Tag: Indians

How well have AL Central teams drafted in the last 10 years

The 2012 first-year player draft will take place June 4-6 and begins with the first round and compensation round A on Monday, June 4, at 7 p.m. ET. The first night of the event will be broadcast live on MLB Network and streamed live on MLB.com. The Twins will have the second over-all pick in what is widely being reported as lower in quality than what has been available in the last few years. There appears to be no clear-cut choice for the number 1 overall pick this year, no Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper. It will still be interesting to see who is picked first and who the Twins will pick next. A lot of the reports have Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton as the best player available but yet most  of the so called experts agree that the Houston Astros who have the first pick will pass on Buxton. So what do the Twins do if Buxton is available when it comes their time to pick? I just can’t see the Twins passing on Buxton if he is available, no matter how much the Twins may need pitching. You can never have too many 5-tool players and if you do indeed have to many outfielders in a few years, you can always make a deal. It will be interesting to see what the Twins will do.

But this piece is not about what will happen in 2012, it is about what has transpired in the draft from 2002 through 2011 for the teams in the AL Central Division. Over the 10 years I am covering here, each team has drafted about 500 players give or take depending on compensatory picks and picks lost due to free agent signings. The chart I have put together shows how many players drafted by the Central division teams have made it to the big leagues regardless if it is with the team that drafted them or if they made it to the bigs with another team. Keep in mind too that I am not taking into consideration the fact that some of these players chose not to see with the original team that may have drafted them. For example, Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum was picked by the Cubs in 2003 in round 48 and by the Indians in round 42 in 2005 and chose not to sign until he was picked in rond 1 and 10th over all by the Giants in 2006. Keep in mind too that I do not differentiate between appearing in 1 big league game or 500 big league games, all I am tracking here is how many of each Central Division draft picks made it to the Show by year drafted as of May 20, 2012.

P = pitchers, H = hitters

YEAR TIGERS WSOX INDIANS ROYALS TWINS
2011 0 0 0 0 0
2010 2 P, 0 H 2 P, 0 H 1 P, 0 H 0 0
2009 3 P, 0 H 0 1 P, 1 H 2 P, 0 H 0 P, 1 H
2008 3 P, 2 H 1 P, 2 H 1 P, 2 H 0 P, 2 H 0
2007 3 P, 2 H 3 P, 0 H 1 P, 1 H 2 P, 1 H 0 P, 1 H
2006 3 P, 2 H 3 P, 0 H 4 P, 1 H 3 P, 1 H 3 P, 5 H
2005 4 P, 8 H 4 P, 3 H 3 P, 5 H 0 P, 1 H 5 P, 3 H
2004 4 P, 2 H 6 P, 3 H 3 P, 2 H 3 P, 1 H 4 P, 3 H
2003 5 P, 2 H 1 P, 2 H 2 P, 4 H 2 P, 5 H 3 P, 3 H
2002 3 P, 4 H 10 P, 2 H 3 P, 1 H 3 P, 4 H 4 P, 5 H
TOTALS 52 – 30 P, 22 H 42 – 30 P, 12 H 36 – 19 P, 17 H 30 – 15 P, 15 H 40 – 19 P, 21 H

It appears that the Twins either have not drafted well in recent years or it is taking longer for the players they draft to get to the big league level. No pitcher drafted by the Twins between 2007 – 2011 has reached the majors and only 2 hitters picked in that time frame have made a big league debut and they would be Ben Revere picked in 2007 and Brian Dozier chosen in 2009. During that same time frame the Tigers have had 15 players (11 pitchers and 4 hitters) debut, the White Sox have had 8 players (6 pitchers and 2 hitters) debut, the Indians have had 8 players (4 pitchers and 4 hitters) debut and the Royals have had 7 players (4 pitchers and 3 hitters) debut in the big leagues.

Other points I find interesting is that 12 players (4 pitchers and 8 hitters) from the Detroit Tigers 2005 draft have reached the big league level and that 12 players (10 pitchers and 2 hitters) from the 2002 draft by the White Sox have reached the promised land. The best the Twins have done is 9 players from their 2002 draft. This chart kind of shows how few players that are drafted ever reach the big leagues at all and how long it does take for those that do make it. It was fun doing the research on a cool wet day when the Twins were getting trounced 16-4 in Milwaukee, I hope that you enjoyed it.

According to Elias

Derek Lowe threw a six-hit shutout in the Indians’ 5-0 victory over the Twins in Minnesota yesterday. Lowe’s gem snapped a streak of 214 consecutive starts without pitching a shutout. That was the fourth longest active streak entering Tuesday’s action, behind Freddy Garcia (247), Kevin Millwood (238) and Jeff Suppan (218). Prior to Tuesday, Lowe’s last shutout came on August 31, 2005 against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Only three players other than Lowe that were in the starting lineup for that game are currently on a major-league roster: Jerry Hairston Jr., Jayson Werth and Jason Repko (currently on the disabled list). Source: Elias

Where do starting pitchers come from?

The Twins starting pitching situation this year is in dire straights. Coming into the 2012 season the Twins starting pitchers were expected to be Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis. Not a great group of starters by any means but you had to think they would keep the Twins near the .500 mark. But things don’t always go as planned and after Monday’s game the Twins have played 35 games and their record stands at 10-25, the worst record in all of baseball.

The Twins starters are rated as last in the American League with a 7-20 record and a 6.30 ERA. The starters are pitching just slightly over 5 innings per start with no complete games. Opposing batters are hitting .315 off the Twins starting staff and the the next closest starting rotation is the Yankees starting staff and opponents are hitting them at a .282 clip, a huge difference. On the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago White Sox opponents are only hitting .226 against the Mighty Whities starters. Twins starters have given up 234 hits in just 187 innings. If you combine the hits and the walks, the Twins starting rotation has a 1.55 WHIP. Twins starters have also given up the most runs, most home runs and they have struck out the least amount of opposing hitters.

So why is Minnesota starters pitching so bad as compared to the AL teams? Where did the Twins starting pitchers come from? I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the starting staffs of the AL teams and see what we come up with.

