Tag: Kevin Slowey

The road to Minnesota is long and hard

long windy roadThe 2013 MLB draft is coming up on June 6-8 and baseball fans everywhere are excited about the draft and can’t wait to see what great players their teams will draft. Some fans will agree with the home towns team picks and others will complain loud and hard about how clueless the picks may have been. Certain fans spend a lot of time studying who is available to be picked and who will drop to their favorite team when it is their turn to pick. There are even fans out there that are more interested in the minors then they are in their major league team. I enjoy following the Twins minor league teams too but unless I lived in one of their minor league cities, I don’t understand the love affair with minor league players because if the player you are cheering for does well, he moves up the ladder and you no longer get to watch him play.

From 1965 when the free agent draft first started until 2012 each professional team has drafted about 50 players each year and signed what, maybe half of them? In 2012 MLB changed the June amateur free agent draft from 50 rounds to 40 rounds. Some of the players drafted are labeled “can’t miss” prospects while others will be long-term projects, they may come out of high school, junior college, or out of a 4 year college. Some of the picks may eventually find their place to the Hall of Fame one day while others may never even get a sniff of a major league spring training invite. Regardless where they come from, they all have the same dream, to get paid for playing a game they love. The road to the big leagues is a long and torturous one and most of the players that start this long hard journey will fail. The odds are long but as long as there is a chance, there will be players willing to sacrifice everything to get there. Players are often willing to risk it all, including their future health and a long life by taking drugs just to wear a major league uniform.

Feel free to get excited about Twins draft picks in 2013 but remember that the road to Target Field is long and bumpy and full of potholes that can take a player out of action for a day, a week, a month, a year, and maybe forever. Most importantly, no matter how good the player may be, it is unlikely that they will wear a Minnesota Twins uniform before their fourth year of professional baseball unless they are a collegiate pitcher. Miracles can certainly happen but history tells us that if Joe Mauer couldn’t get here in quicker than his fourth year, then the odds are pretty slim.

How many get drafted and signed?

I am not sure that most fans understand how few draftees actually ever get the opportunity to put on the major league uniform of the team that drafted them. To give everyone a better understanding of how few make it and how long the road can be I spent some time looking at the Twins drafts for the last 15 years (1998-2012). During this time period the Twins have drafted about 758 players (about 50 a year) and they sign maybe half of them. In the case of the Twins from 1998-2012 they have signed 372 players, 49.08% to pro contracts.

Some interesting and fun facts about the drafts from 1998-2012

  • Of these 372 players, 41 (about 11.02%) have reached the big leagues wearing a Minnesota Twins uniform and eight more (about 2.15%) reached the big leagues wearing a uniform of another big league team. That means that as of May 17, 2013, 13.17% of the players the Twins drafted and signed from 1998-2012 have put on a big league uniform. In addition, many of these players big league careers were very short.
  • Of the 41 players that debuted with the Twins, 20 were drafted out of high school and the quickest to appear in a big league game were C Joe Mauer and OF Ben Revere (both first round picks) in their fourth year of pro ball. On the end other end of the spectrum it took 38th round pick Tommy Watkins until his 10th year of pro ball before he put on the Minnesota Twins uniform. You really have to love baseball to be willing to put in that many years to achieve your goal of putting on a major league uniform. The 20 players drafted from high school were 13 position players, 5 RHP and 2 LHP.
  • Of the 41 players that debuted with the Twins, 4 were drafted out of junior college and the quickest to debut with the Twins were Rene Tosoni (round 36) and Terry Tiffee (round 26) in year five. The longest wait was for Willie Eyre a RHP who debuted in year eight. The 4 players drafted from junior college were two position players and two RHP.
  • Of the 41 players that debuted with the Twins, 17 were drafted out of a 4 year college and the quickest to debut were first round picks Matt Garza and Adam Johnson, both RHP who debuted in year two of pro ball. Having said that, Johnson pitched in 9 Twins games before being released and Garza pitched in 26 Twins games before being traded. The quickest 4 year college position players to debut were SS Brian Dozier an eighth round pick and C Chris Herrmann a sixth round pick in year four. First round pick RHP Matt Fox was on the slow and steady road and debuted in his seventh season of pro ball and pitched in just 1 game in a Twins uniform. Six days after he pitched for the Twins the Red Sox claimed him on waivers from Minnesota. The 17 players drafted from a 4 year college were 5 position players, 10 RHP and 2 LHP.
  • Only two pitchers drafted by the Twins in this time period have started 100 or more games, Scott Baker started 159 games and Nick Blackburn started 137 games.
  • The most wins in a Twins uniform for a pitcher drafted by the Twins during this fifteen year period is 63 for Scott Baker, second with 43 victories is Blackburn.
  • The Twins have only drafted three players that made an All-Star team, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau with the Twins and Evan Meek who the Twins released made the NL All-Star team with the Pirates.
  • The Twins have drafted two league MVP winners (Mauer and Morneau).
  • The top three home run hitters drafted by Minnesota between 1998-2012 are Justin Morneau with 206, Jason Kubel with 104, and Joe Mauer with 96. You know who is fourth? Trevor Plouffe with 38. Yikes!
  • The perception is that the Twins draft and “grow” their own players. But, the drafts from 1998-2012 have produced just ten regular position players and six of them are on this years team.  1B Justin Morneau, OF Jason Kubel, C Joe Mauer, OF Denard Span, 3B Danny Valencia, OF/1B Chris Parmelee, OF Ben Revere,  3B Trevor Plouffe, 2B Brian Dozier, and OF Aaron Hicks.
  • This years Twins staff has 3 pitchers the Twins drafted and signed between 1998-2012 on the current roster and they are Glen Perkins a first rounder out of a 4 year college, Brian Duensing a 3rd rounder out of a four-year college, and Anthony Swarzak a 2nd round pick out of high school.
  • The draft class of 2006 has produced the most players that have gone on to wear a major league uniform, as of today, seven players have made their major league debut and all were in a Twins uniform.

