Glimpse of the future?

Oswaldo Arcia
Oswaldo Arcia

With Twins outfielder Wilkin Ramirez out on paternity leave for  several days the ballclub needed to make a move and the move they made was to bring up one of their top prospects, outfielder Oswaldo Arcia. Arcia  played in New Britain last season and has just 9 games of AAA experience under his belt but so far he is pounding AAA pitching to the tune of a .414 batting average in 34 plate appearances with 8 runs scored, 3 home runs and 8 RBI’s. Hopefully the Twins did not bring Arcia up to warm the bench for a couple of days so I think it will be fun to watch this young man get his first shot at the big leagues. Arcia is more of a corner outfielder but he has played centerfield in the minors so I would not be shocked if Gardy had him playing in center for at least one game. He can’t play Arcia in center much more than that because you can’t have Hicks sitting on the bench either, they both need to play. I heard Gardy on his Sunday morning radio show state that it might be time to move Hicks out of the leadoff spot and I couldn’t agree more. It is not good to see your lead-off hitter strike out as much as Hicks does but what bothers me about Hicks striking out is that he takes so many called third strikes. At least take a hack at the ball, who knows, you might hit it. It is easy to be down on Hicks now with him hitting .047 and leading the league in whiffs and he may have to be sent down for a while to regain his confidence but the man is going to be a solid big league player, just give him a little time.

The poor start by Hicks has taken the spotlight off 2B Brian Dozier to a large degree but Dozier needs to turn it around and turn it around soon. Dozier is playing a decent 2B but hitting .161 will not cut it, particularly when you have young Eduardo Escobar scratching at Gardy’s door for more playing time. I think you are going to start seeing Gardy start to make some changes in his line-up and batting order soon, he can’t afford to sit back and watch this team flail away and say that good pitching stops good hitting, not every pitcher the Twins faced this year is an all-star. It would be nice to see what the Twins might look like playing in some decent weather for a change but if you look at the Twins schedule it might not happen for some time.

April not kind to the Twins

baseball in the snowIt is too early to tell what kind of team the Twins have for 2013 but from what I have seen in the nine games they have played so far, it is a team that is playing better than what it has the last two seasons. I am not saying they are playoff bound but the team is at least entertaining to watch and I hope they can start to gel as a team over time. Yes, the Twins are 4-5 but you could argue that two of those wins were gifts when outfielders from the Tigers and Orioles let a ball drop between them and gave the Twins gift runs. Everybody was worried about the starting pitching going in to 2013 but it is the hitting so far that has been missing. Hicks has been terrible with the bat but he is not the total reason this team is not hitting well. So far this year the 3-5 hitters have scored 11 runs, hit 2 home runs,  and have 9 RBI’s.  That is just plain terrible, Gardy needs to do something to shake-up this line-up. What scares me is that they are not playing all that well in the field either and they keep making mistakes on the base paths that are just plain embarrassing. The Twins have played just 9 games so the sample size is very small but here are some stats comparing the Twins to the rest of the league in various categories.

The Twins are 4-5 and in fourth place in the AL Central 2 games behind the division leading Kansas City Royals. The Twins have lost 3 games in a row.

The team is hitting .232 (13th place) and have scored 33 runs. Only the White Sox with 31 and the Rays with 32 have scored less.

The Twins and the Oakland A’s hitters lead the league in walks with 35.

Only the Houston Astros with 101 have struck out more frequently than the Twins 79 strikeouts.

Twins pitchers have a 4.09 ERA, good for 6th best and have given up only 4 home runs, the fewest in the league. Who would have thought that could happen, even after just 9 games?

Twins pitchers have the fewest strikeouts in the league and opponents are hitting .284 off Twins and Blue Jays pitchers, only the Yankees pitchers who are getting hit at a .306 clip are worse.

Twins relievers have a 2.73 ERA (3rd best) and are holding opposing hitters to a .231 average.

The Twins and the Indians each have 7 errors and only the Angels, Blue Jays, and White Sox with 8 have committed more miscues.

Everyone knows that Aaron Hicks is striking out at a frightening pace of 16 KO’s in 35 at bats in the leadoff position. But have you noticed that Josh Willingham has struck out 13 times in 29 at bats and that Joe Mauer has struck out 10 times in 40 at bats. In Willingham’s defense he also has 9 walks but Mauer and Hicks have 2 walks apiece. You have to wonder what might be bothering Mauer, his catching seems sub par this year too. Mauer has let a number of balls get by him and his throws to second base shouldn’t scare any opposing baserunners.

We will get a better feel for how good or bad the Twins really are very soon as they will play at home over the next 2 weeks or so as 12 of their next 15 games will be played at Target Field. We should also know by the time April is over if Aaron Hicks can catch his breath and turn things around before he finds himself in Gardy’s doghouse and on his way to Rochester. I sure hope so because the Twins don’t currently have a good plan B for center field unless Joe Benson catches fire. Hicks not running out his pop-up on Wednesday was obvious to anyone who watched the game but I didn’t like Gardy being so public about how upset he was about the rookie’s mistake. The Twins veterans like Morneau, Mauer, or Willingham should be taking care of issues like this, Gardy should have not gone public with his thoughts.

The Twins starting pitching is still a huge question mark and it will be interesting to see what Scott Diamond looks like in 2013. Mike Pelfrey has shown less than what most people expected, Hendriks has pitched like………Hendriks, I think you need to keep sending him out there every five days for a while and see what you get. I have liked Kevin Correia since they signed him but I know he can’t keep pitching like he has. Hopefully Cole De Vries can get healthy and fight for a spot again. The biggest disappointment to me so far has been Vance Worley but it is still way too early to determine anything.

