Tag: Mets

How well did Twins rookies perform in 2011

The Twins finished the 2011 season with a 63-99 mark and lots of folks including the Twins management blamed the clubs poor finish or at least a big part of it on injuries and that is difficult to argue as the team used the DL list 27 times. The Twins often brought up rookies to fill these openings. How did these rookies perform?

This past season the Twins led all of baseball in games played by rookies with 493, followed by the Mets with 442 and the Mariners with 403. On the other end of the spectrum the rookies only played in 57 Brewers and 73 Rangers games and you know where these teams finished. If you look at rookie plate appearances, the Twins postion playing rookies had 1,805, way ahead of the team closest to them, the Mariners who sent 1,484 rookie batters to home plate. These Twins position rookies ranked in the middle of the pack in base on balls percentage at 6.9%, ranked seventh best in strikeout percentage at 18.2%, were in the middle of the pack with a .245 batting average, and if you look at WAR, the Twins number was 1.0 with the Nationals the highest at 5.8 and the Rockies the lowest at -1.6 .

Looking at the Twins rookie pitchers as compared to all of baseball , the team used fewer rookies there than most teams did this past season. Twins rookie pitchers appeared in 124 games putting them 11 fewest and Twins rookies threw 169.2 innings, only the rookie pitchers for the Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Giants and Red Sox threw fewer innings. These Twins rookies finished with a 5-14 record with a BB/9 of 4.03 and 5.36 K/9, hardly something to shout about. On the other end of things, rookies threw 545.1 innings for the Royals, 527.1 for the Astros, 489 for the Mariners, and 426 for the Braves. These same Twins rookie pitchers posted an ERA of 5.15 trailing only the Giants at 6.40 and the 6.10 Red Sox. The Twins rookie pitchers did not pitch a lot but when they did pitch, they pitched poorly.

I took a look at the Twins rookies as compared to the rest of the American League rookies over the last 10 years and where the team finished and here is what I found.

Year Rookie plate appearances AL rank Rookie innings pitched AL rank Division finish
2011 1,805 1 169.2 13 5th
2010 631 7 88 12 1st
2009 368 11 306.1 8 1st
2008 1,512 2 491.2 2 2nd
2007 520 8 222.1 9 3rd
2006 305 10 376.1 7 1st
2005 1,238 2 246 6 3rd
2004 1,519 1 95.1 12 1st
2003 426 9 130.1 10 1st
2002 962 4 201 9 1st
AVG 928.6 5.5 232.7 8.8 1.9

I am not sure you can reach any definitive conclusions from these numbers like rookies = trouble but they are still fun to look at. For example, the Twins finished last in 2011 when their rookie position players had more plate appearances than anyone but you compare that with 2004 when their rookie position players again led the league in PA’s but the team finished first.

But one thing that you can take away from this is that Gardy and pitching coach Rick Anderson are not big fans of young rookie pitchers based on the fact that the Twins rookie pitchers have been consisently in the bottom half of the division in innings pitched each year averaging just 232.7 innings and a ranking 9th of 14 teams. Twins rookie pitchers have only finished in the upper half of league innings pitched 3 three times in 10 seasons.

Did you know?

Ron Gardenhire
Steve Carlton

Most Twins fans know that current Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire played for the New York Mets between 1981 – 1985 playing in 285 games, mostly at short but he also played some second and third base. Hitting was not Gardy’s strong suit as he posted a career average of .232 with 4 home runs, walking 46 times and struck out 122 times in 777 plate appearances. But did you know that Gardy “owned” the Hall of Famer that everyone called “Lefty”? You better believe it, the right-handed hitting Gardenhire had 30 at bats against Carlton over the years and had 11 hits including a home run and put up a cool .367 batting average and .387 OBP against the hall of famer. Lefty did manage to strike out Gardy 8 times. On the other hand, Fernando Valenzuela faced Gardenhire 12 times and all Gardy got for his efforts was one base on balls.

How they will finish in 2011

March 31, 2011 – I know the season started today and I am a bit slow with my predictions for this year but here is how I see things playing out. Sorry to say, but I don’t see the Twins winning the AL Central this year, the new champs of the Central will be those “dag nabbit” Mighty Whitey’s. I see the Chicago White Sox as just beating out the Twins by 1 ½ games in a season long battle for supremacy. But things aren’t all bad, as the Twins will be the American league wild card winners for the first time in their history. Here is how I see the Division races ending up.

