Tag: Michael Cuddyer

How they will finish in 2012

 

Mr. Einstein

With the 2012 baseball season just around the corner, if you don’t count that stupid two game series that the A’s and Mariners played and split in Japan, it is time for us here in Twins Trivia to look into the crystal ball and see what is in store for us this season. They say that baseball is a simple game, all you need to do is hit the ball, pitch the ball and pick-up the ball but I thought I would run it by Mr. Einstein just to be sure.

East

 1. Tampa Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
 

West

1. Los Angeles Angels 
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A’s
 

Central

1. Detroit Tigers (91-71)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80)
3. Minnesota Twins (78-84)
4. Kansas City Royals (76-86)
5. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
 

The Detroit Tigers are far and way the best team in the division and should be up by 10 games at the All-Star break and have a cake walk the rest of the way. However; having picked the Tigers to win the AL Central, the team is certainly not without its problems. The Tigers defense if they continue to pursue going down the Miguel Cabrera at 3B path will be atrocious but I see manager Jim Leyland changing that plan before he gets out of April. But even after Leyland addresses the 3B situation, the Bengals still have defense problems at 1B, 2B, SS, and LF. It will be fun to watch the Tigers hit but when they are in the field it will be a totally different story. The Tiger bullpen is solid although there is no way in the world that closer Jose Valverde has another year in 2012 like he had in 2011. The Tigers other major issue is starting pitching where they have a reigning Cy Young award winner in Justin Verlander followed by Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and the Tigers just announced that Drew Smyly won the last starting spot.  Who is Drew Smyly? Fister, and Scherzer are workable starters on a pennant contender but Porcello and who ever the Tigers have slotted for number 5 will not cut the mustard and the Tigers are going to have to make some moves to fill those holes.

The Cleveland Indians continue to improve albeit very slowly and the team has worked hard to try to improve its starting rotation that includes Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jiminez, Derek Lowe, Jeanmar Gomez, and Josh Tomlin. Twins cast-off Kevin Slowey could not make this starting rotation. Not a great starting rotation, but I have seen a lot worse. The Indians offense lost Gardy Sizemore to injury once again but Sizemore’s best days are now behind him anyway so that is not as great a loss as some may think. On offense the Indians need outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to bounce back after an injury plagued 2011, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to continue to show improvement after a breakout season last year, 2B Jason Kipnis to show that he is for real, Michael Brantley needs to prove he is a legit lead-off hitter, Lonnie Chisenhall to hit to his potential and to earn his way back as the Indians starting 3B, and for 35-year-old Travis Hafner to stay healthy and hit like he can as the teams DH.

I like the Kansas City Royals a lot because of the nice young players they have like Eric Hosmer at 1B, former 3B and now outfielder Alex Gordon, Billy Butler as the DH, Alcides Escobar at SS, and 3B Mike Moustakas. The Royals took a serious blow to the gut when closer Jokaim Soria went down with an elbow issue and will require TJ surgery but maybe the Royals dodged a bullet if free agent signee Jonathan Broxton can bounce back and become a workable closer once again, a long shot to be sure but still, a chance. The Royals starting pitching is what really needs to take a step forward if this team is to become a contender. Luke Hochevar anchors the rotation but he still young and is slowly improving. Jonathan Sanchez who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants has some potential and could become their number 2 starter. Veteran Bruce Chen continues to get his 10-12 wins each year although I don’t know how and Felipe Paulino slides in as the fourth starter although he could miss the first part of the season. Paulino has control issues but he can also strikeout some hitters. The fifth spot is open and the Royals would like to see youngster Danny Duffy lock up that spot. The Royals need to find a way to improve their starting pitching before they can be considered a serious challenger.

I pick the Chicago White Sox to finish in the Central Division basement. The mighty whities are a high-priced team that has under performed and is old to boot. White Sox GM Ken Williams has shown over the last few years that he doesn’t have a clue on how to be a big league general manager and the sooner he is fired the sooner the White Sox can once again can become a contender. The White Sox let Ozzie Guillen go as manager and hired the totally inexperienced former 3B Robin Ventura to manage this motley crew. The Sox have some proven starting pitching in John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jake Peavy but Peavy is always hurt and you can’t count on him to be a solid contributor. Former Twins pitcher Philip Humber was a pleasant surprise for the Sox last season but he remains unproven. The Sox have moved the young fireballing Chris Sale out of the pen and into a starters role so his transition will be closely watched. Since the whities traded their closer Sergio Santos to Toronto during the off-season they are in need of a closer and it appears that Matt Thornton will start the season in that role but indications are that Addison Reed will take over the closers role before the 2012 season comes to a merciful end for the Chicago White Sox.