New York Yankees

 1. CC Sabathia (31) – signed by the Yankees as a free agent in December 2008. Was originally a 1st round pick, 20th over all of the Cleveland Indians in 1998 and made his major league debut in 2001.

2. Ivan Nova (25) – signed by the Yankees as an amateur free agent in 2004, drafted by the San Diego Padres as a Rule 5 pick in December 2008 and returned to the Yankees in 2009 and made his major league debut in 2010.

3. Hiroki Kuroda (37) – signed by the Yankees as a free agent in January 2012. Was originally signed by the Dodgers as a free agent in December 2007 and made his major league debut in 2008.

4. Phil Hughes (26) – drafted by Yankees in round 1 and 23 over all in 2004 and made his big league debut in 2007.

5. Andy Pettite (39) – drafted by the Yankees in round 22 of the 1990 draft and made big league debut in 1995.

 Boston Red Sox

1. Jon Lester (28) – drafted by Boston in the 2nd round of the 2002 amatuer free draft and debuted in 2006.

2. Clay Buchholz (27) – drafted by Boston in the 1st round and 42 pick over all in the 2005 amatuer free agent draft and made his big league debut in 2007.

3. Felix Doubront (24) – signed by Boston as an amateur free agent in May 2005 and made his big league debut in  2010.

4. Josh Beckett (31) – acquired via trade. Originally a 1st round pick and 2nd over all by the Florida Marlins in 1999. Made big league debut in 2001.

5. Daniel Bard (27) – drafted by Boston in 1st round and 28 pick over all in 2006 and made big league debut in 2009.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Jake Arrieta (26) – Orioles 5th round pick in 2007 and made big league debut in 2010.

2. Tommy Hunter (25) – acquired in a trade and was originally a 1st round pick and 54th over all of the Texas Rangers in the 2007 amateur free agent draft and made his big league debut in 2008.

3. Jason Hammel (29) – acquired in a trade and was originally a 10th round pick by Tampa in 2002. Made his big league debut in 2006.

4. Wei-Yin Chen (26) – signed as a free agent in January 2012 and made his big league debut in 2012.

5. Brian Matusz (25) – drafted by Orioles in 1st round and 4th over all in 2008 and made his big league debut in 2009.

Tampa Rays

1. Jamie Shields (30) – drafted in round 16 by Tampa in 2000 and made his big league debut in  2006.

2. David Price (26) – drafted 1st over all in the 2007 draft by Tampa. Big league debut in 2008.

3. Jeremy Hellickson (25) – A Tampa 4th round pick in the 2005 draft. Made big league debut in 2010.

4. Matt Moore (22) – Tampa’s 8th round pick in 2007 and made his big league debut in 2011.

5. Jeff Nieman (29) – Tampa’s 1st round pick and 4th over all in 2004. Made big league debut in 2008.

Toronto Blue Jays

1. Henderson Alvarez (22) – signed by Toronto as an amateur free agent in 2006. Big leaqgue debut in 2011.

2. Ricky Romero (27) – 1st round pick by Toronto and 6th over all in 2005. Big league debut in 2009.

3. Brandon Morrow (27) – acquired in trade from Seattle who picked Morrow in the 1st round and 5th over all in 2006. Big league debut in 2007.

4. Kyle Drabek (24) – acquired in trade from Philly where he was their 1st round pick and 8th over all in 2006. Big league debut in 2010.

5. Drew Hutchinson (21) – Toronto 15th round pick in 2009 and made big league debut in 2012.

Texas Rangers

1. Derek Holland (25) – Texas 25th round pick in 2006, big league debut in 2009.

2. Colby Lewis (32) – Texas 1st round pick and 38th over all in 1999. Big league debut in 2002.

3. Yu Darvish (25) – purchased from Japan and signed as free agent in January 2012. Debuted same year.

4. Matt Harrison (26) – acquired in trade from Atlanta. He was the Braves 3rd round pick in 2003. Made debut in majors in 2008.

5. Neftali Feliz (24) – acquired in trade from Atlanta. He was signed by the Braves as an amateur free agent in 2005 and made big league debut in 2009.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

1. Jered Weaver (29) – Angels 1st round pick and 12th over all in 2004. Big league debut in 2006.

2. Dan Haren (31) – acquired via trade. Was a St. Louis Cardinals 2nd round pick in 2001. Big league debut in 2003.

3. CJ Wilson (31) – signed as a free agent in December 2011. Rangers 5th round pick in 2001 and made big league debut in 2005.

4. Ervin Santana (29) – signed by Angels as an amateur free agent in 2000 and made big league debut in 2005.

5. Jerome Williams (30) – signed as free agent in June 2011. Originally picked in round 1 and 39th over all by San Francisco Giants in 1999. Big league debut in 2003.

Oakland A’s

1. Bartolo Colon (39) – signed as free agent in January 2012. Originally signed by the Cleveland Indians as amateur free agent in 1993. Big league debut in 1997.

2. Brandon McCarthy (28) – signed as free agent in 2010. Originally picked by the White Sox in round 17 in 2002. Big league debut in 2005.

3. Tommy Milone (25) – acquired via a trade with Washington. Was originally a Nats 10th round pick in 2008. Big league debut in 2011.

4. Jarrod Parker ar(23) – acquired in a trade with Arizona. Was originally drafted by D-Backs in 1st round and 9th over all in 2007. Big league debut in 2011.

5. Tyson Ross (25) – drafted by A’s in 2nd round 2008. Big league debut in 2010.

Seattle Mariners

1.  Felix Hernandez (26) – signed by Seattle as an amateur free agent in 2002 and made big league debut in 2005.

2. Jason Vargas (29) – acquired in a 3 team trade in 2008. Was originally a Florida Marlins 4th round pick in 2004. Big league debut in 2005.

3. Kevin Millwood (37) – signed as free agent in January 2012. Originally a Braves 11th round pick in 1993. Big league debut in 1997.

4. Blake Beavan (23) – acquired in a trade from Texas. Originally a Rangers 1st round pick and 17th over all in 2007. Big league debut in 2011.

5. Hector Noesi (25) – acquired in trade with the Yankees. Originally signed by Yankees in 2004 as an amateur free agent. Big league debut in 2011.