The Twins drew the short straw from MLB this year from a schedule perspective with all those April home games and Mother Nature has not been as kind to the Twins as it has in the past but it is what it is. Now Dave St. Peter and the Twins find themselves having to make a hard decision in a no win situation today trying to determine if they should play the New York Mets tonight when temperatures are expected to be in the low 30’s with snow flurries predicted. It sounds like the Twins had all the 6 inches or so of snow removed from the ballpark yesterday and last night. It is a tough call because the Mets will only make one trip to Minnesota this year and the weather prediction for the rest of the week-end is bad with possible rain on Sunday too. As a matter of fact the temps are not scheduled to get out of the 40’s for the next week. So it makes sense to try to get the game in tonight but what about the fans comfort? Heaters or not, it will be miserable at Target Field and today’s game is scheduled to be a night game. The Twins are having trouble drawing fans as it is and when you add in cold and or snowy and wet weather you have a perfect scenario for Twins fans staying home and watching the game on TV. No matter what choice the Twins make, lots of Twins fans will be unhappy. It is kind of perfect storm and the Twins seemed doomed to come out on the losing end. As I stated earlier, predicted temperatures for the next week are in the 40’s and this entire Twins home stand will not see a temperature above 50 and all three games against the Angels after the Mets leave town are night games. OUCH!

You add in the little dust-up the other day about the Twins charging $15 for a group of 60 fans to watch Twins take batting practice and then withdrawing the offer later in the day and you have a rough start to the 2013 season for the Minnesota Twins and their fans.

Twins Trivia 2013 predictions

crystal ballThe 2013 season is just around the corner so it is time to make my annual predictions on who will finish where and who the 2013 World Series champion will be.

AL East
 
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays (wild card)
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
 
AL Central
 
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals (wild card)
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
 
AL West
 
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland A’s
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
 
NL East
 
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves (wild card)
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
 
NL Central
 
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates (wild card)
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
 
NL West
 
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres

 

The Detroit Tigers and the Washington Nationals play in the World Series with the Washington Nationals winning it all in 6 games.

 ……………………………………

The Minnesota Twins 2013 season opener at Target Field against the Detroit Tigers is just over a week away so after watching and listening to Twins in spring training and consulting with some of the worlds foremost baseball experts, here is what I see happening in 2013.

Einstein 2013

 

  1. Josh Willingham will be traded and Oswaldo Arcia will be called up to take over a starting outfield position. Arcia will fill the role nicely.
  2. Trevor Plouffe will not be able to hang on to the starting job due to injuries and inconsistent hitting and fielding and third base will be a black hole all season with Jamey Carroll, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Sobolewski all getting a shot to win the job and none of these guys turns out to be the answer. The Twins will make a deal to fill the 3B hole but it will just be a stop-gap as they wait for Miguel Sano to finally fill the hole late in 2014.
  3. Anthony Swarzak and Tyler Robertson will lose their bullpen jobs and will be replaced by PJ Walters and Ryan Pressly.
  4. Jeff Clement will win a roster spot and be the Twins third catcher leaving Drew Butera out in the cold but not for long because the Twins will do him right by trading him to a team that will give him the back-up catching job.
  5. Pedro Florimon and Brian Dozier give the Twins their first decent infield combo in some time playing well in the field and hitting better than expected.
  6. The Twins will open the season with a starting staff of Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Cole De Vries, with Scott Diamond joining the staff in early April. Kyle Gibson will be called up by June 1 and will replace….. Mike Pelfrey in the rotation.
  7. Manager Ron Gardenhire not only makes it through the season but gets a new two-year deal.
  8. Justin Morneau will be resigned to a multi-year deal before the All-Star game and will continue to call Minnesota home.
  9. Tickets to watch the Twins will be easy to get as attendance at Target Field plummets by about 20% and the Twins will be lucky to hit 2.2 million in attendance with attendance dropping by over a half million.

Manager ejections by the numbers

Back in December 2010 I did a post about Twins player ejections and determined that the Twins all time leader in player ejections was Torii Hunter with five. I mentioned in that article that I would look at manager ejections in the future and I have finally gotten around to doing it. Torii was ejected for the sixth time as a Twin on June 10, 2015 (updated 6/11/2015).

The Twins have had 12 managers since 1961 with some serving in that role for as little as 66 games but in the last 16 seasons they have had just two managers, Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire. According to the Twins, each player or manager ejected has to pay their own fines but I personally have my doubts about that. So let’s take a closer look at these managers and see how many times they ran afoul of an umpire. We will start at the bottom and work our way up the list of Twins managers career ejections.

0 –  Cookie Lavagetto managed in the majors for all or parts of five different seasons with the Washington Senators and the Twins managing a total of 657 games and during that time he was never ejected. Cookie was ejected once as a player (10 seasons) and twice as a coach (12 seasons).

1 – Johnny Goryl managed the Twins for just 73 games in the latter part of 1980 and early portion of 1981 and got the “out” sign from the umps just once as the Twins manager but he was ejected once as a player (6 seasons) and three times as a coach (13 seasons).

2 –  You wouldn’t expect to find the fiery Billy Martin this low on the ejection list but he only stayed around for one season as the Twins skipper and the umpires gave him the heave-ho just twice as the Twins manager but he was ejected a total of 46 times in his 16 seasons as a major league manager but he doesn’t even make the top 10 list. Billy also had 6 ejections during his 11 years as a player but as a coach (4 seasons) he never had to leave the game early.

3 – The mild-mannered players manager Sam Mele took the Twins to the 1965 World Series and was the Twins manager for all or parts of seven seasons. Mele hit the showers early just three times as the Twins manager and he did not have any run-ins with the umps during his 10 seasons as a player or two years as a coach.

