Tag: Jesse Crain

Do you trade upcoming free agents or do you let them walk?

When you talk about free agency there are some fans that believe that you should trade the player and take what you can get in return before the player leaves and there are those that believe you should let the free agent walk and take your compensation or supplemental pick and you will come out ahead. Who is right? I guess it comes down to how much of a risk taker you are, do you take the players that are offered in a deal or do you think you are better off drafting a player and hope that you can sign him and that he developes into the player you think he can be. The money comes in to play too when you consider the signing bonus and the costs that you will incur in developing that player over the years. What about the time? How long will it take to develop that player before he can help the team.

But now the rules are changing, teams can no longer obtain draft pick compensation for any players acquired midseason. The other part of the change to keep in mind is that teams that keep their players now obtain one compensatory draft pick for losing a top free agent, whereas they previously obtained two selections. If a team loses a player who turned down a qualifying offer to sign elsewhere, the player’s original team will obtain a single compensatory selection between the first and second rounds of the draft (the qualifying offers, which are based on the average salary of baseball’s 125 best-paid players, are expected to be worth $12.5MM or so in 2013). Meanwhile, the team that signs the free agent will lose a first round selection (though the top ten picks are protected). However, that lost first round pick no longer goes to the player’s former team. Instead, the pick disappears and the first round becomes condensed.

Over the years the Twins have traded players that were about to become free agents and they have lost a number of players to free agency for a variety of reasons. Let’s take a look at the Minnesota Twins round 1 supplemental picks over the years.

Travis Harrison (Twins-1s-2011) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent infielder Orlando Hudson.  Harrison is currently playing 3B at Elizabethton.

Hudson Boyd (Twins-1s-2011) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent pitcher Jesse Crain. Boyd is currently pitching in Elizabethton.

Matt Bashore (Twins-1s-2009) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent pitcher Dennys Reyes. Bashore was in the Twins organization for 3 years pitching in only 13 games (sat out all of 2010 with injury) before the Twins released him this past spring. Now in Yankee organization pitching in “A” ball.

Carlos Gutierrez (Twins-1-2008) – Pick from the Angels as compensation for free agent outfielder Torii Hunter. Gutierrez is currently pitching in Rochester.

Shooter Hunt (Twins-1s-2008) – Supplemental Pick for loss of free agent outfielder Torii Hunter. Hunt was a minor league rule 5 pick by the Cardinals from the Twins after the 2011 season but no longer appears to be in their organization.

Hank Sanchez (Twins-1s-2005) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent 3B Corey Koskie. Never got above “A” ball for the Twins and he was released after the 2009 season.

Glen Perkins (Twins-1-2004) – Pick from Mariners as compensation for free agent pitcher Eddie Guardado. Perkins has pitched for the Twins since 2006 and is currently the teams  closer.

Kyle Waldrop (Twins-1-2004) – Pick from Cubs as compensation for free agent pitcher LaTroy Hawkins. Waldrop has been with the Twins off and on in 2011-2012 pitching in a total of 11 games.

Matt Fox (Twins-1s-2004) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent pitcher Eddie Guardado. Fox pitched in 1 game for the Twins in 2010 before being claimed by the Red Sox via waivers later in 2010. Currently pitching in “AA” ball for the Mariners organization.

Jay Rainville (Twins-1s-2004) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent pitcher LaTroy Hawkins. Was in the Twins minor league system for 5 season getting as high as “AA” before the Twins let him go. Out of baseball.

Aaron Heilman (Twins-1s-2000) – Supplemental Pick for loss of free agent pitcher Mike Trombley. The Twins could not sign Heilman. The Mets picked Heilman in 2001 and he pitched in the big leagues from 2003-2011, now in “AAA” in the Rangers organization.

Matt LeCroy (Twins-1s-1997) – Supplemental pick for failure to sign 1996 No. 1 choice 1B Travis Lee. Played for the Twins from 2000-2005 and again in 2007. Played for Washington in 2006. Now a manager in the Nationals minor league system

Travis Miller (Twins-1s-1994) – Supplemental pick for failure to sign 1993 No. 1 choice  catcher Jason Varitek. Pitched for the Twins from 1996-2002.

Torii Hunter (Twins-1-1993) – Pick from Reds as compensation for free agent pitcher John Smiley. Played for the Twins from 1997-2007 before becoming a FA himself and signing with the Angels where he still plays today.