Kansas City Royals

1. Bruce Chen (35) – signed with KC as a free agent in 2009. Was originally an Atlanta Braves amateur free signee in 1993. Big league debut in 1998.

2. Luke Hochevar (28) – was drafted by Royals in 1st round and 1st over all in 2006. Big league debut in 2007.

3. Danny Duffy (23) – Royals 3rd round pick in 2007. Big league debut in 2011.

4. Jonathan Sanchez (29) – Acquired in trade with the Giants. Originally was the Giants 27 round pick in 2004 and made big league debut in 2006.

5. Felipe Paulino (28) – Purchased from Colorado Rockies in May 2011. Was originally signed by the Astros as an amateur free agent in 2001. Big league debut in 2007.

Detroit Tigers

1. Justin Verlander (27) – was the Tigers 1st round pick and 2nd over all in the 2004 draft. He made his big league debut in 2005.

2. Rick Porcello (23) – was the Tigers 1st round pick and 27th over all in 2007. Made his big league debut in 2009.

3. Max Scherzer (27) – acquired in trade with Arizona. Was originally drafted in 1st round and 11th over all by Arizona in 2006. Made his big league debut in 2008.

4. Doug Fister (28) – acquired in trade with Seattle. Was originally picked by the Mariners in round 7 of the 2006 draft. Made MLB debut in 2009.

5. Drew Smyly (23) – was the Tigers 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft. Made big league debut in 2012.

Cleveland Indians

1. Justin Masterson (27) – acquired in a 2009 trade with the Red Sox. Was originally a 2nd round pick by the Red Sox in 2006 and made big league debut in 2008.

2. Derek Lowe (39) – acquired in a 2011 trade with  the Atlanta Braves. Was originally picked in the 8th round of the 1991 draft and debuted in the big leagues in 1997.

3. Ubaldo Jiminez (28) – acquired in a trade with Colorado. Originally signed as a amateur free agent back in 2001 with the Rockies. Made big league debut in 2006.

4. Josh Tomlin (27) – was drafted by the Indians in the 19th round of the 2006 draft. Made big league debut in 2010.

5. Jeanmar Gomez (24) – signed as an amateur free agent with the Indians in 2005. Made his big league debut in 2010.

Chicago White Sox

1. Jake Peavy (31) – acquired in a trade with the Padres. Originally picked by San Diego in round 15 of the 1999 draft. Big league debut in 2002.

2. John Danks (27) – acquired in a trade with Texas. Was originally a 1st round pick and 9th over all in 2003. Big league debut in 2007.

3. Gavin Floyd (29) – acquired in a trade with the Phillies. Was originally a Phillies 1st round pick and 4th over all in 2001. Made big league debut in 2004.

4. Chris Sale (23) – drafted by the White Sox in the 1st round and 13th pick over all in 2010 draft. Made big league debut just 2 months after being drafted and after pitching in just 11 minor league games.

5. Philip Humber (29) – selected off waivers from Oakland in January 2011. Originally drafted in 2004 in the 1st round and 3rd over all pick by the New York Mets. Made big leage debut in 2006.

Minnesota Twins

1. Francisco Liriano (28) – acquired in trade with San Francisco in November 2003. Was originally signed for the Giants as an amateur free agent in 2000. Made big league debut in 2005.

2. Carl Pavano (36) – acquired in a trade with the Cleveland Indians in 2009. Originally drafted in the 13th round by the Red Sox in 1994. Made big league debut in 1998.

3. Nick Blackburn (30) – drafted by the Twins in round 29 of the 2001 draft. Made big league debut in 2007.

4. Jason Marquis (33) – signed by Twins as a free agent in December 2011. Was originally an Atlanta Braves 1st round pick and 35th over all in 1996. Made big leaague debut in 2006.

5. Liam Hendriks (23) – signed by the Twins as an amateur free agent in 2007 and made his big league debut in 2011.

6. Anthony Swarzak (26) – drafted by the Twins in round 2 of the 2004 amateur draft and made his big league debut in 2009.

7. Scott Diamond (25) – A Rule 5 pick by the Twins from the Atlanta Braves in December 2010. Was originally signed by the Braves as an amateur free agent in 2007. Made big league debut in 2011.

8. PJ Walters (27) – Signed with the Twins as a free agent in December 2011. Was originally a St. Louis Cardinals 11th round pick in 2006 and made big league debut in 2009.

9. Scott Baker (30) – out for the 2012 season with TJ surgery. Was a Twins 2nd round pick in 2003 and made big league debut in 2005.

The Twins current starting rotation of Pavano, Marquis, Blackburn, Diamond and Walters is made up of  one 1st round pick, an 11th rounder, a 13th rounder, a 29th rounder and an amateur free agent.

If you look at the rest of the current 5 man starting rotations for the 13 other AL teams you have a total of 65 pitchers and here is how they break down.

25 of the 65 (38%) were first round picks

12 of the 65 (18%) were signed as amateur free agents

5 of the 65 (8%) were 2nd round picks

3 of the 65 (5%) were Japanese baseball free agents

2 of the 65 (3%) were 3rd round picks

2 of the 65 (3%) were 4th round picks

2 of the 65 (3%) were 5th round picks

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 7th round pick

2 of the 65 (3%) were 8th round picks

2 of the 65 (3%) were 10th round picks

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 11th round pick

2 of the 65 (3%) were 15th round picks

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 16th round pick

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 17th round pick

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 19th round pick

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 22nd round pick

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 25th round pick

1 of the 65 (2%) was a 27th round pick

The AL team with the most first round picks in the starting rotation is the Chicago White Sox with four starters in Danks, Floyd, Humber and Sale and the Cleveland Indians are the only team with no first rounders in their starting rotation. But just because you are a first round pick does not mean that you will make the teams starting rotation that drafted you as only 13 of the 25 or only 52% of the first round picks end up starting for the teams that drafted them in round 1. Of course many other 1st rounders either do not make the starting rotation or do not make it to the big leagues at all.

