Tag: Jason Kubel

How they will finish in 2012

 

Mr. Einstein

With the 2012 baseball season just around the corner, if you don’t count that stupid two game series that the A’s and Mariners played and split in Japan, it is time for us here in Twins Trivia to look into the crystal ball and see what is in store for us this season. They say that baseball is a simple game, all you need to do is hit the ball, pitch the ball and pick-up the ball but I thought I would run it by Mr. Einstein just to be sure.

East

 1. Tampa Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
 

West

1. Los Angeles Angels 
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A’s
 

Central

1. Detroit Tigers (91-71)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80)
3. Minnesota Twins (78-84)
4. Kansas City Royals (76-86)
5. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
 

The Detroit Tigers are far and way the best team in the division and should be up by 10 games at the All-Star break and have a cake walk the rest of the way. However; having picked the Tigers to win the AL Central, the team is certainly not without its problems. The Tigers defense if they continue to pursue going down the Miguel Cabrera at 3B path will be atrocious but I see manager Jim Leyland changing that plan before he gets out of April. But even after Leyland addresses the 3B situation, the Bengals still have defense problems at 1B, 2B, SS, and LF. It will be fun to watch the Tigers hit but when they are in the field it will be a totally different story. The Tiger bullpen is solid although there is no way in the world that closer Jose Valverde has another year in 2012 like he had in 2011. The Tigers other major issue is starting pitching where they have a reigning Cy Young award winner in Justin Verlander followed by Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and the Tigers just announced that Drew Smyly won the last starting spot.  Who is Drew Smyly? Fister, and Scherzer are workable starters on a pennant contender but Porcello and who ever the Tigers have slotted for number 5 will not cut the mustard and the Tigers are going to have to make some moves to fill those holes.

The Cleveland Indians continue to improve albeit very slowly and the team has worked hard to try to improve its starting rotation that includes Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jiminez, Derek Lowe, Jeanmar Gomez, and Josh Tomlin. Twins cast-off Kevin Slowey could not make this starting rotation. Not a great starting rotation, but I have seen a lot worse. The Indians offense lost Gardy Sizemore to injury once again but Sizemore’s best days are now behind him anyway so that is not as great a loss as some may think. On offense the Indians need outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to bounce back after an injury plagued 2011, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to continue to show improvement after a breakout season last year, 2B Jason Kipnis to show that he is for real, Michael Brantley needs to prove he is a legit lead-off hitter, Lonnie Chisenhall to hit to his potential and to earn his way back as the Indians starting 3B, and for 35-year-old Travis Hafner to stay healthy and hit like he can as the teams DH.

I like the Kansas City Royals a lot because of the nice young players they have like Eric Hosmer at 1B, former 3B and now outfielder Alex Gordon, Billy Butler as the DH, Alcides Escobar at SS, and 3B Mike Moustakas. The Royals took a serious blow to the gut when closer Jokaim Soria went down with an elbow issue and will require TJ surgery but maybe the Royals dodged a bullet if free agent signee Jonathan Broxton can bounce back and become a workable closer once again, a long shot to be sure but still, a chance. The Royals starting pitching is what really needs to take a step forward if this team is to become a contender. Luke Hochevar anchors the rotation but he still young and is slowly improving. Jonathan Sanchez who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants has some potential and could become their number 2 starter. Veteran Bruce Chen continues to get his 10-12 wins each year although I don’t know how and Felipe Paulino slides in as the fourth starter although he could miss the first part of the season. Paulino has control issues but he can also strikeout some hitters. The fifth spot is open and the Royals would like to see youngster Danny Duffy lock up that spot. The Royals need to find a way to improve their starting pitching before they can be considered a serious challenger.

I pick the Chicago White Sox to finish in the Central Division basement. The mighty whities are a high-priced team that has under performed and is old to boot. White Sox GM Ken Williams has shown over the last few years that he doesn’t have a clue on how to be a big league general manager and the sooner he is fired the sooner the White Sox can once again can become a contender. The White Sox let Ozzie Guillen go as manager and hired the totally inexperienced former 3B Robin Ventura to manage this motley crew. The Sox have some proven starting pitching in John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jake Peavy but Peavy is always hurt and you can’t count on him to be a solid contributor. Former Twins pitcher Philip Humber was a pleasant surprise for the Sox last season but he remains unproven. The Sox have moved the young fireballing Chris Sale out of the pen and into a starters role so his transition will be closely watched. Since the whities traded their closer Sergio Santos to Toronto during the off-season they are in need of a closer and it appears that Matt Thornton will start the season in that role but indications are that Addison Reed will take over the closers role before the 2012 season comes to a merciful end for the Chicago White Sox.

