Tag: Nationals

Is Bryce Harper the biggest Scott Boras flimflam ever?

Scott Boras and Bryce Harper – Credit Getty Images

 

I know this won’t be popular but I will say it anyway, Bryce Harper is not worth $350 to $400 million and any team that signs him for that amount will pay dearly and not only from a financial perspective.

I grant you that Harper is just 26 years old and baseball wisdom says that his best years are ahead of him. However; you would be a fool to ignore history, Harper has played for Washington for seven seasons and he has averaged 132 games a year, (81% of the schedule) he has exceeded 150 games twice. His 2015 MVP season was his one great season and Harper has hit 30+ home runs just twice, has 100 RBI once and he has a .279 career average. If you look at 2015 as an outlier season in which his WAR was 10.0, his other six seasons average out to a WAR of 2.9. 

Harper is an above average player but he has not shown that he is the super-star that the experts predicted so why pay him like he is a player like no one before him? Harper’s work ethic has also been questioned in the past. Harper is player that plays for Harper and the team is secondary, the Washington Nationals will be a better team without him and they won’t be on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars to boot. A win-win situation for the Nationals and their fans.

Scott Boras will find a way to make Bryce Harper a richer man, he always does, because there is a sucker born every minute, but this might be the best hustle ever by today’s version of P.T. Barnum.

Twins & Red Sox to have company in Fort Myers?

A story in the Fort Myers News-Press states that the Washington Nationals have extended negotiations with Lee County to relocate their spring training home from Viera to City of Palms Park in Fort Myers. I think it would be fun to see another big league team train in Fort Myers and you have to think the Minnesota Twins would also like to have another team training in the area if for no other reason then just having another team to play with little to no travel time. However, the implications of such a move of another big league team from the Florida east coast to the gulf coast might not be good for the Florida Grapefruit League circuit in general. If the Nats were to move their spring training site, the only team left on the east coast would be the Marlins, Mets, and the Cardinals. You can read the story here.

So why do Twins pick up Erik Komatsu

Erik Komatsu

Put me down under the confused column. Why would the Twins pick up Erik Komatsu? I have no problem sending Clete Thomas packing as he had 28 at bats in a Twins uniform and he hit .143 and he struck out 16 times, enough said. But why pick up Komatsu who is a Cardinals Rule 5 pick-up in December of 2011? Komatsu grew up in California and graduated from Adolfo Camarillo High School where he was a teammate of Delmon Young. Komatsu was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 8th round in 2008, missed most of 2009 with a concussion and hamstring issues and was traded to the Washington Nationals in July 2011. Komatsu has 348 minor league games under his belt and he hit .302 but he has never played above AA ball. I know he can play all three outfield positions and he has stolen 57 bases in the minors but he also got caught 24 times. It’s not like Komatsu is a corner outfielder with power potential. If the Twins don’t keep Komatsu on the roster they need to offer him back to the Nats. Why would the Twins want a player like this? If you want to replace Thomas why not pick up one of your own minor league players? What kind of message does this send to your own minor leaguers? Do the Twins think so little of their own minor league players that they feel they need to pick up players like Clete Thomas and Erik Komatsu? Put yourself in Ben Revere’s or Rene Tosoni’s shoes, what are they thinking? If the Cardinals thought that Komatsu had potential why didn’t they strike a deal with Washington and keep him? The only reason he made the Cardinals team this year anyway was due to all the injuries the Cardinals outfielders suffered. I would like to know why a player from another organization that hasn’t played AAA ball can play in Minnesota but when it comes to their own players they would prefer they get AAA experience first. Don’t tell me about Parmelee, I know he has no AAA experience but the Twins are hardly playing Parmelee this season anyway. I know this team is playing poorly and need some changes but a fourth/fifth outfielder is hardly the answer here unless………. the Twins know they are going to move some players soon and go into full rebuilding mode sooner than later. If that is the case, then the Twins can keep Komatsu on the roster all season and this move might make some sense. I just don’t know if Terry Ryan and the Twins brain trust knows where they are going, they seem to wander aimlessly so far this season grasping at straws.

First official team workout of 2012

I had to check out the Twins first official workout on Friday. Naturally the number of fans watching Twins drills has increased substanially over what has been there previously. But you know what? The main question you hear as you walk from field to field is “have you been over to the new Red Sox complex yet”? Ft. Myers is Red Sox territory for sure and the Minnesota Twins are playing second fiddle here. I have only seen the complex as I have driven by it but everyone that has seen it has said it is pretty nice and makes the Twins complex look bush league. The biggest complaint I have heard so far about the complex is that the ballpark tours that the Red Sox put on are sold out every day. If you listen to the “locals” here, it is a done deal that the Washington Nationals will be moving to Ft. Myers in the next year or two and will be using the old Boston Red Sox complex as their new spring training site after the city/county make some improvements.