That bring us to the Minnesota Twins who unfortunately will finish third in this weak AL Central with a 78-84 record. 78 wins does not sound like much but it is a nice 15 win improvement after last years dismal showing. The Twins fired GM Bill Smith and put former GM Terry Ryan back in the driver’s seat but Ryan is driving a Chevy and Twins management is selling it as a BMW and this past off-season instead of going into a rebuilding mode after losing Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and several others, the team decided to try to plug some leaks, drop their payroll by $15 million and see if they can regain their 2010 form. They signed 38 career utility player Jamey Carroll to be their starting shortstop, they signed Josh Willingham to provide some power as a corner outfielder and catcher Ryan Doumit to provide some pop as the back-up catcher. Last season catcher Joe Mauer had a horrible season hitting .287 and playing in just 82 games due to some mysterious injuries that still have not been explained but Mauer has worked hard this spring and you have to think he is back to being the All-Star catcher he should be. 1B Justin Morneau was even worse, hitting .227 with four home runs and playing in 69 games due to a variety of injuries but his major issue was the concussion he suffered in Toronto the previous season. Morneau started spring training playing 1B but midway through spring training he was hitting under .100 and the team decided that Morneau would be the primary DH this season although he would still see time at 1B but I would expect him playing first base less than 30 times this season. Morneau caught fire with his bat but still seldom makes an appearance at 1B in Florida. The Twins need Morneau to hit like he can and to stay healthy but that might be asking a lot based on what Justin has shown the past few years. The second baseman, often injured Alexi Casilla is in a make it or break it season and he has to prove he can play 150+ games, something he has never done. He has already missing games in spring training due to a sore knee. The leader of the Twins “fun bunch” is 3B Danny Valencia who is coming off a “sophomore slump” season in 2011 both with his bat and in the field. Valencia has to start to field at 3B like he cares and to hit more for average versus trying to be that dead pull hitter that he showed in 2011. A little humility by Valencia wouldn’t hurt either, Danny is not God’s gift to baseball even though he seems to think he is. Denard Span has to prove that he is over his own concussion and neck woes and that the Twins can count on him to play day in and day out in centerfield because he has a lot of ground to cover when Willingham is in left and Trevor Plouffe or Ryan Doumit is playing in right. Right field is probably a platoon between Plouffe, Doumit and maybe even Ben Revere who has a throwing arm like a pop gun. The Twins starting pitching is shaky at best and that is kind of funny because going back just a few years the Twins thought their starting pitching was a strength and some bloggers thought we had too much starting pitching but that was just before Kyle Gibson was deemed to need TJ surgery and Alex Wimmers had no clue where home plate was. Francisco Liriano has had a super spring and he is in his contract year but no Twins starter has shown as much “Jekyll and Hyde” personality as Francisco has. One day the man pitches a no-hitter and the next time out he can’t string two good innings together. Scott Baker can be really good but you can also count on Scott Baker to hit the DL at least once each season and this year he will start the season on the DL. I find Baker an interesting pitcher because he makes his living pitching high in the strike zone. What drives me crazy with Baker is that the man never shows any emotion. Get mad, slam your glove down, anything, just show me you are alive Scott. Carl Pavano is one of those guys that goes out and throws 200 innings and gives up 2225 hits but keeps his team in the game. This coming from a guy that had a huge contract with the Yankees between 2005-2008 and was hurt year after year while pitching in just 26 games. Nick Blackburn owns the Twins number 4 starting spot and the sinkerballing right hander is starting his fifth season in the Twins starting rotation. Blackburn, a pitch to contact guy has started at least 26 games each season although his innings pitched have decreased the last two years from a career high of 205 in 2009. Blackburn is one of those guys that gives hitters a comfortable collar but then there are other games when he gives up hit after hit. Blackburn has pitched a few big games for the Twins and has seems to rise to the occasion. The last spot in the starting rotation belongs to newly acquired Jason Marquis a 33-year-old right hander beginning his 13 big league season and is a lot like Pavano, gives up a lot of hits but keeps his team deep into games. Not a stellar rotation by any means but when they pitch well, the Twins have a chance as Gardy might tell you. How about the relievers? Who knows, the Twins resigned Matt Capps to be their closer after Joe Nathan hit the trail for Texas. Capps is not one of the elite closers in the league but does a team that is destined to finish under .500 need an elite closer? I don’t think so and I think Capps can be a good character on this team. Minnesota native lefty Glen Perkins had a breakout season both on the pitching front and out of Gardy’s doghouse. Perkins was outstanding last season and was the Twins best pitcher most of the year. Brian Duensing moves to the bullpen after a disappointing year in the starting rotation in 2011 and he should do a good job there based on what he has shown there previously. Matt Maloney and Jared Burton, both former Redlegs appear to have earned bullpen jobs. Anthony Swarzak is the long guy in the pen and sometimes starter and that role seems to fit him well. The final bullpen spot is still to be determined with Jeff Gray and Alex Burnett still battling it out as spring training winds down. Kyle Waldrop was in the running for the final spot too but he ended up taking a spot on the DL bench.

Ryan did what he could to get more offense on the field but in the process he sacrificed his defense, particularly in the outfield. The fact that the Twins will not have Justin Morneau at 1B will also hurt the other infielders who are used to having Morneau scoop their bad throws out of the dirt. The Twins have numerous holes but they do have some young players that are knocking on the door like Chris Parmelee at 1B, Brian Dozier at SS, Joe Benson in the outfield, Liam Hendriks as a starter and Carlos Gutierrez in the pen. It is starting pitching that the Twins crave but outside of Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers, their does not appear to be a lot there. If the youngsters do indeed turn out to be big leaguers, Ryan will have a core to build on. Deeper in the minors they have some players that could turn out to be stars in a few years. We as fans sometimes fall in love with our teams players and hate to see them go but baseball is like life, you have to keep moving forward and change is necessary, if you stand still,  it means that someone is gaining on you. Change is good, we need to embrace change. Going into 2011 Gardy and Smith talked about the need to add speed, no one talks about speed this year….. I wrote all this and didn’t mention Tsuyoshi Nishioka until just now, see how easy it is to forget?

When the smoke clears, Twins fans should be dancing on Target Plaza if this team can somehow play .500 ball, I unfortunately don’t see it happening in 2012. I just hope that the Twins play some exciting baseball the way it should be played and hopefully fans will still keep coming to Target Field to watch them.

Division winners – Rays, Tigers, Angels

Wild Cards – Yankees, Rangers

Tampa Rays move on to represent the American League in the World Series

Twins Trivia 25 man roster

With the 2012 season less than two weeks away it is still very difficult to predict to will be on the Twins 25 man roster when the Twins take on the Orioles in Baltimore on April 6th. That is not normal for the Twins of recent years but when you lose a few veterans to free agency and the team is coming off a 63-99 record you should not be surprised that there are questions everywhere. I do think the Twins will make a trade or two before the season opens and who knows who might suffer an injury that could change everything. An injury could dramatically change the starting line-up and who makes the 25 man roster on opening day. Here is how I see the team starting the season, I don’t think it will stay that way for long but here is how I see the Twins coming out of the starting gate.

