Tag: Justin Morneau

How they will finish in 2012

 

Mr. Einstein

With the 2012 baseball season just around the corner, if you don’t count that stupid two game series that the A’s and Mariners played and split in Japan, it is time for us here in Twins Trivia to look into the crystal ball and see what is in store for us this season. They say that baseball is a simple game, all you need to do is hit the ball, pitch the ball and pick-up the ball but I thought I would run it by Mr. Einstein just to be sure.

East

 1. Tampa Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
 

West

1. Los Angeles Angels 
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A’s
 

Central

1. Detroit Tigers (91-71)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80)
3. Minnesota Twins (78-84)
4. Kansas City Royals (76-86)
5. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
 

The Detroit Tigers are far and way the best team in the division and should be up by 10 games at the All-Star break and have a cake walk the rest of the way. However; having picked the Tigers to win the AL Central, the team is certainly not without its problems. The Tigers defense if they continue to pursue going down the Miguel Cabrera at 3B path will be atrocious but I see manager Jim Leyland changing that plan before he gets out of April. But even after Leyland addresses the 3B situation, the Bengals still have defense problems at 1B, 2B, SS, and LF. It will be fun to watch the Tigers hit but when they are in the field it will be a totally different story. The Tiger bullpen is solid although there is no way in the world that closer Jose Valverde has another year in 2012 like he had in 2011. The Tigers other major issue is starting pitching where they have a reigning Cy Young award winner in Justin Verlander followed by Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and the Tigers just announced that Drew Smyly won the last starting spot.  Who is Drew Smyly? Fister, and Scherzer are workable starters on a pennant contender but Porcello and who ever the Tigers have slotted for number 5 will not cut the mustard and the Tigers are going to have to make some moves to fill those holes.

The Cleveland Indians continue to improve albeit very slowly and the team has worked hard to try to improve its starting rotation that includes Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jiminez, Derek Lowe, Jeanmar Gomez, and Josh Tomlin. Twins cast-off Kevin Slowey could not make this starting rotation. Not a great starting rotation, but I have seen a lot worse. The Indians offense lost Gardy Sizemore to injury once again but Sizemore’s best days are now behind him anyway so that is not as great a loss as some may think. On offense the Indians need outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to bounce back after an injury plagued 2011, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to continue to show improvement after a breakout season last year, 2B Jason Kipnis to show that he is for real, Michael Brantley needs to prove he is a legit lead-off hitter, Lonnie Chisenhall to hit to his potential and to earn his way back as the Indians starting 3B, and for 35-year-old Travis Hafner to stay healthy and hit like he can as the teams DH.

I like the Kansas City Royals a lot because of the nice young players they have like Eric Hosmer at 1B, former 3B and now outfielder Alex Gordon, Billy Butler as the DH, Alcides Escobar at SS, and 3B Mike Moustakas. The Royals took a serious blow to the gut when closer Jokaim Soria went down with an elbow issue and will require TJ surgery but maybe the Royals dodged a bullet if free agent signee Jonathan Broxton can bounce back and become a workable closer once again, a long shot to be sure but still, a chance. The Royals starting pitching is what really needs to take a step forward if this team is to become a contender. Luke Hochevar anchors the rotation but he still young and is slowly improving. Jonathan Sanchez who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants has some potential and could become their number 2 starter. Veteran Bruce Chen continues to get his 10-12 wins each year although I don’t know how and Felipe Paulino slides in as the fourth starter although he could miss the first part of the season. Paulino has control issues but he can also strikeout some hitters. The fifth spot is open and the Royals would like to see youngster Danny Duffy lock up that spot. The Royals need to find a way to improve their starting pitching before they can be considered a serious challenger.

I pick the Chicago White Sox to finish in the Central Division basement. The mighty whities are a high-priced team that has under performed and is old to boot. White Sox GM Ken Williams has shown over the last few years that he doesn’t have a clue on how to be a big league general manager and the sooner he is fired the sooner the White Sox can once again can become a contender. The White Sox let Ozzie Guillen go as manager and hired the totally inexperienced former 3B Robin Ventura to manage this motley crew. The Sox have some proven starting pitching in John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jake Peavy but Peavy is always hurt and you can’t count on him to be a solid contributor. Former Twins pitcher Philip Humber was a pleasant surprise for the Sox last season but he remains unproven. The Sox have moved the young fireballing Chris Sale out of the pen and into a starters role so his transition will be closely watched. Since the whities traded their closer Sergio Santos to Toronto during the off-season they are in need of a closer and it appears that Matt Thornton will start the season in that role but indications are that Addison Reed will take over the closers role before the 2012 season comes to a merciful end for the Chicago White Sox.

