Tag: Joe Nathan

Questions everywhere

February 23, 2011 – I checked on the Twins on Monday and I stayed for about 1.5 hours but I walked away kind of bored. The position players still had not reported and the pitchers and catchers were going through their early spring routines. A few minor leaguers were taking some infield practice with TK, nothing extraordinary going on anywhere. Nishioka was as normal to this point, out on a field by himself, doing a little (and I mean little) running if you don’t count his side-kicks who apparently are his translator, nutritionist, and work-out guru. Everyone was looking for Justin Morneau and he was nowhere to be seen but he did eventually hold a news conference later in the day.

The Twins have so many questions as spring training begins, more questions than Alex Trebek has on Jeopardy. What questions? Let me list a few of them for you that come to mind right off the bat, not necessarily in order of importance. 2011 will be an interesting season at the ballpark, you can bet your bippy on it.

  •  Will Justin Morneau be able to come back from his concussion?
  • Can Joe Nathan become the same closer he was before he had TJ surgery?
  • Joe Mauer hasn’t even caught a bullpen session and he already has knee issues.
  • How will Francisco Liriano react to the trade rumors? He is not exactly a Rock of Gibraltar to begin with.
  • Can Alexi Casilla hold down a full-time middle infield spot?
  • Can Tsuyoshi Nishioka play in the majors this season and hold down a middle infield job?
  • Can Danny Valencia improve on his 2010 season without his head getting too big?
  • Can Denard Span bounce back from a poor 2010 season?
  • Can Rick Anderson make silk out of a sows ear in the bullpen?
  • Can Delmon Young repeat his breakout season?
  • Can Jim Thome last another season before his back gives out for the final time?
  • Can Jason Kubel bounce back and play the way he is capable of playing?
  • Will any Twins pitcher show some backbone and make some of those opposing batters dance in the batter’s box once in a blue moon?
  • When are the Twins batters going to quit crying that it is too hard to hit home runs at Target Field?
  • Last year the back drop at Target Field was repainted, after the season the trees have been or will soon be removed. What will Twins batters ask for next? A roof to keep the sun out of their eyes?
  • Who didn’t measure up last year in Gardy’s eyes? Scott Ullger as his third base coach or Steve Liddle as his bench coach? They swapped jobs going into 2011.
  • Can Glenn Perkins and Pat Neshek stay out of Gardy’s doghouse this year? I think they each have one strike left before they are sent packing.
  • Will Gardy actually let his players steal some bases this year?
  • Can the Twins ever get over the “Yankee” hump?

What to do, What to do?

GM Bill Smith

November 11, 2010 – The Twins have nine players (Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, Carl Pavano, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Randy Flores, and Ron Mahay) that became free agents and Nick Punto was added to the free agent list when the Twins passed on his $5 million option and let him walk for the $500K buy-out. They did however; pick up Jason Kubel’s $5.25 million option.

OK, so what do they do now? The Twins payroll was about $101 million last year and President Dave St. Peter has stated that the payroll will go up for 2011 but he did not say by how much. For the record, the Twins have stated that they usually spend 50% of their revenue on player payroll. Since we don’t know the true figure of the Twins revenue let’s assume that they will raise their payroll this year by about 10% and that the payroll number they will be shooting for is $110-$115 million.

The Twins have a number of issues as they go into the off-season. The bullpen is pretty much decimated by free agency so they have a huge rebuilding task there, Carl Pavano, although not a number 1 or 2 pitcher in my mind is still a valuable starter. They can probably fill their 2B hole from with-in and then there is always the question of what happens with Jim Thome who was the team leader in home runs but can’t play in the field and is 40 years old.

If those were the only problems that the Twins had they would be in good shape but they have two other huge black clouds off in the distance, will Joe Nathan bounce back from Tommy John surgery and if so, can he be ready to open the season as the Twins closer? What about Justin Morneau and his concussion, will Justin be healthy enough to start the season at 1B? Nathan and Morneau are huge question marks that have huge implications on how the Twins should spend their payroll dollars and what kinds of free agents they should go after and what kinds of trades they might pursue.