4 – The only managing gig that Cal Ermer ever had was with the Twins for part of 1967 and all of 1968 and he had disagreements with umpires on four occasions that called for an early dismissal. Ermer spent 7 seasons in the minors as a player but never got the call to the big leagues as a player. Ermer coached for four seasons and was asked to leave the premises early in two games.

4 – Ray Miller was another Twins manager that didn’t last a full season, managing part of 1985 and most of 1986 but during that time he managed to find himself in the umpires cross-hairs four times and he clocked a total of 10 career ejections during his four seasons as a big league manager. Since he never played in the big leagues he had no ejections as a player but did get thrown out of one game while serving as a coach.

4 – Bill Rigney was a big league manager for 18 season between 1956-1976 and has notched 49 manager ejections, four of them were with the Minnesota Twins. Rigney was in the big leagues as a player for eight seasons and the umpires had him end his day early five more times. (SABR now has Rigney with 51 career ejections.)

5 – Paul Molitor was named as the Twins 13th manager in November 2014. Molitor has five career ejections as a player and three ejections as a coach (all in 2001) on his resume. Molitor earned his first ejection as a manager at Target Field on June 10, 2015 when he came out to back up Torii Hunter who was arguing a called strike three in a game against the Kansas City Royals. Torii Hunter was also ejected. Last ejection April 20, 2017.

5 – Tom Kelly was named the Twins skipper late in 1986 and hung on to that role through the 2001 season before resigning. TK ended up winning two World Series and winning 1,140 of the 2,385 games he managed.  During this stretch TK was booted out of only 5 games, once each in 1987, 1990, 1998, 1999, and in 2000. He was sent packing for disagreeing on calls at first base twice and arguing balls and strikes three times. Kelly played in the big leagues during one season and coached for four more but he didn’t have any issues with the umpires that called for his dismissal.

5 – Frank Quilici took over from Bill Rigney as the manager about midway in 1972 and had that role through 1975. During Frank’s managing career the umpires asked him to head for an early shower five times. Frank played in the bigs during five different seasons and coached for two more without irritating any of the umpires, at least to the point of ejection.

7 – Gene Mauch managed for 26 seasons winning 1,901 of the 3,940 games with stops in Philadelphia, Montreal, Minnesota and California. The umpires saw fit to send Mauch packing a total of 43 times, seven of these early exits came as the Twins skipper. Mauch played in the majors for nine seasons and had a number of disagreements and the men in blue saw to it that Mauch was neither seen nor heard five times.

10 – Who would have thought that Billy Gardner would be so disagreeable that in his six seasons as a big league manager (five in Minnesota and one in KC) that umpires would send him home early 10 times (all as a Twins manager). I guess it was the fact that Gardner managed some pretty bad teams including the 1982 60-102 bunch that maybe drove him over the edge at times. It is Gardner however that is credited with molding these youngsters into ball players that would help the Twins win it all in 87 and 91. Gardner played big league ball in 10 different seasons and coached in five more but he never was ejected from a game until he became a manager.

 

Gardy is on his way to an early shower in 2006 as NIck Punto looks on.
Gardy is on his way to an early shower in 2006 as NIck Punto looks on.

63 – That bring us to the current Twins manager, Ron Gardenhire. Gardy is a player and fan friendly manager that has had more than his share of disagreements with major league umpires, so many in fact that he has now moved up to a tie for 10th on the list of all-time MLB career manager ejections list. With just four more “your outta here” by the umpires Gardy will pass Joe Torre and have 9th place all to himself. The only active manager ahead of Gardenhire is Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland with 68 and you have to figure he will keep adding to his ejection total.  As Gardy prepares for his 12th season as the Twins manager he already had 63 ejections on his resume as a manager plus one additional early exit as a coach back in 1998. One of Gardy’s 63 ejections was during game 2 of the 2010 ALDS against the New York Yankees at Target field. The Twins have played in Minnesota for 52 seasons and had eleven managers prior to Gardenhire and when you add up all those manager ejections you get a total of 45. Gardy has managed a total of 1,773 Twins games so that means he gets ejected once every 28.14 games and averages just under 6 early showers a season. Gardenhire has a high of 8 ejections in a season twice and his low was just 3 ejections and that was in 2012, maybe Gardy is starting to mellow or he just realized he had a bad team last year and didn’t want to waste his energy arguing with the umpires.

Hunter Wendelstedt III
Hunter Wendelstedt III

So who is the man who has sent Gardy to the showers the most frequently over the years? The one and only Hunter Wendelstedt III has called for an early exit by Gardy on five occasions and he only has 63 career ejections so Gardy has 12.6% of Wendelstedt’s ejections. Isn’t it strange that Gardy has been ejected 63 times and Wendelstedt has 63 ejections on his career resume too. Next on the list are Chris Guccione and Gerry Davis with four Gardenhire ejections each. The first time that Gardy was run by Wendelstedt was on July 18, 2005 in a 3-2 loss at the Metrodome. Gardy was not pleased and had this to say after the game but I should warn you that if you have young children near by you might want to “eject them from the room” before you hit the play button. If you are listening to this at work you might want to turn the volume down.

Gardy tirade

By the way, the umpire with the most career ejections is Bill Klem with 256 but he umpired 5,369 games between 1905-1941 and is in the Hall of Fame. The active umpire with the most career ejections is Bob Davidson with 156.

If you look back in franchise history the Washington Senators had  18 different managers from 1901 -1960 (Bucky Harris served in that capacity three different times)  and these managers were ejected a grand total of 43 times with Bucky Harris leading the pack with 12 heave-ho’s but he managed the Senators for 18 seasons and 2,776 games.