Gardy gave his first day speech to several player groups and I think Gardy has to feel a bit of pressure this spring to get the team back on the right track. I don’t think that means he has to win a division title, it just means he needs to regain control of the team that seemed to not put forth a major league effort last year. Outside of seeing Justin Morneau take the field for the first time I do not have much to report. I saw Justin take part in several infield drills but I did not get to see him take BP. He looked OK but we will just have to wait and see if Justin can particiapte in all the drills over the next week or two. I still do not think Morneau is his same old self.

Ryan Doumit

One player that kind of stood out in my eyes today was free agent signee catcher/outfielder Ryan Doumit. Doumit was wearing his catchers gear today and was hustling all morning from field to field. Some players seem to drag themselves from drill to drill while others jog, Doumit is one of those that lets no grass grow under his feet. With this many players in camp it is hard to see everyone since there are so many groups of players particiapting in various drills but one player I missed seeing today was Danny Valencia. Joe Mauer was working hard again today, good to see. I also checked out the minor league fields and the small core of players that has been there for several weeks is growing by the day. I took a number of pictures that you can see by going to my 2012 Spring Training pictures in the right hand column of this page.

How well did Twins rookies perform in 2011

The Twins finished the 2011 season with a 63-99 mark and lots of folks including the Twins management blamed the clubs poor finish or at least a big part of it on injuries and that is difficult to argue as the team used the DL list 27 times. The Twins often brought up rookies to fill these openings. How did these rookies perform?

This past season the Twins led all of baseball in games played by rookies with 493, followed by the Mets with 442 and the Mariners with 403. On the other end of the spectrum the rookies only played in 57 Brewers and 73 Rangers games and you know where these teams finished. If you look at rookie plate appearances, the Twins postion playing rookies had 1,805, way ahead of the team closest to them, the Mariners who sent 1,484 rookie batters to home plate. These Twins position rookies ranked in the middle of the pack in base on balls percentage at 6.9%, ranked seventh best in strikeout percentage at 18.2%, were in the middle of the pack with a .245 batting average, and if you look at WAR, the Twins number was 1.0 with the Nationals the highest at 5.8 and the Rockies the lowest at -1.6 .

Looking at the Twins rookie pitchers as compared to all of baseball , the team used fewer rookies there than most teams did this past season. Twins rookie pitchers appeared in 124 games putting them 11 fewest and Twins rookies threw 169.2 innings, only the rookie pitchers for the Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Giants and Red Sox threw fewer innings. These Twins rookies finished with a 5-14 record with a BB/9 of 4.03 and 5.36 K/9, hardly something to shout about. On the other end of things, rookies threw 545.1 innings for the Royals, 527.1 for the Astros, 489 for the Mariners, and 426 for the Braves. These same Twins rookie pitchers posted an ERA of 5.15 trailing only the Giants at 6.40 and the 6.10 Red Sox. The Twins rookie pitchers did not pitch a lot but when they did pitch, they pitched poorly.

I took a look at the Twins rookies as compared to the rest of the American League rookies over the last 10 years and where the team finished and here is what I found.

Year Rookie plate appearances AL rank Rookie innings pitched AL rank Division finish
2011 1,805 1 169.2 13 5th
2010 631 7 88 12 1st
2009 368 11 306.1 8 1st
2008 1,512 2 491.2 2 2nd
2007 520 8 222.1 9 3rd
2006 305 10 376.1 7 1st
2005 1,238 2 246 6 3rd
2004 1,519 1 95.1 12 1st
2003 426 9 130.1 10 1st
2002 962 4 201 9 1st
AVG 928.6 5.5 232.7 8.8 1.9

I am not sure you can reach any definitive conclusions from these numbers like rookies = trouble but they are still fun to look at. For example, the Twins finished last in 2011 when their rookie position players had more plate appearances than anyone but you compare that with 2004 when their rookie position players again led the league in PA’s but the team finished first.

But one thing that you can take away from this is that Gardy and pitching coach Rick Anderson are not big fans of young rookie pitchers based on the fact that the Twins rookie pitchers have been consisently in the bottom half of the division in innings pitched each year averaging just 232.7 innings and a ranking 9th of 14 teams. Twins rookie pitchers have only finished in the upper half of league innings pitched 3 three times in 10 seasons.

Twins to sign pitcher Jason Marquis?