That bring us to the Minnesota Twins who unfortunately will finish third in this weak AL Central with a 78-84 record. 78 wins does not sound like much but it is a nice 15 win improvement after last years dismal showing. The Twins fired GM Bill Smith and put former GM Terry Ryan back in the driver’s seat but Ryan is driving a Chevy and Twins management is selling it as a BMW and this past off-season instead of going into a rebuilding mode after losing Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and several others, the team decided to try to plug some leaks, drop their payroll by $15 million and see if they can regain their 2010 form. They signed 38 career utility player Jamey Carroll to be their starting shortstop, they signed Josh Willingham to provide some power as a corner outfielder and catcher Ryan Doumit to provide some pop as the back-up catcher. Last season catcher Joe Mauer had a horrible season hitting .287 and playing in just 82 games due to some mysterious injuries that still have not been explained but Mauer has worked hard this spring and you have to think he is back to being the All-Star catcher he should be. 1B Justin Morneau was even worse, hitting .227 with four home runs and playing in 69 games due to a variety of injuries but his major issue was the concussion he suffered in Toronto the previous season. Morneau started spring training playing 1B but midway through spring training he was hitting under .100 and the team decided that Morneau would be the primary DH this season although he would still see time at 1B but I would expect him playing first base less than 30 times this season. Morneau caught fire with his bat but still seldom makes an appearance at 1B in Florida. The Twins need Morneau to hit like he can and to stay healthy but that might be asking a lot based on what Justin has shown the past few years. The second baseman, often injured Alexi Casilla is in a make it or break it season and he has to prove he can play 150+ games, something he has never done. He has already missing games in spring training due to a sore knee. The leader of the Twins “fun bunch” is 3B Danny Valencia who is coming off a “sophomore slump” season in 2011 both with his bat and in the field. Valencia has to start to field at 3B like he cares and to hit more for average versus trying to be that dead pull hitter that he showed in 2011. A little humility by Valencia wouldn’t hurt either, Danny is not God’s gift to baseball even though he seems to think he is. Denard Span has to prove that he is over his own concussion and neck woes and that the Twins can count on him to play day in and day out in centerfield because he has a lot of ground to cover when Willingham is in left and Trevor Plouffe or Ryan Doumit is playing in right. Right field is probably a platoon between Plouffe, Doumit and maybe even Ben Revere who has a throwing arm like a pop gun. The Twins starting pitching is shaky at best and that is kind of funny because going back just a few years the Twins thought their starting pitching was a strength and some bloggers thought we had too much starting pitching but that was just before Kyle Gibson was deemed to need TJ surgery and Alex Wimmers had no clue where home plate was. Francisco Liriano has had a super spring and he is in his contract year but no Twins starter has shown as much “Jekyll and Hyde” personality as Francisco has. One day the man pitches a no-hitter and the next time out he can’t string two good innings together. Scott Baker can be really good but you can also count on Scott Baker to hit the DL at least once each season and this year he will start the season on the DL. I find Baker an interesting pitcher because he makes his living pitching high in the strike zone. What drives me crazy with Baker is that the man never shows any emotion. Get mad, slam your glove down, anything, just show me you are alive Scott. Carl Pavano is one of those guys that goes out and throws 200 innings and gives up 2225 hits but keeps his team in the game. This coming from a guy that had a huge contract with the Yankees between 2005-2008 and was hurt year after year while pitching in just 26 games. Nick Blackburn owns the Twins number 4 starting spot and the sinkerballing right hander is starting his fifth season in the Twins starting rotation. Blackburn, a pitch to contact guy has started at least 26 games each season although his innings pitched have decreased the last two years from a career high of 205 in 2009. Blackburn is one of those guys that gives hitters a comfortable collar but then there are other games when he gives up hit after hit. Blackburn has pitched a few big games for the Twins and has seems to rise to the occasion. The last spot in the starting rotation belongs to newly acquired Jason Marquis a 33-year-old right hander beginning his 13 big league season and is a lot like Pavano, gives up a lot of hits but keeps his team deep into games. Not a stellar rotation by any means but when they pitch well, the Twins have a chance as Gardy might tell you. How about the relievers? Who knows, the Twins resigned Matt Capps to be their closer after Joe Nathan hit the trail for Texas. Capps is not one of the elite closers in the league but does a team that is destined to finish under .500 need an elite closer? I don’t think so and I think Capps can be a good character on this team. Minnesota native lefty Glen Perkins had a breakout season both on the pitching front and out of Gardy’s doghouse. Perkins was outstanding last season and was the Twins best pitcher most of the year. Brian Duensing moves to the bullpen after a disappointing year in the starting rotation in 2011 and he should do a good job there based on what he has shown there previously. Matt Maloney and Jared Burton, both former Redlegs appear to have earned bullpen jobs. Anthony Swarzak is the long guy in the pen and sometimes starter and that role seems to fit him well. The final bullpen spot is still to be determined with Jeff Gray and Alex Burnett still battling it out as spring training winds down. Kyle Waldrop was in the running for the final spot too but he ended up taking a spot on the DL bench.

Ryan did what he could to get more offense on the field but in the process he sacrificed his defense, particularly in the outfield. The fact that the Twins will not have Justin Morneau at 1B will also hurt the other infielders who are used to having Morneau scoop their bad throws out of the dirt. The Twins have numerous holes but they do have some young players that are knocking on the door like Chris Parmelee at 1B, Brian Dozier at SS, Joe Benson in the outfield, Liam Hendriks as a starter and Carlos Gutierrez in the pen. It is starting pitching that the Twins crave but outside of Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers, their does not appear to be a lot there. If the youngsters do indeed turn out to be big leaguers, Ryan will have a core to build on. Deeper in the minors they have some players that could turn out to be stars in a few years. We as fans sometimes fall in love with our teams players and hate to see them go but baseball is like life, you have to keep moving forward and change is necessary, if you stand still,  it means that someone is gaining on you. Change is good, we need to embrace change. Going into 2011 Gardy and Smith talked about the need to add speed, no one talks about speed this year….. I wrote all this and didn’t mention Tsuyoshi Nishioka until just now, see how easy it is to forget?