Since 1972 the Minnesota Twins have drafted 27 pitchers in the first round, 8 out of high school and 19 out of college. Three of their picks did not sign with the team. RHP Dick Ruthevan was picked in round 1 and 8 over all in 1972 but did not sign and went on to start 332 big league games. RHP Tim Belcher was the Twins 1st round and the first over all pick in 1983 but he did not sign and he went on to start 373 big league games. The Twins drafted RHP Derek Parks in round 1 and 10th over all in 1986 and turned him into a catcher. The Twins picked RHP Aaron Heilman in round 1 and 31st over all in 200o but Heilman did not sign and went on to start 25 big league games pitching maninly in relief. This may be hard to believe but since the draft started in 1972, the most career starts that any Twins 1st round pick has ever had in a Twins uniform is 45 and that pitcher was Willie Banks who the Twins picked in round 1 and number 3 over all in 1987. Banks started 45 games with a 16-17 record before being traded to the Chicago Cubs for pitcher Dave Stevens and catcher Matt Walbeck. The next higest number of starts for a Twins 1st rounder is 44 and that belongs to Minnesota native Glen Perkins who is currently a Twins top reliever. Only 10 of 27 first round pitchers picked by Minnesota in the first round ever started a game in a Twins uniform. Only 5 of 27 Twins first rounders have started 100 or more career big league games and they are Dick Ruthven, Tim Belcher, Todd Ritchie, Mark Redman, and Matt Garza. 15 of the 27 Twins first round pitchers have never started a single big league game.

With that kind of a record in taking pitchers in the first round, I have to wonder if the Twins should even try. Then again, you could argue that they are due to get a good one…..

Dozier and Liriano

Brian Dozier

Shortstop James Brian Dozier was called up from Rochester yesterday and made his major league debut against the Angels going 1 for 4 with a run scored. The soon to be 25 year-old (May 15) was drafted by the Twins in the 8th round of the June 2009 amateur draft and Dozier has a .305 batting average in 4 minor league seasons (345 games) and has not hit below .274 while playing 2B, SS, and 3B. It will be interesting to see if Dozier who only has 28 games of AAA experience can hold on to the shortstop role at Target Field. Dozier had a great spring and many fans thought that Dozier earned the Twins starting shortstop job in Fort Myers but GM Terry Ryan felt that Dozier needed some AAA seasoning. Although Jamey Carroll, 38 has played a decent shortstop so far this season, he is only hitting .212 and the team is off to a terrible start at 7-21 and some changes need to be made to see if anything can be done to salvage the season before the Twins go into a full sell mode and turn to a total rebuilding effort. Dozier is not going to turn the Twins around on his own but hopefully he can play a small role in getting the Twins moving.

Francisco Liriano

The Twins lost again last night and are now 7-21 for the season and 10 games behind the division leading Cleveland Indians. I sure didn’t think I would be saying “division leading Cleveland Indians” this season but the Detroit Tigers are struggling as they come out of the starting gate and they are playing just .500 ball but I think they will warm up soon and put the Indians and all the other AL Central teams in their rear view mirror. The Tigers have their share of pitching miseries but not like the cellar dwelling Twins do. The Twins sent Francisco Liriano out to the mound again last night and once again Liriano let the team and himself down. Liraino threw 90 pitches in 5 innings while giving up 5 hits, 3 walks and 4 earned runs and even with this line he actually lowered his seasonal ERA to 9.45. Liraino had one decent inning last night and other than that looked like the same old Liriano. I just don’t know how the Twins can continue to send Liriano out there every fifth day when he is pitching as bad as he is. Liriano brings down the entire team everytime he walks out to the mound. Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson have tried everything including skipping a start with Francisco but to no avail. After last nights game Gardy was quoted as saying, “what can we do, we just need to send him out there”. I for one have seen enough of Liraino this season in a starting role, it is time to move Liriano to the bullpen where he can have some chance of success albeit in a relief role. You have to do something, you can’t pay Liriano the kind of money he is getting and have him under perform as badly as he has todate. The team is 7-21 for pete’s sake, what have you got to lose? Send Liraiano to the bullpen now and move Brian Duensing back into the starting rotation. Duensing is no Warren Spahn but he has to be better than Liriano and you still have that lefty in the bullpen that you want. Maybe this is not the way to build Liriano’s confidence but you have 24 other players on the team that shouldn’t be punished every fifth day when you send Liriano out to the mound.

How Twins have fared on Opening Day

When the Minnesota Twins open the 2012 season in Baltimore on Friday, April 6 it will mark the 32nd time in 52 season openers that the team has opened their baseball season as road warriors. As a cold weather team, the Twins have only played the seasons first game at Met Stadium five times (63,65,66,71,81) and fifteen times at the Metrodome. In their short history at Target Field the Twins have never opened the season at home. The Twins have not charged out of the gate on a winning note over the years winning only won 24 and losing 27 season opening games. You can make a strong case that their first ever game as Minnesota Twins on April 11, 1961 in Yankee Stadium when Pedro Ramos shut out the New Yorks Yankees 6-0 on just 3 hits was their greatest season opener ever. The most frequest opening day opponent for the Twins has been the Oakland A’s. The Twins have played the Oakland A’s on opening day ten times (the last time in 1990), eight times in Oakland and twice at home (at the Met in 1981 and at the Metrodome in 1987) and the opening day series between these two teams is tied at five game each. The Twins have drawn the Seattle Mariners as opening day opponents four times, twice at home and twice on the road and the Twins have yet to beat the Mariners on opening day.

Pitcher Brad Radke has taken the mound for the Twins on opening day nine times including seven in a row between 1999 and 2005. Radke’s record on opening day was 4 wins, 2 losses, and 3 no decisions. Kent Hrbek has started 12 games at 1B on opening day, the most games that any Twins player has played at any position on opening day. A number of players have started opening day at their position nine times but Hrbek is still the leader in that category.

The Twins have opened the season in Baltimore only once before and that was back on April 11, 1967 in Memorial Stadium when Jim Kaat took the mound for the Twins but before he retired a single batter, the Orioles plated four runs and held on for a 6-3 win. The Twins only other season opener against the Baltimore Orioles occurred on April 2, 2007 at the Metrodome when the Twins behind starter Johan Sanatana and home runs from Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau won 7-4.

Here is who the Twins have faced and how they have fared on opening day.

