were the sounds of the other Central division teams blowing past us. It is easy to get complacent in baseball and think that all you need to do is throw your glove on the field and you will win without putting in the up-front work starting in Spring Training. I think a number of Twins players felt someone owed them the division title and 2011 was a hard lesson for everyone.