When the smoke clears, Twins fans should be dancing on Target Plaza if this team can somehow play .500 ball, I unfortunately don’t see it happening in 2012. I just hope that the Twins play some exciting baseball the way it should be played and hopefully fans will still keep coming to Target Field to watch them.

Division winners – Rays, Tigers, Angels

Wild Cards – Yankees, Rangers

Tampa Rays move on to represent the American League in the World Series

Keep an eye on those “at bats”

Now that the Twins and everyone else have started their exhibition season, we fans once again have box scores to read so we can track how our favorite players are doing. We all know that what a hitter does in spring training games means very little in the grand scheme of things but the fact that a player is playing and getting at bats can mean a lot. The hitters need to shake off the rust and get their timing down. I don’t think it is so much how well the hitter is hitting as it is getting time in the batters box facing live pitching and getting at bats. I am not saying that you should not be concerned if a hitter goes 1 for 25 but at the same time you should not get too excited if a players hits 12 home runs in spring games either.

I think Gardy, the Twins and most of the other baseball teams have fallen into some bad habits over the last few years and maybe go too easy on the veteran players as far as getting their at bats in and have kind of left it up to the individual players to decide when they should play in these exhibition games. How often have you gone to a spring training game and find that the visiting team has only brought 2 or 3 regulars and one of them is probably a pitcher. This is an accepted practice now days and that is a bunch of crap in my humble opinion and it is not good for the fans or the players. Just because a player has been in the big leagues for a few years does not mean that he needs less at bats to get regular season ready. It all comes down to the fact that they don’t want to take those long bus rides, that is a bunch of hoey. Most of the games are within a couple of hours driving distance and yet todays players would rather stay back at camp than take that bus trip and get their 2 or 3 at bats in a game situation. If game situations are not that important, then why are exhibition games played at all, why don’t team just stay home save the money and play intra squad games? I have no problem with a player not playing if he is injured but at the same time that these guys are not playing they say they are healthy and working on preparing for the regular season. If you look back over the spring stats from the last few years you will see that the most at bats that a player usually will get during the spring is around 65 and most of the regular players average between 50-60 at bats in the spring games. Yes,  I know injuries come into play, but let’s take a look at what last years at bat counts were for the Twins regulars:

Mauer – appeared in 8 games and had 20 at bats (15 and 45 in 2010)

Morneau – appeared in 11 games and had 33 at bats (17 and 50 in 2010)

Nishioka – appeared in 20 games and had 58 at bats

Casilla – appeared in 22 games and had 50 at bats

Valencia – appeared in 24 games and had 65 at bats

Cuddyer – appeared in 8 games and had 21 at bats

Span – appeared in 21 games and had 62 at bats

Young – appeared in 18 games and had 48 at bats

Kubel – appeared in 22 games and had 53 at bats

I will be interested to watch the games this spring and see how many at bats the Twins starting line-up actually gets. If you want to follow the Twins spring stats, you can find them here.

Can Twins bounce back in 2012? What does history tell us?

Our Minnesota Twins are coming off an atrocious 2011 where the team finished 63-99, a full 32 games behind the AL Central Division winning Detroit Tigers and in the process posting the second worst record in all of baseball. But 2011 is behind us now and we look forward to spring and a brand new season of baseball which hopefully will see the Twins back in winning form. In just a little over a month, Twins players from all over the globe will start to congregate in Ft. Myers, Florida to get into baseball shape which I think really means that they will get in a little stretching, jog a little, catch up on the off-season gossip and  start throwing the baseball around and take a few swings with those shiny new bats they just received during the off-season. When a bad season of baseball ends, there is always “next year” and that next year is just about upon us.

Long before baseball was played, back sometime between 1688-1744 the English poet Alexander Pope said “hope springs eternal in the human breast” and no truer words could be said about how baseball fans look at their favorite baseball teams. Forgotten are the numerous injuries, be they real or perceived, the dropped balls, the hitters that couldn’t run out a ground ball, the runners that had brain farts and stood there and watched as the hit and run unfolded in front of them, the fielders that couldn’t throw straight, the pitchers that keep hitting opponent bats, the perplexed pitching coach who wondered why his pitchers couldn’t find home plate even though it was always in the same spot, the manager who had to make up numerous line-ups each day because he didn’t know which of his players were in the mood to play that day, and of course the owner who was left to wonder what happened to his $113 million.

The injuries that plagued the team in 2011 are hopefully healed and with another year of experience under their belts, we all hope the Twins are back and playing baseball the way that Twins fans of today expect. We are not interested in seeing the Twins play ball as they did say between 1971-1986 when they never won more than 85 games and finished as high as second only once, we expect to see a winning team on the field or at least a team that is playing like they want to win versus the 2011 bunch that quit early and often.

So, what does history tell us will happen to the Twins in 2012? I want you to keep reading, but the bottom line is that while miracles can happen, it sure does not look good. The Twins were 31 games worse in 2011 than they were in 2010, 31 games, only once in franchise history had a Senators/Twins team played so much worse than they had the previous season and those were the Washington Senators of 1934 who finished the season 33 games worse with a 66-86 mark after advancing to the World Series in 1933 with a 99-53 record. The following season (1935) they won 67 games, one more than the year before.