Finish AL East AL Central AL West
1 Red Sox White Sox Rangers
2 Yankees Twins * A’s
3 Rays Tigers Angels
4 Orioles Royals Mariners
5 Blue Jays Indians  
       
Finish NL East NL Central NL West
1 Braves Reds Rockies
2 Phillies * Cardinals Giants
3 Marlins Brewers Padres
4 Nationals Cubs Dodgers
5 Mets Pirates D-Backs
    Astros  

* – Wild Card Winner

The Twins will make some progress in the playoffs this year but they will only win one series and get beat out in the ALCS by the Boston Red Sox who will face the Atlanta Braves in the World Series. The Boston Red Sox will become the World Champions in 5 games.

 

Sad to see

August 26, 2009 – Elias reported today that the New York Mets announced on Tuesday that former Twins ace Johan Santana will undergo season-ending surgery on his left elbow. Only two pitchers have started more games than Santana since the 2003 All-Star break, when he joined the Twins’ rotation. The leaders during that time: Derek Lowe, 209; Barry Zito, 208; Johan Santana, 207; Livan Hernandez, 205; Mark Buehrle, 204.

To me it is always depressing when star pitchers go down, but for me, Johan Santana is something special, besides playing for the Twins at one time, I really enjoy watching Johan pitch. I think it is interesting to note too that most of the starts for the pitchers named above came in the American league where the DH exists. Coincidence? Maybe. Get well soon Johan!

Santana now a New York Met

February 1, 2008 – So the Twins have traded Santana to the Mets and in return acquired 22 year old outfielder Carlos Gomez, and right handed pitchers Philip Humber, also 25, Kevin Mulvey who is 22 along with 18 year old Deolis Guerra. Although the final numbers have not yet come out, it sounds like the deal may be for 7 years and $150 million. Wow, Johan is the best pitcher in baseball but I see this as a huge risk for the Mets, seven years is a long time and that golden arm could get weary and sore before 7 years comes and goes.

If the Yankees offered Hughes and Cabrera and a bag of balls I would have much preferred that deal to this deal with the Mets. As for the Red Sox offer, I am not sure that Ellsbury has proven himself just yet so I have no problem passing on that deal. We will never know if the Yankees or the Red Sox actually offered the players that were rumored. As a Twins executive told me this week-end, it takes two teams to make a deal. I interpret that to mean that maybe the Yankees and Reds Sox deals weren’t the names that were so often bandied about because I can’t believe that the Twins would pass on a deal that included Hughes and Cabrera.

This deal with the Mets bothers me because there are no sure fire players that we can just plug in the line-up now. Force feed Gomez in CF to start? Maybe, maybe later in the season. The Twins can still be a fun team to watch this year but they can’t compete with the Tigers or the Indians. I think the Twins can play with the mighty Whities and the Royals but the Royals can be tough if their pitching shows up.

The Twins need to solidify their pitching and they could go a long ways down that road if Liriano can came back strong but that is a lot to hope for in 2008, and more likely to happen in 2009. Can Baker, Slowey or Bonser step up and fill the 2 through 4 spots? That leaves the final spot up for grabs between Blackburn, Perkins, and Humber. I would love to see Perkins in the rotation but with his history I am not sure he can stay healthy throwing that many innings. It is hard to be real confident in these guys and I am thinking we will get some good starts and a number of bad starts from this group as they learn.

So, if that is the case, why not do the same thing with the position players and try this line-up? Casilla leads off at 2B followed by Mauer catching, Young hitting third in left, Morneau bats cleanup and plays 1B, the right fielder Cuddyer bats fifth and the six hole is filled by DH Kubel, Lamb the 3B bats 8th and Everett hits 9th. Why not give Casilla and Gomez a shot and see if they can handle the job and learn how to play in the big leagues. With questionable pitching we can’t afford to give up any extra outs so we need strong defense up the middle and Gomez and Casilla should fill the bill. Plus, these guys should steal 90-100 bases between them. The Twins hitting this year will surprise some people. Mauer should bounce back big after an injury plagued season, the newly acquired Young can be a RBI machine, Morneau can improve, Kubel is just starting to get comfortable and I look for a big improvement with Jason. Lamb will add some power to the lineup and I think Everett will surprise a lot of people with his hitting.

My biggest concern with the Twins is their bullpen because I can see it getting over worked with the inconsistent starting pitching. I think Gardenhire and his coaches will earn their pay this year as they guide this young team through the season.

As for the other teams? This deal helps the Red Sox because they keep all their chips and don’t have to face Santana as a Yankee. They still need to move Crisp and I would not mind seeing him in Minnesota for a year or so while Gomez gains experience and learns the Twins ways in Rochester. The Yankees are hurt big time by this deal because now the Mets have the best pitcher in baseball across town and the Yankees still have to go into the season with either the old goat or the kindergarten pitching staff and neither option will end up being very appealing.