Catcher – The starting catcher will obviously be Joe Mauer who hopefully can catch 120-130 games and play some first base and DH. His primary back-up will be Ryan Doumit. I think the Twins need to carry a 3rd catcher because Mauer and Doumit are both injury prone and will play other positions. I would not be surprised to see all three of their catchers playing in the same game now and then. The Twins third catcher this year will be J.R Towles (an easy addition to the 40 man roster) because the Twins will trade Drew Butera before the season starts to a team that needs a back-up catcher. The Twins are loyal to a fault sometimes and since they have no room in the majors for Butera, they will try to find him a big league job somewhere. Josh Willingham was a catcher earlier in his career so he could be an emergency back stop for Gardy too.

1B – The Twins black hole, the huge unknown. Justin Morneau should be here but I’m afraid we won’t be seeing a lot of Justin at 1B. If Morneau could regain his health, play 1B and even be 90% of what he was in the past, this Twins team would be dramatically better and the team make-up would be much different. The Twins primary first baseman for now and the forseeable future is Chris Parmelee but you will also see Mauer here and Doumit will also show up at first for  a few games and even Luke Hughes can play here if needed.

2B – Belongs to Alexi Casilla but Alexi has played over 100 games in a season only once and that was back in 2006 in the minors. The switch hitting Casilla could really provide a big lift to the team if he can stay healthy and play 150+ games but I think we can count on Alexi taking a mini vacation on the DL this year too. Casilla is a streaky hitter but he has provided some key hits for the Twins over the years. Terry Ryan has always been a Casilla fan but I think he is looking at this year as a “make it or break it season” for Alexi, he either proves he can do it this year or he is history. The back-up second baseman is Luke Hughes but Jamey Carroll can play second too. In an emergency Trevor Plouffe can also play there.

SS – Free agent acquisition Jamey Carroll will start the season at short but I don’t see him holding on to this role for long. Carroll has had over 400 at bats only twice in ten big league seasons, why should things change at 38 years of age? I think by mid June we will see the Brian Dozier shortstop era begin and Carroll who was signed for two years will become the utility player the Twins are looking for, albeit a bit on the expensive side. Casilla will play some short in a back-up role and if the Twins are really in dire straights, they can slip Hughes or Plouffe over there for a game or two.

3B – Should belong to Danny Valencia but he needs to prove he is a big leaguer. Last year was a real downer for Valencia both in the field and at the bat. Hopefully Valencia gets his head screwed on straight and starts playing like he can. Valencia is not the .311 hitter he showed us in 2010 but he is also not the .246 hitter he forced us to watch in 2011 either. Danny needs to adjust his attitude too, he is not a super star so he had better quit acting like one because Minnesota fans will not tolerate it. Hughes is Valencia’s back-up but Carroll and Casilla could play third in a pinch too. In the unlikely event that Valencia is really the 2011 version, hopefully Sean Burroughs is still with the Twins and can be called up. Burroughs can hit, although not with a lot of power and I see him as the last player cut and the Twins 26th man.

LF – Will be manned by Josh Willingham just like I said all along since the Twins signed him. Gardy announced that Willingham is his left fielder after trying Willingham in right all spring. It will be interesting to see how Twins fans react to Willingham as the Twins have not had a hitter like Willingham in some time. Josh did hit a career high 29 home runs in Oakland last season but he also struck out 150 times and had a .246 average. Willingham was a catcher earlier in his career so speed is not his game and he is 33 years old and now there are reports that his arm is not as good as the Twins may have thought. Back-ups here would be Ben Revere, Denard Span, and Trevor Plouffe.

CF – Will be patrolled by Denard Span. The fly in the ointment here would be if Span is not totally recovered from his neck pain or his concussion from last season. Span needs to stay healthy, hit at least .285 steal 25 bases and score about 100 runs if he wants to meet Twins expectations of him in the lead-off spot. The only other outfielder the Twins have to play center is the speedy Ben Revere and he can cover center but his hitting is not all it could be and he throws like a grandmother. The Twins say that Span’s throwing is improved but you can’t make silk from a pigs ear. With Willingham in LF and who ever plays RF be it Doumit, Plouffe, Parmelee, Span and or Revere will have to cover a lot of ground in center because they are the only two outfielders with any speed what so ever.

RF – I think you will see a number of players out here but I think that Ryan Doumit and Trevor Plouffe will get the majority of the time in right. But who ever the Twins put in right other that Span or Revere has to be considered a defensive liability. I think Twins fans will be shocked at how many balls don’t get caught in left and right this season. Who ever plays right might just be keeping the position warm for when Joe Benson gets called up later this season. Benson’s call-up may even move Span to RF.

Bench – Luke Hughes is out of options and is a nice hitter to have coming off the bench. Luke can play all four infield positions, just not well enough to be a starter in any of them. The second bench player is catcher  J.R. Towles who I think beats out Drew Butera. I know that Towles is a .187 hitter as compared to Butera’s .178 but Towles at least has a chance to be a better hitter, I don’t think Butera does. Towles is a good catcher too and earlier this spring I saw him playing 3B and he wasn’t too shabby for a catcher. Butera gets traded. The third member of the Twins bench is Trevor Plouffe the former SS/2B and now an outfielder. Plouffe has some pop in his bat and hopefully he can learn to play the outfield just as Michael Cuddyer did many years earlier and he can still play 2B/SS  if things get hinky for Gardenhire. Ben Revere has my final bench spot simply because the Twins need someone like him to take over in LF or RF late in the game when the Twins have a lead or to come off the bench as a pinch-runner to steal a base.