Marc Barcelo (Twins-1s-1993) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent pitcher John Smiley. LHP Barcelo pitched in the Twins system between 1993-1997 reaching “AAA” but never got a call to the big leagues.

Kelcey Mucker (Twins-1s-1993) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent SS Greg Gagne. Mucker played in the Twins system from 1993-1999 but never got above “AA” ball.

Scott Stahoviak (Twins-1s-1991) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent 3B Gary Gaetti. Played in 344 games in a Twins uniform at 1B/3B in 1993 and 1995-1998.

Midre Cummings (Twins-1s-1990) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent closer Jeff Reardon. Cummings was traded to the Pirates along with Denny Neagle for pitcher John Smiley in March of 1992. Cummings played in the big leagues from 1993-2001 and 2004-2005 but only played in 100 or more games during one season and that was split between two teams. Played briefly for the Twins between 1999-2000.

You can make a pretty solid argument by looking at the 18 supplemental picks between 1990-2011 that there is just one star in the bunch, Torii Hunter. Glen Perkins, Travis Miller and Aaron Heilman (who the Twins were unable to sign) were serviceable big league pitchers. A number of the players on this list never put on a big league uniform.

Bottom line? It is kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don’t. There is no good answer here and every situation is different. Just another one of those things that makes baseball the interesting game that it is.

The Twins and the Disabled List (DL)

The Twins had a miserable season in 2011 and many blame the Twins slide into the AL central basement on the number of injuries that the Twins endured. But looking at the numbers, injuries alone do not explain the Twins dismal play. The Twins came out of spring training in excellent health but it didn’t take long before players started dropping. It was like a contagious disease all season long, one injury after another. How do you explain it? No one can I think, just a matter of bad luck, sometimes, maybe it was brought on by not knowing how to play your position properly as in the case of Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Later in the season, after the Twins were beaten down and out of the race it seemed like some players just gave up and found it easier to sit on the bench than to get out on the field. The Joe Mauer mystery still remains unanswered. It appears to me that the Twins have several players that do not want to go to the gate unless they are feeling 100%, hell, no one feels 100% everyday. In the real world there are people going to work day in and day out regardless of how they feel for a whole slew of reasons. These players need to understand that they are letting their teammates, fans, and themselves down when they let a minor injury keep them from taking the field. I felt bad for Gardy because he had to make excuses for these malingerers. I wonder what it will take to get some of these guys to “suck it up” and play some baseball? But you think the 2011 Twins had injury problems, check out some of these sad but apparently true injuries that occurred to the boys of summer in a piece that was published back in September of 1992. You may find some former Twins on the list.

So what is the MLB DL and how does it work? In simple terms it works like this. A player may be placed on either the 15-day or the 60-day disabled list, usually depending on the severity or the expected recovery time of the injury. A player may be shifted from the 15-day to the 60-day DL at any time, but not vice-versa. The player may not rejoin the team until 15 or 60 days has elapsed; however, a player’s time on the DL may exceed the specified number of days. Something the Twins know very well. In addition, if a player is sent to the 60-day DL after August 1, he may not return to the active roster for the rest of that season.

The 15-day DL does not count the player on the active roster (comprising the 25-man roster until September 1), whereas the 60-day DL does not require the player to be counted on either the team’s active roster or its 40-man roster; however, a team’s 40-man roster must be full in order for the option of a placement on the 60-day disabled list to be available.

In 2011 MLB instituted a change to the DL policy where as a new 7 day DL was put in place specifically for concussions and brain damage. MLB also put in place a paternity leave policy this season where a team can replace a player who is an expectant father on the roster for 1-3 days in order for them to attend the birth of their child.

Until the late 1980s, there were 10-day and 21-day disabled lists. The number of players who could be placed on each list was limited, and there was much less flexibility about when they could return to action. Back then, players with major league contracts were not allowed to go to the minor leagues for rehabilitation.

But getting back to the Twins situation, I took a look at the Twins injuries for the last 10 seasons 2002-2011 and here is what I found.