The best manager meltdown I think I have ever seen has to be Phillip Wellman on June 1, 2007 when he was the skipper for the AA Mississippi Braves. Here is a video clip of the epic ejection, Wellman ended up with a 3 game suspension for his efforts.

http://youtu.be/Ggy6WGUFaYs

Looking through various MLB record and stats and getting some help from David Vincent at SABR I was able to get a list of MLB managers that have been thrown out of a game at least 50 times during their career’s. I added in the number of games they managed and came up with a ratio of how often they get ejected. The lower the “games per ejection” the more often the manager has been ejected. You can see that Ron Gardenhire is in some pretty select company.

Managers with 50 or more ejections (through 2014 season)

  Ejections Manager Games Managed Games per Ejection
1. 161 Bobby Cox# 4,501 27.96
2. 118 John McGraw# 4,768 40.41
3. 94 Earl Weaver# 2,541 27.03
3. 94 Leo Durocher# 3,738 39.77
5. 86 Tony LaRussa# 5,094 59.23
6. 80 Paul Richards 1,837 22.96
6. 80 Frankie Frisch# 2,246 28.08
8. 72 Jim Leyland 3,496 48.56
8. 72 Ron Gardenhire 2,107 29.26
10. 66 Joe Torre# 4,292 65.03
11. 63 Lou Piniella 3,544 56.25
12. 63 Bruce Bochy* 3,222 51.14
13. 58 Clark Griffith# 2,917 50.29
14. 52 Charlie Manual 1,794 34.50
15. 51 Bill Rigney 2,561 50.22
16. 50 Mike Hargrove 2,350 47.00

 

Let’s take a look at each baseball franchise and see which of their managers has the most ejections to his credit. You might note that some of these managers made the list more than once. Data is current through the 2013 season.

 

Rank Team Manager Ejections Games managed that team
1 Braves Bobby Cox 140 3,860
2 Giants John McGraw 105 4,424
3 Orioles Earl Weaver 94 2,541
4 Twins Ron Gardenhire 72 2,107
5 Pirates Frankie Frisch 47 1,085
6 Dodgers Tom Lasorda 43 3,040
7 Cardinals Tony LaRussa 39 2,591
8 Phillies Charlie Manual 41 1,415
9 Angels Mike Scioscia 36 2,430
10 Padres Bruce Bochy 33 1,926
11 Indians Mike Hargrove 29 1,312
12 White Sox Jimmy Dykes 28 1,850
12 White Sox Paul Richards 28 774
12 Mariners Lou Piniella 28 1,551
12 Blue Jays Cito Gaston 28 1,731
16 Rays Joe Maddon 27 1,134
17 Tigers Jim Leyland 30 1,294
18 Red Sox Terry Francona 25 1,296
18 Brewers Phil Garner 25 1,180
18 Brewers Ned Yost 25 959
21 Yankees Ralph Houk 23 1,757
21 Reds Sparky Anderson 23 1,450
21 Mets Joe Torre 23 709
24 A’s Tony LaRussa 22 1,471
24 Rockies Clint Hurdle 22 1,159
26 Rangers Bobby Valentine 20 1,186
27 Nationals/Expos Buck Rodgers 18 1,020
28 Cubs Leo Durocher 17 1,065
29 Diamondbacks Bob Melvin 15 677
29 Royals Buddy Bell 15 436
31 Astros Phil Garner 13 530
32 Marlins Fredi Gonzalez 11 555

UPDATE August 29, 2013 – Ron Gardenhire was ejected from the Twins/Royals game earlier today giving him 67 manager ejections or if you chose not to count playoff (1) ejections he stands at 66.

UPDATE September 12, 2013 – Ron Gardenhire was ejected from the Twins/A’s game last night giving him 68 manager ejections or if you chose not to count playoff (1) ejections he stands at 67.

UPDATE May 11, 2014 – Ron Gardenhire was ejected from the Twins/Tigers game today giving him 68 regular season ejections or if you chose to also include playoff (1) ejections he stands at 69.

UPDATE June 22, 2014 – Ron Gardenhire was ejected from today’s Twins/White Sox game at Target Field giving him 69 regular season ejections or if you chose to also include playoff (1) ejections he stands at 70.

UPDATE July 5, 2014 – Ron Gardenhire was ejected from today’s Twins/Yankees game at Target Field giving him 70 regular season ejections or if you chose to also include playoff (1) ejections he stands at 71.

UPDATE July 30, 2014 – Ron Gardenhire was ejected from yesterday’s Twins/Royals game at Kauffman Stadium giving him 71 regular season ejections or if you chose to also include playoff (1) ejections he stands at 72.

UPDATE August 19, 2014 – Ron Gardenhire was ejected from yesterday’s Twins/Royals game at Target Field giving him 72 regular season ejections or if you chose to also include playoff (1) ejections he stands at 73. This ejection moved Gardy into a tie with Jim Leyland for 8th place on the all-time manager ejection list

Update June 11, 2015 – Paul Molitor was named as the Twins 13th manager in November 2014. Molitor has five career ejections as a player and three ejections as a coach (all in 2001) on his resume. Molitor earned his first ejection as a manager at Target Field on June 10, 2015 when he came out to back up Torii Hunter who was arguing a called strike three in a game against the Kansas City Royals. Torii Hunter was also ejected.

Update July 26, 2015 – Paul Molitor earned his second managerial career ejection at Target Field yesterday when he was ejected by umpire Jeff Nelson for arguing an Aaron Hicks checked swing that was called strike three.

Update August 23, 2015 – Paul Molitor was ejected for the third time in his managerial career, this time in Camden Yards in a Twins win against the Orioles. Molitor loss his cool when Miguel Sano was called out on a check swing. Funny thing was that Molitor was sent packing twice because the home plate umpire ejected him when Molly came out to argue and the home plate umpire was not aware that the first base umpire had already ejected him.

Update May 4, 2016 – Paul Molitor ejected by Scott Barry for arguing balls and strikes at Minute Maid Park in a 16-4 loss to the Astros.