If I am Bill Smith I have to sit back and say WOW, where do we start? Strangely enough Smith started by signing free agent pitcher Eric Hacker, a career minor leaguer, with the exception of 3 big league relief appearances with the Pirates in 2009. Smith has also been quoted as saying they are in the Thome hunt but you have to wonder how long they will stay in that hunt. Thome put up some very nice numbers but only because he had the opportunity to play way more than was originally planned due to Morneau’s injury. If Morneau is healthy do you want a 40 year old with back problems as your DH? No, but then again he did hit 25 home runs and he will want more money and there are other teams, some in the Central Division that might just give it to him. Orlando Hudson is probably history, a luxury the Twins can no longer afford with Alexi Casilla once again showing he can probably do the job for less money.

So what to do with the bullpen free agents? Mahay and Flores are easy, let them go, no one is going to beat their doors down to sign them. Flores had a 4.91 ERA and pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings in 11 games, geez! Brian Fuentes I really like, but he wants to close and the Twins don’t have that opportunity open to him here so he is gone too. Jon Rauch is good insurance since he has closing experience but with him I am thinking it is all about the money, depending on what he wants determines if the Twins keep him. The two most important free agent relievers are Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier. Guerrier is three years older and has pitched in 70+ games in four consecutive years. Crain strikes out more batters but also walks more. There is also some talk floating around that Crain would like to be a closer somewhere and the Twins have no closer opening. Crain and Guerrier are two totally different pitchers but yet they both get the job done. If I am Mr. Smith, it is a priority for me to sign both of these guys to provide some stability for a bullpen that needs some help. And these moves just scratch the surface of the Twins moves this off season, you might need a scorecard to identify the players.

Twins bring in another closer

Brian Fuentes

August 27, 2010 – The Twins announced today that they have acquired 35 year old left-handed closer Brian Fuentes from the Los Angeles Angels for a player to be named later (to be named by October 15). Fuentes had 23 saves in 27 opportunities with the Angels this season after leading the AL in saves in 2009 with 48. Fuentes, nicknamed T-Rex, had a 4-1 record in 39 games with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.20 to go along with 39 strikeouts and 5 home runs allowed. Gardenhire has stated that Capps will retain the closer role and Fuentes will be primarily a set-up guy but he will get some closing opportunities if Capps is used too many days in a row. This is Fuentes’s tenth big league season and he does have 186 lifetime saves pitching for the Mariners, Rockies, and the Angels. So now the Twins have ties to 4 closers if you count Nathan who is out for the year in Rauch, Capps, and Fuentes. Fuentes will be available for Saturday’s game so a roster move will be required, probably after today’s game against the Mariners. Fuentes has about $1.89 million due him this year but he will probably not meet the required 55 games finished to trigger his $9 million vesting option for next season. Sure looks like the Twins are “going all in” this year.

Joe and Joe

March 23, 2010 – First of all, congratulations to the Minnesota Twins and Joe Mauer for getting a deal done, and in the nick of time too, because both the fans and the writers were all confident that a deal would get done and Joe would resign with Minnesota but lately some ugly rumors and discussions had started surfacing that maybe Mauer should be traded if he is not interested in signing for the “big” money that the Twins were offering. These kinds of stories could only cause ill will between all parties concerned and it is a good thing that both sides were able to get together and get a deal done before the ‘mud slinging” had a chance to really get going and things were said that would not be easily forgotten.

Now that everyone has had a chance to relax and take a deep sigh of relief after Joe Mauer signed an eight year extension for $184MM it is time for the Twins brain trust to get back to solving the next big issue, what to do about the closer problem. When Joe Nathan hurt his elbow back on March 6, he decided to take two weeks and see if he could pitch through the pain and the other day he decided at he couldn’t and now will undergo the infamous TJ or “Tommy John” surgery which has a minimum recovery time of 12 months.

Internally the names that have been discussed have been Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Anthony Slama, and Francisco Liriano but I don’t see any of these names as the answer. Let’s take a look at each one of these guys.

Jon Rauch has the most experience of the bunch with 26 career saves on the books but Gardy says that he wants a closer that can punch out a hitter when needed and Rauch’s strikeouts have dropped from 86, to 71, to 66 and 49 in the last 4 years. In addition, Rauch has given up 37 home runs in the last 4 years, I am not sure that I would like to see Rauch as my everyday closer.