According to a report by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, the Twins are nearing a deal with 33-year-old right-handed starting pitcher Jason Marquis. Marquis had signed a two-year $15 million deal  with the Washington Nationals after declaring free agency after the 2009 season. In mid April of 2010 Marquis suffered a right elbow injury and missed 99 games before returning in August and finishing the 2010 season with a 2-9 record and a 6.60 ERA. Marquis started the season with the Washington Nationals in 2011 and was 8-5 with a 3.95 ERA before being traded at the trade deadline at the end of July to the Arizona D-Backs where he pitched in just 3 games and gave up 16 runs in 11+ innings before suffering a broken fibula in early August and ending his season.

Jason Marquis

Marquis was an Atlanta Braves 1st round pick in 1996 and made he big league debut with the Braves on June 6, 2000. Marquis pitched for the Braves between 2000-2003 before being involved in a big trade when the Braves sent Marquis, Adam Wainwright, and Ray King to the St. Louis Cardinals for JD Drew and Eli Marrero. Marquis pitched for the Cardinals from 2004-2006, the Cubs from 2007-2008 and the Colorado Rockies in 2009. Between 2004 and 2009 Marquis averaged 196 innings and 13 wins. Jason Marquis was an All-Star in 2009 and ranked second in the league in double-play grounders induced.

Jason Marquis is one of those “inning eaters” the Twins are apparently looking for and he fits the Twins mold of pitch to contact because in his 12 seasons in the majors he has given up 1,758 hits and 645 walks in 1,675+ innings while striking out 974. I am not sure what Terry Ryan and the Twins see in this guy and I sure hope that they don’t pay him very much but you have to figure he will get at least $5 million. Maybe Marquis will just be a placeholder in the rotation until they reach a point in the season when they can bring up a youngster and move Marquis along once again and hopefully get something in return. Then again, this is not a done deal, just a report of a possible deal so I can still hope it falls apart.

UPDATE December 22 – The Twins have announced that they have reached a one year $3 million deal with Jason Marquis.

Twins reportedly ready to sign Josh Willingham

ESPN has reported that the Twins are about to sign 32-year-old free agent outfielder Josh Willingham. Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune is reporting the deal is for 3 years and $21 million. Willingham pocketed $6 million this past season in Oakland. The right-handed hitting Willingham has been in the majors for 8 seasons playing for the Marlins from 2004 – 2008, the Nationals in 2009 -2010 and the Oakland A’s this past season. Willingham hit a career high of 29 home runs for the A’s and knocked in 98 but also hit a career low .246 last season with 150 strikeouts but he did post a .361 OBP.

If this report of Willingham agreeing to a deal with the Twins is accurate, it would appear that the Twins are not going to meet Michael Cuddyer’s reported request for $30 million for 3 years as recent reports have the Twins offering Cuddyer $24 or $25 million. There were reports all day today that Willingham wanted to get a deal done in the next 24-48 hours and that kind of put he pressure on the Twins to do something as they did not want to find themselves in a position of getting neither Cuddyer nor Willingham.

Willingham is not great defensively so the logical position for him is left field but Willingham did play 35 games in right for the Nationals back in 2009. If Willingham is indeed in left, it appears to me the Twins will play Span in center and probably Doumit in right with Revere filling in center and left as needed. The Twins could go with Revere in center and Span in right but I just don’t see that happening too often. Plouffe is probably the fifth outfielder playing left and right field as needed.

Michael Cuddyer

I am thinking that Cuddyer may have over played his hand if he wanted to come back to Minnesota and was hoping that the Twins would raise their offer. The Twins called his bluff and now Cuddyer may have to settle for what he can get from the Rockies but there are now reports that the Marlins might be interested too. The Twins picked up a little more power with Willingham but they lose a good player with more position flexibility. It all goes back to losing 99 games, changes need to be made. The Twins also save $3-5 million over 3 years by going with Willingham versus Cuddyer. In the mean time, former Twins outfielder and DH Jason Kubel sits out there waiting for his turn to come up.

UPDATE December 14 – The Minnesota Twins have finally made the Josh Willingham deal official — a three-year, $21 million contract is a done deal.

Welcome back Mr. Capps

Although the Twins have not officially announced the deal, the team apparently has agreed to sign free agent Matt Capps (pending a physical) to a one year $4.75 $4.5 million deal with an option for 2013 for $6 million with a $250,000 buyout. The Twins acquired Capps from the Washington Nationals in return for highly rated prospect catcher Wilson Ramos at the trade deadline in 2010 to solidify the closer role when Joe Nathan was out for the season with TJ surgery. Capps appeared in 27 games for the Twins in 2010 and posted a 2-0 record with 16 saves to go with his ERA of 2.00 and a 1.18 WHIP. Capps then started the 2011 season in the set-up role but when Joe Nathan struggled early on, Capps took over the closer role in mid April and had 15 saves before struggling in mid-July and giving the closer role back to Nathan. Capps finished the 2011 season with a 4.25 ERA and a 4-7 record with 15 saves. After the season ended both the Twins and Capps admitted that Capps was pitching with a sore forearm for a good part of the year. When Joe Nathan signed with Texas a week or so ago for 2 years for $14.5 million, the Twins needed a new closer.