TEAM WON LOST HOME AWAY YEARS
Yankees 2 2 2 2 61,65,88,89
Indians 2 1 2 1 63,64,04
Orioles 1 1 1 1 67,07
Royals 2 1 0 3 69,74,02
White Sox 1 1 1 1 70,93
Oakland A’s 5 5 2 8 72,73,77,79,80,81,86,87,90,91
Rangers 1 1 0 2 75,76
Mariners 0 4 2 2 78,82,05,09
Tigers 4 2 4 2 83,84,96,97,01,03
Red Sox 0 1 0 1 95
Blue Jays 1 3 1 3 98,99,06,11
Rays 0 1 1 0 00
LA Angels 1 1 1 1 08,10
Cal. Angels 1 1 1 1 85,94
Brewers 1 1 1 1 71,92
Senators 1 0 0 1 68
KC A’s 1 1 1 1 62,66
TOTALS 24 27 20 31

How they will finish in 2012

 

Mr. Einstein

With the 2012 baseball season just around the corner, if you don’t count that stupid two game series that the A’s and Mariners played and split in Japan, it is time for us here in Twins Trivia to look into the crystal ball and see what is in store for us this season. They say that baseball is a simple game, all you need to do is hit the ball, pitch the ball and pick-up the ball but I thought I would run it by Mr. Einstein just to be sure.

East

 1. Tampa Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
 

West

1. Los Angeles Angels 
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A’s
 

Central

1. Detroit Tigers (91-71)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80)
3. Minnesota Twins (78-84)
4. Kansas City Royals (76-86)
5. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
 

The Detroit Tigers are far and way the best team in the division and should be up by 10 games at the All-Star break and have a cake walk the rest of the way. However; having picked the Tigers to win the AL Central, the team is certainly not without its problems. The Tigers defense if they continue to pursue going down the Miguel Cabrera at 3B path will be atrocious but I see manager Jim Leyland changing that plan before he gets out of April. But even after Leyland addresses the 3B situation, the Bengals still have defense problems at 1B, 2B, SS, and LF. It will be fun to watch the Tigers hit but when they are in the field it will be a totally different story. The Tiger bullpen is solid although there is no way in the world that closer Jose Valverde has another year in 2012 like he had in 2011. The Tigers other major issue is starting pitching where they have a reigning Cy Young award winner in Justin Verlander followed by Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and the Tigers just announced that Drew Smyly won the last starting spot.  Who is Drew Smyly? Fister, and Scherzer are workable starters on a pennant contender but Porcello and who ever the Tigers have slotted for number 5 will not cut the mustard and the Tigers are going to have to make some moves to fill those holes.

The Cleveland Indians continue to improve albeit very slowly and the team has worked hard to try to improve its starting rotation that includes Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jiminez, Derek Lowe, Jeanmar Gomez, and Josh Tomlin. Twins cast-off Kevin Slowey could not make this starting rotation. Not a great starting rotation, but I have seen a lot worse. The Indians offense lost Gardy Sizemore to injury once again but Sizemore’s best days are now behind him anyway so that is not as great a loss as some may think. On offense the Indians need outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to bounce back after an injury plagued 2011, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to continue to show improvement after a breakout season last year, 2B Jason Kipnis to show that he is for real, Michael Brantley needs to prove he is a legit lead-off hitter, Lonnie Chisenhall to hit to his potential and to earn his way back as the Indians starting 3B, and for 35-year-old Travis Hafner to stay healthy and hit like he can as the teams DH.

I like the Kansas City Royals a lot because of the nice young players they have like Eric Hosmer at 1B, former 3B and now outfielder Alex Gordon, Billy Butler as the DH, Alcides Escobar at SS, and 3B Mike Moustakas. The Royals took a serious blow to the gut when closer Jokaim Soria went down with an elbow issue and will require TJ surgery but maybe the Royals dodged a bullet if free agent signee Jonathan Broxton can bounce back and become a workable closer once again, a long shot to be sure but still, a chance. The Royals starting pitching is what really needs to take a step forward if this team is to become a contender. Luke Hochevar anchors the rotation but he still young and is slowly improving. Jonathan Sanchez who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants has some potential and could become their number 2 starter. Veteran Bruce Chen continues to get his 10-12 wins each year although I don’t know how and Felipe Paulino slides in as the fourth starter although he could miss the first part of the season. Paulino has control issues but he can also strikeout some hitters. The fifth spot is open and the Royals would like to see youngster Danny Duffy lock up that spot. The Royals need to find a way to improve their starting pitching before they can be considered a serious challenger.

I pick the Chicago White Sox to finish in the Central Division basement. The mighty whities are a high-priced team that has under performed and is old to boot. White Sox GM Ken Williams has shown over the last few years that he doesn’t have a clue on how to be a big league general manager and the sooner he is fired the sooner the White Sox can once again can become a contender. The White Sox let Ozzie Guillen go as manager and hired the totally inexperienced former 3B Robin Ventura to manage this motley crew. The Sox have some proven starting pitching in John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jake Peavy but Peavy is always hurt and you can’t count on him to be a solid contributor. Former Twins pitcher Philip Humber was a pleasant surprise for the Sox last season but he remains unproven. The Sox have moved the young fireballing Chris Sale out of the pen and into a starters role so his transition will be closely watched. Since the whities traded their closer Sergio Santos to Toronto during the off-season they are in need of a closer and it appears that Matt Thornton will start the season in that role but indications are that Addison Reed will take over the closers role before the 2012 season comes to a merciful end for the Chicago White Sox.