SP – Is all locked up assuming there are no injuries. Francisco Liriano coming off his best spring ever is pitching like his Twins career depends on it and it is about time. I am not going to get too excited  just yet with Francisco because I know how quickly things can fall apart for him. What a treat it would be if Liriano finally pitched like the ace many predicted he would be. Having said that, if someone offers me an arm and a leg with potential, I trade Francisco so fast it would make your head spin. Scott Baker has the potential to be a very good pitcher but he has hit the 200 inning mark just once in his seven-year career but he is only 30. What frustrates me about Baker is that when he gets some runners on base he turns the game into slo-mo. One more thing, Scott never shows any emotion, some would say that is a good thing, I would say hogwash, I have no problem when a pitcher comes into the dugout after giving up a couple of runs and slams his glove to the bench, show me your care Scott Baker! Baker is like Camilo Pascual in that he likes to take a summer break to the DL list once a year or so, count on it. Carl Pavano is not a great pitcher but he is one of those inning eaters who wants to win. Pavano can pitch on my team any time. Nick Blackburn is my number 4 SP, but I gotta say I don’t understand him at all. Blackie is a sinkerballer who has some great games and others that he just stinks, you just don’t know who you are going to get on any given day. When Nick is healthy, he can throw some innings. The fifth starter is the newest addition, Jason Marquis. I think you will find Marquis to be Pavano like except he gives up fewer hits but walks more batters and when healthy he too will give you 200 innings. The next starter in line should one of the five get hurt or traded is probably Liam Hendriks who could be a lot like Brad Radke if all goes according to plan. Maybe late in the season there may even be a Kyle Gibson sighting, that would be cool.

Bullpen – The Twins bullpen is anchored by closer Matt Capps and I don’t have nearly the issues with Capps that many other bloggers and fans have. He is not the 3 up 3 down kind of closer but he will get the job done when the scoreboard shows the Twins leading late in the game. If former Orioles manager and Hall of Famer Earl Weaver was the Twins manager today he would call Capps a “two-pack closer”.  That meant that Weaver, a heavy smoker could go through two packs of cigarettes as he watched his closer finally shut down the opposition. The set-up guys are left hander and Minnesota native Glen Perkins who escaped the Twins doghouse last season and found his niche with the ballclub and was arguably the Twins top pitcher in 2011. The RH set-up guy appears to be Jared Burton a free agent from this past off-season. Burton is only 30 but he has some injury baggage but a few years ago he was touted to be the Reds closer of the future. Burton has a nice career 7.6 SO/9 but the down side is that he also has a 3.9 BB/9, kind of a more experienced Alex Burnett. The left-handed former starter Brian Duensing will spend the season in the bullpen this year where he is probably better suited. The big right-hander Anthony Swarzak has lost some weight this off-season and some say he has locked down a bullpen spot but I don’t think he has pitched all that well this spring but he has not pitched poorly enough not to earn a spot in the Twins bullpen either. Swarzak is versatile and can pitch several days in a row and that makes him a Twin in 2012. The 28 year-old left handed Matt Maloney is a surprise to me. The former Cincinnati Redleg is striking them out right and left this spring and he has good control, yes, I know, spring training stats mean squat but you have to base your decision on something and that is all I have to go on right now. Maloney seems too good to be true but the Twins “have caught lightning in a bottle” before when they went searching for relief pitchers, maybe they did it again. The final bullpen spot I think is still up in the air between Alex Burnett, Jeff Manship and Kyle Waldrop, all right handers and all with some Twins experience on their resume. If you go strictly by the numbers this spring, Waldrop is the guy for you but Burnett has the most experience and according to Twins management, has upside going for him so I gave the final bullpen spot to the Alex Burnett.

So that is it, that is how I see the Twins roster shaping up for the 2012 season. I would like to tell you that the Twins will contend for the AL Central title this year but I just don’t see that in the cards. I do see the Twins roster turning over as the season moves along and players like Chris Parmelee, Brian Dozier, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Carlos Gutierrez, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros and maybe Kyle Gibson taking on bigger roles at Target field. A number of Twins players will be out to prove that they are still bonified big leaguers this season. 2012 will be a season of change in Minnesota and the July 30 trade deadline could keep GM Terry Ryan real busy. Never the less, I am ready to see the Minnesota Twins open the 2012 season. WIN TWINS!

How about the batting order on opening day? here is how I see it.

Span – CF – bats left
Carroll – SS – bats right
Mauer – C – bats left
Morneau – DH – bats left
Willingham – LF – bats right
Doumit – RF – switch hitter
Valencia – 3B – bats right
Parmelee – 1B – bats left
Casilla – 2B – switch hitter
 

Morneau hitting fourth and Willingham fifth is just Gardy’s loyalty to Justin and reward for his years of Twins service. Morneau and Willingham will switch spots in the batting order very soon.

 

Keep an eye on those “at bats”

Now that the Twins and everyone else have started their exhibition season, we fans once again have box scores to read so we can track how our favorite players are doing. We all know that what a hitter does in spring training games means very little in the grand scheme of things but the fact that a player is playing and getting at bats can mean a lot. The hitters need to shake off the rust and get their timing down. I don’t think it is so much how well the hitter is hitting as it is getting time in the batters box facing live pitching and getting at bats. I am not saying that you should not be concerned if a hitter goes 1 for 25 but at the same time you should not get too excited if a players hits 12 home runs in spring games either.

I think Gardy, the Twins and most of the other baseball teams have fallen into some bad habits over the last few years and maybe go too easy on the veteran players as far as getting their at bats in and have kind of left it up to the individual players to decide when they should play in these exhibition games. How often have you gone to a spring training game and find that the visiting team has only brought 2 or 3 regulars and one of them is probably a pitcher. This is an accepted practice now days and that is a bunch of crap in my humble opinion and it is not good for the fans or the players. Just because a player has been in the big leagues for a few years does not mean that he needs less at bats to get regular season ready. It all comes down to the fact that they don’t want to take those long bus rides, that is a bunch of hoey. Most of the games are within a couple of hours driving distance and yet todays players would rather stay back at camp than take that bus trip and get their 2 or 3 at bats in a game situation. If game situations are not that important, then why are exhibition games played at all, why don’t team just stay home save the money and play intra squad games? I have no problem with a player not playing if he is injured but at the same time that these guys are not playing they say they are healthy and working on preparing for the regular season. If you look back over the spring stats from the last few years you will see that the most at bats that a player usually will get during the spring is around 65 and most of the regular players average between 50-60 at bats in the spring games. Yes,  I know injuries come into play, but let’s take a look at what last years at bat counts were for the Twins regulars:

Mauer – appeared in 8 games and had 20 at bats (15 and 45 in 2010)

Morneau – appeared in 11 games and had 33 at bats (17 and 50 in 2010)

Nishioka – appeared in 20 games and had 58 at bats

Casilla – appeared in 22 games and had 50 at bats

Valencia – appeared in 24 games and had 65 at bats

Cuddyer – appeared in 8 games and had 21 at bats

Span – appeared in 21 games and had 62 at bats

Young – appeared in 18 games and had 48 at bats

Kubel – appeared in 22 games and had 53 at bats

I will be interested to watch the games this spring and see how many at bats the Twins starting line-up actually gets. If you want to follow the Twins spring stats, you can find them here.

How the Morneau situation looks to me

As of today there was no sign of former MVP Justin Morneau at the Twins complex. Without Justin Morneau playing like he did between 2006 and 2009 the Minnesota Twins have no chance. None, nada, zippo, sure Joe Mauer can come back but without the play at first base and the power that Justin Morneau generates when healthy, Twins fans might as well prepare for a long season. Here is my take on what I see happening right now and keep in mind that I have nothing to base my opinion on here except what I see and hear taking place in Fort Myers right now. I have no inside information, I have heard no rumors, nothing, just my gut feel speaking here. I hope I am wrong and I know I am a “glass half-empty kind of guy” but it sure does not look good to me.

  • Let’s start with what I think are facts we do know and can all agree on. Justin has had a habit when he was healthy of being an early training camp arrival earlier in his career but with his recent string of injuries starting in 2010, that has not been the case.
  • The Twins have stated that Morneau is making good progress but has not been cleared by MLB to resume baseball activities, something that team GM Terry Ryan says will be rectified soon.
  • At no point during this past off-season have I heard Morneau say in any interview that he is ready to play in 2012, all I have heard from him is that he is feeling better than he did last spring, that he feels he is making progress and that he is working hard to prepare for 2012.

I think that the Twins are between a rock and a hard spot, Morneau keeps telling them he hopes to be ready to play so the team does not want to display a lack of faith in Justin and possibly also waste salary dollars signing a free agent first baseman if Morneau is indeed ready to go. With season ticket renewal already down due to the teams bad play in 2011, the Twins surely do not want to make a public statement before their 2012 season tickets even go on sale that Justin Morneau will not be the Twins starting first baseman on opening day. If Morneau was indeed healthy, he would have been in Fort Myers a week ago or more, taking part in early drills with his teammates after a disastrous 63-99 season in 2011. A healthy player coming off a serious injury like Morneau is, wants his teammates and his fans to know he is back and 100% healthy.

We will all know a lot more about Justin Morneau’s real status over the next 7-10 days when we see how Morneau performs during spring drills and if he plays in the early exhibition games. My best guess is that Morneau is not ready to play and will not be in the near future and will start the 2012 season on the DL. I only hope we have not seen Morneau’s last big league ball game, but that is a totally different story. I think the Twins will first check out former Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Steve Pearce to see if he can handle the job since he is a natural first baseman. Sure the Twins could try to play Ryan Doumit there but he has no experience to speak of and Gardy has already christened him as the season opening DH. If Pearce can’t do the job than the Twins basically have no choice but to hand the job over to Chris Parmelee who they would dearly love to get more AAA time in Rochester. Luke Hughes is a possibility too but he hurt his shoulder in winter ball in Australia and is not doing any serous work in camp so far. Reports have it that Hughes had a cortisone shot on Wednesday but he still will not be able to workout until this week-end at the earliest so he starts out behind the eight-ball himself. The Twins also have 27 year-old Aaron Bates who has 5 games of major league experience but there is a reason why at 27 he has 5 big league games under his belt. The Twins no longer have Michael Cuddyer to come to the rescue and play first base. Sure the Twins could ask Joe Mauer to move to first full-time but Mauer would not do that on a full-time basis, he wants to catch. So you see, the Twins options are limited. GM Terry Ryan and manager Ron Gardenhire must go to bed each night praying for a miracle and that miracle is that Justin Morneau can not only come back to play first base but that he can play like he did before 2010. A miracle is described as: an effect or extraordinary event in the physical world that surpasses all known human or natural powers and is ascribed to a supernatural cause. Yep, that is what we need!

Home run combo’s

A couple of days ago it was reported that the Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with free agent 1B Prince Fielder on a 9 year $214 million deal. This deal took place just a couple of days after the Tigers reported they may have lost C/1B/DH Victor Martinez for the season due to a torn ACL. Martinez only hit 12 home runs for Detroit last year but he knocked in 100 runs and he hit .330 while Miguel Cabrera hit .344 with 30 home runs while knocking in 108. The top two home run hitters for the Tigers were Cabrera with 31 and SS Jhonny Peralta who hit 21 long balls. Fielder, playing with the Milwaukee Brewers last season hit 38 while teammate Ryan Braun hit 33 for a total of 71 long balls between them. The big question is how do you keep both of these first baseman in the line-up, Cabrera has already been reported as saying that he can move to 3B but having Fielder at 1B and Cabrera at 3B seems like a real stretch, teams would be bunting left and right. Sure one of these guys can DH but both Fielder and Cabrera are over weight and playing in the field helps to control that to some degree, have one sitting on the bench can’t be a good thing. A home run combo like Cabrera and Fielder made me wonder what kind of power combinations the Twins have fielded over the years. Here is what I found.