So how have Senators and Twins teams bounced back from such dismal seasons? The best the Senators could ever do was improve by 27 games back between 1911-1912 and the best the Twins have done since 1961 is improve by 23 games as the 1965 Twins did when they won 102 games coming off a 79 win season in 1964.

But let’s look at more modern times so we will look at the seasons between 1997 and 2011 because it probably makes for a fairer comparison based on free agency and player movement of today. In the last 15 seasons here is what has happened in the AL Central Division.

The Kansas City Royals worst drop-off was in 2004 when the team finished 25 games worse than they did in 2003. The following season, 2005, the Royals finished 2 games worse. The best improvement that the Royals have shown their fans was when they finished 21 games better in 2003 than they had shown in 2002.

The Chicago White Sox worst drop-off was in 2007 when the team finished 18 games worse than they did in 2006. The following season, 2008, the mighty whitey’s finished 17 games better. The best improvement that the White Sox fans have seen was when they finished 20 games better in 2000 than they had shown in 1999.

The Cleveland Indians worst drop-off was in 2002 when the team finished 17 games worse than they did in 2001. The following season, 2003, the Indians finished 6 games worse. The best improvement that the Indians fans have seen was when they finished 18 games better in 2007 than they had shown in 2006.

The Detroit Tigers worst drop-off was 14 games and it happened twice, once between 1997 and 1998 and again from 2007 to 2008. The following season in 1999 the team improved by 4 games and in 2009 the team improved by 12 games. The best improvement that the Tigers have seen was when they finished 29 games better in 2004 (to a 72-90 season) than they had shown in 2003, but, 2003 was the season the Tigers put up a pathetic 43-119 record.

That brings us to the Twins, whose worst drop-off was 31 games in 2011 from their 2010 season. The biggest improvement the Twins have shown during this 15 year period was in 2001 (TK’s last season as manager) when they finished 16 games better than what they showed us in 2000. In the past 15 years the Twins have improved their record from the previous season 8 times for an average improvement in games won over the previous season of 8 games. On the minus side their record has gotten worse from the previous season 7 times for an average of -11.29 but that is obviously skewed by the big -31 of 2011. If the 2012 Twins could match their biggest improvement of say 16 games as they did in 2001, that still only moves the Twins 2012 record up to 79-83. The Twins have to improve by 18 games just to reach the .500 mark and would have to improve by 27 games to reach the 90 win mark. It does not look promising.

The Twins have improved their previous years mark by 18 games or better on 4 occassions. The feat was accomplished by the 1991 team that improved by 21 games, the 1969 team that improved by 18 games, the 1965 team that improved by 23 games and the 1962 team that was 21 games better than the 1961 team. Four times in 50 seasons, not good odds for sure and remember, an 18 game improvement only takes the team to an 81-81 record, or .500 baseball. The team has lost Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey and a number of bit players but then again, they lost 99 games when they had these guys. I know they added Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and brought back Matt Capps but how many wins will these guys put in the “W” column?

What this team needs in order to play respectable baseball is for Joe Mauer to step back to earth from the “Twilight Zone” that he was in most of last year and catch 130 games and play 1B and DH for 10-15 more. I see no reason why this can’t happen, Mauer should come out of the gate madder than hell and show everyone that 2011 was a fluke. I will believe that when I see it. The next issue is Justin Morneau, here I am not nearly as optimistic. Justin was just a shell of himself in 2011 and I worry that Justin Morneau’s baseball career is coming to a premature end. That would be so sad as Justin should have many more years in him as a productive Twins first baseman. I hope I am totally wrong about Morneau, but if I was a betting man I would say “show me you still got it” Justin. I hope that Danny Valencia thought long and hard about his baseball career since the 2011 season ended because if he continues to play in 2012 like he did in 2011, he will be receiving his fan mail in Rochester come the middle of May. Valencia might not be the .311 hitter he was in 2010 but he sure better not be the .246 hitter he was in 2011 either. A little more work with the glove wouldn’t hurt Danny either. The Twins outfield is a mess, Willingham is a left fielder and the Twins need him to play right because Ben Revere can’t throw out his grandmother. So that forces the team to play Revere in center which is OK in itself but that means you need to move Span to right field but Span says he wants to play center. In my humble opinion, any outfield with Revere and Span both playing at the same time is a bad thing. I am not sure how things are going to shake out but come the second half of 2012, Joe Benson will be playing in the Twins outfield some where. The Twins signed Jamey Carroll to play short but the man has never had a full-time job in 10 big league seasons and he will be 38 before the Twins open the exhibition season. Is that a move that a contending team makes? We can hope that Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes back to life and show us that he really is a professional baseball player……come on, really, there is a chance. Alexi Casilla at 2B is an enigma but I still have hope for this 27-year-old with parts of six big league season under his belt. The bullpen is a couple of sharp knives short of a complete set and the starting staff of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, and Jason Marquis would make any manager nervous.

So here it is, you make up your mind, can the Twins compete or will they have to fight and scratch like hell just to reach the .500 mark? Me? Come October, I think we should all be dancing on Target Plaza celebrating manager Ron Gardenhire’s second manager of the year award with a cold drink in our hand if this collection of Twins can win half of their games in 2012. However; if this this team wins 70 or fewer games in 2012, manager Ron Gardenhire may be looking for a job.