That bring us to the Minnesota Twins who unfortunately will finish third in this weak AL Central with a 78-84 record. 78 wins does not sound like much but it is a nice 15 win improvement after last years dismal showing. The Twins fired GM Bill Smith and put former GM Terry Ryan back in the driver’s seat but Ryan is driving a Chevy and Twins management is selling it as a BMW and this past off-season instead of going into a rebuilding mode after losing Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and several others, the team decided to try to plug some leaks, drop their payroll by $15 million and see if they can regain their 2010 form. They signed 38 career utility player Jamey Carroll to be their starting shortstop, they signed Josh Willingham to provide some power as a corner outfielder and catcher Ryan Doumit to provide some pop as the back-up catcher. Last season catcher Joe Mauer had a horrible season hitting .287 and playing in just 82 games due to some mysterious injuries that still have not been explained but Mauer has worked hard this spring and you have to think he is back to being the All-Star catcher he should be. 1B Justin Morneau was even worse, hitting .227 with four home runs and playing in 69 games due to a variety of injuries but his major issue was the concussion he suffered in Toronto the previous season. Morneau started spring training playing 1B but midway through spring training he was hitting under .100 and the team decided that Morneau would be the primary DH this season although he would still see time at 1B but I would expect him playing first base less than 30 times this season. Morneau caught fire with his bat but still seldom makes an appearance at 1B in Florida. The Twins need Morneau to hit like he can and to stay healthy but that might be asking a lot based on what Justin has shown the past few years. The second baseman, often injured Alexi Casilla is in a make it or break it season and he has to prove he can play 150+ games, something he has never done. He has already missing games in spring training due to a sore knee. The leader of the Twins “fun bunch” is 3B Danny Valencia who is coming off a “sophomore slump” season in 2011 both with his bat and in the field. Valencia has to start to field at 3B like he cares and to hit more for average versus trying to be that dead pull hitter that he showed in 2011. A little humility by Valencia wouldn’t hurt either, Danny is not God’s gift to baseball even though he seems to think he is. Denard Span has to prove that he is over his own concussion and neck woes and that the Twins can count on him to play day in and day out in centerfield because he has a lot of ground to cover when Willingham is in left and Trevor Plouffe or Ryan Doumit is playing in right. Right field is probably a platoon between Plouffe, Doumit and maybe even Ben Revere who has a throwing arm like a pop gun. The Twins starting pitching is shaky at best and that is kind of funny because going back just a few years the Twins thought their starting pitching was a strength and some bloggers thought we had too much starting pitching but that was just before Kyle Gibson was deemed to need TJ surgery and Alex Wimmers had no clue where home plate was. Francisco Liriano has had a super spring and he is in his contract year but no Twins starter has shown as much “Jekyll and Hyde” personality as Francisco has. One day the man pitches a no-hitter and the next time out he can’t string two good innings together. Scott Baker can be really good but you can also count on Scott Baker to hit the DL at least once each season and this year he will start the season on the DL. I find Baker an interesting pitcher because he makes his living pitching high in the strike zone. What drives me crazy with Baker is that the man never shows any emotion. Get mad, slam your glove down, anything, just show me you are alive Scott. Carl Pavano is one of those guys that goes out and throws 200 innings and gives up 2225 hits but keeps his team in the game. This coming from a guy that had a huge contract with the Yankees between 2005-2008 and was hurt year after year while pitching in just 26 games. Nick Blackburn owns the Twins number 4 starting spot and the sinkerballing right hander is starting his fifth season in the Twins starting rotation. Blackburn, a pitch to contact guy has started at least 26 games each season although his innings pitched have decreased the last two years from a career high of 205 in 2009. Blackburn is one of those guys that gives hitters a comfortable collar but then there are other games when he gives up hit after hit. Blackburn has pitched a few big games for the Twins and has seems to rise to the occasion. The last spot in the starting rotation belongs to newly acquired Jason Marquis a 33-year-old right hander beginning his 13 big league season and is a lot like Pavano, gives up a lot of hits but keeps his team deep into games. Not a stellar rotation by any means but when they pitch well, the Twins have a chance as Gardy might tell you. How about the relievers? Who knows, the Twins resigned Matt Capps to be their closer after Joe Nathan hit the trail for Texas. Capps is not one of the elite closers in the league but does a team that is destined to finish under .500 need an elite closer? I don’t think so and I think Capps can be a good character on this team. Minnesota native lefty Glen Perkins had a breakout season both on the pitching front and out of Gardy’s doghouse. Perkins was outstanding last season and was the Twins best pitcher most of the year. Brian Duensing moves to the bullpen after a disappointing year in the starting rotation in 2011 and he should do a good job there based on what he has shown there previously. Matt Maloney and Jared Burton, both former Redlegs appear to have earned bullpen jobs. Anthony Swarzak is the long guy in the pen and sometimes starter and that role seems to fit him well. The final bullpen spot is still to be determined with Jeff Gray and Alex Burnett still battling it out as spring training winds down. Kyle Waldrop was in the running for the final spot too but he ended up taking a spot on the DL bench.

Ryan did what he could to get more offense on the field but in the process he sacrificed his defense, particularly in the outfield. The fact that the Twins will not have Justin Morneau at 1B will also hurt the other infielders who are used to having Morneau scoop their bad throws out of the dirt. The Twins have numerous holes but they do have some young players that are knocking on the door like Chris Parmelee at 1B, Brian Dozier at SS, Joe Benson in the outfield, Liam Hendriks as a starter and Carlos Gutierrez in the pen. It is starting pitching that the Twins crave but outside of Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers, their does not appear to be a lot there. If the youngsters do indeed turn out to be big leaguers, Ryan will have a core to build on. Deeper in the minors they have some players that could turn out to be stars in a few years. We as fans sometimes fall in love with our teams players and hate to see them go but baseball is like life, you have to keep moving forward and change is necessary, if you stand still,  it means that someone is gaining on you. Change is good, we need to embrace change. Going into 2011 Gardy and Smith talked about the need to add speed, no one talks about speed this year….. I wrote all this and didn’t mention Tsuyoshi Nishioka until just now, see how easy it is to forget?

When the smoke clears, Twins fans should be dancing on Target Plaza if this team can somehow play .500 ball, I unfortunately don’t see it happening in 2012. I just hope that the Twins play some exciting baseball the way it should be played and hopefully fans will still keep coming to Target Field to watch them.

Division winners – Rays, Tigers, Angels

Wild Cards – Yankees, Rangers

Tampa Rays move on to represent the American League in the World Series

Twins Trivia 25 man roster

With the 2012 season less than two weeks away it is still very difficult to predict to will be on the Twins 25 man roster when the Twins take on the Orioles in Baltimore on April 6th. That is not normal for the Twins of recent years but when you lose a few veterans to free agency and the team is coming off a 63-99 record you should not be surprised that there are questions everywhere. I do think the Twins will make a trade or two before the season opens and who knows who might suffer an injury that could change everything. An injury could dramatically change the starting line-up and who makes the 25 man roster on opening day. Here is how I see the team starting the season, I don’t think it will stay that way for long but here is how I see the Twins coming out of the starting gate.

Catcher – The starting catcher will obviously be Joe Mauer who hopefully can catch 120-130 games and play some first base and DH. His primary back-up will be Ryan Doumit. I think the Twins need to carry a 3rd catcher because Mauer and Doumit are both injury prone and will play other positions. I would not be surprised to see all three of their catchers playing in the same game now and then. The Twins third catcher this year will be J.R Towles (an easy addition to the 40 man roster) because the Twins will trade Drew Butera before the season starts to a team that needs a back-up catcher. The Twins are loyal to a fault sometimes and since they have no room in the majors for Butera, they will try to find him a big league job somewhere. Josh Willingham was a catcher earlier in his career so he could be an emergency back stop for Gardy too.