 

Drafts year by year

Year Drafted Signed Twins Debut Other Debut High School College
2012 43 27 0 0 0 0
2011 52 33 0 0 0 0
2010 50 31 0 0 0 0
2009 51 24 2 0 0 2
2008 52 24 1 0 1 0
2007 50 22 1 0 1 0
2006 51 19 7 0 3 4
2005 54 20 5 1 1 5
2004 54 25 6 0 3 3
2003 50 27 1 1 0 2
2002 50 18 3 2 3 2
2001 50 30 3 1 2 2
2000 52 25 5 0 4 1
1999 50 23 5 1 4 2
1998 49 24 2 2 1 3
TOTALS 758 372 41 8 23 26

Interactive Whiteboards by PolyVision

Details year by year

2012 – zero so far

2011 – zero so far

2010 – zero so far

2009 – Chris Herrmann was drafted in the 6th round as a C after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 9/16/2012 in his fourth year of professional baseball. Herrmann has played in 7 games for the Twins and is currently in their organization.

2009 – Brian Dozier was drafted in the 8th round as a SS after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 5/7/2012 in his fourth year of professional baseball. Dozier is currently the Twins starting 2B.

2008 – Aaron Hicks was drafted in the first round (14th overall) as an outfielder out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 4/1/2013 in his sixth year of professional baseball. Hicks is currently the Twins starting center fielder.

2007 – Ben Revere was drafted in the first round (27th overall) as an outfielder out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 9/7/2010 in his fourth year of professional baseball. Played in 254 games for the Twins before being traded to Philly after the 2012 season.

2006 – Chris Parmelee was drafted in the first round (20th overall) as an outfielder out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 9/6/2011 in his sixth year of professional baseball. Parmelee is currently with the Twins and starting in right field.

2006 – Joe Benson was drafted in the 2nd round as an outfielder out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 9/6/2011 in his sixth year of professional baseball. Still in the Twins system, Benson has 24 games in the books as a Minnesota Twin.

2006 – Tyler Robertson was drafted in the 3rd round as a LHP out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 6/26/2012 in his seventh year of professional baseball. Still in the Twins system, Robertson has 42 games on his Minnesota Twins resume.

2006 – Brian Dinkelman was drafted in the 8th round as a 2B after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 6/4/2011 in his sixth year of professional baseball. Still in the Twins system, Dinkelman has 23 games on his Minnesota Twins resume.

2006 – Jeff Manship was drafted in the 14th round as a RHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 8/15/2009 in his fourth year of professional baseball. Manship left the Twins as a free agent after the 2012 season and is currently in the Rockies system and to date has appeared in 41 big league games, all with the Twins.

2006 – Danny Valencia was drafted in round 19 as a 3B after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 6/3/2010 in his fifth year of professional baseball. After playing in 273 games for the Twins he was traded to the Red Sox in August 2012 where he appeared in just 10 games before the Red Sox sold him to the Baltimore Orioles and Valencia is in their system today.

2006 – Anthony Slama was drafted in the 39th round as a RHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 7/21/2010 in his fourth year of professional baseball. Still in the Twins system, Slama has 7 games on his Minnesota Twins resume.

2005 – Matt Garza was drafted in the 1st round (25th overall) as a RHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 8/11/2006 in just his second year of professional baseball. Garza pitched in 26 games for the Twins before they traded him to Tampa in November 2007. Garza was eventually traded to the Cubs where he is today. Garza has a total of 170 big league games under his belt.

2005 – Kevin Slowey was drafted in the 2nd round as a RHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 6/1/2007 in his third year of professional baseball. Slowey pitched for the Twins in 100 games before being traded in December 2012 to the Rockies. The Rockies quickly moved him to the Indians where he spent 2012 in the Indians organization and left as a free agent after the 2012 season to sign with the Marlins where he is currently pitching.

2005 – Brian Duensing was drafted in the 3rd round as a LHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 4/10/2009 in his fifth year of professional baseball. Duensing is currently with the Twins and has pitched in 183 games wearing a Twins uniform.

2005 – Alex Burnett was drafted in round 12 as a RHP out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 4/8/2010 in his sixth year of professional baseball. Burnett pitched in 174 games for the Twins before being waived this past March and picked up by Toronto. Toronto waived Burnett after about 2 weeks and the Orioles claimed him and he is currently in their system.

2005 – Rene Tosoni was drafted in round 36 as an outfielder out of a junior college and debuted with the Twins on 4/28/2011 in his fifth year of professional baseball. Tosoni appeared in 60 games for the Twins before leaving the organization as a FA in November 2012.

2005 – Steve Tolleson was drafted by Minnesota in the fifth round as a shortstop after 4 years of college. Tolleson was claimed on waivers by the A’s in February 2010 and made his big league debut with Oakland on 4/28/2010 in his sixth year of professional baseball. Todate Tolleson has appeared 54 big league games with the A’s and Orioles now finds himself in the White Sox organization.

2004 – Trevor Plouffe was drafted in the 1st round (20th overall) as a SS out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 5/21/2010 in his seventh year of professional baseball.  Plouffe is currently the Twins starting 3B.

2004 – Glen Perkins was drafted in round 1 (22nd overall) as a LHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 9/21/2006 in his third year of professional baseball. Perkins is currently the Twins closer.

2004 – Kyle Waldrop was drafted in the 1st round (25th overall) as a RHP out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 9/5/2011 in his eighth year of professional baseball. Waldrop pitched in 24 games before being granted FA in November 2012. Waldrop is currently in the Pirates organization.

2004 – Matt Fox was drafted in the 1st round (35th overall) as a RHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 9/3/2010 in his seventh year of professional baseball. Fox pitched in one game for Minnesota before being claimed on waivers by the Reds Sox in September 2010 where he pitched only 3 times before being waived and claimed by the Mariners.

2004 – Anthony Swarzak was drafted in the 2nd round as a RHP out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 5/23/2009 in his sixth year of professional baseball. Swarzak is currently a Twins reliever.