Rank Year # Home Runs Player Player
1 1964 81 Killebrew – 49 Allison/Oliva – 32
2 1963 80 Killebrew – 45 Allison – 35
3 1962 77 Killebrew – 48 Allison – 29
4 1961 75 Killebrew – 46 Allison – 29
5 1969 73 Killebrew – 49 Oliva – 24
6 1967 68 Killebrew – 44 Allison – 24
7 1986 65 Gaetti – 34 Hrbek – 31
7 1987 65 Hrbek – 34 Gaetti – 31
7 2006 65 Morneau – 34 Hunter – 31
8 1966 64 Killebrew – 39 Oliva – 25
8 1970 64 Killebrew – 41 Oliva – 23
9 2009 62 Cuddyer – 32 Morneau – 30
10 1984 59 Brunansky – 32 Hrbek – 27
10 2007 59 Morneau – 31 Hunter – 28

 

Can Twins bounce back in 2012? What does history tell us?

Our Minnesota Twins are coming off an atrocious 2011 where the team finished 63-99, a full 32 games behind the AL Central Division winning Detroit Tigers and in the process posting the second worst record in all of baseball. But 2011 is behind us now and we look forward to spring and a brand new season of baseball which hopefully will see the Twins back in winning form. In just a little over a month, Twins players from all over the globe will start to congregate in Ft. Myers, Florida to get into baseball shape which I think really means that they will get in a little stretching, jog a little, catch up on the off-season gossip and  start throwing the baseball around and take a few swings with those shiny new bats they just received during the off-season. When a bad season of baseball ends, there is always “next year” and that next year is just about upon us.

Long before baseball was played, back sometime between 1688-1744 the English poet Alexander Pope said “hope springs eternal in the human breast” and no truer words could be said about how baseball fans look at their favorite baseball teams. Forgotten are the numerous injuries, be they real or perceived, the dropped balls, the hitters that couldn’t run out a ground ball, the runners that had brain farts and stood there and watched as the hit and run unfolded in front of them, the fielders that couldn’t throw straight, the pitchers that keep hitting opponent bats, the perplexed pitching coach who wondered why his pitchers couldn’t find home plate even though it was always in the same spot, the manager who had to make up numerous line-ups each day because he didn’t know which of his players were in the mood to play that day, and of course the owner who was left to wonder what happened to his $113 million.

The injuries that plagued the team in 2011 are hopefully healed and with another year of experience under their belts, we all hope the Twins are back and playing baseball the way that Twins fans of today expect. We are not interested in seeing the Twins play ball as they did say between 1971-1986 when they never won more than 85 games and finished as high as second only once, we expect to see a winning team on the field or at least a team that is playing like they want to win versus the 2011 bunch that quit early and often.

So, what does history tell us will happen to the Twins in 2012? I want you to keep reading, but the bottom line is that while miracles can happen, it sure does not look good. The Twins were 31 games worse in 2011 than they were in 2010, 31 games, only once in franchise history had a Senators/Twins team played so much worse than they had the previous season and those were the Washington Senators of 1934 who finished the season 33 games worse with a 66-86 mark after advancing to the World Series in 1933 with a 99-53 record. The following season (1935) they won 67 games, one more than the year before.

So how have Senators and Twins teams bounced back from such dismal seasons? The best the Senators could ever do was improve by 27 games back between 1911-1912 and the best the Twins have done since 1961 is improve by 23 games as the 1965 Twins did when they won 102 games coming off a 79 win season in 1964.

But let’s look at more modern times so we will look at the seasons between 1997 and 2011 because it probably makes for a fairer comparison based on free agency and player movement of today. In the last 15 seasons here is what has happened in the AL Central Division.

The Kansas City Royals worst drop-off was in 2004 when the team finished 25 games worse than they did in 2003. The following season, 2005, the Royals finished 2 games worse. The best improvement that the Royals have shown their fans was when they finished 21 games better in 2003 than they had shown in 2002.

The Chicago White Sox worst drop-off was in 2007 when the team finished 18 games worse than they did in 2006. The following season, 2008, the mighty whitey’s finished 17 games better. The best improvement that the White Sox fans have seen was when they finished 20 games better in 2000 than they had shown in 1999.

The Cleveland Indians worst drop-off was in 2002 when the team finished 17 games worse than they did in 2001. The following season, 2003, the Indians finished 6 games worse. The best improvement that the Indians fans have seen was when they finished 18 games better in 2007 than they had shown in 2006.

The Detroit Tigers worst drop-off was 14 games and it happened twice, once between 1997 and 1998 and again from 2007 to 2008. The following season in 1999 the team improved by 4 games and in 2009 the team improved by 12 games. The best improvement that the Tigers have seen was when they finished 29 games better in 2004 (to a 72-90 season) than they had shown in 2003, but, 2003 was the season the Tigers put up a pathetic 43-119 record.

That brings us to the Twins, whose worst drop-off was 31 games in 2011 from their 2010 season. The biggest improvement the Twins have shown during this 15 year period was in 2001 (TK’s last season as manager) when they finished 16 games better than what they showed us in 2000. In the past 15 years the Twins have improved their record from the previous season 8 times for an average improvement in games won over the previous season of 8 games. On the minus side their record has gotten worse from the previous season 7 times for an average of -11.29 but that is obviously skewed by the big -31 of 2011. If the 2012 Twins could match their biggest improvement of say 16 games as they did in 2001, that still only moves the Twins 2012 record up to 79-83. The Twins have to improve by 18 games just to reach the .500 mark and would have to improve by 27 games to reach the 90 win mark. It does not look promising.

The Twins have improved their previous years mark by 18 games or better on 4 occassions. The feat was accomplished by the 1991 team that improved by 21 games, the 1969 team that improved by 18 games, the 1965 team that improved by 23 games and the 1962 team that was 21 games better than the 1961 team. Four times in 50 seasons, not good odds for sure and remember, an 18 game improvement only takes the team to an 81-81 record, or .500 baseball. The team has lost Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey and a number of bit players but then again, they lost 99 games when they had these guys. I know they added Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and brought back Matt Capps but how many wins will these guys put in the “W” column?