1B – The Twins black hole, the huge unknown. Justin Morneau should be here but I’m afraid we won’t be seeing a lot of Justin at 1B. If Morneau could regain his health, play 1B and even be 90% of what he was in the past, this Twins team would be dramatically better and the team make-up would be much different. The Twins primary first baseman for now and the forseeable future is Chris Parmelee but you will also see Mauer here and Doumit will also show up at first for  a few games and even Luke Hughes can play here if needed.

2B – Belongs to Alexi Casilla but Alexi has played over 100 games in a season only once and that was back in 2006 in the minors. The switch hitting Casilla could really provide a big lift to the team if he can stay healthy and play 150+ games but I think we can count on Alexi taking a mini vacation on the DL this year too. Casilla is a streaky hitter but he has provided some key hits for the Twins over the years. Terry Ryan has always been a Casilla fan but I think he is looking at this year as a “make it or break it season” for Alexi, he either proves he can do it this year or he is history. The back-up second baseman is Luke Hughes but Jamey Carroll can play second too. In an emergency Trevor Plouffe can also play there.

SS – Free agent acquisition Jamey Carroll will start the season at short but I don’t see him holding on to this role for long. Carroll has had over 400 at bats only twice in ten big league seasons, why should things change at 38 years of age? I think by mid June we will see the Brian Dozier shortstop era begin and Carroll who was signed for two years will become the utility player the Twins are looking for, albeit a bit on the expensive side. Casilla will play some short in a back-up role and if the Twins are really in dire straights, they can slip Hughes or Plouffe over there for a game or two.

3B – Should belong to Danny Valencia but he needs to prove he is a big leaguer. Last year was a real downer for Valencia both in the field and at the bat. Hopefully Valencia gets his head screwed on straight and starts playing like he can. Valencia is not the .311 hitter he showed us in 2010 but he is also not the .246 hitter he forced us to watch in 2011 either. Danny needs to adjust his attitude too, he is not a super star so he had better quit acting like one because Minnesota fans will not tolerate it. Hughes is Valencia’s back-up but Carroll and Casilla could play third in a pinch too. In the unlikely event that Valencia is really the 2011 version, hopefully Sean Burroughs is still with the Twins and can be called up. Burroughs can hit, although not with a lot of power and I see him as the last player cut and the Twins 26th man.

LF – Will be manned by Josh Willingham just like I said all along since the Twins signed him. Gardy announced that Willingham is his left fielder after trying Willingham in right all spring. It will be interesting to see how Twins fans react to Willingham as the Twins have not had a hitter like Willingham in some time. Josh did hit a career high 29 home runs in Oakland last season but he also struck out 150 times and had a .246 average. Willingham was a catcher earlier in his career so speed is not his game and he is 33 years old and now there are reports that his arm is not as good as the Twins may have thought. Back-ups here would be Ben Revere, Denard Span, and Trevor Plouffe.

CF – Will be patrolled by Denard Span. The fly in the ointment here would be if Span is not totally recovered from his neck pain or his concussion from last season. Span needs to stay healthy, hit at least .285 steal 25 bases and score about 100 runs if he wants to meet Twins expectations of him in the lead-off spot. The only other outfielder the Twins have to play center is the speedy Ben Revere and he can cover center but his hitting is not all it could be and he throws like a grandmother. The Twins say that Span’s throwing is improved but you can’t make silk from a pigs ear. With Willingham in LF and who ever plays RF be it Doumit, Plouffe, Parmelee, Span and or Revere will have to cover a lot of ground in center because they are the only two outfielders with any speed what so ever.

RF – I think you will see a number of players out here but I think that Ryan Doumit and Trevor Plouffe will get the majority of the time in right. But who ever the Twins put in right other that Span or Revere has to be considered a defensive liability. I think Twins fans will be shocked at how many balls don’t get caught in left and right this season. Who ever plays right might just be keeping the position warm for when Joe Benson gets called up later this season. Benson’s call-up may even move Span to RF.

Bench – Luke Hughes is out of options and is a nice hitter to have coming off the bench. Luke can play all four infield positions, just not well enough to be a starter in any of them. The second bench player is catcher  J.R. Towles who I think beats out Drew Butera. I know that Towles is a .187 hitter as compared to Butera’s .178 but Towles at least has a chance to be a better hitter, I don’t think Butera does. Towles is a good catcher too and earlier this spring I saw him playing 3B and he wasn’t too shabby for a catcher. Butera gets traded. The third member of the Twins bench is Trevor Plouffe the former SS/2B and now an outfielder. Plouffe has some pop in his bat and hopefully he can learn to play the outfield just as Michael Cuddyer did many years earlier and he can still play 2B/SS  if things get hinky for Gardenhire. Ben Revere has my final bench spot simply because the Twins need someone like him to take over in LF or RF late in the game when the Twins have a lead or to come off the bench as a pinch-runner to steal a base.

SP – Is all locked up assuming there are no injuries. Francisco Liriano coming off his best spring ever is pitching like his Twins career depends on it and it is about time. I am not going to get too excited  just yet with Francisco because I know how quickly things can fall apart for him. What a treat it would be if Liriano finally pitched like the ace many predicted he would be. Having said that, if someone offers me an arm and a leg with potential, I trade Francisco so fast it would make your head spin. Scott Baker has the potential to be a very good pitcher but he has hit the 200 inning mark just once in his seven-year career but he is only 30. What frustrates me about Baker is that when he gets some runners on base he turns the game into slo-mo. One more thing, Scott never shows any emotion, some would say that is a good thing, I would say hogwash, I have no problem when a pitcher comes into the dugout after giving up a couple of runs and slams his glove to the bench, show me your care Scott Baker! Baker is like Camilo Pascual in that he likes to take a summer break to the DL list once a year or so, count on it. Carl Pavano is not a great pitcher but he is one of those inning eaters who wants to win. Pavano can pitch on my team any time. Nick Blackburn is my number 4 SP, but I gotta say I don’t understand him at all. Blackie is a sinkerballer who has some great games and others that he just stinks, you just don’t know who you are going to get on any given day. When Nick is healthy, he can throw some innings. The fifth starter is the newest addition, Jason Marquis. I think you will find Marquis to be Pavano like except he gives up fewer hits but walks more batters and when healthy he too will give you 200 innings. The next starter in line should one of the five get hurt or traded is probably Liam Hendriks who could be a lot like Brad Radke if all goes according to plan. Maybe late in the season there may even be a Kyle Gibson sighting, that would be cool.