Update April 20, 2017 – Paul Molitor ejected by Alan Porter in the ninth inning for arguing balls and strikes at Target Field in a 6-2 loss to the Indians.

 

Make sure you stop by my new Twins Managers Ejections page.

This and That

As I sit here looking out the window over-looking the back yard I see nothing but white. We have received about 9″ of snow in the last day or so and it is still snowing. Hard to fathom that the Twins will be playing baseball at Target Field which is just about 10 miles away in less than a month.

Time go by so quickly, you don’t realize how quickly until you get up in age and look back on things. When you are young, a week can seem like an eternity, when you get longer in the tooth you understand how quickly time passes. It has already been six years since Kirby Puckett suffered that massive strike on March 5, 2006 and passed away a day later. Boy, it doesn’t seem like it can be seven years that Kirby has been gone.

The minor leaguers have reported and will soon start to play games in Ft. Myers so the Twins will be in position to start cutting players and sending them to the back fields at the Hammond complex. Disappointment? Yes, but most of these guys can continue to play and hone their skills for a shot at the big money in the big leagues. On the other hand it also presents opportunities for some up-and-comers to get the call to come over to the big league side and strut their stuff for a game or two here and there, a rare opportunity to show the Twins management that they belong with the big boys. On the down side there are some players in the minor league complex today that will be cut before camp ends and their baseball careers may be over, a lifetime of dreams will come to and end for some and the reality of getting a real job will be staring them in the face. But that is the reality of baseball and life. As sure as the sun rises in the East and sets in the West, these things take place year after year in spring training camps all over Florida and Arizona.

Jim Thome
Jim Thome

After two seasons they would like to forget, the Twins have lots to prove and many decisions to make. I think it is too early to waste a lot of time speculating on who is winning what position battles as yet but there are a number of good battles going on. What the player does on the field doesn’t even take into account how “service time” plays into things and how long the Twins have a player under their control. The Twins aren’t even a .500 team this year so do the Twins bring say an Aaron Hicks north in to start the season or do they wait for a month or two and control him a year longer? There are plusses and minuses on both sides but my opinion is that if the Twins are really serious about putting the best team on the field now and for the future they will not allow this to come in to play. If Hicks earns the job with his play and beats out everyone the Twins throw out there, give him the job. If you lose a year of control over Hicks so be it. You play the game of baseball to win, not to see how you can avoid arbitration and or free agency with your players. When the season ends the only valid measure of how any baseball team did is your wins and losses and if you won your final game. The bottom line is winning and you win with your best players. If you are more worried about the money then winning then you are in the wrong business. I am not advocating spending money foolishly, but how can you say that letting a young guy play if he earns it spending money foolishly. To me spending money foolishly is signing someone like Jim Thome to pinch hit for a team that will be lucky to win 75 games. If this is really what Gardy wants then I say fire Gardy because he is not thinking straight and I really like Grady as the Twins manager, but bringing Thome back would be the final straw. I know that Thome is a great guy, a future hall of famer and all that but it comes down to this, how many games will he add to the Twins win column? Everything has  an opportunity cost, I think Thome’s opportunity cost is too high. It is not about the money, it is about the player that deserves to be on the roster more than Thome does at this stage of his career.

Anthony Swarzak
Anthony Swarzak

A player that I think does not deserve a roster spot on the Twins 25 man roster is long man Anthony Swarzak. I know you need a long man but Swarzak has done a less than stellar job in that role. Let’s look at what Swarzak has done in his 3 years with the Twins. He record is 10-20 with 5.03 ERA  with a 1.44 WHIP. Opponents hit .287 off him (righties hit .302 and lefties hit .272) and he has a 1.96 ratio for SO/BB. I am not a huge fan of Cole DeVries as a starter but I would like to see him in the long man role for the Twins. In his one season in Minnesota, DeVries went 5-5 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Opponents only hit him at a .252 clip and his SO/BB ratio was 3.22. If DeVries is not in the starting rotation, he deserves to be the long man more than Swarzak does.

Have you been watching the Twins attendance numbers at their spring training games? I have and if I were the Twins I would be very concerned. The Twins have played 6 exhibition games at Hammond Stadium and they are averaging 5,553 per game and their high is 6,591 with their seating capacity at about 8,000. In 2012 their average attendance in Ft. Myers was 7,344 so the drop from last year is about 24.39%. If you compare attendance drops in spring training games to regular season attendance drop in attendance in 2012 you could expect the Twins attendance to drop 25%-30% this season in Target Field meaning that the club will be lucky to have 2 million fans pass through the Target Field turnstiles. That is assuming the Twins don’t play worse than or better than is expected by the fan base. Hopefully the Twins can get off to a good start both on the field and with their attendance but with the number of home games the Twins have in April and the weather being what it is so far, there is reason for concern.

Twins forgotten man?

 

Eduardo Escobar
Eduardo Escobar

The Twins plan for an infield consisting of Justin Morneau, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon and Trevor Plouffe may not yet be set in concrete but the forms are in place and the Cemstone truck is coming up the street. Jamey Carroll has a tight grip on one of the utility spots and now Gardy is making noise that he wants more power on his bench then he had last year and that would not bode well for Drew Butera as a third catcher. But I have my doubts that Gardy will make his wish a reality because he is just too concerned about getting a catcher hurt and losing his DH for the rest of the game. I just don’t understand his hang-up about that, if he lost his DH for the rest of a particular game who cares, it is just one game, big deal.