2004 – Matt Tolbert was drafted in the 16th round as a SS after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 4/1/2008 in his fifth year of professional baseball. Tolbert appeared in 247 games as a Twins before being granted FA in October 2011. Tolbert spent a year in the Cubs organization and is now with the Phillies organization.

2003 – Scott Baker was drafted in the 2nd round as a RHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 5/7/2005 in his third year of professional baseball. Baker pitched in 163 games for the Twins before sitting out 2012 with TJ surgery. Baker left the Twins after 2012 and signed with the Cubs but is currently on their Disabled List.

2003 – Levale Speigner was drafted in the 14th round as a RHP after 4 years of college and was selected from the Twins as a Rule 5 pick by the Nationals in December 2006 and made his big league debut with Washington on 4/2/2007 in his fifth year of pro ball. The Nats returned Speigner to the Twins in June 2007 but worked a trade with Minnesota and reacquired Speigner a few days later.

2002 – Denard Span was drafted in the 1st round (20th overall) as an outfielder out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 4/6/2008 in his sixth year of professional baseball. Span appeared in 617 games for the Twins before being traded to the Nationals after the 2012 season.

2002 – Jesse Crain was drafted in the 2nd round as a RHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 8/5/2004 in his third year of professional baseball. Crain appeared in 376 games, all in relief, before leaving Minnesota and signing a free agent deal with the White Sox where he has pitched ever since.

2002 – Pat Neshek was drafted in the 6th round as a RHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 7/7/2006 in his fifth year of professional baseball. Neshek pitched in relief in 132 games for the Twins before being claimed on waiver by the Padres. After leaving the Padres, Neshek was in the Orioles organization before being purchased by the Oakland’ A’s where he is currently pitching.

2002 – Evan Meek was drafted in the 11th round as a RHP out of high school. After 3 years in the Twins system in which Meek had pitched 97 innings and walked 100 batters and struck out 84, the Twins had seen enough and released him in June 2005. Meek hooked on with the Padres and eventually moved on to the Pirates where he made his big league debut on 4/2/2008 in his sixth year of professional baseball. In 2010 he made the NL All-Star team. Meek is currently in the Rangers organization.

2002 – Kyle Phillips was drafted in the 1oth round as a C out of high school but was released by Minnesota in April 2006. Phillips caught on with the Brewers but they too released him and he joined the Blue Jays and made his major league debut on 9/14/2009 in his eighth season of pro ball. In total, Phillips played in 5 games for the Blue Jays in 2009 and 36 games for the Padres in 2011 and is no longer in baseball.

2001 – Joe Mauer was drafted in the first round and first overall as a C out of Cretin-Derham Hall High School and debuted with the Twins on 4/5/2004 in his fourth year of professional baseball. Mauer has appeared in 866 games for the Twins. Mauer has been a league MVP and 5 time All-Star.

2001 – Jose Morales was drafted in the third round as a SS out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 9/8/2007 in his seventh year of professional baseball. The Twins converted Morales in to a catcher in 2003. Morales appeared in 96 games for Minnesota before being traded to the Rockies after the 2010 season. After leaving Colorado, Morales was in the Pirates organization for a while but is not currently affiliated with a major league team.

2001 – Nick Blackburn was drafted in the 29th round as an RHP out of a junior college and debuted with the Twins on 9/3/2007 in his sixth year of professional baseball. Blackburn has pitched in 145 games for the Twins, mostly as a starter. Blackburn is currently rehabbing an injury and is not currently on the Twins 40 man roster.

2001 – Kevin Cameron was drafted in the 13th round as a RHP after 4 years of college and claimed by the Padres in December 2006 as a Rule 5 draftee. Wolfe made his big league debut on 4/5/2007 with the Padres in his seventh year of professional baseball. Cameron’s big league career lasted 69 games from 2007-2009.

2000 – Adam Johnson was drafted in the 1st round and second overall as a RHP after 4 years of college and debuted with the Twins on 7/16/2001 in his second year of professional baseball. Johnson appeared in 9 games for the Twins between 2001 and 2003 and was released by Minnesota after the 2004 season. Johnson played for the Arizona and Oakland organizations but never again reached the big leagues and was out of pro ball after 2006.

2000 – J. D. Durbin was drafted in the 2nd round as a RHP out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 9/8/2004 in his fifth year of professional baseball. Durbin pitched in 4 games for Minnesota before being picked up by the Diamondbacks on waivers in March 2007 where he appeared in one game. Durbin then became a waiver claim of the Red Sox but never appeared in a game there before he was again waived and picked up by the Phillies where he pitched in 18 games. 2007 was the last time that Durbin spent time in the big leagues. Durbin then spent time with the Dodgers organization, played in Mexico, Japan and several independent leagues and was once again signed by the Red Sox this past spring before again being released.

2000 – Jason Miller was drafted in the 4th round as a LHP out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 5/26/2007 in his eighth year of professional baseball. Miller appeared in just 4 games with the Twins and was out of baseball after the 2008 season.

2000 – Josh Rabe was drafted in the 11th round as an outfielder out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 7/17/2006 in his seventh year of professional baseball. Rabe appeared in a total of 38 games as a Twins and was granted free agency after the 2007 season. Played some independent ball in 2008 and then left baseball in his rear view mirror.

2000 – Jason Kubel was drafted in the 12th round as an outfielder out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 8/31/2004 in his fifth year of professional baseball. Kubel played in Minnesota through the 2011 season appearing in 753 games before leaving via free agency after the 2011 season and signing with Arizona where he is still playing today.

1999 – Rob Bowen was drafted in the 2nd round (Expos took Brian Phillips one pick later and the Pirates selected Ryan Doumit 3 picks later) as a catcher out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 9/1/2003 in his fifth year of professional baseball. Bowen appeared in just 43 games before moving on to play for the Padres, Cubs and A’s during his 5 big league seasons and 216 big league games.