Bullpen – The Twins bullpen is anchored by closer Matt Capps and I don’t have nearly the issues with Capps that many other bloggers and fans have. He is not the 3 up 3 down kind of closer but he will get the job done when the scoreboard shows the Twins leading late in the game. If former Orioles manager and Hall of Famer Earl Weaver was the Twins manager today he would call Capps a “two-pack closer”.  That meant that Weaver, a heavy smoker could go through two packs of cigarettes as he watched his closer finally shut down the opposition. The set-up guys are left hander and Minnesota native Glen Perkins who escaped the Twins doghouse last season and found his niche with the ballclub and was arguably the Twins top pitcher in 2011. The RH set-up guy appears to be Jared Burton a free agent from this past off-season. Burton is only 30 but he has some injury baggage but a few years ago he was touted to be the Reds closer of the future. Burton has a nice career 7.6 SO/9 but the down side is that he also has a 3.9 BB/9, kind of a more experienced Alex Burnett. The left-handed former starter Brian Duensing will spend the season in the bullpen this year where he is probably better suited. The big right-hander Anthony Swarzak has lost some weight this off-season and some say he has locked down a bullpen spot but I don’t think he has pitched all that well this spring but he has not pitched poorly enough not to earn a spot in the Twins bullpen either. Swarzak is versatile and can pitch several days in a row and that makes him a Twin in 2012. The 28 year-old left handed Matt Maloney is a surprise to me. The former Cincinnati Redleg is striking them out right and left this spring and he has good control, yes, I know, spring training stats mean squat but you have to base your decision on something and that is all I have to go on right now. Maloney seems too good to be true but the Twins “have caught lightning in a bottle” before when they went searching for relief pitchers, maybe they did it again. The final bullpen spot I think is still up in the air between Alex Burnett, Jeff Manship and Kyle Waldrop, all right handers and all with some Twins experience on their resume. If you go strictly by the numbers this spring, Waldrop is the guy for you but Burnett has the most experience and according to Twins management, has upside going for him so I gave the final bullpen spot to the Alex Burnett.

So that is it, that is how I see the Twins roster shaping up for the 2012 season. I would like to tell you that the Twins will contend for the AL Central title this year but I just don’t see that in the cards. I do see the Twins roster turning over as the season moves along and players like Chris Parmelee, Brian Dozier, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Carlos Gutierrez, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros and maybe Kyle Gibson taking on bigger roles at Target field. A number of Twins players will be out to prove that they are still bonified big leaguers this season. 2012 will be a season of change in Minnesota and the July 30 trade deadline could keep GM Terry Ryan real busy. Never the less, I am ready to see the Minnesota Twins open the 2012 season. WIN TWINS!

How about the batting order on opening day? here is how I see it.

Span – CF – bats left
Carroll – SS – bats right
Mauer – C – bats left
Morneau – DH – bats left
Willingham – LF – bats right
Doumit – RF – switch hitter
Valencia – 3B – bats right
Parmelee – 1B – bats left
Casilla – 2B – switch hitter
 

Morneau hitting fourth and Willingham fifth is just Gardy’s loyalty to Justin and reward for his years of Twins service. Morneau and Willingham will switch spots in the batting order very soon.

 

When is it time to start to worry?

The Twins spring training record through Friday, March 16th is 8-8. I think they are doing it with smoke, mirrors, and a little good pitching now and then. When you look at the Twins hitting and pitching this spring you have to wonder what the season holds in store. As a team, in 16 games and 528 at bats the Twins are hitting .237, slugging .322 and have a .319 OBP. The opposition is hitting .278, slugging .408 and have a .342 OBP. The Twins have hit 9 home runs and ground into 11 double plays and they haven’t even played a game in that cavernous Target Field where the Twins can’t seem to hit home runs. If you take the Twins 16 games played thus far and multiply it times 10, you get some scary numbers. I know, the Twins regulars aren’t playing all the time but let’s take a look at the numbers that the Twins proposed line-up for 2012 has put up thus far.

POS Name AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI AVG
C Mauer 23 1 7 0 0 0 4 .304
1B Morneau 26 1 3 0 0 0 1 .115
2B Casilla 25 5 9 1 0 0 0 .360
SS Carroll 23 1 1 0 0 0 0 .043
3B Valencia 24 4 9 2 0 3 7 .310
RF Willingham 20 3 5 0 0 1 2 .250
CF Span 24 3 10 0 0 0 1 .417
LF Revere 25 2 8 0 0 0 2 .320
LF Plouffe 25 2 6 1 0 0 2 .240
DH Doumit 22 0 5 1 0 0 1 .227
Justin Morneau

How can you not be worried about Justin Morneau and his total lack of power? How about Jamey Carroll hitting less than one-third his weight? Questions abound. Have I mentioned that the Twins pitching staff this spring has a 4.28 ERA and the opposing pitchers have a 2.71 ERA against the Twins? Lots of questions and issues and we are half way through spring training with 16 games left to go. It will make for an interesting couple of weeks for sure, stay tuned.