Jesse Crain is also not strikeout pitcher and seems to be too inconsistent from one outing to another in my eyes to be sent out to shut the door on a team day in and day out. Having said that, Crain can be very effective for short periods of time but I would never let Crain pitch more than one inning in whatever role he is in.

Jose Mijares is the lone lefty in the group but he just lacks the experience at this stage of his career to carry the load as the teams closer. He has the stuff to do the job but his lack of experience and his questionable attitude will keep him in his current role.

Matt Guerrier probably has the right mental attitude to be a closer but I am not sure he has the “stuff” to get the job done. Matt gives up about 10 home runs a year on average and his strikeouts have dropped for the last 3 years in a row. Matt is one of the best set-up guys in the business and I would hate to weaken that spot to put him in a closer role where he might be less effective.

Pat Neshek is coming off an injury and did not pitch at all in 2009. Neshek’s funky delivery has served him well in the past but I don’t think that the Twins can thrust him into a closer role after such a long layoff. He meets Gardy’s requirement of having the “punch-out” ability and he for the most part can keep the ball in the ballpark but the recent injury is just more risk then the Twins will want to take at this time.

Francisco Liriano probably has the stuff to be the closer but his mentality will not allow him to fill that role. You have to be a “cool customer” to be a closer and not allow a bad call or runners on base to get to you and there is no way that Liriano can over come these obstacles at this point in his career. Plus you have to ask yourself, is Liriano really ready to jump back into the starter role? If he is, he is probably more valuable there then in the closer role.

How about Anthony Slama? Would you put a rookie driver in your Corvette? I think not.

So, there you have it, the Twins have a good bullpen but they have a missing piece and it is a key missing piece. The Twins don’t have the right spare part to fix their engine without going outside the organization. It won’t be a cheap fix and you have to give up something to get something but the Twins have no choice. The Twins $90+ million car has headed full speed into 2010 and right now the brakes are not working, they need to find the missing link that can slam on the brakes on the opposing team in the 9th inning of those close games when the Twins have the lead. The Twins cannot afford NOT to find a closer, and soon.

Joe Nathan and the Twins

March 10, 2010 – It is all over the news, bad news for Joe Nathan, the Twins, and Twins fans everywhere. Joe Nathan has a torn ligament in his throwing elbow and right now the decision has been made to rest if for several weeks to see if that helps. No one seems to be holding out much hope that the rest will allow Nathan to pitch in 2010. You can understand the Twins point of view; they have a lot on the line so waiting two weeks or so seems a small price to pay in hoping for a miracle.

The Twins can pursue a trade for a proven closer or a closer in waiting. Word is that Jason Frasor who is currently with Toronto is available as are Heath Bell and Kerry Wood and all three have the necessary experience. Right now that seems like the best option but the price could be more than the Twins want to pay since everyone will be asking for the moon with the Twins in dire straits. If the Twins look internally to fill the void, that would present another problem because they would weaken another area to fill the closer role. But if the Twins choose that path, then I think that the pecking order for the closer role should be Rauch, Crain and Mijares. I think that Guerrier is too valuable in the role he is currently in to move to the closer position. Neshek is coming off TJ surgery himself and I can’t see the Twins putting him into the closer role at least during the first half of the season. The Twins don’t have anyone in the minors that they would trust in such a key role for a team expected to go deep in the playoffs. Whatever they do, the Twins must make a decision soon and get the bullpen calmed down with designated roles for everyone, and you don’t want the relievers to go day to day without knowing what their role will be on any given day.