Year Record Finish DL Moves DL Days Out for the season
2002 94-67 1st 14 700 Duvall (P)
2003 90-72 1st 10 430 none
2004 92-70 1st 14 593 Mays (P)
2005 83-79 3rd 11 578 Kubel (OF), Balfour (P)
2006 96-66 1st 10 403 none
2007 79-83 3rd 15 995* Liriano (P), Machado (P)
2008 88-75 2nd 11 487 none
2009 87-76 1st 12 551 Bonser (P), Neshek (P)
2010 94-68 1st 18 760 Condrey (P), Nathan (P)
2011 63-99 5th 27 785 none

 * = In addition to Liriano and Machado being out for the season, Perkins, Crain, White, and Rabe all spent 95 or more days on the DL

The table above seems to indicate that the Twins usually average between 10-15 DL moves in a season but the last two seasons have seen a jump in the number of DL moves to 18 and 27 respectively.

From a trainers perspective, like the rest of the Twins organization, changes are few and far between. Up until 2011, the Twins had a head trainer, an assistant trainer and a strength and conditioning coach but in 2011 they added a second assistant trainer.

2002 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2003 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2004 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2005 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2006 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2007 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2008 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2009 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2010 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2011 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Tony Leo (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)

 

Popple and Castellano each have served as strength and conditioning coach for 5 years. When Popple was the SCC, the Twins averaged 541 DL days per season, during the last 5 years under Castellano, the Twins have averaged 716 DL days. coincidence? Maybe. Of course you can’t compare apples to apples here because the players change but still, 175 DL days difference.

We all have an opinion on what Twins we think are always hurt and always on the DL but the table below will show you over the last 10 years who has been on the DL most frequently. The table covers the years of 2002 through 2011 and players that have two or fewer DL trips are not listed.

Player DL appearances Season with the Twins
Nick Punto 9 7
Joe Mauer 6 8
Francisco Liriano 5 7
Kevin Slowey 5 5
Scott Baker 4 7
Alexi Casilla 4 6
Michael Cuddyer 4 11
Justin Morneau 4 9
Glenn Perkins 4 6
Grant Balfour 3 4
Lew Ford 3 5
Torii Hunter 3 11
Corey Koskie 3 7
Jose Mijares 3 4
Pat Neshek 3 5
Luis Rivas 3 6
Shannon Stewart 3 4
Rondell White 3 2

What to do, What to do?

GM Bill Smith

November 11, 2010 – The Twins have nine players (Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, Carl Pavano, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Randy Flores, and Ron Mahay) that became free agents and Nick Punto was added to the free agent list when the Twins passed on his $5 million option and let him walk for the $500K buy-out. They did however; pick up Jason Kubel’s $5.25 million option.

OK, so what do they do now? The Twins payroll was about $101 million last year and President Dave St. Peter has stated that the payroll will go up for 2011 but he did not say by how much. For the record, the Twins have stated that they usually spend 50% of their revenue on player payroll. Since we don’t know the true figure of the Twins revenue let’s assume that they will raise their payroll this year by about 10% and that the payroll number they will be shooting for is $110-$115 million.

The Twins have a number of issues as they go into the off-season. The bullpen is pretty much decimated by free agency so they have a huge rebuilding task there, Carl Pavano, although not a number 1 or 2 pitcher in my mind is still a valuable starter. They can probably fill their 2B hole from with-in and then there is always the question of what happens with Jim Thome who was the team leader in home runs but can’t play in the field and is 40 years old.

If those were the only problems that the Twins had they would be in good shape but they have two other huge black clouds off in the distance, will Joe Nathan bounce back from Tommy John surgery and if so, can he be ready to open the season as the Twins closer? What about Justin Morneau and his concussion, will Justin be healthy enough to start the season at 1B? Nathan and Morneau are huge question marks that have huge implications on how the Twins should spend their payroll dollars and what kinds of free agents they should go after and what kinds of trades they might pursue.

If I am Bill Smith I have to sit back and say WOW, where do we start? Strangely enough Smith started by signing free agent pitcher Eric Hacker, a career minor leaguer, with the exception of 3 big league relief appearances with the Pirates in 2009. Smith has also been quoted as saying they are in the Thome hunt but you have to wonder how long they will stay in that hunt. Thome put up some very nice numbers but only because he had the opportunity to play way more than was originally planned due to Morneau’s injury. If Morneau is healthy do you want a 40 year old with back problems as your DH? No, but then again he did hit 25 home runs and he will want more money and there are other teams, some in the Central Division that might just give it to him. Orlando Hudson is probably history, a luxury the Twins can no longer afford with Alexi Casilla once again showing he can probably do the job for less money.