What I saw at Hammond Stadium yesterday

I wanted to check out the Twins “B” game against the Red Sox yesterday so I jumped in the Durango and took the 10 mile drive from Cape Coral to Fort Myers. When I arrived at Hammond Stadium there were plenty of free parking spaces and I took one fairly close to the main ballpark entrance. As I walked towards the stadium I saw Lavelle E. Neal III a couple of spots down from me get out of his rental car and prepare for another day of Star Tribune Twins coverage. He appeared to be in a hurry and was a bit late I think because as I walked into the stadium the Twins were taking the field at 10  AM for their encounter with those hated Red Sox. I looked to see where I wanted to sit and since there was probably less than 200 people in the park I had my choice of sitting in the shade down the right field line or behind home plate albeit in the sun and even at this early hour, the sun was beating down pretty hard. I know, it is a rough life…..I decided to sit behind home plate and took a seat across the isle for GM Terry Ryan and a host of other scouts. The first pitch Blackburn threw was wacked up the middle for a clean single that Blackburn just missed back-handing, but he got out of that inning unscored on and ended up pitching three scoreless innings. The Red Sox Jon Lester also kept the Twins off the board in his 3 innings of work although one inning ended with just two out because Lester had apparently reached his pitch count for the day. But that is how life is in these “B” games, you never know what you might see happen next. It was fun sitting next to Ryan and the other scouts and to listen to their banter back and forth after each pitch. You sprinkle in a few stories about the good old days and the “back in our day” players were a lot different discussions and it makes for some entertaining eavesdropping. It was obvious these guys all have spent a lot of time together on the road and enjoy each other company as they go about their work. I did not recognize any of the scouts but based on the way they talked it sounded as if a number of them had their time in the sun on the major league diamond.  It is funny watching the scouts because just as the pitcher is ready to deliver a pitch you see a sea of radar guns pop into position as the pitch is thrown. But you know what, in all the games I have ever attended and seen GM Ryan scout players, I have never ever seen him with a radar gun, a stop watch, sure, but never a radar gun. The man is old school and I would love to see what he writes for notes about the players he watches. Terry Ryan has to be the friendliest and most fan accessible GM in baseball. He will always say hello and talk baseball with whoever happens to walk up to or sit down next to him.

As I said, I only watched four innings of the game before I moved on to the minor league side to see what was going on there on their first full day of training camp but first I want to make note of a couple of things kind of stood out for me today as I watched the Twins and Red Sox play. Joe Mauer started at first base and he is looking pretty comfortable over there but he has a ways to go before he is a really good first baseman and understands the ins and outs of playing first. Justin Morneau is really, really thin, I wonder how much weight he has really lost and why. I for one am not convinced that Morneau is back to what he was when he was one of the most feared sluggers in the American league. Trevor Plouffe started in left field and called off his infielders on a pop up to left and then proceeded to dive and have the ball clank off his glove. I know that it was very windy today but still, if you call off your infielders, you had better make sure you make the catch. I for one want to see Plouffe win a starting outfield job because I think the man can hit but we have to keep in mind that he will not be a gold glover out there for some time.

I took the walk over to the minor league fields and all the fields were empty except for one and that field had all the Twins minor league players assembled on their first day as some players were still going through their physicals. The staff was getting the players separated by club, Fort Myers, Beloit, etc. and then they had each group of players listen to a short “here are our expectations” talk and then they had the players stretch for a bit, throw for a little while and then the main event of the day for each group was the mile run. I was a bit surprised at how some of these players were dreading the run. A mile is apparently four times around the perimeter of this particular playing field and as each group completed their run their individual times was recorded, I don’t know if the time means anything but never the less it was being tracked. I know I can’t run the mile in the times that these players were putting up but then again, some of them are 45 years younger than I am. The bottom line is that a lot of these players were really huffing and puffing to get their mile done and some were darn near walking. This mile run could not have been a total surprise to these players and I wonder why they have not gotten themselves in better shape and better prepared prior to spring training. Baseball is what they hope to make a living from and these guys come to spring training out of shape? What are these guys thinking? A number of these players look like they spent the off-season watching I Love Lucy reruns or playing video games. I guess that is why you never know about what the future holds when you draft these guys to be big league ball players but I can’t help but wonder how bad some of these guys really want to play pro ball on a big league level. I know these guys are the cream of the baseball crop and they have probably always been the stars of the teams they played for and have always had things handed to them but still, you have to take care of your body which in this case is your livelihood. Baseball is obviously no different that the real life business world, the young workers of today expect to be promoted quickly and paid well for their efforts even though their efforts may not measure up to what my generation may expect. I am not saying that all the young players are being lazy because many of them are working their butts off to get ahead but some of these minor league Twins players just don’t get it, I hope they catch on before it is too late for them and their Twins careers. Then again, I have not seen any of these guys hit or pitch a ball as yet, Babe Ruth and CC Sabathia aren’t the most athletic baseball players I have ever seen either.

As always, I managed to get a couple of pictures today that you can view in my 2102 Spring Training Pictures section.

Keep an eye on those “at bats”

Now that the Twins and everyone else have started their exhibition season, we fans once again have box scores to read so we can track how our favorite players are doing. We all know that what a hitter does in spring training games means very little in the grand scheme of things but the fact that a player is playing and getting at bats can mean a lot. The hitters need to shake off the rust and get their timing down. I don’t think it is so much how well the hitter is hitting as it is getting time in the batters box facing live pitching and getting at bats. I am not saying that you should not be concerned if a hitter goes 1 for 25 but at the same time you should not get too excited if a players hits 12 home runs in spring games either.

I think Gardy, the Twins and most of the other baseball teams have fallen into some bad habits over the last few years and maybe go too easy on the veteran players as far as getting their at bats in and have kind of left it up to the individual players to decide when they should play in these exhibition games. How often have you gone to a spring training game and find that the visiting team has only brought 2 or 3 regulars and one of them is probably a pitcher. This is an accepted practice now days and that is a bunch of crap in my humble opinion and it is not good for the fans or the players. Just because a player has been in the big leagues for a few years does not mean that he needs less at bats to get regular season ready. It all comes down to the fact that they don’t want to take those long bus rides, that is a bunch of hoey. Most of the games are within a couple of hours driving distance and yet todays players would rather stay back at camp than take that bus trip and get their 2 or 3 at bats in a game situation. If game situations are not that important, then why are exhibition games played at all, why don’t team just stay home save the money and play intra squad games? I have no problem with a player not playing if he is injured but at the same time that these guys are not playing they say they are healthy and working on preparing for the regular season. If you look back over the spring stats from the last few years you will see that the most at bats that a player usually will get during the spring is around 65 and most of the regular players average between 50-60 at bats in the spring games. Yes,  I know injuries come into play, but let’s take a look at what last years at bat counts were for the Twins regulars:

Mauer – appeared in 8 games and had 20 at bats (15 and 45 in 2010)

Morneau – appeared in 11 games and had 33 at bats (17 and 50 in 2010)

Nishioka – appeared in 20 games and had 58 at bats

Casilla – appeared in 22 games and had 50 at bats

Valencia – appeared in 24 games and had 65 at bats

Cuddyer – appeared in 8 games and had 21 at bats

Span – appeared in 21 games and had 62 at bats

Young – appeared in 18 games and had 48 at bats

Kubel – appeared in 22 games and had 53 at bats

I will be interested to watch the games this spring and see how many at bats the Twins starting line-up actually gets. If you want to follow the Twins spring stats, you can find them here.