1999 – Justin Morneau was drafted in the 3rd round as a catcher out of high school and debuted with the Twins on 6/10/2003 in his fifth year of professional baseball. Morneau was converted to full-time 1B duties in 2001. Morneau has been a league MVP and four-time All-Star and has appeared in almost 1,200 games for Minnesota.

1999 – Travis Bowyer was drafted in the 20th round as a RHP out of a high school and debuted with the Twins on 9/10/2005 in his seventh year of professional baseball. Bowyer pitched in 8 games for Minnesota and in December 2005 was traded to the Marlins for 2B Luis Castillo. Bowyer never pitched for the Marlins and was actually out of baseball for 7 seasons before surfacing with an independent league in 2012.

1999 – Willie Eyre was drafted in the 23rd round as a RHP out of a junior college and debuted with the Twins on 4/6/2006 in his eighth year of professional baseball. Eyre appeared in 42 games for the Twins in 2006 and was granted free agency after the season ended. Eyre went on to pitch for the Rangers and the Orioles.

1999 – Terry Tiffee was drafted in the 26th round as a 1B out of a junior college and debuted with the Twins on 9/1/2004 in his fifth year of professional baseball. Tiffee appeared in 91 games for the Twins between 2004-2006 and in 6 games for the Dodgers in 2008 but has been in the minors ever since.

1999 – Brian Wolfe was drafted in the 6th round as a RHP out of high school and released by Minnesota in May 2005. Wolfe was with the Brewers and Blue Jays organizations and  debuted with the Blue Jays on 5/30/2007 in his ninth year of professional baseball. Wolfe’s big league career lasted just 72 games but Wolfe has pitched in Japan since 2010.

1998 – Kevin Frederick was drafted in the 34th round as a RHP after 4 years of college and made his big league debut with the Twins on July 15, 2002 in his fifth year of pro ball. Frederick appeared in 8 games for Minnesota before being waived and claimed by the Blue Jays in March 2003 where he appeared in 22 games but that proved to be the end of the line as far as Frederick’s big league career was concerned.

1998 – Tommy Watkins was drafted in the 38th round as a SS out of high school and made his big league debut with the Twins on August 10, 2007 in his tenth year of pro ball. Watkins appeared in just 9 games for the Twins and moved in to the Twins minor league coaching ranks after the 2009 season.

1998 – Saul Rivera was drafted in the 9th round as a RHP after 4 years of college and waived by the Twins in November 2001 and picked up by the Mets. Rivera debuted with the Nationals on May 25, 2006 in his ninth year of pro ball. Rivera pitched in a total of 249 big league games for the Nats and Diamondbacks between 2006-2010. Out of baseball today.

1998 – Juan Padilla was drafted in the 24th round as a RHP after 4 years of college and traded by the Twins to the Yankees as the PTBNL when the Twins acquired Jesse Orosco in September 2003. Padilla made his big league debut with the Yankees on July 16, 2004 in his seventh year of pro ball. Padilla appeared in 42 major league games between the Yankees, Reds and Mets.

Where do Twins players come from?

I mentioned earlier that the perception is that the Twins draft and groom the majority of their players. Let’s take a look at the players that most people today would consider the Twins top prospects. I will not include anyone here who has made his major league debut with the Twins and I will list the players in no particular order. Let’s take a look to see how the Twins acquired these up-and-coming stars. It just goes to show that the amateur free agent draft in June is not the only way to acquire talented young players.

3B – Miguel Sano – signed as an amateur free agent
OF – Byron Buxton – 1st round draft pick in 2012
P – Alex Meyer – acquired in a trade
P – Kyle Gibson – 1st round draft pick in 2009
P – Trevor May – acquired in a trade
2B – Eddie Rosario – 4th round draft pick in 2010
P – Jose Berrios – 1st round draft pick in 2012
OF – Max Kepler – signed as an amateur free agent in 2009
SS – Daniel Santana – signed as an amateur free agent in 2007

 

There are many ways to make up a 25 man major league roster, here is how the current 2013 Twins roster was assembled. On the position side, six players were drafted, four were signed as free agents, one was signed as an amateur free agent, one was acquired via a trade and one was picked up on the waiver wire. On the pitching side, four were signed as free agents, three were drafted, two joined the team via a trade, two were Rule 5 selections, and one was acquired via the waiver wire. The Twins line has always been that you grow the majority of your own players and you sign a few free agents to fill some holes. This years roster does not necessarily hold dear to that principal, maybe that is why the Twins will struggle to reach the .500 mark this season.

New draft strategy?

Maybe Terry Ryan and the Twins should change their draft strategy. All the so called draft experts out there are clamoring for the Twins to use their early picks on pitching help and don’t get me wrong, the Twins need good pitching. However; with the Twins poor history of drafting pitchers, maybe they should quit spending their high draft picks on pitchers and focus on drafting position players and then either put them in their line-up or trade them for proven pitching. You need to go with your organizations strength and the Twins scouts seem to find good hitting but pitching, not so much. Then you use Terry Ryan’s trading expertise to swap hitting for pitching. Then again, is the June amateur draft much different then the Powerball tickets I just bought? I spent my money knowing the odds were long but the carrot for the huge payoff was out there but this time I walked away empty handed. Fortunately, each of my Powerball tickets cost $2 and not several million dollars like a number 1 pick will probably cost the Twins. But you can bet your bippy I will try it again.

Can Twins bounce back in 2012? What does history tell us?

Our Minnesota Twins are coming off an atrocious 2011 where the team finished 63-99, a full 32 games behind the AL Central Division winning Detroit Tigers and in the process posting the second worst record in all of baseball. But 2011 is behind us now and we look forward to spring and a brand new season of baseball which hopefully will see the Twins back in winning form. In just a little over a month, Twins players from all over the globe will start to congregate in Ft. Myers, Florida to get into baseball shape which I think really means that they will get in a little stretching, jog a little, catch up on the off-season gossip and  start throwing the baseball around and take a few swings with those shiny new bats they just received during the off-season. When a bad season of baseball ends, there is always “next year” and that next year is just about upon us.