Jason Kubel moves on too

Jason Kubel

The Twins lost another free agent when outfielder/DH Jason Kubel, 29, signed on with the Arizona Diamondbacks for two years and $15 million with an option for 2014. The left-handed Kubel has been in the Twins organization since he was drafted by Minnesota in the 12th round of the 2000 amateur draft. Kubel has played in 753 games for the Twins over seven seasons between 2004 – 2011. Jason sat out the entire 2005 season due to a broken ankle. Kubel’s best season was in 2009 when he hit .300 with 28 home runs and 103 RBI’s. Like may other Twins, Kubel was injured in 2011 and appeared in only 99 games. Kubel made $5.25 million in 2011 and was not a fan of Target Field so I think moving on was a top priority for Jason.

If you check some of the D-Back blogs like Call to the Pen, this is not being looked on very well by some Arizona fans who feel that the D-Backs over paid for Kubel and feel that the Arizonans already have a solid outfield trio in Jason Upton, Chris Young, and Gerardo Parra. So it will be interesting to see how Kubel will fit in, then again maybe Arizona just signed Kubel to move him elsewhere in a deal. Parra seems to be the most likely to losing playing time with Kubel’s arrival in the desert.

I liked Kubel but I saw him primarily as a DH and did not like him as an outfielder and I would not have liked to see Minnesota pay him $7.5 million either. It looks like Kubel and Michael Cuddyer will be playing against each other on a regular basis now since they are both in the NL West.Good luck in Arizona Jason.

Twins reportedly ready to sign Josh Willingham

ESPN has reported that the Twins are about to sign 32-year-old free agent outfielder Josh Willingham. Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune is reporting the deal is for 3 years and $21 million. Willingham pocketed $6 million this past season in Oakland. The right-handed hitting Willingham has been in the majors for 8 seasons playing for the Marlins from 2004 – 2008, the Nationals in 2009 -2010 and the Oakland A’s this past season. Willingham hit a career high of 29 home runs for the A’s and knocked in 98 but also hit a career low .246 last season with 150 strikeouts but he did post a .361 OBP.

If this report of Willingham agreeing to a deal with the Twins is accurate, it would appear that the Twins are not going to meet Michael Cuddyer’s reported request for $30 million for 3 years as recent reports have the Twins offering Cuddyer $24 or $25 million. There were reports all day today that Willingham wanted to get a deal done in the next 24-48 hours and that kind of put he pressure on the Twins to do something as they did not want to find themselves in a position of getting neither Cuddyer nor Willingham.

Willingham is not great defensively so the logical position for him is left field but Willingham did play 35 games in right for the Nationals back in 2009. If Willingham is indeed in left, it appears to me the Twins will play Span in center and probably Doumit in right with Revere filling in center and left as needed. The Twins could go with Revere in center and Span in right but I just don’t see that happening too often. Plouffe is probably the fifth outfielder playing left and right field as needed.

Michael Cuddyer

I am thinking that Cuddyer may have over played his hand if he wanted to come back to Minnesota and was hoping that the Twins would raise their offer. The Twins called his bluff and now Cuddyer may have to settle for what he can get from the Rockies but there are now reports that the Marlins might be interested too. The Twins picked up a little more power with Willingham but they lose a good player with more position flexibility. It all goes back to losing 99 games, changes need to be made. The Twins also save $3-5 million over 3 years by going with Willingham versus Cuddyer. In the mean time, former Twins outfielder and DH Jason Kubel sits out there waiting for his turn to come up.

UPDATE December 14 – The Minnesota Twins have finally made the Josh Willingham deal official — a three-year, $21 million contract is a done deal.

Money can’t buy us happiness

The Twins opening day payroll in 2011 was about $113 million and the Twins finished last in the AL Central with a 63-99 record. Now the Twins are saying the payroll in 2012 will be around the $100 million mark but my guess is that it will be a bit lower than that, maybe closer to $95 million. It is easy to say that the Twins have to spend their way out of fifth place in the Central division but money alone is not the answer. Sure the Twins have a beautiful new ballpark but the Twins are far from playing with the big boys like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and the Cubs and their huge revenue numbers, even the Chicago White Sox had more in the revenue stream than the Twins did in 2010 according to Forbes Magazine. I thought it would be interesting to look back over the last 10 years and see how the AL Central division compared from a salary perspective and here is what I found using the Cot’s Baseball Contract site as my source. The chart below is in millions of dollars.