First official team workout of 2012

I had to check out the Twins first official workout on Friday. Naturally the number of fans watching Twins drills has increased substanially over what has been there previously. But you know what? The main question you hear as you walk from field to field is “have you been over to the new Red Sox complex yet”? Ft. Myers is Red Sox territory for sure and the Minnesota Twins are playing second fiddle here. I have only seen the complex as I have driven by it but everyone that has seen it has said it is pretty nice and makes the Twins complex look bush league. The biggest complaint I have heard so far about the complex is that the ballpark tours that the Red Sox put on are sold out every day. If you listen to the “locals” here, it is a done deal that the Washington Nationals will be moving to Ft. Myers in the next year or two and will be using the old Boston Red Sox complex as their new spring training site after the city/county make some improvements.

Gardy gave his first day speech to several player groups and I think Gardy has to feel a bit of pressure this spring to get the team back on the right track. I don’t think that means he has to win a division title, it just means he needs to regain control of the team that seemed to not put forth a major league effort last year. Outside of seeing Justin Morneau take the field for the first time I do not have much to report. I saw Justin take part in several infield drills but I did not get to see him take BP. He looked OK but we will just have to wait and see if Justin can particiapte in all the drills over the next week or two. I still do not think Morneau is his same old self.

Ryan Doumit

One player that kind of stood out in my eyes today was free agent signee catcher/outfielder Ryan Doumit. Doumit was wearing his catchers gear today and was hustling all morning from field to field. Some players seem to drag themselves from drill to drill while others jog, Doumit is one of those that lets no grass grow under his feet. With this many players in camp it is hard to see everyone since there are so many groups of players particiapting in various drills but one player I missed seeing today was Danny Valencia. Joe Mauer was working hard again today, good to see. I also checked out the minor league fields and the small core of players that has been there for several weeks is growing by the day. I took a number of pictures that you can see by going to my 2012 Spring Training pictures in the right hand column of this page.

How the Morneau situation looks to me

As of today there was no sign of former MVP Justin Morneau at the Twins complex. Without Justin Morneau playing like he did between 2006 and 2009 the Minnesota Twins have no chance. None, nada, zippo, sure Joe Mauer can come back but without the play at first base and the power that Justin Morneau generates when healthy, Twins fans might as well prepare for a long season. Here is my take on what I see happening right now and keep in mind that I have nothing to base my opinion on here except what I see and hear taking place in Fort Myers right now. I have no inside information, I have heard no rumors, nothing, just my gut feel speaking here. I hope I am wrong and I know I am a “glass half-empty kind of guy” but it sure does not look good to me.

  • Let’s start with what I think are facts we do know and can all agree on. Justin has had a habit when he was healthy of being an early training camp arrival earlier in his career but with his recent string of injuries starting in 2010, that has not been the case.
  • The Twins have stated that Morneau is making good progress but has not been cleared by MLB to resume baseball activities, something that team GM Terry Ryan says will be rectified soon.
  • At no point during this past off-season have I heard Morneau say in any interview that he is ready to play in 2012, all I have heard from him is that he is feeling better than he did last spring, that he feels he is making progress and that he is working hard to prepare for 2012.

I think that the Twins are between a rock and a hard spot, Morneau keeps telling them he hopes to be ready to play so the team does not want to display a lack of faith in Justin and possibly also waste salary dollars signing a free agent first baseman if Morneau is indeed ready to go. With season ticket renewal already down due to the teams bad play in 2011, the Twins surely do not want to make a public statement before their 2012 season tickets even go on sale that Justin Morneau will not be the Twins starting first baseman on opening day. If Morneau was indeed healthy, he would have been in Fort Myers a week ago or more, taking part in early drills with his teammates after a disastrous 63-99 season in 2011. A healthy player coming off a serious injury like Morneau is, wants his teammates and his fans to know he is back and 100% healthy.

We will all know a lot more about Justin Morneau’s real status over the next 7-10 days when we see how Morneau performs during spring drills and if he plays in the early exhibition games. My best guess is that Morneau is not ready to play and will not be in the near future and will start the 2012 season on the DL. I only hope we have not seen Morneau’s last big league ball game, but that is a totally different story. I think the Twins will first check out former Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Steve Pearce to see if he can handle the job since he is a natural first baseman. Sure the Twins could try to play Ryan Doumit there but he has no experience to speak of and Gardy has already christened him as the season opening DH. If Pearce can’t do the job than the Twins basically have no choice but to hand the job over to Chris Parmelee who they would dearly love to get more AAA time in Rochester. Luke Hughes is a possibility too but he hurt his shoulder in winter ball in Australia and is not doing any serous work in camp so far. Reports have it that Hughes had a cortisone shot on Wednesday but he still will not be able to workout until this week-end at the earliest so he starts out behind the eight-ball himself. The Twins also have 27 year-old Aaron Bates who has 5 games of major league experience but there is a reason why at 27 he has 5 big league games under his belt. The Twins no longer have Michael Cuddyer to come to the rescue and play first base. Sure the Twins could ask Joe Mauer to move to first full-time but Mauer would not do that on a full-time basis, he wants to catch. So you see, the Twins options are limited. GM Terry Ryan and manager Ron Gardenhire must go to bed each night praying for a miracle and that miracle is that Justin Morneau can not only come back to play first base but that he can play like he did before 2010. A miracle is described as: an effect or extraordinary event in the physical world that surpasses all known human or natural powers and is ascribed to a supernatural cause. Yep, that is what we need!