What this team needs in order to play respectable baseball is for Joe Mauer to step back to earth from the “Twilight Zone” that he was in most of last year and catch 130 games and play 1B and DH for 10-15 more. I see no reason why this can’t happen, Mauer should come out of the gate madder than hell and show everyone that 2011 was a fluke. I will believe that when I see it. The next issue is Justin Morneau, here I am not nearly as optimistic. Justin was just a shell of himself in 2011 and I worry that Justin Morneau’s baseball career is coming to a premature end. That would be so sad as Justin should have many more years in him as a productive Twins first baseman. I hope I am totally wrong about Morneau, but if I was a betting man I would say “show me you still got it” Justin. I hope that Danny Valencia thought long and hard about his baseball career since the 2011 season ended because if he continues to play in 2012 like he did in 2011, he will be receiving his fan mail in Rochester come the middle of May. Valencia might not be the .311 hitter he was in 2010 but he sure better not be the .246 hitter he was in 2011 either. A little more work with the glove wouldn’t hurt Danny either. The Twins outfield is a mess, Willingham is a left fielder and the Twins need him to play right because Ben Revere can’t throw out his grandmother. So that forces the team to play Revere in center which is OK in itself but that means you need to move Span to right field but Span says he wants to play center. In my humble opinion, any outfield with Revere and Span both playing at the same time is a bad thing. I am not sure how things are going to shake out but come the second half of 2012, Joe Benson will be playing in the Twins outfield some where. The Twins signed Jamey Carroll to play short but the man has never had a full-time job in 10 big league seasons and he will be 38 before the Twins open the exhibition season. Is that a move that a contending team makes? We can hope that Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes back to life and show us that he really is a professional baseball player……come on, really, there is a chance. Alexi Casilla at 2B is an enigma but I still have hope for this 27-year-old with parts of six big league season under his belt. The bullpen is a couple of sharp knives short of a complete set and the starting staff of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, and Jason Marquis would make any manager nervous.

So here it is, you make up your mind, can the Twins compete or will they have to fight and scratch like hell just to reach the .500 mark? Me? Come October, I think we should all be dancing on Target Plaza celebrating manager Ron Gardenhire’s second manager of the year award with a cold drink in our hand if this collection of Twins can win half of their games in 2012. However; if this this team wins 70 or fewer games in 2012, manager Ron Gardenhire may be looking for a job.

Jason Kubel moves on too

Jason Kubel

The Twins lost another free agent when outfielder/DH Jason Kubel, 29, signed on with the Arizona Diamondbacks for two years and $15 million with an option for 2014. The left-handed Kubel has been in the Twins organization since he was drafted by Minnesota in the 12th round of the 2000 amateur draft. Kubel has played in 753 games for the Twins over seven seasons between 2004 – 2011. Jason sat out the entire 2005 season due to a broken ankle. Kubel’s best season was in 2009 when he hit .300 with 28 home runs and 103 RBI’s. Like may other Twins, Kubel was injured in 2011 and appeared in only 99 games. Kubel made $5.25 million in 2011 and was not a fan of Target Field so I think moving on was a top priority for Jason.

If you check some of the D-Back blogs like Call to the Pen, this is not being looked on very well by some Arizona fans who feel that the D-Backs over paid for Kubel and feel that the Arizonans already have a solid outfield trio in Jason Upton, Chris Young, and Gerardo Parra. So it will be interesting to see how Kubel will fit in, then again maybe Arizona just signed Kubel to move him elsewhere in a deal. Parra seems to be the most likely to losing playing time with Kubel’s arrival in the desert.

I liked Kubel but I saw him primarily as a DH and did not like him as an outfielder and I would not have liked to see Minnesota pay him $7.5 million either. It looks like Kubel and Michael Cuddyer will be playing against each other on a regular basis now since they are both in the NL West.Good luck in Arizona Jason.

Michael Cuddyer agrees to become a Rockie

 

Well, it is pretty much official, Micheal Cuddyer has agreed to join the Colorado Rockies. I know that $31.5 million over three years for Cuddyer is more than the Twins could afford and if I was in the Twins shoes I would have done the same thing. They threw $24-$25 million on the table and hoped that Michael would take it but they knew deep down that he would get better offers. Cuddyer is just not a great fit for the Twins the way things sit right now. I don’t blame Cuddyer at all, he was smart to take the extra $6 or $7 million dollars and move on. I give credit to the Twins for saying they were still in on the Cuddyer hunt after signing Josh Willingham, I’m sure they were just doing Michael a favor to keep the bidding up.

Michael Cuddyer is not the greatest player the Twins have ever put on the field but I think he was one of the most professional and likeable players that the Twins have ever had on and off the field. I will miss seeing Michael in that familiar number 5 as will many other Twins fans and I hope that our paths cross again soon.I thank Micheal Cuddyer for his years of Twins service and I wish he and his family the very best in what ever the future may hold for them.

Twins reportedly ready to sign Josh Willingham

ESPN has reported that the Twins are about to sign 32-year-old free agent outfielder Josh Willingham. Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune is reporting the deal is for 3 years and $21 million. Willingham pocketed $6 million this past season in Oakland. The right-handed hitting Willingham has been in the majors for 8 seasons playing for the Marlins from 2004 – 2008, the Nationals in 2009 -2010 and the Oakland A’s this past season. Willingham hit a career high of 29 home runs for the A’s and knocked in 98 but also hit a career low .246 last season with 150 strikeouts but he did post a .361 OBP.

If this report of Willingham agreeing to a deal with the Twins is accurate, it would appear that the Twins are not going to meet Michael Cuddyer’s reported request for $30 million for 3 years as recent reports have the Twins offering Cuddyer $24 or $25 million. There were reports all day today that Willingham wanted to get a deal done in the next 24-48 hours and that kind of put he pressure on the Twins to do something as they did not want to find themselves in a position of getting neither Cuddyer nor Willingham.