I went to my first Twins spring training game of the season yesterday and saw the Twins beat the Cardinals 7-6 in an entertaining game. When we drove to the park it was crazy, traffic was backed up everywhere and I was sent driving all around the complex before they finally found a parking spot for me in right field of one of the complex’s softball fields. A five minute walk got me in the ballpark but it was the bottom of the first inning and the Twins were already down 2-0 and Adam Wainwright was starting for the Cardinals. It was a back and forth game and I think the Nathan situation was on some of the player’s minds. Nick Punto, playing 3B made two errors and just did not look like his head was in the game. There were some other fielding plays that could have been called errors but were not due to the generosity of the official scorer. Carl Pavano started for the Twins and looked OK but he did give up six hits in three innings. The big blow came in the bottom of the 8th inning with the score tied 6-6 and Danny Valencia came up to the plate for the first time and parked the ball over the left field fence for a home run. It was a nice ending to a fun day at the ballpark. Oh, why the traffic jam? I guess it was because the Twins drew their largest ever crowd to a spring training game at Hammond Stadium, 8,220 baseball starved fans got to see the Twins beat the St. Louis Cardinals.

UPDATE March 21 – The Twins announced this morning that Joe Nathan will undergo “Tommy John” surgery sometime this week. The doctor and location are still to be determined.

A look at the top closers in franchise history

December 16, 2009 – A successful team needs to have a top notch closer, a pitcher that can come in and slam the door on the opposition game after game. In the past, closers were expected to pitch more than one inning but in today’s game most closers pitch only in the ninth inning. The Twins have been blessed over the years with some very good closers and a strong case could be made that their current closer Joe Nathan, is the best of the bunch. Assuming nothing bad happens to Nathan, he should be expected to break the Twins all time saves record now held by Rick Aguilera early in 2010.

Update – Turns out that something did happen and Joe Nathan had TJ surgery and missed all of 2010 and came back in 2011 to take over the Twins career saves lead before leaving as a free agent after the 2011 season. Table has been updated to show the updated numbers.

Just as an interesting tidbit, In looking at the Twins top ten closers in terms of saves, only two were left-handed, the same hold true for the Washington Senators/Nationals who also had only two southpaws in their top 11 save leaders.

Twins Saves Leaders

Joe Nathan
Joe Nathan
Name R/L Years pitched Saves K/BB
1 Joe Nathan R 2004-2011 260 4.19
2 Rick Aguilera R 1989-1999 254 3.27
3 Eddie Guardado L 1993-2003, 2008 116 2.26
4 Ron Davis R 1982-1986 108 1.89
5 Jeff Reardon R 1987-1989 104 3.36
6 Al Worthington R 1964-1969 88 2.15
7 Ron Perranoski L 1968-1971 76 1.27
8 Mike Marshall R 1978-1980 54 1.55
9 Bill Campbell R 1973-1976 51 1.76
10 LaTroy Hawkins R 1995-2003 44 1.83

Senators Saves Leaders

Firpo Marberry
Firpo Marberry
Name R/L Years pitched Saves K/BB
1 Firpo Marberry R 1923-1932, 1936 96 n/a
2 Walter Johnson R 1907-1927 34 n/a
3 Tex Clevenger R 1957-1960 29 1.29
4 Garland Braxton L 1927-1930 28 n/a
5 Jack Russell R 1933-1936 26 n/a
6 Dick Hyde R 1955-1960 23 1.04
7 Tom Ferrick R 1947-1948, 1951-1952 22 n/a
8 Mickey Harris L 1949-1952 19 n/a
9 Allan Russell R 1923-1925 19 n/a
10 Pete Appleton R 1936-1939, 1945 17 n/a
11 Jim Shaw R 1913-1921 17 n/a

So what Twins should go to All-Star game?

July 3, 2008 – Catcher Joe Mauer should be the starting catcher if there is no last minute push by Jason Varitek voters. Varitek does not even deserve to be in contention but with the heavy Red Sox nation vote he is a perennial high vote collector. Justin Morneau deserves to start at 1B but again with the heavy Red Sox voting it is very likely that Kevin Youkilis will get the starting nod there but I see no way that Morneau will not make the team. I think that will be it for the Twins unless Joe Nathan gets selected. If you look at saves alone then Nathan is running fourth behind Frankie Rodriguez, George Sherrill, and Jonathan Papelbon. Rodriguez is first in saves so he is a shoe in, Sherrill might be the only Oriole selected and then you have to wait and see if Francona wants to go with his man Papelbon or the Twins Nathan. Joe Nathan is a premier closer and deserves to be on the team but the odds are 50-50 at best, it all depends on how AL manager Terry Francona structures his pitching staff and if he goes heavy with starters or closers.