According to ELIAS

Twins have two young sluggers

Miguel Sano
Sano
Kepler
Kepler

Miguel Sano, age 23, hit two home runs in the Twins’ 6-3 win at Tampa Bay. Sano’s teammate Max Kepler, also 23, has two multi-homer games in 2016. The last pair of Minnesota players, each under 24, who both hit two home runs in a game within the same season were Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in 2004.

According to ELIAS

Kepler 10 homers in last 33 games

Max Kepler
Max Kepler

Max Kepler‘s home run off Francisco Rodriguez in the ninth inning gave the Twins a 2-1 lead in their eventual 4-1 win over the Tigers yesterday. Kepler has hit 10 home runs over his last 33 games. Kepler is the fourth Twins rookie over the last 40 years to hit 10 or more homers over 1 33-game span. The other Twins rookies to do over the last 40 years are Kent Hrbek and Tom Brunansky, both in 1982, and Miguel Sano in 2015.

Twins open for business

open for businessTwins GM Terry Ryan has stated several times now that the Twins are open for business and will consider any and all offers. But it does take two to tango as they say and Mr. Ryan hasn’t exactly been “Trader Jack”.

If I am Terry Ryan I make it clear to all comers that I am all ears and will listen to all  offers and my team and I are ready to deal if the price is right and the deal helps the Twins. If the trade helps the other team than fine but my only obligation is to make the Twins a better team now. This does not mean however; that this is a fire sale, the Twins are not looking to dump players, they are looking to improve their team, there is a big difference. The team has a group of young core players that they are building around, I am not interested in trading for prospects unless they are major league ready.

Who would I look to trade? I would NOT trade Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios. There are several young pitchers in the farm system that could be had in the right deal but the price would be very steep. Having said that, everyone else on the Twins 25 man roster would be available in the right trade. I would even trade manager Paul Molitor if I could help my team. There are some prospects in the Twins system that they may have to part ways with in order to get better.

You have to remember that the team has the worst record in baseball as we approach the All-Star break so don’t over value the players you have. You have to listen to your brain and look at the stats versus listening to your heart. Loyalty is great but winning is even better.

The Twins are not going to jump from the outhouse to the penthouse in this trading season but they could take some big steps forward with some good moves over the next few weeks. In my book the next three weeks will make or break the Twins season and will decide the future of the Twins organizations make-up for the forseeable future. Terry Ryan and his team have to be open to all offers and suggestions and be willing to travel roads they have never visited before. The road may be unfamiliar and you will hit some bumps but if you do nothing you will surely continue to fail. Personally I have always hated change but sometimes you have to accept it and embrace it, this is one of those times.

Oh yes, there will be those fork in the road decisions that might be difficult but keep in mind that this whole season has been difficult for us Twins fans and if you are not willing to take some chances then you need to step aside and put someone there that is willing to do so.

Good luck Mr. Ryan, lots of Minnesota Twins fans are watching and waiting!

According to ELIAS

Kepler and Sano go deep and combine for 10 RBIs

Max Kepler
Max Kepler

Max Kepler homered twice in a seven-RBI performance, while Miguel Sano contributed a home run and three RBIs to the Twins’ rout of the Rangers. Kepler and Sano are the first pair of teammates–each age 23 or younger–to combine for 10 RBIs in a game in which they each homered since Chipper Jones and Ryan Klesko did that for the Braves in 1995. Before the Atlanta duo, you have to go back to Andre Dawson and Ellis Valentine of the 1977 Expos, and then Lou Gehrig and Tony Lazzeri with the 1927 Yankees to find pairs of that kind.

Max Kepler’s seven RBI yesterday afternoon set a Twins single-game rookie record for RBI. The previous three to have a share of the record of six were Tony Oliva May 7, 1964 against Los Angeles-AL; Oswaldo Arcia September 22, 2013 against Oakland; and Miguel Sano August 12, 2015 against Texas.

According to ELIAS

Sano homers in fourth straight game

Miguel Sano
Miguel Sano

Miguel Sano cracked a fourth-inning round-tripper that extended his home-run streak to four consecutive games in the Twins’ 5-4 win at Seattle. Eighteen days after his 23rd birthday, Sano is the second-youngest player to fashion a four-game home-run streak for the Senators/Twins franchise. Kent Hrbek homered in four straight games for Minnesota at age 22 in 1982.