Most of the media and blog buzz is about the Twins starting pitching or who will play centerfield and almost everyone on the 40 man roster seems to have been put through the shredder, analyzed and re-analyzed except for one guy, nobody ever talks about Eduardo Escobar. I think Escobar is an interesting player and I have not seen him play very much but he can play 2B, short, and 3B and I keep seeing reports that he can also play the outfield but all I have found is that he played the outfield once in his seven minor league seasons and once with the White Sox last season before being traded to Minnesota as part of the Francisco Liriano trade. Escobar is still only 24 but he has over 600 minor league games and 59 big league games on his resume. Hitting is not Escobar’s strength as his career average in the minors is .267, it is his glove and his flexibility that will make him a valuable tool in Gardy’s arsenal. Escobar can steal some bases, can hit it out of the park a couple of times a year and the man is a switch-hitter. Everything I heard and saw after the trade to Minnesota last year indicated that he was a popular presence in the White Sox clubhouse and all the players hated to see him go. I am not saying that Escobar should be a starter, I am just saying that we should not over look him, I think he can fit a role on this team. I have always liked the under-dog and Eduardo Escobar seems to fit that role for me. Getting a couple of hits in his first spring game today was nice to see.

It has been a long winter and it was good to be able to listen to a Twins baseball game again today. I will say however; that it didn’t take long for Dan Gladden to get on my nerves. the man is there to broadcast a baseball game and not to tell me about his personal life and where he likes to stop and have a cold drink and feed his face. Describe the baseball action Gladden and try to act like a professional announcer you are paid to be.

How important are 30 or more starts in a season from each starting pitcher?

The Twins and Terry Ryan have put in a lot of time this off-season to try to round up some pitchers that they can put in the starting rotation so that manager Gardenhire can hopefully call on each of them to start 30-35 games each. That will be no easy task as last season the team leader in pitching starts was Scott Diamond with 27 and he didn’t even join the starting rotation until May 8th.

If you look back through franchise history you will find that the great Hall of Fame pitcher Walter (The Big Train) Johnson pitched for the Wasinhton Senators for 21 seasons from 1907-1927 and he started 666 games, that is an average of 31.71 starts each year for 21 years. He set the the franchise games started in a season record with 42 in 1910. Twins lefty Jim Kaat equalled that mark of 42 starts in the Twins 1965 AL Championship season and followed that up with 41 starts in 1966 making him the only pitcher in franchise history to have back-to-back 40+ starts seasons.

I thought it would be interesting to review the Gardenhire era from 2002 through 2012 to see how many pitchers he has had that have started 30 or more games in a season for the Twins.

2002 – Rick Reed and Kyle Lohse

2003 – Brad Radke, Kyle Lohse, Kenny Rogers, Joe Mays (and Rick Reed chipped in 27 starts)

2004 – Johan Santana, Carlos Silva, Brad Radke, and Kyle Lohse

2005 – Johan Santana and Brad Radke

2006 – Johan Santana and Carlos Silva

2007 – Johan Santana, Carlos Silva, and Boof Bonser

2008 – Nick Blackburn

2009 – Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker

2010 – Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano

2011 – Carl Pavano

2012 – None, Scott Diamond led the pack with 27

In this 11 year time frame the Twins have had 12 different pitchers provide 30 or more starts in a single season and only three of them were actually drafted by the Twins, the rest were acquired in another manner. Radke was an 8th round pick in 1991, Blackburn was a 29th round pick in 2001, and Scott Baker was a 2nd round pick in 2003.

Chart showing numbers of pitchers with 30 or more starts

(Central Division champs marked with an *)
YEAR Twins Tigers Indians WSox Royals Totals
2002 2* 2 1 3 2 10
2003 4* 2 1 4 1 12
2004 4* 4 3 2 1 14
2005 2 3 5 4* 2 16
2006 2* 4 3 5 0 14
2007 3 2 3* 4 1 13
2008 1 2 1 4* 3 11
2009 2* 3 0 3 1 9
2010 2* 2 1 3 2 10
2011 1 4* 2 2 2 11
2012 0 3* 2 1 2 8
Totals 23 31 22 35 17 128
LHP Jim Kaat
LHP Jim Kaat
Pitcher # of starts Years Pitched Avg. # of starts per season
1. Jim Kaat 422 1961-1973 32.46
2. Brad Radke 377 1995-2006 31.42
3. Bert Blyleven 345 1970-1976 & 1985-1988 31.36
4. Frank Viola 259 1982-1989 32.38
5. Jim Perry 249 1963-1972 24.90
6. Dave Goltz 215 1972-1979 26.88
7. Kevin Tapani 180 1989-1995 25.71
8. Camilo Pascual 179 1961-1966 29.83
9. Johan Santana 175 2000-2007 21.88
10. Eric Milton 165 1998-2003 27.50
11. Scot Baker 159 2005-2011 22.71
12. Scott Erickson 153 1990-1995 25.50
13. Kyle Lohse 152 2001-2006 25.33
14. Dave Boswell 150 1964-1970 21.43

Happy New Year! Really?

2013-new-yearHappy New Year! The temperature here in Minneapolis got down to a minus 8 degrees early this morning but as the calendar turns to a new month and a new year I know that spring training is not that far away. I wish I could be more optimistic about the upcoming Minnesota Twins 2013 season but I find it very hard to do so with the moves or the lack of moves the club has made so far.

The starting pitching is not much to crow about even after the Twins have traded for starters Vance Worley and signed  free agent starters Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, and Rich Harden. I don’t think Harden will start more than a handful of games and will pitch primarily out of the bullpen when he happens to be healthy, which his history indicates will be rare. I have very little faith in Pelfrey being much of an improvement over what Nick Blackburn has shown us the last few years plus I am not sure he will even be ready when the season opens. I actually like Correia in the back-end of the rotation and he won’t always be pretty to watch but he has shown that he can win some games having won 10 or more games each of the last 4 years pitching for the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates. Worley is an unknown to me but he could turn into the best pitcher on the staff if he is healthy. I was disappointed to hear that Scott Diamond has under gone clean-up elbow surgery and I was really frustrated that the Twins did not resign Scott Baker.