Long before baseball was played, back sometime between 1688-1744 the English poet Alexander Pope said “hope springs eternal in the human breast” and no truer words could be said about how baseball fans look at their favorite baseball teams. Forgotten are the numerous injuries, be they real or perceived, the dropped balls, the hitters that couldn’t run out a ground ball, the runners that had brain farts and stood there and watched as the hit and run unfolded in front of them, the fielders that couldn’t throw straight, the pitchers that keep hitting opponent bats, the perplexed pitching coach who wondered why his pitchers couldn’t find home plate even though it was always in the same spot, the manager who had to make up numerous line-ups each day because he didn’t know which of his players were in the mood to play that day, and of course the owner who was left to wonder what happened to his $113 million.

The injuries that plagued the team in 2011 are hopefully healed and with another year of experience under their belts, we all hope the Twins are back and playing baseball the way that Twins fans of today expect. We are not interested in seeing the Twins play ball as they did say between 1971-1986 when they never won more than 85 games and finished as high as second only once, we expect to see a winning team on the field or at least a team that is playing like they want to win versus the 2011 bunch that quit early and often.

So, what does history tell us will happen to the Twins in 2012? I want you to keep reading, but the bottom line is that while miracles can happen, it sure does not look good. The Twins were 31 games worse in 2011 than they were in 2010, 31 games, only once in franchise history had a Senators/Twins team played so much worse than they had the previous season and those were the Washington Senators of 1934 who finished the season 33 games worse with a 66-86 mark after advancing to the World Series in 1933 with a 99-53 record. The following season (1935) they won 67 games, one more than the year before.

So how have Senators and Twins teams bounced back from such dismal seasons? The best the Senators could ever do was improve by 27 games back between 1911-1912 and the best the Twins have done since 1961 is improve by 23 games as the 1965 Twins did when they won 102 games coming off a 79 win season in 1964.

But let’s look at more modern times so we will look at the seasons between 1997 and 2011 because it probably makes for a fairer comparison based on free agency and player movement of today. In the last 15 seasons here is what has happened in the AL Central Division.

The Kansas City Royals worst drop-off was in 2004 when the team finished 25 games worse than they did in 2003. The following season, 2005, the Royals finished 2 games worse. The best improvement that the Royals have shown their fans was when they finished 21 games better in 2003 than they had shown in 2002.

The Chicago White Sox worst drop-off was in 2007 when the team finished 18 games worse than they did in 2006. The following season, 2008, the mighty whitey’s finished 17 games better. The best improvement that the White Sox fans have seen was when they finished 20 games better in 2000 than they had shown in 1999.

The Cleveland Indians worst drop-off was in 2002 when the team finished 17 games worse than they did in 2001. The following season, 2003, the Indians finished 6 games worse. The best improvement that the Indians fans have seen was when they finished 18 games better in 2007 than they had shown in 2006.

The Detroit Tigers worst drop-off was 14 games and it happened twice, once between 1997 and 1998 and again from 2007 to 2008. The following season in 1999 the team improved by 4 games and in 2009 the team improved by 12 games. The best improvement that the Tigers have seen was when they finished 29 games better in 2004 (to a 72-90 season) than they had shown in 2003, but, 2003 was the season the Tigers put up a pathetic 43-119 record.

That brings us to the Twins, whose worst drop-off was 31 games in 2011 from their 2010 season. The biggest improvement the Twins have shown during this 15 year period was in 2001 (TK’s last season as manager) when they finished 16 games better than what they showed us in 2000. In the past 15 years the Twins have improved their record from the previous season 8 times for an average improvement in games won over the previous season of 8 games. On the minus side their record has gotten worse from the previous season 7 times for an average of -11.29 but that is obviously skewed by the big -31 of 2011. If the 2012 Twins could match their biggest improvement of say 16 games as they did in 2001, that still only moves the Twins 2012 record up to 79-83. The Twins have to improve by 18 games just to reach the .500 mark and would have to improve by 27 games to reach the 90 win mark. It does not look promising.

The Twins have improved their previous years mark by 18 games or better on 4 occassions. The feat was accomplished by the 1991 team that improved by 21 games, the 1969 team that improved by 18 games, the 1965 team that improved by 23 games and the 1962 team that was 21 games better than the 1961 team. Four times in 50 seasons, not good odds for sure and remember, an 18 game improvement only takes the team to an 81-81 record, or .500 baseball. The team has lost Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey and a number of bit players but then again, they lost 99 games when they had these guys. I know they added Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and brought back Matt Capps but how many wins will these guys put in the “W” column?

What this team needs in order to play respectable baseball is for Joe Mauer to step back to earth from the “Twilight Zone” that he was in most of last year and catch 130 games and play 1B and DH for 10-15 more. I see no reason why this can’t happen, Mauer should come out of the gate madder than hell and show everyone that 2011 was a fluke. I will believe that when I see it. The next issue is Justin Morneau, here I am not nearly as optimistic. Justin was just a shell of himself in 2011 and I worry that Justin Morneau’s baseball career is coming to a premature end. That would be so sad as Justin should have many more years in him as a productive Twins first baseman. I hope I am totally wrong about Morneau, but if I was a betting man I would say “show me you still got it” Justin. I hope that Danny Valencia thought long and hard about his baseball career since the 2011 season ended because if he continues to play in 2012 like he did in 2011, he will be receiving his fan mail in Rochester come the middle of May. Valencia might not be the .311 hitter he was in 2010 but he sure better not be the .246 hitter he was in 2011 either. A little more work with the glove wouldn’t hurt Danny either. The Twins outfield is a mess, Willingham is a left fielder and the Twins need him to play right because Ben Revere can’t throw out his grandmother. So that forces the team to play Revere in center which is OK in itself but that means you need to move Span to right field but Span says he wants to play center. In my humble opinion, any outfield with Revere and Span both playing at the same time is a bad thing. I am not sure how things are going to shake out but come the second half of 2012, Joe Benson will be playing in the Twins outfield some where. The Twins signed Jamey Carroll to play short but the man has never had a full-time job in 10 big league seasons and he will be 38 before the Twins open the exhibition season. Is that a move that a contending team makes? We can hope that Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes back to life and show us that he really is a professional baseball player……come on, really, there is a chance. Alexi Casilla at 2B is an enigma but I still have hope for this 27-year-old with parts of six big league season under his belt. The bullpen is a couple of sharp knives short of a complete set and the starting staff of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, and Jason Marquis would make any manager nervous.