According to ELIAS

Miguel Sano
Miguel Sano
Jacque Jones
Jacque Jones

Miguel Sano hit a walkoff RBI single as the Twins downed the Indians, 6-5. It was the second straight game in which Minnesota won in walkoff fashion, with Oswaldo Arcia ending Monday’s game with a solo homer. It’s been over 10 years since the Twins last won consecutive games, with each coming of the walkoff variety. On July 19, 2005, Jacque Jones hit a walkoff single to defeat the Orioles and a day later, Jones did it again, ending the game with a home run.

Did you know: That in their history since 1961, the Twins have been walkoff winners 403 times and walkoff losers 407 times?

According to ELIAS

Twins win first road game in 2016

Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano each hit solo home runs as the Twins picked up their first road victory of the season, an 8-1 triumph over the Brewers. Minnesota started the season 0-7 away from home; that was their longest road losing streak to start a season, surpassing the previous mark of six in 1904, when the team was known as the Washington Senators. Over the last five years (since 2012), one other team started a season 0-7 on the road, the 2014 Marlins (lost first seven).

The Twins have hit two home runs in each of their last four games, their longest streak of games with multiple homers since September 2013 (also a four-game streak).

The Twins and their strikeouts – a look back

Twins K vs R charts
Twins strikeouts versus runs scored history. Feel free to click on the chart to make it larger and easier to see.


Our Minnesota Twins and the Atlanta Braves both stand at 0-7 and the race is on to see can win a game first. It is tough when you have just played seven games into a new season and find yourself five games out of the division lead. Never-the-less, Paul Molitor‘s gang will try again tonight.

The Twins might have to consider changing their name to the Minnesota Flailers. Joe Mauer is hitting .375 and Eduardo Escobar is hitting .370 but the rest of the line-up is hitting between .125 and .192 with a combined team OBP of .290. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Byung-ho Park have each struck out in 50% of their plate appearances.

OH! but the strikeouts. Needless to say the team is on a record pace and after seven games, admittedly a small sample size, they have struck out once every 3.29 PA’s and 11.29 times a game. It is hard to miss the ball that often. Their previous worst for strike-outs per PA was 4.34 in 2013, that same Twins team struck out an all-time franchise high of 1,430 times. But if you use the current running rate of 11.29 strike outs per game the 2016 Twins will strike out a record-breaking 1,829 times. I know that is unlikely to happen but right now that is exactly what is happening.

Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan have a huge mess on their hands but things can’t stay this bad for ever. Can they? Everything levels out so we all need to be patient and ride this storm out.

Let’s talk about strikeouts, how bad are they really? We could discuss the pro’s and con’s of strikeouts forever and cases can be argued that a strikeout by a batter is terrible and you could argue that there are worse things than a strikeout. Teams usually tolerate high strikeout rates if power is also involved but what if a batter has mediocre power and still strikes out frequently? What impact do strikeout really have on runs scored? After all, that is the object of the game isn’t it? Score more runs than the opponent and you win the game assuming your pitchers do their jobs.

Let’s take a look at the previous 55 seasons of Twins play. If you look at the numbers nothing really jumps out at you to tell you that strikeout are OK or horrendous. The Twins had an OK season by some standards last year and yet they still struck out 1,264 times and in 2002 they won 94 games and still struck out 1,089 times. On the other side of the coin the Twins only struck out 684 times in 1978 and still only won 73 games. Strikeouts in themselves will not determine if your team will win or not.

The Twins have only scored more runs than they have had strikeouts on four occasions in 55 seasons, in 1976 when they finished 85-77, in 1977 when they finished 84-77, in 1979 when they finished 82-80 and in their 1995 championship season when they were 95-67. Twins history seems to indicate that if you score more often than you strike out than you will have a winning season.

I think it is interesting to note here that Gene Mauch managed the Twins from 1976-1980, none of his team struck out more that 754 times. Just a coincidence or was it his managing style? Yet only three of those five years that Mauch managed the Twins, did they have a winning record and they never won more than 85 games under his leadership.

Strikeouts are obviously up across the board for a variety of reasons, since 2000 the Twins have played 15 seasons, during 11 of those they struck out over 1,000 times, the only other season they struck out of 1,000 times was in 1964.

During the Twins AL championship season of 1965 they struck out 969 times, in 1987 they struck out 898 times, and in 1991 they struck out only 749 times. The Twins have made the playoffs 11 times and they averaged 944 strikeouts during those years. Keep in mind too that six of those 11 playoff years were on this side of 2000.