Twins Need to Move Forward!

January 11, 2008 – Here it is January 11 and Johan Santana is still a Twin. Don’t get me wrong, I would like to see Johan wear a Twins uniform his entire career but in reality we know that is not going to happen. The Twins have stated that they would like to sign Johan but giving him a 4 year extension for $80 million but I just don’t see that happening. That means that they either trade him now or at the trading deadline or they let him walk and get nothing in return. Letting him walk and getting nothing does not make sense for a team that is dependent on promoting from within. Waiting to make a deal at the trading deadline is risky business, maybe they get more or they get less then they can get today. But what would happen if the Twins were in contention at the trading deadline, what message would that send to both the players and the fans if they sent Johan packing then? That would just paint the Twins in a corner. It just makes sense to move Santana now and be done with it. The Twins also need to make a decision on center field and hopefully that problem goes away in any trade they make for Johan.

The Mets seem to have interest in Santana and the names that have been tossed around are Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. Gomez is a 21 year old top notch Mets prospect that some say could be another Carl Crawford type of player. But is he ready to play in the bigs this year? The Mets seem to think no. Martinez , only 19 years of age, played in the eastern league last year and is nowhere near ready for the majors but is considered a top prospect, maybe the Mets top prospect. Humber, 25, a right hander and a former first round selection is in contention for a spot in the Mets rotation but has no real big league experience to speak of and has had Tommy John surgery in his recent past. Mulvey, 21 and right handed had a cup of coffee at the AAA level and is also in contention for a spot in the Mets rotation this year. Guerra who will not be 19 until April is a 6’5” right hander with 1 year of pro ball experience.

The Yankees keep changing their mind from day to day as to their status in the Santana hunt. I don’t buy that, the Yankees need starting pitching and I don’t think they want to start the season with that much youth in the rotation. The Yankees have supposedly offered Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and some other low level prospects. The Twins want Ian Kennedy included in the package but so far the Yanks have said “no deal”. Hughes, 20 and right handed is a strapping 6’5” and is projected to be a star in the near future and will start the season in the Yankee rotation assuming he is not traded to Minnesota. Cabrera, a switch hitting 23 year old already has several years of ML experience and will probably never be a super star but can fill the center field hole for the Twins.

The Red Sox seem to be playing it close to the vest and have offered Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie. .Masterson is a 23 year old right hander who stands 6’6” and reaches 94 on the radar gun now and then. Some scouts say that long term he will make a better reliever then a starter. Lowrie is a 24 year old shortstop that some scouts say will end up as a 2B in the majors. Range is average but his throwing accuracy has been questioned. Lowrie played in the Arizona Fall league this past season but was not impressive with 1 home run and a .163 batting average in 98 at bats. Lester, a feel good story who has beaten cancer, is a 24 year old lefty who is 11-2 in 26 starts for the Red Sox the last 2 years and has a decent strike out to innings pitched ratio. Crisp is 28 and is a switch hitting lead off type hitter who can steal 25-30 bases for the Twins and play a nice center field. Although his average has been in the .260 range the last two years, Coco is a nice player that needs to get out of Boston. The Twins want Jacoby Ellsbury instead of Crisp but Boston is resisting sending the young prospect and World Series hero to Minnesota in the same package with Lester. The Red Sox also have Clay Buchholz who the Twins would take in a second but Boston is not even talking about him.

So, what should the Twins do? First off we eliminate the Mets deal since they are not offering any immediate line-up help although down the line this might be a good deal for the Twins. That brings it back to the Yankees and the Red Sox. Although I like Crisp to play center and Lester can crack the Twins rotation, I would pass on the Red Sox deal simply because they are NOT offering their top prospects in Ellsbury and Buchholz and they want the top pitcher in baseball in return. I would go to Boston just before I take the Yankee deal and tell them if they want Santana before we send him to the Yankees that you need to give up Crisp, Buchholz, and Lester. The reason I say Crisp instead of Ellsbury is that Ellsbury has not proven himself over a full year at the major league level. If the Red Sox say “no”, then I have no problem going to the Yankees and taking their offer of Hughes, Cabrera, and a minor leaguer or two. I plug Hughes into the Twins rotation and put Cabrera in center and we are ready to play some baseball. Then the only hole is at 2B but maybe Punto and Harris can platoon there and fill that slot. Come on Twins, let’s get this deal done!