A lot of people are going to hate this deal but I like it and I will tell you why. Matt Capps is only 28 and a proven closer who in the five seasons that he has been a closer has accumulated 123 career saves, that is 25 saves a season pitching for teams like the Pirates, Nationals and the Twins the last 1.5 years. If you take away his 5.80 ERA in 2009, Capps has posted ERA’s of 2.28 in 2007, 3.02, in 2008, and 2.47 in 2010. To you or me $4.75 million is a fortune but in the baseball closer world that is a good buy and I have no problem with it at all. I am not overly concerned about the $6 million for 2013 because it has a $250,000 buyout attached. The problem here is that most fans can’t get over the fact that the Twins gave up Wilson Ramos to get Capps but that is life and Twins fans and bloggers just need to move on.

With the Twins coming off a 99 loss season and questions about the health of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and others, the Twins and Terry Ryan were smart to get an experienced closer for so little money. Plus, they know what they have in Capps and the man is a straight shooter, someone who is not afraid to stand up and accept responsibility for his actions. I was as frustrated with Capps as the next fan when he pitched poorly in 2011 but after finding out about the injury helps me better understand that situation. In addition, I give bonus points to any Twins player that WANTS to play given what many Twins players showed in 2011.

As for the lost supplemental draft choice? So what, draft choices are just that and how many draft picks realistically make the big league team? If you are lucky, 2-3 picks out of each years draft make it. Let’s also say for the moment that the Twins don’t sign Cuddyer and Kubel, how many supplemental picks is too many? How many supplemental picks can the Twins afford to sign? There is only so much money for draft picks each season. I always say, “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”.

So let’s check “closer” off the Twins needs list and move on to more pressing issues.

UPDATE December 7 – The Twins announced today that Capps has passed his physical and the deal is official.

Nathan‘s option declined

 

Joe Nathan

October 25, 2011 – The Twins announced this afternoon that they have declined closer Joe Nathan’s $12.5 million club option for 2012 and instead will instead exercise a $2 million buyout which makes Nathan a free agent. GM Smith has indicated to Nathan, who be 37 on November 22nd and his agent that the Twins would like to resign the 37 year reliever but at a lesser price tag.

Nathan has been with the Minnesota Twins since 2004 and is the Twins all-time saves leader with 260 passing previous leader Rick Aguilera (254 saves) this past season.

It will be interesting to see if the Twins can resign Nathan this off season and if so, how much will it cost. But before I try to resign Joe Nathan, I go back to the Washington Nationals and try to swing a deal for closer Drew Storen and shortstop Ian Desmond and I give up Ben Revere, Kevin Slowey and a minor league prospect. If the Nats don’t want Revere but want Denard Span instead, I still do the deal without the minor league prospect. Nathan has obviously been a great closer but he is coming off a serious injury and he will be 37 years old before next season begins. How much is he worth to a team that lost 99 games in 2011 and has many holes to fill? In my opinion I don’t sign him to more than two years and I offer him $14 million for those two years. If Nathan feels that is not enough, I let him walk and I look for a closer.

How they will finish in 2011

March 31, 2011 – I know the season started today and I am a bit slow with my predictions for this year but here is how I see things playing out. Sorry to say, but I don’t see the Twins winning the AL Central this year, the new champs of the Central will be those “dag nabbit” Mighty Whitey’s. I see the Chicago White Sox as just beating out the Twins by 1 ½ games in a season long battle for supremacy. But things aren’t all bad, as the Twins will be the American league wild card winners for the first time in their history. Here is how I see the Division races ending up.

Finish AL East AL Central AL West
1 Red Sox White Sox Rangers
2 Yankees Twins * A’s
3 Rays Tigers Angels
4 Orioles Royals Mariners
5 Blue Jays Indians  
       
Finish NL East NL Central NL West
1 Braves Reds Rockies
2 Phillies * Cardinals Giants
3 Marlins Brewers Padres
4 Nationals Cubs Dodgers
5 Mets Pirates D-Backs
    Astros  

* – Wild Card Winner

The Twins will make some progress in the playoffs this year but they will only win one series and get beat out in the ALCS by the Boston Red Sox who will face the Atlanta Braves in the World Series. The Boston Red Sox will become the World Champions in 5 games.