I expect Justin Morneau who is still only 31 to have a very good year, not a MVP type season but back to the numbers that he is capable of putting up and showing a lot of Twins fans that he belongs in Minnesota. The rest of the infield is shaky at best, I am hoping that Brian Dozier can take over and play second base day in and day out. At third base Trevor Plouffe is not the answer either as he has shown he can neither field the position nor can he hit on a consistent basis although he does have some pop in his bat. Todate Plouffe has a career minor league batting average of .257 and with the Twins he is hitting .231 so there is not too much hope there. At shortstop I know that Pedro Florimon has not shown much with his bat but he has a good glove and I think the Twins can live with his stick if they are going to play Plouffe and Dozier in the same infield. The outfield is interesting with no center fielder and I would be surprised if Joe Benson himself coming off a very forgettable 2012 season is not the Twins center fielder when the season opens. Willingham is dismal in left field but the Twins need his power and will be forced to keep him in the line-up. I sure wish they could have traded Willingham coming off his career year but that did not happen. Chris Parmelee will take over right and he is young with a good bat and I think he can become at least an average right fielder. Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are hopefully going to be pounding on the outfield door as the season moves along to keep everyone on their toes and that gives me some hope. Doumit is perfect for the DH role although I know that makes Gardy nervous when he has his back-up catcher at DH but realistically, how often will that really be an issue? The Twins might carry a third catcher anyway. You have Joe Mauer catching and your main utility guys are Jamey Carroll, Darin Mastroianni and probably Eduardo Escobar. I am big on experience and when you look at the Twins you don’t see a lot here, only Mauer catching, Morneau at 1B, Willingham in left and Doumit at DH and that usually makes for bad baseball.

I guess that the core of the 2013 Twins is in place and spring training will have a few battles for the open positions but I just find it hard to get really enthused about this bunch of players. To me it seems like the Twins are afraid to pick a side, either go young or get some better experienced players and try to field a competitive team. I feel bad that Ron Gardenhire finds himself in the position he does but life is not always fair and this team could easily end Gardy’s reign as a Twins manager and I think that will be a bad thing for both the team and the fans. There has been speculation that Paul Molitor is waiting in the wings to take over as the Twins new skipper but I for one hope that does not happen. Molitor has no managerial experience and does not seem to be the least bit interested in earning a manager’s job by working his way up the minor league chain but instead appears to send a message that his hall of fame playing career qualifies him to be the Twins next manager. I don’t see Molitor as a great communicator or even a great teacher for that matter. What has Molitor done over the years to qualify for the job? Nothing and I think hiring Molitor to manage the Twins would set this franchise back for years to come.

In spite of their new ballpark and the 2014 All-Star game on the horizon the Twins are dropping like a rock in the eyes of many Minnesota fans with the basketball Timbewolves moving up, the Vikings making the playoffs, and maybe even the NHL players and owners will agree to a new deal soon and the Wild will once again be relevant. There are only so many entertainment dollars to go around and if the Minnesota Twins don’t put a decent product on the field they will be left in the dust. Todays Twins fans are not the Twins fans of the past and will not tolerate the bad play of past Twins teams, they will simply find another place to spend their money and it will not be fun to watch the Twins play to a meager fan base with a lot of empty seats in Target Field. Twins management seems to have forgotten the old business axiom that it is easier to keep your existing customers than it is to get new customers.

Even their August 2012 announced move to the Pohlad owned FM station KTWN 96.3 station in 2013 seems like a slap in the face to Twins fans. Many baseball fans listen to Twins games on the radio and now even that access may be harder to find. In July of 2012 KTWN did not even make the Twins Cities top 20 radio stations with a measly 1.4%  share of the listening public. Both of the previous stations that carried the Twins games since the team moved to Minnesota back in 1961 WCCO from 1961-2007 and KSTP from 2007-2012 had an AM transmitter power rating of 50,ooo watts and while the Twins new home at KTWN is an FM signal, its transmitter power is a paltry 19,000 watts. The WCCO signal was rated to extend about 90 miles, the KSTP signal was rated for 60 miles during the day and 30 miles at night and the Twins new home at KTWN is rated for 20 miles.

KTWN FM signal coverageI know all this sounds depressing but that is the sad and sorry state of the Twins as they prepare for the 2013 season. The team has done nothing that I can see to get the fan base excited about the up-coming baseball season and that disappoints me. I will follow the Twins in 2013 but sadly, many former Twins fans will not. Hard as I try, I don’t see the Twins finishing anywhere except in the AL Central division basement once again this coming season.

Twins active but lots of work remains to be done

It has been awhile since my last post but web site hosting issues have caused me a lot of extra work and taken me away from more fun activities like keeping up with the MLB Winter meetings and the changing Twins roster.

With the recent trades of former first round pick (2002) outfielder Denard Span to the Washington Nationals for 2011 Nats first round pick RHP Alex Meyer and just a few days later sending another former Twins first round pick (2007) outfielder Ben Revere to the Phillies for RHP’s Vance Worley and Trevor May the Twins and GM Terry Ryan have held true to their word that changes were coming and that they were going to snag as many pitchers as they could. These trades should also clear up any confusion that some Twins fans may still have had that the Twins were going to be “reload” and try to become a playoff team once again after suffering through two dismal seasons. The Twins are in a full-scale rebuilding mode but not the kind of rebuilding mode that we may have seen from the Twins in the past. In the past they would get rid of all their high salaried players and start from scratch but that is a much harder sell now days with the Twins just having moved into their new digs at Target Field in 2010. The Twins aren’t stupid, they know they can’t afford to totally alienate their fan base that they have built up with a with a new ballpark and a nice run since 2002 but they also know that they let their starting pitching fall into disrepair the last few years and in the process have lost 90+ games two years in a row. The team grew stale, changes were few and far between on the player, coaching and management sides and their “smoke and mirrors” approach to their pitching staff caught up with the team so quickly it seemed to catch the entire Twins organization off guard.