That bring us to the Minnesota Twins who unfortunately will finish third in this weak AL Central with a 78-84 record. 78 wins does not sound like much but it is a nice 15 win improvement after last years dismal showing. The Twins fired GM Bill Smith and put former GM Terry Ryan back in the driver’s seat but Ryan is driving a Chevy and Twins management is selling it as a BMW and this past off-season instead of going into a rebuilding mode after losing Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and several others, the team decided to try to plug some leaks, drop their payroll by $15 million and see if they can regain their 2010 form. They signed 38 career utility player Jamey Carroll to be their starting shortstop, they signed Josh Willingham to provide some power as a corner outfielder and catcher Ryan Doumit to provide some pop as the back-up catcher. Last season catcher Joe Mauer had a horrible season hitting .287 and playing in just 82 games due to some mysterious injuries that still have not been explained but Mauer has worked hard this spring and you have to think he is back to being the All-Star catcher he should be. 1B Justin Morneau was even worse, hitting .227 with four home runs and playing in 69 games due to a variety of injuries but his major issue was the concussion he suffered in Toronto the previous season. Morneau started spring training playing 1B but midway through spring training he was hitting under .100 and the team decided that Morneau would be the primary DH this season although he would still see time at 1B but I would expect him playing first base less than 30 times this season. Morneau caught fire with his bat but still seldom makes an appearance at 1B in Florida. The Twins need Morneau to hit like he can and to stay healthy but that might be asking a lot based on what Justin has shown the past few years. The second baseman, often injured Alexi Casilla is in a make it or break it season and he has to prove he can play 150+ games, something he has never done. He has already missing games in spring training due to a sore knee. The leader of the Twins “fun bunch” is 3B Danny Valencia who is coming off a “sophomore slump” season in 2011 both with his bat and in the field. Valencia has to start to field at 3B like he cares and to hit more for average versus trying to be that dead pull hitter that he showed in 2011. A little humility by Valencia wouldn’t hurt either, Danny is not God’s gift to baseball even though he seems to think he is. Denard Span has to prove that he is over his own concussion and neck woes and that the Twins can count on him to play day in and day out in centerfield because he has a lot of ground to cover when Willingham is in left and Trevor Plouffe or Ryan Doumit is playing in right. Right field is probably a platoon between Plouffe, Doumit and maybe even Ben Revere who has a throwing arm like a pop gun. The Twins starting pitching is shaky at best and that is kind of funny because going back just a few years the Twins thought their starting pitching was a strength and some bloggers thought we had too much starting pitching but that was just before Kyle Gibson was deemed to need TJ surgery and Alex Wimmers had no clue where home plate was. Francisco Liriano has had a super spring and he is in his contract year but no Twins starter has shown as much “Jekyll and Hyde” personality as Francisco has. One day the man pitches a no-hitter and the next time out he can’t string two good innings together. Scott Baker can be really good but you can also count on Scott Baker to hit the DL at least once each season and this year he will start the season on the DL. I find Baker an interesting pitcher because he makes his living pitching high in the strike zone. What drives me crazy with Baker is that the man never shows any emotion. Get mad, slam your glove down, anything, just show me you are alive Scott. Carl Pavano is one of those guys that goes out and throws 200 innings and gives up 2225 hits but keeps his team in the game. This coming from a guy that had a huge contract with the Yankees between 2005-2008 and was hurt year after year while pitching in just 26 games. Nick Blackburn owns the Twins number 4 starting spot and the sinkerballing right hander is starting his fifth season in the Twins starting rotation. Blackburn, a pitch to contact guy has started at least 26 games each season although his innings pitched have decreased the last two years from a career high of 205 in 2009. Blackburn is one of those guys that gives hitters a comfortable collar but then there are other games when he gives up hit after hit. Blackburn has pitched a few big games for the Twins and has seems to rise to the occasion. The last spot in the starting rotation belongs to newly acquired Jason Marquis a 33-year-old right hander beginning his 13 big league season and is a lot like Pavano, gives up a lot of hits but keeps his team deep into games. Not a stellar rotation by any means but when they pitch well, the Twins have a chance as Gardy might tell you. How about the relievers? Who knows, the Twins resigned Matt Capps to be their closer after Joe Nathan hit the trail for Texas. Capps is not one of the elite closers in the league but does a team that is destined to finish under .500 need an elite closer? I don’t think so and I think Capps can be a good character on this team. Minnesota native lefty Glen Perkins had a breakout season both on the pitching front and out of Gardy’s doghouse. Perkins was outstanding last season and was the Twins best pitcher most of the year. Brian Duensing moves to the bullpen after a disappointing year in the starting rotation in 2011 and he should do a good job there based on what he has shown there previously. Matt Maloney and Jared Burton, both former Redlegs appear to have earned bullpen jobs. Anthony Swarzak is the long guy in the pen and sometimes starter and that role seems to fit him well. The final bullpen spot is still to be determined with Jeff Gray and Alex Burnett still battling it out as spring training winds down. Kyle Waldrop was in the running for the final spot too but he ended up taking a spot on the DL bench.

Ryan did what he could to get more offense on the field but in the process he sacrificed his defense, particularly in the outfield. The fact that the Twins will not have Justin Morneau at 1B will also hurt the other infielders who are used to having Morneau scoop their bad throws out of the dirt. The Twins have numerous holes but they do have some young players that are knocking on the door like Chris Parmelee at 1B, Brian Dozier at SS, Joe Benson in the outfield, Liam Hendriks as a starter and Carlos Gutierrez in the pen. It is starting pitching that the Twins crave but outside of Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers, their does not appear to be a lot there. If the youngsters do indeed turn out to be big leaguers, Ryan will have a core to build on. Deeper in the minors they have some players that could turn out to be stars in a few years. We as fans sometimes fall in love with our teams players and hate to see them go but baseball is like life, you have to keep moving forward and change is necessary, if you stand still,  it means that someone is gaining on you. Change is good, we need to embrace change. Going into 2011 Gardy and Smith talked about the need to add speed, no one talks about speed this year….. I wrote all this and didn’t mention Tsuyoshi Nishioka until just now, see how easy it is to forget?

When the smoke clears, Twins fans should be dancing on Target Plaza if this team can somehow play .500 ball, I unfortunately don’t see it happening in 2012. I just hope that the Twins play some exciting baseball the way it should be played and hopefully fans will still keep coming to Target Field to watch them.

Division winners – Rays, Tigers, Angels

Wild Cards – Yankees, Rangers

Tampa Rays move on to represent the American League in the World Series

This Day in Twins History – March 6, 2006

(Photo by: Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Six years ago today, Minnesota Twins star outfielder and Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett passed away at the age of 45 from a stroke he suffered a day earlier. The youngest of nine children born into poverty in a Chicago housing project, Kirby Puckett was the Minnesota Twins first round pick (and third over all) in the 1982 amateur draft. After just 224 minor league games in Elizabethton (rookie), Visalia (A ball), and Toledo (AAA ball) Kirby was called up by Minnesota and made his big league debut on May 8, 1984 against the California Angels in Anaheim Stadium and he never played in the minors again. In his rookie season in 557 at bats, Kirby had only had 12 doubles, 5 triples, 0 home runs, and 16 walks. This lack of power was rare but even more unusual for a player that two years later hit 31 home runs with a .537 slugging percentage.