Home run combo’s

A couple of days ago it was reported that the Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with free agent 1B Prince Fielder on a 9 year $214 million deal. This deal took place just a couple of days after the Tigers reported they may have lost C/1B/DH Victor Martinez for the season due to a torn ACL. Martinez only hit 12 home runs for Detroit last year but he knocked in 100 runs and he hit .330 while Miguel Cabrera hit .344 with 30 home runs while knocking in 108. The top two home run hitters for the Tigers were Cabrera with 31 and SS Jhonny Peralta who hit 21 long balls. Fielder, playing with the Milwaukee Brewers last season hit 38 while teammate Ryan Braun hit 33 for a total of 71 long balls between them. The big question is how do you keep both of these first baseman in the line-up, Cabrera has already been reported as saying that he can move to 3B but having Fielder at 1B and Cabrera at 3B seems like a real stretch, teams would be bunting left and right. Sure one of these guys can DH but both Fielder and Cabrera are over weight and playing in the field helps to control that to some degree, have one sitting on the bench can’t be a good thing. A home run combo like Cabrera and Fielder made me wonder what kind of power combinations the Twins have fielded over the years. Here is what I found.

Rank Year # Home Runs Player Player
1 1964 81 Killebrew – 49 Allison/Oliva – 32
2 1963 80 Killebrew – 45 Allison – 35
3 1962 77 Killebrew – 48 Allison – 29
4 1961 75 Killebrew – 46 Allison – 29
5 1969 73 Killebrew – 49 Oliva – 24
6 1967 68 Killebrew – 44 Allison – 24
7 1986 65 Gaetti – 34 Hrbek – 31
7 1987 65 Hrbek – 34 Gaetti – 31
7 2006 65 Morneau – 34 Hunter – 31
8 1966 64 Killebrew – 39 Oliva – 25
8 1970 64 Killebrew – 41 Oliva – 23
9 2009 62 Cuddyer – 32 Morneau – 30
10 1984 59 Brunansky – 32 Hrbek – 27
10 2007 59 Morneau – 31 Hunter – 28

 

What is the Twins plan?

GM Terry Ryan

What exactly is the Twins plan going forward? In the past, the Twins have always stressed pitching and fielding. The Twins went into 2011 saying that they wanted to improve their defense and their speed. This past off-season the Twins signed Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll and none of these players can be seen even remotely as defensive stars or speed demons. On the pitching side they resigned Matt Capps to be their closer and signed Jason Marquis as another “innings eater” starter to replace Brian Duensing whom they want to move to the bullpen.  For middle relief they went after quantity versus quality hoping to catch “lightning in a bottle” by claiming or signing relievers such as Jason Bulger, Jared Burton, Samuel Deduno, Matt Maloney, Aaron Thompson, Daryl Thompson, Casey Fien, PJ Walters, Brendan Wise and Joel Zumaya. GM Terry Ryan also signed players with big league experience such as 3B Sean Burroughs, 1B Steve Pearce, OF Wilkin Ramirez, and catcher JR Towles.

In the past, Twins management has stated that they didn’t want to start camp too early because the players just got bored and burnt out waiting for the real games to begin. The Twins have historically been one of the last teams to report to and start training camp, this year they are one of the first teams to report and start work-outs.

This year the Twins will have at least 25 non-roster spring training invites this year, there will be more players out there than you can shake a stick at. In the past the Twins position has been not to invite too many players in spring camp because there was just not enough playing time and they wanted to give everyone a chance to showcase their talents.

Ron Gardenhire

This year the Twins seem to be desperate, picking up some veteran hitting help even though their defense and speed will suffer, they picked up a slew of relievers hoping that one or maybe two can find their way north to Minnesota. Speed? Gardy felt a need for speed going into 2011 but I have not heard him mention speed once this off-season. When you sign a 38 year old Jamey Carroll who has never had a full-time starting role to be your regular shortstop you are indeed close to a panic situation. Yep, these are desperate and trying times in Twinsville as the team tries to regroup from a horrendous 63-99 2011 season and the team is taking desperate steps to right a ship that is on the shoals of a major rebuilding effort. The problem they have is that Joe Mauer is making a ton of money and they haven’t a clue as to what will happen with 1B Justin Morneau who is coming off his seventh career concussion. Without big comebacks from both of these Twins stars the team has no chance at even finishing near the .500 mark. Ron Gardenhire will have to do his best managing act ever to get this team to win half of their games.

So it will be an interesting spring in Ft. Myers this year and I would expect to see a number of intrasquad and “B” squad games taking place on the back fields of Hammond Stadium. I will be there to watch the action and it should be fun. The beauty of this time of the year is that we all have hope and no one has lost a game as yet. It just seems to me that the Minnesota Twins are changing gears this year and things are going to be a lot different going forward into 2012 and beyond. So make sure you buy a scorecard when you attend your first Twins game this year.

Can Twins bounce back in 2012? What does history tell us?

Our Minnesota Twins are coming off an atrocious 2011 where the team finished 63-99, a full 32 games behind the AL Central Division winning Detroit Tigers and in the process posting the second worst record in all of baseball. But 2011 is behind us now and we look forward to spring and a brand new season of baseball which hopefully will see the Twins back in winning form. In just a little over a month, Twins players from all over the globe will start to congregate in Ft. Myers, Florida to get into baseball shape which I think really means that they will get in a little stretching, jog a little, catch up on the off-season gossip and  start throwing the baseball around and take a few swings with those shiny new bats they just received during the off-season. When a bad season of baseball ends, there is always “next year” and that next year is just about upon us.

Long before baseball was played, back sometime between 1688-1744 the English poet Alexander Pope said “hope springs eternal in the human breast” and no truer words could be said about how baseball fans look at their favorite baseball teams. Forgotten are the numerous injuries, be they real or perceived, the dropped balls, the hitters that couldn’t run out a ground ball, the runners that had brain farts and stood there and watched as the hit and run unfolded in front of them, the fielders that couldn’t throw straight, the pitchers that keep hitting opponent bats, the perplexed pitching coach who wondered why his pitchers couldn’t find home plate even though it was always in the same spot, the manager who had to make up numerous line-ups each day because he didn’t know which of his players were in the mood to play that day, and of course the owner who was left to wonder what happened to his $113 million.