Willingham is not great defensively so the logical position for him is left field but Willingham did play 35 games in right for the Nationals back in 2009. If Willingham is indeed in left, it appears to me the Twins will play Span in center and probably Doumit in right with Revere filling in center and left as needed. The Twins could go with Revere in center and Span in right but I just don’t see that happening too often. Plouffe is probably the fifth outfielder playing left and right field as needed.

Michael Cuddyer

I am thinking that Cuddyer may have over played his hand if he wanted to come back to Minnesota and was hoping that the Twins would raise their offer. The Twins called his bluff and now Cuddyer may have to settle for what he can get from the Rockies but there are now reports that the Marlins might be interested too. The Twins picked up a little more power with Willingham but they lose a good player with more position flexibility. It all goes back to losing 99 games, changes need to be made. The Twins also save $3-5 million over 3 years by going with Willingham versus Cuddyer. In the mean time, former Twins outfielder and DH Jason Kubel sits out there waiting for his turn to come up.

UPDATE December 14 – The Minnesota Twins have finally made the Josh Willingham deal official — a three-year, $21 million contract is a done deal.

If I was Michael Cuddyer

I can’t help but wonder what is going on with Michael Cuddyer. The winter meetings have wrapped up and the Twins still sit back and wait for a decision from Michael Cuddyer. Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire have made it pretty clear that they are chasing Cuddyer but apparently Cuddyer does not want to be caught. Yes, I know that his wife had twins earlier this week but are you telling me that they have not sat down and discussed a possible signing scenario before now?The numbers that are floating around that the Twins have supposedly offered the Twins former right-fielder are 3 years for $24 or $25 million. So I will put myself in Michael’s shoes and tell you what I may be thinking.

I have been in the Twins organization since 1998 and in the big leagues with the Twins since 2001. I will be 33 years old before the 2012 season kicks off and this just might be my last chance to sign a multi-year deal for significant dollars. Last year I made $10.5 million, $9.4 million in 2010, and $7.6 million in 2009. Between 2004 and 2011 (excluding my injury plagued year in 2008 when I only played in 71 games) I have averaged 141 games per year playing all over the field except catcher and shortstop and in 2011 I was the only Twins player selected to participate in the 2011 All-Star game. My wife and I work our butts off for the Twins Community Fund, I give up lots of my own personal time to interact with the fans, I never turn down an autograph request  and I see myself as a leader in the Twins clubhouse. My team sucked in 2011 and a number of players were hurt but some of them didn’t work all that hard to get back on the field, others just plain quit playing and some of the youngsters the Twins brought up had no business being in the big leagues yet. I play hurt because I know that the team needs my right-handed bat in the line-up and because I want to win. The Twins lost 99 games and changes need to happen, I understand that and I am all for it. I know we had a payroll of $113 million last year and we almost became the second team in history to lose 100 games with a $100+ million payroll and now management expects revenue to drop in 2012 so payroll has to drop accordingly, I get that too. What I have a problem with is why I should I take a pay cut for a team that lost 99 games when I was out there day in and day out working my butt off. Why should I have to take a pay cut from $27.5 million the last three years to $25 million? At this stage of my career I want a ring, what are my chances of getting a ring in Minnesota in the next two or three years? I have to think they might be better somewhere else. At first, I thought that Philly was a nice landing spot but it appears that has fallen through but now I am hearing that the Rockies might come across with a 3 year deal that could trump Minnesota’s offer and hitting in Colorado might be fun, but can they win a ring for me? We love Minnesota and we are comfortable living and playing there but damn, I feel like the Twins and the Twins fans just don’t appreciate what I have done here. To many it is all about dollars and cents but I am a human being and I should be valued for what I have brought to the table. I always knew that baseball was a business, but it is a hard and cruel business at times. Albert Pujols just signed a huge $250 million 10-year deal and he will be 32 in a couple of weeks. Is Pujols being paid this princely sum for what he will do or what he did in the past? I know, I know, I am no Albert Pujols but the comparison is he same, should I be paid for what I have done for the Twins in the past or what I will do in the future? I would hope a little of both but right now I am not feeling the Twins love so let’s just hold on for a while and see what else shakes out. Maybe it is time for me to see if the Twins have as much flexibility as I have shown them in the past.

For many of us fans and bloggers it is all about wins, we tend to forget that the players are real people with real families and real problems of their own. We tend to think of them as an inanimate object that we can discard if we find something better. We pull a dollar figure out of out butts and we say that player X is worth X amount of dollars but then again we don’t have to pull out our own wallets and turn over cold hard cash to pay the player salaries. We sometimes get too enamoured with players we see less frequently and we see all the warts on the home town players just because we see them day in and day out.

Cuddyer was originally drafted as a shortstop by the Twins in the first round (ninth over all) of the June 1997 amateur draft and signed with the Twins shortly there after. Cuddyer worked his way up the minor league chain and made his big league debut with the Twins on September 23, 2001 as the DH at the Metrodome. Cuddyer has been with the Twins for 11 seasons now and has been a fixture in right field playing 670 games there but he has also played 210 games at 1B and 171 games at 3B not to mention 79 games at 2B and his lone relief appearance on the mound in 2011. The only positions Cuddy has not played is catcher and ironically shortstop, the position that he was drafted to play back in 1997. Although Cuddyer may not be a superstar, he has been a very valuable part of the Twins organization for a long time. When I think of Michael Cuddyer, I see him as a true professional, he does what ever it takes to win and he represents the Minnesota Twins as well as anyone ever has and that includes Harmon Killebrew. Cuddyer and his wife are also very active in the community and the Twins Community Fund. I have seen Cuddyer interact with baseball fans during spring training and no one does a better job at that than Michael does and he talks with everyone. The Twins organization and Twins fans will miss Michael Cuddyer if he choses to sign elsewhere, I know I will, but then again the money to pay Cuddy does not come out of my pocket.

UPDATE as of December 16 – The Colorado Rockies have agreed to sign Michael Cuddyer to a three-year, $31.5 million deal, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com