Year Twins Indians Tigers White Sox Royals Average Div. Win
2011 $113.23 $49.42 $106.95 $127.78 $38.17 $87.11 Tigers
2010 $97.65 $61.45 $133.99 $103.08 $74.98 $94.23 Twins
2009 $65.29 $81.57 $115.08 $96.06 $70.51 $85.70 Twins
2008 $56.93 $78.97 $137.68 $121.18 $58.24 $90.60 White Sox
2007 $71.43 $61.67 $95.18 $108.67 $67.16 $80.82 Indians
2006 $63.39 $56.03 $82.61 $102.75 $47.29 $70.41 Twins
2005 $56.18 $41.50 $69.09 $75.17 $36.88 $55.76 White Sox
2004 $53.58 $34.31 $46.83 $65.21 $47.60 $49.51 Twins
2003 $55.50 $48.58 $49.16 $51.01 $40.51 $48.95 Twins
2002 $40.22 $78.90 $55.04 $57.05 $47.25 $55.69 Twins
TOTAL $673.40 $592.40 $891.61 $907.96 $528.59

Since 2002, only one AL Central division team has advanced to the World Series and that was the 2005 Chicago White Sox team that beat the Houston Astros 4 games to zip. I know, you can’t win if you don’t spend money but it is all about how you use the money you do have. I guess I have not been paying too much attention to the dollars spent in the Central division and I was more than a little surprised to see that the Mighty Whitey’s have spent over $100 million in five of the last six years and that the Tigers have spent in excess of $106 million four years in a row. I find it interesting that the Twins spent more than the division average five times and less than the division average five times. You can find more Twins historical salary information on our Twins Salaries page.

It will be interesting to see how Mr. Ryan distributes the resources at his disposal in the next few weeks as the Hot Stove League heats up with the GM meetings taking place in a few days. I like free agents Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel as much as the next Twins fan but the Twins were 63-99 for a reason last year and changes obviously need to take place. I have no issue bringing back Cuddyer (although I don’t see it happening) for one year as insurance to cover for Morneau at 1B or to play RF but I don’t pay him more than $10 million. If you aren’t making changes than you are standing still and those moans and groans you heard at Target Field this past summer were the sounds of the other Central division teams blowing past us. It is easy to get complacent in baseball and think that all you need to do is throw your glove on the field and you will win without putting in the up-front work starting in Spring Training. I think a number of Twins players felt someone owed them the division title and 2011 was a hard lesson for everyone.

The Twins and the Disabled List (DL)

The Twins had a miserable season in 2011 and many blame the Twins slide into the AL central basement on the number of injuries that the Twins endured. But looking at the numbers, injuries alone do not explain the Twins dismal play. The Twins came out of spring training in excellent health but it didn’t take long before players started dropping. It was like a contagious disease all season long, one injury after another. How do you explain it? No one can I think, just a matter of bad luck, sometimes, maybe it was brought on by not knowing how to play your position properly as in the case of Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Later in the season, after the Twins were beaten down and out of the race it seemed like some players just gave up and found it easier to sit on the bench than to get out on the field. The Joe Mauer mystery still remains unanswered. It appears to me that the Twins have several players that do not want to go to the gate unless they are feeling 100%, hell, no one feels 100% everyday. In the real world there are people going to work day in and day out regardless of how they feel for a whole slew of reasons. These players need to understand that they are letting their teammates, fans, and themselves down when they let a minor injury keep them from taking the field. I felt bad for Gardy because he had to make excuses for these malingerers. I wonder what it will take to get some of these guys to “suck it up” and play some baseball? But you think the 2011 Twins had injury problems, check out some of these sad but apparently true injuries that occurred to the boys of summer in a piece that was published back in September of 1992. You may find some former Twins on the list.

So what is the MLB DL and how does it work? In simple terms it works like this. A player may be placed on either the 15-day or the 60-day disabled list, usually depending on the severity or the expected recovery time of the injury. A player may be shifted from the 15-day to the 60-day DL at any time, but not vice-versa. The player may not rejoin the team until 15 or 60 days has elapsed; however, a player’s time on the DL may exceed the specified number of days. Something the Twins know very well. In addition, if a player is sent to the 60-day DL after August 1, he may not return to the active roster for the rest of that season.

The 15-day DL does not count the player on the active roster (comprising the 25-man roster until September 1), whereas the 60-day DL does not require the player to be counted on either the team’s active roster or its 40-man roster; however, a team’s 40-man roster must be full in order for the option of a placement on the 60-day disabled list to be available.

In 2011 MLB instituted a change to the DL policy where as a new 7 day DL was put in place specifically for concussions and brain damage. MLB also put in place a paternity leave policy this season where a team can replace a player who is an expectant father on the roster for 1-3 days in order for them to attend the birth of their child.

Until the late 1980s, there were 10-day and 21-day disabled lists. The number of players who could be placed on each list was limited, and there was much less flexibility about when they could return to action. Back then, players with major league contracts were not allowed to go to the minor leagues for rehabilitation.

But getting back to the Twins situation, I took a look at the Twins injuries for the last 10 seasons 2002-2011 and here is what I found.

Year Record Finish DL Moves DL Days Out for the season
2002 94-67 1st 14 700 Duvall (P)
2003 90-72 1st 10 430 none
2004 92-70 1st 14 593 Mays (P)
2005 83-79 3rd 11 578 Kubel (OF), Balfour (P)
2006 96-66 1st 10 403 none
2007 79-83 3rd 15 995* Liriano (P), Machado (P)
2008 88-75 2nd 11 487 none
2009 87-76 1st 12 551 Bonser (P), Neshek (P)
2010 94-68 1st 18 760 Condrey (P), Nathan (P)
2011 63-99 5th 27 785 none

 * = In addition to Liriano and Machado being out for the season, Perkins, Crain, White, and Rabe all spent 95 or more days on the DL

The table above seems to indicate that the Twins usually average between 10-15 DL moves in a season but the last two seasons have seen a jump in the number of DL moves to 18 and 27 respectively.