So here it is, you make up your mind, can the Twins compete or will they have to fight and scratch like hell just to reach the .500 mark? Me? Come October, I think we should all be dancing on Target Plaza celebrating manager Ron Gardenhire’s second manager of the year award with a cold drink in our hand if this collection of Twins can win half of their games in 2012. However; if this this team wins 70 or fewer games in 2012, manager Ron Gardenhire may be looking for a job.

Slowey sent packing

The Twins have traded right-handed pitcher Kevin Slowey to the Colorado Rockies for a player to be named later. The 27-year-old Slowey was a Twins second round pick in 2005 and made his major league debut in Oakland against the A’s on June 1, 2007 in a no decision start.

Slowey has been with the Twins for 5 years and has appeared in 100 games, 90 of them starts and he has a career mark of 39-29 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Slowey has had good control as shown by his 84 bases on ball in 532 innings but he has also given up 84 long balls. Durability however; is not Slowey’s long suit as evidenced by his five trips to the DL in five years and he has never thrown as many as 161 innings in any big league season.

In the spring of 2011 Slowey lost out in the battle for the starting rotation and the Twins moved him to the bullpen. Between April 1st and May 20th Slowey appeared in relief 6 times and had a 4.91 ERA. Slowey complained publicly that he was not suited for the bullpen and that his arm hurt and the Twins sent him out to rehab and then farmed him out to Rochester. Slowey was recalled later in the season and made 8 starts for the Twins and was the losing pitcher each time, giving up 36 runs in 45.2 innings.

But is wasn’t his poor pitching that sent Slowey packing, it was his attitude. The word was that Slowey had a reputation as a “club house lawyer” and that he was convinced that he knew the best way to pitch which did not endear him either to pitching coach Rick Anderson or manager Gardenhire. I don’t know if these reports are true or not but I can tell you that Kevin Slowey was very standoffish whenever I saw him during the past few years during spring training visits and he certainly did not go out of his way to interact with Twins fans.

I think that Terry Ryan was smart this month in saying publicly that Slowey was in his starting rotation plans for 2012 regardless if that was true or not. Personally I think that Slowey had burned too many bridges and Ryan was just trying to get as much as he could for Slowey. I sure would have liked the Twins to do better than a PTBNL for trading Slowey to the Rockies who had also expressed interest in Slowey last summer at the trade deadline. At least the Twins will get something versus just non-tendering him. The rumor has it that the Rockies are looking to move 3B/2B Ian Stewart who has been a disappointment in Colorado and that they were looking to get a couple of minor league pitchers in return. You would think the Twins would have very little to lose to have swung a deal that included Slowey for the 26-year-old left-handed hitting Stewart with good pop in his bat even if the Twins had to kick in something to sweeten the pot. It will be interesting to see what Slowey can do in the National league in Colorado.

UPDATE December 9 – The Twins announced yesterday that they have acquired right-handed pitcher Daniel Turpen from the Rockies as the player to be named later in the Kevin Slowey trade.

The Twins and the Disabled List (DL)

The Twins had a miserable season in 2011 and many blame the Twins slide into the AL central basement on the number of injuries that the Twins endured. But looking at the numbers, injuries alone do not explain the Twins dismal play. The Twins came out of spring training in excellent health but it didn’t take long before players started dropping. It was like a contagious disease all season long, one injury after another. How do you explain it? No one can I think, just a matter of bad luck, sometimes, maybe it was brought on by not knowing how to play your position properly as in the case of Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Later in the season, after the Twins were beaten down and out of the race it seemed like some players just gave up and found it easier to sit on the bench than to get out on the field. The Joe Mauer mystery still remains unanswered. It appears to me that the Twins have several players that do not want to go to the gate unless they are feeling 100%, hell, no one feels 100% everyday. In the real world there are people going to work day in and day out regardless of how they feel for a whole slew of reasons. These players need to understand that they are letting their teammates, fans, and themselves down when they let a minor injury keep them from taking the field. I felt bad for Gardy because he had to make excuses for these malingerers. I wonder what it will take to get some of these guys to “suck it up” and play some baseball? But you think the 2011 Twins had injury problems, check out some of these sad but apparently true injuries that occurred to the boys of summer in a piece that was published back in September of 1992. You may find some former Twins on the list.

So what is the MLB DL and how does it work? In simple terms it works like this. A player may be placed on either the 15-day or the 60-day disabled list, usually depending on the severity or the expected recovery time of the injury. A player may be shifted from the 15-day to the 60-day DL at any time, but not vice-versa. The player may not rejoin the team until 15 or 60 days has elapsed; however, a player’s time on the DL may exceed the specified number of days. Something the Twins know very well. In addition, if a player is sent to the 60-day DL after August 1, he may not return to the active roster for the rest of that season.

The 15-day DL does not count the player on the active roster (comprising the 25-man roster until September 1), whereas the 60-day DL does not require the player to be counted on either the team’s active roster or its 40-man roster; however, a team’s 40-man roster must be full in order for the option of a placement on the 60-day disabled list to be available.

In 2011 MLB instituted a change to the DL policy where as a new 7 day DL was put in place specifically for concussions and brain damage. MLB also put in place a paternity leave policy this season where a team can replace a player who is an expectant father on the roster for 1-3 days in order for them to attend the birth of their child.

Until the late 1980s, there were 10-day and 21-day disabled lists. The number of players who could be placed on each list was limited, and there was much less flexibility about when they could return to action. Back then, players with major league contracts were not allowed to go to the minor leagues for rehabilitation.