Puckett played for 12 years in a Minnesota Twins uniform hitting .318 in 1,783 games while hitting 207 home runs and knocking in 1,085 more. Though his numbers were not exceptional, Puckett was voted into Cooperstown on the first ballot in 2001. His respect and enthusiasm for the game factored in as much his .318 average, 1989 batting title, six Gold Gloves, 10 All-Star game appearances and two championship rings. The man known simply as “Puck” was immensely popular with baseball fans everywhere. Fans loved his style, especially the high leg kick that preceded his swing. Twins public address announcer Bob Casey, who became a close friend, introduced him with vigor before every at-bat, “KIR-beeeeeeeeee PUCK-it.” “I wore one uniform in my career and I’m proud to say that,” Puckett once said.

On September 28, 1995 in the bottom of the first inning in a game at the Metrodome, Puckett was hit by a pitch from Cleveland Indians starter Dennis Martinez that broke his jaw in what turned out to be his last at-bat of the 1995 season and his last at bat in a major league game. Puckett woke up one morning the following spring and couldn’t see out of his right eye. It was eventually diagnosed as glaucoma, forcing him to call it quits that July. It was a sad ending to a brilliant career.

After his career ended prematurely, Puckett tried to remain upbeat but his personal life began to deteriorate. Shortly after his induction to Cooperstown, his then-wife, Tonya, accused him of threatening to kill her during an argument – he denied it – and described to police a history of violence and infidelity. In 2003, he was cleared of all charges from an alleged sexual assault of a woman at a Twin Cities restaurant. He kept a low profile after the trial and eventually moved to Arizona. His relationship with the Twins organization ended in 2002, but the Twins kept trying to re-establish a connection and get him to come to spring training as a guest instructor. Puckett put on considerable weight, as well and his weight gain concerned friends and former teammates. Kirby suffered a massive stroke early Sunday, March 5th  at his home in Scottsdale, Arizona and passed away the following day.

Baseball Digest article called “The game I will never forget” as told by Kirby Puckett to George Vass

SABR BioProject write-up on Kirby can be found here.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune obituary for Kirby can be found here.

This Day in Twins History – January 16, 2001

In their first year of eligibility,  Kirby Puckett and Dave Winfield are elected to the MLB Hall of Fame. The former Twins are the fourth pair of teammates selected by BBWAA in the same year.

Kirby Puckett who spent his entire career as a Minnesota Twin was a Twins icon from the day he was called up in 1984 until he lost sight in his right eye and had to leave baseball after the 1995 season at the age of 36. Puckett, a fan favorite where ever he went led the Minnesota Twins to World Series championships in 1987 and 1991 and was an All-Star for 10 consecutive years. Kirby Puckett suffered a massive stroke and died on March 6, 2006.

Dave Winfield

Dave Winfield is a Minnesota native and attended the University of Minnesota where he was a star in both baseball and basketball. In 1973, he was named All-American and voted MVP of the College World Series as a pitcher. After his college eligibility was concluded, Winfield was drafted by four teams in three different sports. The San Diego Padres selected him as a pitcher with the fourth overall pick in the MLB draft and both the Atlanta Hawks (NBA) and the Utah Stars (ABA) drafted him and though he never played college football, the Minnesota Vikings selected Winfield in the 17th round of the NFL draft. Winfield signed with the San Diego Padres and the Padres immediately put Winfield in right field and Winfield was on his way to a Hall of Fame career with not a single day of minor league baseball on his resume. Winfield’s 22 year career also included stops with the Yankees, Angels, Blue Jays, Twins, and the Cleveland Indians. Winfield had 3,110 career hits with hit number 3,000 coming at the Metrodome in a Twins uniform.

Can Twins bounce back in 2012? What does history tell us?

Our Minnesota Twins are coming off an atrocious 2011 where the team finished 63-99, a full 32 games behind the AL Central Division winning Detroit Tigers and in the process posting the second worst record in all of baseball. But 2011 is behind us now and we look forward to spring and a brand new season of baseball which hopefully will see the Twins back in winning form. In just a little over a month, Twins players from all over the globe will start to congregate in Ft. Myers, Florida to get into baseball shape which I think really means that they will get in a little stretching, jog a little, catch up on the off-season gossip and  start throwing the baseball around and take a few swings with those shiny new bats they just received during the off-season. When a bad season of baseball ends, there is always “next year” and that next year is just about upon us.

Long before baseball was played, back sometime between 1688-1744 the English poet Alexander Pope said “hope springs eternal in the human breast” and no truer words could be said about how baseball fans look at their favorite baseball teams. Forgotten are the numerous injuries, be they real or perceived, the dropped balls, the hitters that couldn’t run out a ground ball, the runners that had brain farts and stood there and watched as the hit and run unfolded in front of them, the fielders that couldn’t throw straight, the pitchers that keep hitting opponent bats, the perplexed pitching coach who wondered why his pitchers couldn’t find home plate even though it was always in the same spot, the manager who had to make up numerous line-ups each day because he didn’t know which of his players were in the mood to play that day, and of course the owner who was left to wonder what happened to his $113 million.

The injuries that plagued the team in 2011 are hopefully healed and with another year of experience under their belts, we all hope the Twins are back and playing baseball the way that Twins fans of today expect. We are not interested in seeing the Twins play ball as they did say between 1971-1986 when they never won more than 85 games and finished as high as second only once, we expect to see a winning team on the field or at least a team that is playing like they want to win versus the 2011 bunch that quit early and often.

So, what does history tell us will happen to the Twins in 2012? I want you to keep reading, but the bottom line is that while miracles can happen, it sure does not look good. The Twins were 31 games worse in 2011 than they were in 2010, 31 games, only once in franchise history had a Senators/Twins team played so much worse than they had the previous season and those were the Washington Senators of 1934 who finished the season 33 games worse with a 66-86 mark after advancing to the World Series in 1933 with a 99-53 record. The following season (1935) they won 67 games, one more than the year before.