From a trainers perspective, like the rest of the Twins organization, changes are few and far between. Up until 2011, the Twins had a head trainer, an assistant trainer and a strength and conditioning coach but in 2011 they added a second assistant trainer.

2002 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2003 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2004 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2005 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2006 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2007 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2008 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2009 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2010 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2011 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Tony Leo (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)

 

Popple and Castellano each have served as strength and conditioning coach for 5 years. When Popple was the SCC, the Twins averaged 541 DL days per season, during the last 5 years under Castellano, the Twins have averaged 716 DL days. coincidence? Maybe. Of course you can’t compare apples to apples here because the players change but still, 175 DL days difference.

We all have an opinion on what Twins we think are always hurt and always on the DL but the table below will show you over the last 10 years who has been on the DL most frequently. The table covers the years of 2002 through 2011 and players that have two or fewer DL trips are not listed.

Player DL appearances Season with the Twins
Nick Punto 9 7
Joe Mauer 6 8
Francisco Liriano 5 7
Kevin Slowey 5 5
Scott Baker 4 7
Alexi Casilla 4 6
Michael Cuddyer 4 11
Justin Morneau 4 9
Glenn Perkins 4 6
Grant Balfour 3 4
Lew Ford 3 5
Torii Hunter 3 11
Corey Koskie 3 7
Jose Mijares 3 4
Pat Neshek 3 5
Luis Rivas 3 6
Shannon Stewart 3 4
Rondell White 3 2

GM Smith and Gardy need to make some moves

GM Bill Smith

April 30, 2011 – Damn! I am more upset at watching the Twins lose to Kansas City and Tampa the last few days than the Twins are, what is up with that? After watching the Twins lose again last night at Kansas City, I am convinced the time has come to make some moves. There is an old saying that says that the first thing you need to do when you find yourself in a hole is to STOP DIGGING! This team needs a major shake-up, a wake-up call, but I am not sure exactly what should be done first, there are so many things to do. The Twins need to find a shortstop; Casilla has had his chances time and time again and not delivered, time to move on. I don’t think Plouffe is the answer either but you might as well give him his shot. The bullpen is a mess, no one knows their roles and how long can the Twins baby Nathan? Put him in a 7th or 8th inning role and get on with it. Get some stability in the bullpen again. Liriano will never be the ace pitcher everyone has envisioned, he has the skills but he does not have the demeanor or the ability to use his skills. You have two choices here, turn him into a reliever or trade him at a diminished value. Liriano doesn’t want to be a reliever? Tough, he isn’t pitching like a big league starter right now; he might be just what they need in the bullpen. Put Slowey in the rotation to replace Liriano and give Blackburn a couple more starts to see what he can do. If he can’t get on the straight and narrow, then call up Gibson and plug him in as a starter. As much as I hate to do it, the Twins should play Cuddyer at 2B until Nishioka gets back from his broken leg. An outfield of Delmon, Span, and Kubel works for me or keep Tosoni in the outfield and bat Kubel at DH. If Repko doesn’t start hitting soon I send him down and keep Tosoni as the 4th outfielder. Forget about bringing up Ben Revere, what good is an outfield with both Span and Revere in it? Catching? You just have to make do with Butera and Holm until Mauer can get healthy again. I have to wonder what the real story is with Joe Mauer. Justin Morneau has been just plain abysmal, where is the clutch hitter we used to know? I sure hope that Morneau does not go through with what happened to Jimmie Hall after he was beaned. Valencia? Sure he leads the team in RBI’s but he could be doing so much better. What can’t I shake the feeling that Valencia is developing an attitude and thinks he is a star? Maybe it is all that time he spent hanging around A-rod? Cuddyer? Maybe the pressure of playing for a new contract is getting to him, he has not hit anywhere like he should be hitting, right now he looks like a 7 or 8 hitter at best.

You think I am too harsh here in my thoughts? Come on now, the team is 9-16 after 25 games and 15% of the games are behind them. Only three teams in baseball have won as few as 9 games, the Astros, the Padres and the Twins. I don’t think the Twins are this bad but so far they have done nothing to make you think they can get better in the near future and get back in the Central Division race where they are already 8 games back and the calendar still shows it is April. The team continues to score at a pace of 3 runs a game being our scored 128 to 80, that will not get you many wins with this pitching staff. Right or wrong, Twins management has to be thinking that Joe Vavre might be the easiest scapegoat and send him packing and bring in some fresh blood as a hitting coach. Oh, and let’s not forget our third base coach Steve Liddle in all of this. His approach to sending and stopping runners at 3B hasn’t been much to write home about either.

Ron Gardenhire

When I watch this team play I see no life, no one is having fun out there, it is just a job. At the end of the game they have their heads down as they slowly shuffle down to the clubhouse. Where is the fight in this team? The team plays like they think all they have to do is show up and they will win, the times have changed boys, the times have changed, look at the AL Central standings, it reads Royals, Indians, Tigers, White Sox and the Twins. When is someone going to kick, scream, yell and cuss that this crap has got to stop and get out on the field and lead by example by getting a clutch hit or putting an opposing batter on his butt? Do the Twins have a leader? I have not seen one, but then again Gardy and Bill Smith have not shown much leadership either.