But getting back to the Twins situation, I took a look at the Twins injuries for the last 10 seasons 2002-2011 and here is what I found.

Year Record Finish DL Moves DL Days Out for the season
2002 94-67 1st 14 700 Duvall (P)
2003 90-72 1st 10 430 none
2004 92-70 1st 14 593 Mays (P)
2005 83-79 3rd 11 578 Kubel (OF), Balfour (P)
2006 96-66 1st 10 403 none
2007 79-83 3rd 15 995* Liriano (P), Machado (P)
2008 88-75 2nd 11 487 none
2009 87-76 1st 12 551 Bonser (P), Neshek (P)
2010 94-68 1st 18 760 Condrey (P), Nathan (P)
2011 63-99 5th 27 785 none

 * = In addition to Liriano and Machado being out for the season, Perkins, Crain, White, and Rabe all spent 95 or more days on the DL

The table above seems to indicate that the Twins usually average between 10-15 DL moves in a season but the last two seasons have seen a jump in the number of DL moves to 18 and 27 respectively.

From a trainers perspective, like the rest of the Twins organization, changes are few and far between. Up until 2011, the Twins had a head trainer, an assistant trainer and a strength and conditioning coach but in 2011 they added a second assistant trainer.

2002 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2003 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2004 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2005 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2006 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2007 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2008 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2009 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2010 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2011 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Tony Leo (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)

 

Popple and Castellano each have served as strength and conditioning coach for 5 years. When Popple was the SCC, the Twins averaged 541 DL days per season, during the last 5 years under Castellano, the Twins have averaged 716 DL days. coincidence? Maybe. Of course you can’t compare apples to apples here because the players change but still, 175 DL days difference.

We all have an opinion on what Twins we think are always hurt and always on the DL but the table below will show you over the last 10 years who has been on the DL most frequently. The table covers the years of 2002 through 2011 and players that have two or fewer DL trips are not listed.

Player DL appearances Season with the Twins
Nick Punto 9 7
Joe Mauer 6 8
Francisco Liriano 5 7
Kevin Slowey 5 5
Scott Baker 4 7
Alexi Casilla 4 6
Michael Cuddyer 4 11
Justin Morneau 4 9
Glenn Perkins 4 6
Grant Balfour 3 4
Lew Ford 3 5
Torii Hunter 3 11
Corey Koskie 3 7
Jose Mijares 3 4
Pat Neshek 3 5
Luis Rivas 3 6
Shannon Stewart 3 4
Rondell White 3 2

Nathan‘s option declined

 

Joe Nathan

October 25, 2011 – The Twins announced this afternoon that they have declined closer Joe Nathan’s $12.5 million club option for 2012 and instead will instead exercise a $2 million buyout which makes Nathan a free agent. GM Smith has indicated to Nathan, who be 37 on November 22nd and his agent that the Twins would like to resign the 37 year reliever but at a lesser price tag.

Nathan has been with the Minnesota Twins since 2004 and is the Twins all-time saves leader with 260 passing previous leader Rick Aguilera (254 saves) this past season.

It will be interesting to see if the Twins can resign Nathan this off season and if so, how much will it cost. But before I try to resign Joe Nathan, I go back to the Washington Nationals and try to swing a deal for closer Drew Storen and shortstop Ian Desmond and I give up Ben Revere, Kevin Slowey and a minor league prospect. If the Nats don’t want Revere but want Denard Span instead, I still do the deal without the minor league prospect. Nathan has obviously been a great closer but he is coming off a serious injury and he will be 37 years old before next season begins. How much is he worth to a team that lost 99 games in 2011 and has many holes to fill? In my opinion I don’t sign him to more than two years and I offer him $14 million for those two years. If Nathan feels that is not enough, I let him walk and I look for a closer.

Not much going on at the ballpark today

March 9, 2011 – Today’s visit to Hammond Stadium was pretty boring. The Twins had an away game against the Orioles and they lost their third game in a row and today it wasn’t even close as the Orioles blew them out 11-2. Francisco Liriano started and lasted just 1 2/3 innings against many Baltimore regulars while giving up 6 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks and getting one strike-out. Granted Liriano got a slow start this year but he looks like he forgot how to pitch since last fall. You have to wonder if he is hiding some injury and is headed for the DL in the near future.

On the bright side, Justin Morneau did not go to Sarasota and I watched him hit a couple of very nice pokes that would have been home runs most everywhere. He looked comfortable and was talking and joking with teammates. Nishioka, Thome, and Young all were in the group taking BP with Morneau under the watchful eye of Rod Carew. It is not as much fun going to watch practice right now as the Twins have tighter security which limits access to some of the practice fields. The minor leaguers still have not officially reported but a number of them are out there on the back fields anyway. I think the minor leaguers are due to report Thursday or Friday and then the action will pick up a bit more.

Some thoughts on what I have seen so far? Jim Hoey better pick it up soon or he won’t make the Twins bullpen and the Hardy deal will look even worse. Scott Diamond just walks too many batters and is slower than molasses on the mound. David Bromberg has been unimpressive and Jeff Manship needs to turn things around quick or he is Rochester bound. Eric Hacker who Bill Smith really likes has pitched 3 innings and given up 8 runs on 9 hits and a walk. Pavano, Blackburn and Duensing have all looked sharp and Baker and Slowey are OK. Luke Hughes is hitting the cover off the ball going 9 for 24 with 3 HR’s and 8 RBI’s. No other Twins player has more than one HR, matter of fact, the rest of the Twins hitters have a total of 3 home runs.

Slowey throws 7 no-hit innings

August 16, 2010 – It was an interesting afternoon at Target Field today as I watched the Twins beat the Oakland A’s 4-2 yesterday and in the process sweep the A’s and extend their winning streak to four. The Twins took a 1-0 lead in the third when Kubel hit a ground rule double with two runners on base and had the ball stayed in play the Twins would have scored a second run.