The Twins are not a huge market team but they can not plead poverty as they have in the past. The team has a decent fan base, a relatively new ballpark and ownership that has money to spend but I am not sure that they are willing to spend it. The Twins like to brag that they are one of the top organizations in baseball but when it comes to taking out their wallet to bring in some high-priced talent the team claims it is not all about the money. I understand if they can’t put Zack Greinke in a Twins uniform but I can’t get a handle on why you can’t get Joe Blanton for example if the Angels can get him for 2 years for $15 million. This team has just two starting pitchers going into 2013 and I surely don’t grasp why the team would supposedly make an offer to Francisco Liriano after his history with the team between 2005-2012. I think Terry Ryan is a very good GM but I sure don’t know what his logic is for this move. At least throw us a bone Mr. Pohlad, give us some new blood and something to at least give us some hope instead of having us pay to watch that same old crap. I understand loyalty but you can only keep hitting your head against the same old wall for so long before someone shows up to haul you away in a white coat. Show us some loyalty and a reason why we should pay big league prices to watch the Twins in 2013.

This Twins team has more holes than my fishing net but I still love baseball and every year teams come for nowhere to play winning baseball and I can only hope that the Twins will do so sooner than later. There are still serviceable pitchers out there on the FA market and I hope that Jim Pohlad lets Dave St. Peter and Terry Ryan know that his checkbook is there and he is willing to carack it open long enough to sign at least one if not two more starting pitchers. It all starts at the top. The recent splash the Twins have made in the trade market should be just the beginning of what the Twins need to do to become competitive again and not the final chapter.

Josh Hamilton is still a free agent and if Texas doesn’t resign him they could use a power hitting outfielder and if I were the Twins I would be happy to send Josh Willingham to Texas for a shortstop like Jurickson Barthelomeus Profar that could fill that shortstop hole at Target Field for many years to come. The Twins recently announced that they had signed 35-year-old pitcher Jason Lane who played the outfield for the Astros and Padres from 2002-2007 and turned to pitching in 2009. The team also signed 1B/C Jeff Clement who has played in the big leagues with the Mariner and the Pirates for parts of 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2012 and hit .218 in 385 at bats. Why in %#@* do you spend the money on players like this? You don’t win with quantity, you win with quality, I am not sure the Twins look at it that way.

In the recent major league portion of the Rule 5 draft the Twins selected 23 year-old RHP Ryan Pressly from the Boston Red Sox. After starting since 2008 Pressly was turned into a reliever late in 2012 and pitched well in that role in the AFL over the last month or so.

It is still early in December and the 2013 season is several months away but the Twins brain trust needs to keep their nose to the grindstone if this team is going to break their two-year death grip on last place. If I was Ron Gardenhire, the way things looks right now, I would be signing on to the PC and updating my resume.

How Twins have fared against other AL opponents

The Washington Senators played in Washington D.C. from 1901 through 1960. During those 60 years the team played 9,188 games and had 4,223 wins, 4,864 losses and 101 ties to show for their efforts. Excluding the tie games the Senators had a .460 winning percentage.

Since the Minnesota Twins took the field for the first time as a major league team back on April 11, 1961 against the New York Yankees the Minnesota Twins have played 8,293 games and have 4,138 wins, 4,147 losses and 8 ties for a .499 winning percentage. Their home record stands at 2,241-1,913 for a .539 win percentage and on the road they have 1,897 wins and 2,234 losses for a .459 winning percentage.

I have put together a chart that shows how the Twins have fared against their American League brethren from 1961-2012 under Gardy, under TK, and the other 10 Twins managers combined that preceded TK and Gardy from 1961-1986, I know that TK managed briefly in 1986 but I have not included those few games in TK’s stats.

It comes as no surprise that the Kansas City Royals have been Twins patsies for a long time or that the New York Yankees have caused the Twins to get into a fetal position in the corner and cry. But a .276 winning percentage against the Bronx Bombers since Gardy took over as the Twins skipper is just plain atrocious, how can one team be so dominant?  That number truly amazes me. You have to understand, I like Gardy as a manager but a .276 winning percentage means that if the Twins played the Yankees under Gardy in every game of a 162 game schedule, the Twins would end up with a 45-117 record under Gardy’s leadership. There is an old baseball axiom that states that if you play 162 games, odds are that you will win at least 60 games and lose at least 60 games, at that rate even if you lost all of the remaining 42 games you would sill have a .370 winning percentage. YIKES!

The only Central division team to hold a winning record over the Twins is the Cleveland Indians. The Twins have beat 8 teams more often than they have lost and 6 teams hold a winning percentage over Minnesota.

Team Wins Losses Win % Pre 1987 Under TK Under Gardy
Royals 361 315 .534 .500 .492 .621
Senators/Rangers 360 321 .529 .561 .444 .550
Tigers 391 349 .528 .500 .569 .542
White Sox 420 383 .523 .545 .481 .517
Oak/KC A’s 358 335 .517 .523 .500 .520
Tampa 60 56 .517 n/a .447 .551
Brewers/Pilots 226 215 .512 .528 .472 .545
Red Sox 293 290 .503 .503 .512 .478
Indians 361 377 .489 .478 .463 .532
Mariners 196 211 .482 .508 .449 .505
Angels 326 353 .480 .487 .497 .421
Orioles 270 317 .460 .443 .472 .513
Blue Jays 153 197 .437 .518 .395 .410
Yankees 247 338 .422 .436 .463 .276