Questions everywhere

February 23, 2011 – I checked on the Twins on Monday and I stayed for about 1.5 hours but I walked away kind of bored. The position players still had not reported and the pitchers and catchers were going through their early spring routines. A few minor leaguers were taking some infield practice with TK, nothing extraordinary going on anywhere. Nishioka was as normal to this point, out on a field by himself, doing a little (and I mean little) running if you don’t count his side-kicks who apparently are his translator, nutritionist, and work-out guru. Everyone was looking for Justin Morneau and he was nowhere to be seen but he did eventually hold a news conference later in the day.

The Twins have so many questions as spring training begins, more questions than Alex Trebek has on Jeopardy. What questions? Let me list a few of them for you that come to mind right off the bat, not necessarily in order of importance. 2011 will be an interesting season at the ballpark, you can bet your bippy on it.

  •  Will Justin Morneau be able to come back from his concussion?
  • Can Joe Nathan become the same closer he was before he had TJ surgery?
  • Joe Mauer hasn’t even caught a bullpen session and he already has knee issues.
  • How will Francisco Liriano react to the trade rumors? He is not exactly a Rock of Gibraltar to begin with.
  • Can Alexi Casilla hold down a full-time middle infield spot?
  • Can Tsuyoshi Nishioka play in the majors this season and hold down a middle infield job?
  • Can Danny Valencia improve on his 2010 season without his head getting too big?
  • Can Denard Span bounce back from a poor 2010 season?
  • Can Rick Anderson make silk out of a sows ear in the bullpen?
  • Can Delmon Young repeat his breakout season?
  • Can Jim Thome last another season before his back gives out for the final time?
  • Can Jason Kubel bounce back and play the way he is capable of playing?
  • Will any Twins pitcher show some backbone and make some of those opposing batters dance in the batter’s box once in a blue moon?
  • When are the Twins batters going to quit crying that it is too hard to hit home runs at Target Field?
  • Last year the back drop at Target Field was repainted, after the season the trees have been or will soon be removed. What will Twins batters ask for next? A roof to keep the sun out of their eyes?
  • Who didn’t measure up last year in Gardy’s eyes? Scott Ullger as his third base coach or Steve Liddle as his bench coach? They swapped jobs going into 2011.
  • Can Glenn Perkins and Pat Neshek stay out of Gardy’s doghouse this year? I think they each have one strike left before they are sent packing.
  • Will Gardy actually let his players steal some bases this year?
  • Can the Twins ever get over the “Yankee” hump?

Tigers and Twins history goes back a ways!

September 1, 2010 – With the Tigers in town and Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel hit by Tiger pitcher Phil Coke and Tiger catcher Avila being hit by Twins hurler Brian Duensing, it brings back memories of the big Twins/Tigers brawl of May 14, 1982. The Twins were in the midst of their worst season ever from a loss perspective as they would finish 1982 with a 60-102 record under manager Billy Gardner. When they arrived in Detroit, they were 2-10 in the month of May and they immediately proceeded to lose the first of a four game series 6-2 to Jack Morris on Thursday, May 13th and with that defeat they dropped into the cellar of the AL West Division where they would stay for the rest of the season.

The following day the Twins sent Pete Redfern (2-4) to the mound against Tigers starter Dan Petry (3-2). The Twins jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead in the second inning on a couple of singles, a walk and an error. The Tigers came back with one in the bottom of the third and held the Twins scoreless in the fourth. In their half of the fourth the Tigers catcher Lance Parrish doubled and was sacrificed to third by Lou Whitaker. Shortstop Mark DeJohn, who had a total of four hits in his 24 game major league career singled in Parrish to knot the game at 2-2. The next batter was outfielder Chet Lemon and Redfern hit him on the wrist, Lemon charged the mound and the battle ensued. The game was halted for 20 minutes as the umpires sorted things out. When the smoke cleared Lemon was ejected and Redfern had to leave the game with a spike wound to the right foot. Bobby Castillo replaced Redfern and retired the next two batters. The game remained scoreless through the ninth and went into extra innings. In the 10th inning Dave Rozema held the Twins scoreless and Ron Davis did the same to the Tigers in their home half of the 10th. Rozema then retired the Twins 1-2-3 in the 11th inning and Ron Davis took the mound in the bottom of the 11th. Allan Trammell flew out to center for the first out but Lynn Jones singled and then Davis brushed Tiger third baseman Enos Cabell back, words were exchanged and Cabell went after Davis. During the melee Tigers pitcher Dave Rozema suffered ligament damage to his left knee and was carried off the field on a stretcher and eventually required surgery. Twins players stated that Rozema hurt himself trying to kick Twins third baseman John Castino as you can see on the attached video (since taken down) but the Tigers claimed that Rozema hurt himself coming out of the dugout to participate in the brawl. Both Cabell and Davis were ejected and the Twins brought in Terry Felton to pitch. Felton dispatched Tiger Tom Brookens for the second out of the inning but Kirk Gibson hit a two run walk-off homer and the Tigers were the 6-4 victors. The Twins lost the next two games in Detroit, were swept in the four game series and won only one more game that month.

There was some video of the fight but MLB Advanced Media had it taken down. Towards the end of the video you could see Tiger pitcher Dave Rozema come flying in from the left hand side of the screen and try to kick Twins player John Castino. You can see a second short video with Tigers manager Sparky Anderson expressing his view of the situation by clicking here.