But it wasn’t long before I looked at the scoreboard to verify what I was thinking, Slowey still had not given up a hit and he was looking pretty sharp. Couple that with some nice fielding plays behind him, like the leaping grab Repko made in left in the top of the 6th inning and things were going well for Slowey and the Twins. As the game progressed into the 6th and 7th inning Slowey started to labor a bit but he still had a no hitter on the board after 7 innings and the Twins were still leading 1-0. In the bottom of the 7th Jim Thome hit a 3-run home run, a rocket shot to right field and suddenly the Twins were up 4-0.

Would Slowey come out to pitch in the 8th inning? At this point he had walked 3 A’s, hit one, and another A’s batter reached base on a throwing error by shortstop Casilla. His pitch count was sitting at 106 which is usually the end of the line for a Twins starter in recent years. I’m wondering if Gardy pulls him in the middle of a no-hitter. Jon Rauch was warming up. Slowey had skipped his last start on Wednesday due to a tender elbow. All signs pointed to Slowey not coming out to pitch in the 8th but still in the back of my mind I hoped he would. Then the bullpen gate opened and Rauch was headed for the mound. I did what my heart told me to do, I gave Gardy and Rauch a resounding boo! Then with one out Rauch gave up back-to-back doubles and the no-hitter and the shutout were gone. I gave Rauch a couple more boos for good measure.

I understood the situation, but I wanted to see a no-hitter, having never witnessed one in person I wanted to cross that off my bucket list but it was not to be today. As I sat on the bus that was taking me back to the Cty Road 73 Park & Ride I thought about what had transpired and I realized that I had nothing to be upset about. Long term this is probably the best thing for Slowey’s health but…….. this was a shot at a once in a life time event for most pitchers. Looking at it from Gardy’s perspective, it was a no-win situation but he took a tough stand and made the hard decision, you have to give the man credit for that. Like I said, it was a fun and interesting day at the old ballpark today and things like this are what make baseball the game it is.

Lots of smoke but no fire

GM Bill Smith
GM Bill Smith

As the July 31 trade deadline approached, the Twins seemed to be in the middle of a number of possible trade discussions with players such as Kevin Slowey, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Jose Mijares, Delmon Young, and Jim Thome all supposedly in the mix to change uniforms. But the Twins and GM Bill Smith found themselves between a rock and a hard-spot on what to do with a team that seems to have hit a plateau at 6 games out after coming out of the chute like a herd of turtles and found themselves 20 games under .500 on June 1st. According to a recent clip I saw on TV, no team in MLB history that has been 20 games under has ever come back to finish above the .500 mark. But on the other hand, no one in the Central Division seems to want to take the lead and run with it. The Kansas City Royals started the season hot as a pistol but soon tanked and found themselves rebuilding with some young and up and coming stars. The Chicago White Sox can’t seem to get their act together and struggle to hang around the .500 mark. The surprising Cleveland Indians are probably in over their heads but have been putting up a good fight but they have too many injuries to key players and are too young to be taken too seriously. The Detroit Tigers are leading the pack right now and as I see it, will win the division just because they are the best team in a bad division in 2011.

But getting back to Minnesota, what was Smith to do? I can see no way that with the way the Jekyll and Hyde Twins have played this season that ownership would authorize the payroll to increase by any substantial amount. So if Smith wanted to make some additions to say the relief core, he would also have to move some payroll to free up some dollars. On the other hand, the Twins could have become sellers and started a rebuilding process but the fans in Twins Territory would have gone “nuts” if the Twins threw up the white flag while being only six games out on July 31. The Twins sell out almost every home game and giving up just does not seem like the right thing to do even though the chances of this team winning the division are slim and none. So what should be done?

The solution as it turns out was relatively simple, the answer was to be neither a buyer nor a seller and just let things continue the way they are for the time being. All Smith had to do is keep saying no to any deal that was not stacked in favor of the home team and the only deal he would make would be on where the Twins came out smelling like a rose. Like the deal that was much ballyhooed where the Twins would send Span to Washington and hopefully get closer Drew Storen, outfielder Roger Bernadina, and 2B Steve Lombardozzi. But Washington did not want to part with Storen and Smith passed on Troy Clippard. If a miracle happens and the Twins catch fire, just play it out and hope for the best. If the Twins tank, there is always the waiver wire or just let the season come to a merciful end and deal with your potential free agent fallout. Besides, this team can’t be this bad again next year, the team was snake bit with injuries in 2011 and what are the odds of it happening again? But the Twins do have holes and a bit of a tune-up with some new parts just might make this sputtering 4 cylinder engine come to life again as the V-8 that all of us Twins fans expected in 2011.

GM Bill Smith isn’t as dumb as some make him out to be, he went from being in an impossible situation of deciding between buying and selling to finding himself in the position of being right no matter where the Twins finish in the standings. If the Twins don’t win the division and finish third or fourth, he was right not to be a buyer, why waste the money. If the Twins make a serious run but still lose, he can take the position that we did not need to make any moves, we just needed our players to get healthy and start playing the way they are capable of playing and it is a good thing that he wasn’t a seller or the Twins would not have made this great come-back.

But Mr. Smith is not totally off the hook here. Sure the Twins had their run of injuries, but their play in 2011 is not all about injuries. There are questions that need to be asked. Is Nishioka really as bad as he has played in 2011? How do the Twins avoid a repeat of the 2011 bullpen woes? Is the Twins starting staff going to take a step forward or is it time to blow it up? What does he do about Cuddyer and Kubel as they enter free agency?

What would I have done if I had been in Smith’s shoes? I would have done pretty much what Smith did, nothing, but I am working at a disadvantage here, I don’t know what the other teams offered for Kubel or Cuddyer. For sure I would have sent Thome packing; he is just wasting a roster spot as the Twins wait for him to hit home run number 600. I assume they were offered next to nothing for Slowey or he would be gone by now, but now that Blackburn has pitched so poorly of late, maybe it is time to give Slowey a shot at Blackie’s spot?