So what to do with the bullpen free agents? Mahay and Flores are easy, let them go, no one is going to beat their doors down to sign them. Flores had a 4.91 ERA and pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings in 11 games, geez! Brian Fuentes I really like, but he wants to close and the Twins don’t have that opportunity open to him here so he is gone too. Jon Rauch is good insurance since he has closing experience but with him I am thinking it is all about the money, depending on what he wants determines if the Twins keep him. The two most important free agent relievers are Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier. Guerrier is three years older and has pitched in 70+ games in four consecutive years. Crain strikes out more batters but also walks more. There is also some talk floating around that Crain would like to be a closer somewhere and the Twins have no closer opening. Crain and Guerrier are two totally different pitchers but yet they both get the job done. If I am Mr. Smith, it is a priority for me to sign both of these guys to provide some stability for a bullpen that needs some help. And these moves just scratch the surface of the Twins moves this off season, you might need a scorecard to identify the players.

Joe and Joe

March 23, 2010 – First of all, congratulations to the Minnesota Twins and Joe Mauer for getting a deal done, and in the nick of time too, because both the fans and the writers were all confident that a deal would get done and Joe would resign with Minnesota but lately some ugly rumors and discussions had started surfacing that maybe Mauer should be traded if he is not interested in signing for the “big” money that the Twins were offering. These kinds of stories could only cause ill will between all parties concerned and it is a good thing that both sides were able to get together and get a deal done before the ‘mud slinging” had a chance to really get going and things were said that would not be easily forgotten.

Now that everyone has had a chance to relax and take a deep sigh of relief after Joe Mauer signed an eight year extension for $184MM it is time for the Twins brain trust to get back to solving the next big issue, what to do about the closer problem. When Joe Nathan hurt his elbow back on March 6, he decided to take two weeks and see if he could pitch through the pain and the other day he decided at he couldn’t and now will undergo the infamous TJ or “Tommy John” surgery which has a minimum recovery time of 12 months.

Internally the names that have been discussed have been Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Anthony Slama, and Francisco Liriano but I don’t see any of these names as the answer. Let’s take a look at each one of these guys.

Jon Rauch has the most experience of the bunch with 26 career saves on the books but Gardy says that he wants a closer that can punch out a hitter when needed and Rauch’s strikeouts have dropped from 86, to 71, to 66 and 49 in the last 4 years. In addition, Rauch has given up 37 home runs in the last 4 years, I am not sure that I would like to see Rauch as my everyday closer.

Jesse Crain is also not strikeout pitcher and seems to be too inconsistent from one outing to another in my eyes to be sent out to shut the door on a team day in and day out. Having said that, Crain can be very effective for short periods of time but I would never let Crain pitch more than one inning in whatever role he is in.

Jose Mijares is the lone lefty in the group but he just lacks the experience at this stage of his career to carry the load as the teams closer. He has the stuff to do the job but his lack of experience and his questionable attitude will keep him in his current role.

Matt Guerrier probably has the right mental attitude to be a closer but I am not sure he has the “stuff” to get the job done. Matt gives up about 10 home runs a year on average and his strikeouts have dropped for the last 3 years in a row. Matt is one of the best set-up guys in the business and I would hate to weaken that spot to put him in a closer role where he might be less effective.

Pat Neshek is coming off an injury and did not pitch at all in 2009. Neshek’s funky delivery has served him well in the past but I don’t think that the Twins can thrust him into a closer role after such a long layoff. He meets Gardy’s requirement of having the “punch-out” ability and he for the most part can keep the ball in the ballpark but the recent injury is just more risk then the Twins will want to take at this time.

Francisco Liriano probably has the stuff to be the closer but his mentality will not allow him to fill that role. You have to be a “cool customer” to be a closer and not allow a bad call or runners on base to get to you and there is no way that Liriano can over come these obstacles at this point in his career. Plus you have to ask yourself, is Liriano really ready to jump back into the starter role? If he is, he is probably more valuable there then in the closer role.

How about Anthony Slama? Would you put a rookie driver in your Corvette? I think not.

So, there you have it, the Twins have a good bullpen but they have a missing piece and it is a key missing piece. The Twins don’t have the right spare part to fix their engine without going outside the organization. It won’t be a cheap fix and you have to give up something to get something but the Twins have no choice. The Twins $90+ million car has headed full speed into 2010 and right now the brakes are not working, they need to find the missing link that can slam on the brakes on the opposing team in the 9th inning of those close games when the Twins have the lead. The Twins cannot afford NOT to find a closer, and soon.