So how have Senators and Twins teams bounced back from such dismal seasons? The best the Senators could ever do was improve by 27 games back between 1911-1912 and the best the Twins have done since 1961 is improve by 23 games as the 1965 Twins did when they won 102 games coming off a 79 win season in 1964.

But let’s look at more modern times so we will look at the seasons between 1997 and 2011 because it probably makes for a fairer comparison based on free agency and player movement of today. In the last 15 seasons here is what has happened in the AL Central Division.

The Kansas City Royals worst drop-off was in 2004 when the team finished 25 games worse than they did in 2003. The following season, 2005, the Royals finished 2 games worse. The best improvement that the Royals have shown their fans was when they finished 21 games better in 2003 than they had shown in 2002.

The Chicago White Sox worst drop-off was in 2007 when the team finished 18 games worse than they did in 2006. The following season, 2008, the mighty whitey’s finished 17 games better. The best improvement that the White Sox fans have seen was when they finished 20 games better in 2000 than they had shown in 1999.

The Cleveland Indians worst drop-off was in 2002 when the team finished 17 games worse than they did in 2001. The following season, 2003, the Indians finished 6 games worse. The best improvement that the Indians fans have seen was when they finished 18 games better in 2007 than they had shown in 2006.

The Detroit Tigers worst drop-off was 14 games and it happened twice, once between 1997 and 1998 and again from 2007 to 2008. The following season in 1999 the team improved by 4 games and in 2009 the team improved by 12 games. The best improvement that the Tigers have seen was when they finished 29 games better in 2004 (to a 72-90 season) than they had shown in 2003, but, 2003 was the season the Tigers put up a pathetic 43-119 record.

That brings us to the Twins, whose worst drop-off was 31 games in 2011 from their 2010 season. The biggest improvement the Twins have shown during this 15 year period was in 2001 (TK’s last season as manager) when they finished 16 games better than what they showed us in 2000. In the past 15 years the Twins have improved their record from the previous season 8 times for an average improvement in games won over the previous season of 8 games. On the minus side their record has gotten worse from the previous season 7 times for an average of -11.29 but that is obviously skewed by the big -31 of 2011. If the 2012 Twins could match their biggest improvement of say 16 games as they did in 2001, that still only moves the Twins 2012 record up to 79-83. The Twins have to improve by 18 games just to reach the .500 mark and would have to improve by 27 games to reach the 90 win mark. It does not look promising.

The Twins have improved their previous years mark by 18 games or better on 4 occassions. The feat was accomplished by the 1991 team that improved by 21 games, the 1969 team that improved by 18 games, the 1965 team that improved by 23 games and the 1962 team that was 21 games better than the 1961 team. Four times in 50 seasons, not good odds for sure and remember, an 18 game improvement only takes the team to an 81-81 record, or .500 baseball. The team has lost Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey and a number of bit players but then again, they lost 99 games when they had these guys. I know they added Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and brought back Matt Capps but how many wins will these guys put in the “W” column?

What this team needs in order to play respectable baseball is for Joe Mauer to step back to earth from the “Twilight Zone” that he was in most of last year and catch 130 games and play 1B and DH for 10-15 more. I see no reason why this can’t happen, Mauer should come out of the gate madder than hell and show everyone that 2011 was a fluke. I will believe that when I see it. The next issue is Justin Morneau, here I am not nearly as optimistic. Justin was just a shell of himself in 2011 and I worry that Justin Morneau’s baseball career is coming to a premature end. That would be so sad as Justin should have many more years in him as a productive Twins first baseman. I hope I am totally wrong about Morneau, but if I was a betting man I would say “show me you still got it” Justin. I hope that Danny Valencia thought long and hard about his baseball career since the 2011 season ended because if he continues to play in 2012 like he did in 2011, he will be receiving his fan mail in Rochester come the middle of May. Valencia might not be the .311 hitter he was in 2010 but he sure better not be the .246 hitter he was in 2011 either. A little more work with the glove wouldn’t hurt Danny either. The Twins outfield is a mess, Willingham is a left fielder and the Twins need him to play right because Ben Revere can’t throw out his grandmother. So that forces the team to play Revere in center which is OK in itself but that means you need to move Span to right field but Span says he wants to play center. In my humble opinion, any outfield with Revere and Span both playing at the same time is a bad thing. I am not sure how things are going to shake out but come the second half of 2012, Joe Benson will be playing in the Twins outfield some where. The Twins signed Jamey Carroll to play short but the man has never had a full-time job in 10 big league seasons and he will be 38 before the Twins open the exhibition season. Is that a move that a contending team makes? We can hope that Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes back to life and show us that he really is a professional baseball player……come on, really, there is a chance. Alexi Casilla at 2B is an enigma but I still have hope for this 27-year-old with parts of six big league season under his belt. The bullpen is a couple of sharp knives short of a complete set and the starting staff of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, and Jason Marquis would make any manager nervous.

So here it is, you make up your mind, can the Twins compete or will they have to fight and scratch like hell just to reach the .500 mark? Me? Come October, I think we should all be dancing on Target Plaza celebrating manager Ron Gardenhire’s second manager of the year award with a cold drink in our hand if this collection of Twins can win half of their games in 2012. However; if this this team wins 70 or fewer games in 2012, manager Ron Gardenhire may be looking for a job.

This Day in Twins History – January 5, 2011

Roberto Alomar, a 12-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove winning second baseman, and Bert Blyleven, a 287-game winning pitcher who ranks fifth on the all-time strikeout list, were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Blyleven, who garnered 79.7% of the votes, pitched in 22 seasons with the Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians and California Angels and compiled a 287-250 record with a 3.31 ERA, 242 complete games, 60 shutouts and 3,701 strikeouts in 4,969 1/3 innings. The right-hander pitched a no-hitter on Sept. 22, 1977 for the Rangers against the Angels and shares the AL single-game record for the longest one-hit complete game of 10 innings June 21, 1976. He, too, was a key part of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1987 Twins.