The injuries that plagued the team in 2011 are hopefully healed and with another year of experience under their belts, we all hope the Twins are back and playing baseball the way that Twins fans of today expect. We are not interested in seeing the Twins play ball as they did say between 1971-1986 when they never won more than 85 games and finished as high as second only once, we expect to see a winning team on the field or at least a team that is playing like they want to win versus the 2011 bunch that quit early and often.

So, what does history tell us will happen to the Twins in 2012? I want you to keep reading, but the bottom line is that while miracles can happen, it sure does not look good. The Twins were 31 games worse in 2011 than they were in 2010, 31 games, only once in franchise history had a Senators/Twins team played so much worse than they had the previous season and those were the Washington Senators of 1934 who finished the season 33 games worse with a 66-86 mark after advancing to the World Series in 1933 with a 99-53 record. The following season (1935) they won 67 games, one more than the year before.

So how have Senators and Twins teams bounced back from such dismal seasons? The best the Senators could ever do was improve by 27 games back between 1911-1912 and the best the Twins have done since 1961 is improve by 23 games as the 1965 Twins did when they won 102 games coming off a 79 win season in 1964.

But let’s look at more modern times so we will look at the seasons between 1997 and 2011 because it probably makes for a fairer comparison based on free agency and player movement of today. In the last 15 seasons here is what has happened in the AL Central Division.

The Kansas City Royals worst drop-off was in 2004 when the team finished 25 games worse than they did in 2003. The following season, 2005, the Royals finished 2 games worse. The best improvement that the Royals have shown their fans was when they finished 21 games better in 2003 than they had shown in 2002.

The Chicago White Sox worst drop-off was in 2007 when the team finished 18 games worse than they did in 2006. The following season, 2008, the mighty whitey’s finished 17 games better. The best improvement that the White Sox fans have seen was when they finished 20 games better in 2000 than they had shown in 1999.

The Cleveland Indians worst drop-off was in 2002 when the team finished 17 games worse than they did in 2001. The following season, 2003, the Indians finished 6 games worse. The best improvement that the Indians fans have seen was when they finished 18 games better in 2007 than they had shown in 2006.

The Detroit Tigers worst drop-off was 14 games and it happened twice, once between 1997 and 1998 and again from 2007 to 2008. The following season in 1999 the team improved by 4 games and in 2009 the team improved by 12 games. The best improvement that the Tigers have seen was when they finished 29 games better in 2004 (to a 72-90 season) than they had shown in 2003, but, 2003 was the season the Tigers put up a pathetic 43-119 record.

That brings us to the Twins, whose worst drop-off was 31 games in 2011 from their 2010 season. The biggest improvement the Twins have shown during this 15 year period was in 2001 (TK’s last season as manager) when they finished 16 games better than what they showed us in 2000. In the past 15 years the Twins have improved their record from the previous season 8 times for an average improvement in games won over the previous season of 8 games. On the minus side their record has gotten worse from the previous season 7 times for an average of -11.29 but that is obviously skewed by the big -31 of 2011. If the 2012 Twins could match their biggest improvement of say 16 games as they did in 2001, that still only moves the Twins 2012 record up to 79-83. The Twins have to improve by 18 games just to reach the .500 mark and would have to improve by 27 games to reach the 90 win mark. It does not look promising.

The Twins have improved their previous years mark by 18 games or better on 4 occassions. The feat was accomplished by the 1991 team that improved by 21 games, the 1969 team that improved by 18 games, the 1965 team that improved by 23 games and the 1962 team that was 21 games better than the 1961 team. Four times in 50 seasons, not good odds for sure and remember, an 18 game improvement only takes the team to an 81-81 record, or .500 baseball. The team has lost Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey and a number of bit players but then again, they lost 99 games when they had these guys. I know they added Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and brought back Matt Capps but how many wins will these guys put in the “W” column?

What this team needs in order to play respectable baseball is for Joe Mauer to step back to earth from the “Twilight Zone” that he was in most of last year and catch 130 games and play 1B and DH for 10-15 more. I see no reason why this can’t happen, Mauer should come out of the gate madder than hell and show everyone that 2011 was a fluke. I will believe that when I see it. The next issue is Justin Morneau, here I am not nearly as optimistic. Justin was just a shell of himself in 2011 and I worry that Justin Morneau’s baseball career is coming to a premature end. That would be so sad as Justin should have many more years in him as a productive Twins first baseman. I hope I am totally wrong about Morneau, but if I was a betting man I would say “show me you still got it” Justin. I hope that Danny Valencia thought long and hard about his baseball career since the 2011 season ended because if he continues to play in 2012 like he did in 2011, he will be receiving his fan mail in Rochester come the middle of May. Valencia might not be the .311 hitter he was in 2010 but he sure better not be the .246 hitter he was in 2011 either. A little more work with the glove wouldn’t hurt Danny either. The Twins outfield is a mess, Willingham is a left fielder and the Twins need him to play right because Ben Revere can’t throw out his grandmother. So that forces the team to play Revere in center which is OK in itself but that means you need to move Span to right field but Span says he wants to play center. In my humble opinion, any outfield with Revere and Span both playing at the same time is a bad thing. I am not sure how things are going to shake out but come the second half of 2012, Joe Benson will be playing in the Twins outfield some where. The Twins signed Jamey Carroll to play short but the man has never had a full-time job in 10 big league seasons and he will be 38 before the Twins open the exhibition season. Is that a move that a contending team makes? We can hope that Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes back to life and show us that he really is a professional baseball player……come on, really, there is a chance. Alexi Casilla at 2B is an enigma but I still have hope for this 27-year-old with parts of six big league season under his belt. The bullpen is a couple of sharp knives short of a complete set and the starting staff of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, and Jason Marquis would make any manager nervous.

So here it is, you make up your mind, can the Twins compete or will they have to fight and scratch like hell just to reach the .500 mark? Me? Come October, I think we should all be dancing on Target Plaza celebrating manager Ron Gardenhire’s second manager of the year award with a cold drink in our hand if this collection of Twins can win half of their games in 2012. However; if this this team wins 70 or fewer games in 2012, manager Ron Gardenhire may be looking for a job.