Twins PA's per K charts

If you added in the running rate of strikeouts in 2016 after just seven games you would see a sharp dive of that blue line to 3.29.

 

Why not bat Joe Mauer first?

The season opener is not far away and in my mind (such as it is) the Twins line-up is pretty well set short of any last-minute injuries. But before spring training ends I would like to see manager Paul Molitor tinker with a few different batting orders to see what might work best.

Mauer, Joe 2016Personally I would like to see the Twins move Joe Mauer to the lead-off spot in the batting order. Mauer has hit in the three hole 1,145 times during his career and he has knocked in less than 53 runs a year from that position if you average it out. You have to be honest, that is a pathetic number, some guys have the knack for getting the runners in, Mauer does not posses that skill. I know that the three hole is usually the teams best hitter but Mauer is not the teams best hitter at this point in his career. Mauer however; has shown a skill for getting on base although his OBP has been dropping the last few years, never the less at this time and with an inexperienced Byron Buxton the time has come to slip Mauer in to the lead-off position. Here is the line-up I would try if I was the Twins manager for a day, I know it is not perfect but I think it is worth a try.

  1. Joe Mauer (L) at 1B
  2. Brian Dozier (R) 2B
  3. Eddie Rosario (L) LF
  4. Miguel Sano (R) RF
  5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B
  6. Byung Ho Park (R) DH
  7. Eduardo Escobar (S) SS
  8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C
  9. Byron Buxton (R) CF

I know I am asking a lot of Eddie Rosario to hit third but I think he has the skills and the patience to hit there. You could swap Dozier and Rosario in the order and have Rosario bat second but the Twins are heavy from the right-side and I like to see the lefty-righty thing for at least the top of the order. Mauer is going to probably be around for several more years, the Twins have to find a way to maximize his skills.

Joe Mauer’s OBP has been dropping but it is still better than most of the Twins hitters so until someone better comes along, why not put Mauer at the top of the batting order? What have you got to lose by at least giving it a shot for a couple of weeks?

Miguel Sano too big to fail

Miguel Sano
Miguel Sano

I have told you all before that my glass is half empty and it is leaking. You can say that it is a negative attitude or what ever you want but this type of thinking has served me well during my life time and it helped me immensely in my 38 year career in IT.

I hope like hell that Miguel Sano has finally found a position he can call home but I can’t help but wonder what would happen if for some reason it does not pan out. It is unlikely that a decision like that would be made quickly because the Twins want and need Miguel Sano to play right field, if Sano isn’t an outfielder all kinds of poop hits the fan.

Let’s look at worst case here for a moment and see what you do with Sano if that should happen. He was signed as a shortstop and the Twins said for several years that he might have to be moved to third base and eventually they did move him to the hot corner. Now with Trevor Plouffe finally playing well at 3B and hitting in the middle of the line-up the Twins aren’t excited about moving him to another position or trading him. Sano has shown (albeit in the minor leagues) he is far from a gold glover at 3B anyway so why take Plouffe off 3B? Last year Sano played a little 3B and DH but you really don’t want to waste an athletic young player like Sano at DH. If he is so athletic why can’t he play outfield or anywhere else for that matter? I think the answer is simply his size, the man is a brute, I didn’t say fat, he is huge for a baseball player. Maybe he eventually settles in at 1B but not for the time being, we have Joe Mauer there, Byung-ho Park was signed as a first baseman, and Kennys Vargas wants to play there too.

Norwood, WillieI have actually spent a lot of time thinking about this situation with Sano so that shows you how my mind works these days. With the way the Twins team is structured there is no way that Sano is not the right fielder for the Twins in 2016 short of a serious injury. Think about it, the Twins have used Harmon Killebrew as an outfielder and even Willie Norwood played outfield for the Twins and he couldn’t catch a cold at your local urgent care center filled with kindergartners.

I can live with Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton covering left and center and Sano camping out in right field because I am not buying a ticket to watch Sano play in the outfield, I am there to watch Miguel Sano hit. Sano has more power that Harmon Killebrew and people will indeed stop whatever they are doing to watch Sano hit, just like they did for Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew. Say what you want, but Miguel Sano is indeed too big to fail no matter how you slice and dice it.

So now what do we do with Max Kepler and Adam Walker? An embarrassment of riches? OH BOY! This going to be fun.