Tag: Francisco Liriano

How do you fix this?

The Twins pitching this season has been dismal and as I took a look at the Twins pitching stats during last nights 11-2 drubbing at the hands of the Boston Red Sox I have to wonder what Terry Ryan, Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson can do to fix the problem. Before the Twins had even played one game that counted this season they had already lost reliever Joel Zumaya and starter Scott Baker to Tommy John surgery. Losing Baker who I thought was the Twins top starting pitcher was a serious blow to a team that already had pitching woes. The 29 year-old Baker had started 159 games with a 63-48 record over the last 7 seasons with a 4.15 ERA and could be counted on to keep the Twins in the game when he was on the mound. With Baker out for the season the Twins went in to the 2012 season with a starting five composed of Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis, Nick Blackburn and either Anthony Swarzak or Liam Hendriks. Liriano who was dubbed “the Franchise” back in 2006 when he went 12-3 has been a colossal disappointment this season and now is out of the rotation to clear his head after four terrible starts when he has gone 0-4 with a 11.02 ERA and 2.36 WHIP in 16.1 innings and giving up a league leading 20 earned runs. A 2.36 WHIP, that is incredible, 2.36 runners every inning. The Twins seem to be perplexed with what to do with Liriano and plan to have him skip a start and work on the side. Personally, I think the best thing they can do with Liriano at this point is send him back to the minors and have him pitch until he proves he can get big league hitters out. Everyone keeps saying that Liriano has “great stuff” and maybe he does and maybe he doesn’t but the bottom line is that right now he is not a major league pitcher and he has no business being in the big leagues. I would rather see the Twins call up some one from the minors and have them learn how to pitch in the majors than send Liriano out start after start with little to no hope of improvement. It is not all about physical ability, you have to understand how to pitch in the big leagues and I’m afraid that Francisco Liriano may never attain that stature. Pavano and Marquis are both veterans and you get what you see with these two, journeymen at best that are filling out a starting rotation. The sinker-balling Nick Blackburn is no star but can fill the back-end of a starting rotation. I am not sure what Liam Hendriks can do in the majors but I am willing to send him out every fifth day and see what he has to offer. Swarzak is probably best suited for the role he is in right now, the long man in the pen. The 25 year-old lefty Scott Diamond who was a Rule 5 pick-up from the Atlanta Braves in December of 2010 is tearing it up in Rochester with a 4-0 mark and a 1.07 ERA in four starts is worth calling up for a big league shot. What have you got to lose?

The Twins have to do something, but what? They are 5-13 and 5.5 games out and we are still in April. How much improvement can Gardy and Ryan expect from a pitching staff that is putting up these kinds of numbers?

Twins Opponent
IP 146 151
H 161 148
R 91 63
ER 87 56
HR 26 13
BB 42 47
SO 86 117
ERA 5.36 3.34
WHIP 1.39 1.29
Oppenent batting avg. .283 .256

Good, Bad, and Ugly

Yesterday was an interesting day for the Minnesota Twins and their fans with the news being good, bad and ugly.

GOOD – On a cool crisp spring evening at Target Field the Twins finally got off the snide and posted their first victory of 2012. After a 0-4 start to the season and not having the lead in any game since the season began, the Twins finally took their first lead of the season in the fourth inning on Josh Willingham’s third home run of the season.  Willingham by the way, has a hit in every game this season. With the 6-5 victory the Twins became the last team in major league baseball to post a “W” in the win column. Hopefully the Twins can now relax a little and start playing some good baseball. I can see it taking a some time for this Twins team to gel as it has a number of new pieces as Chris Parmelee or Joe Mauer covers first base, Jamey Carroll gets acclimated over at short, Josh Willingham takes over left field and Ryan Doumit, Trevor Plouffe, or Ben Revere play in right field. Not counting the changes to their pitching staff, that makes four new players in the eight positions on the field. It takes time to learn each other strengths and weaknesses and to play well as a team. The Twins will need to play some good ball because the Texas Rangers come to town on Friday and then Gardy’s boys play the Yankees and the Rays on the road before returning home to face the Red Sox and the Royals.

Bad – The bad news is that the Twins honeymoon at Target Field is over. Yesterdays crowd of 31,413 was the smallest crowd in Target Field history. With the team coming off a 63-99 mark a year ago and a tough 0-4 start in 2012 the fans have not been beating down Target Fields gates to buy tickets. You could see this situation developing late last season when the Twins were playing out the string and there were empty seats all over but at least those seats were bought and paid for and the fans stayed out because they had better things to do on nice fall days then to follow a baseball team that was playing poorly but the empty seats this year are just that, empty seats. If the Twins don’t put a winning team on the field, the empty seat count will rise, the revenue will decrease, and in turn the payroll will have to shrink. Twins fans have become accustomed to winning baseball and last years losing season was a tough pill to swallow but yet the fans still had hope entering this season as they expected their walking wounded in Mauer, Morneau, and Span to return true to form. Then the 2012 season opened and the Twins lost their four games. A tough break for the Twins for sure but it was not the poor start to this season that is causing the empty seats, it is last years record and the off-season acquisitions or lack there of that has the fans hesitant to open their wallets for Twins tickets in 2012. The new ballpark “smells” don’t last forever and now the Twins have to earn their ticket sales on the field.

Scott Baker

UGLY – The ugly news yesterday was the announcement by Twins starting pitcher Scott Baker that he will undergo season ending surgery to repair the flexor pronator tendon in his right elbow before he has even thrown a single pitch that counted in 2012. The expected recovery time for this type of surgery is about six months.

The 30 year-old Baker was drafted by the Twins in the second round of the 2003 amateur draft and made his big league debut in May of 2005. Scott has a 63-48 career mark in 159 starts during hs seven seasons in a Twins uniform. Although I have gotten on Baker for his lack of emotion and how he slows the game to a crawl when he gets runners on the bases, I consider Baker to be the Twins number one starting pitcher. Francisco Liriano probably has better stuff that Baker does but he does not seem to be as mentally savvy on the mound as Baker is. Sure, Baker takes a trip to the DL now and then but when Baker is healthy, he is a very nice pitcher who unlike most Twins pitchers can strike out a batter when needed. From Baker’s point of view, the timing couldn’t be worse as the Twins hold a 2013 option for $9.5 million that is now really in question. The risk to pick up the option is huge but can the Minnesota Twins who always seem to struggle to find starting pitching pass on a proven big league pitcher?

The Twins will miss Scott Baker in the starting rotation but there is always a silver lining, when one door closes, another opens and we will have to wait and see who will latch on to Baker’s spot in the starting rotation and run with it.

How they will finish in 2012

 

Mr. Einstein

With the 2012 baseball season just around the corner, if you don’t count that stupid two game series that the A’s and Mariners played and split in Japan, it is time for us here in Twins Trivia to look into the crystal ball and see what is in store for us this season. They say that baseball is a simple game, all you need to do is hit the ball, pitch the ball and pick-up the ball but I thought I would run it by Mr. Einstein just to be sure.

East

 1. Tampa Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
 

West

1. Los Angeles Angels 
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A’s
 

Central

1. Detroit Tigers (91-71)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80)
3. Minnesota Twins (78-84)
4. Kansas City Royals (76-86)
5. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
 

The Detroit Tigers are far and way the best team in the division and should be up by 10 games at the All-Star break and have a cake walk the rest of the way. However; having picked the Tigers to win the AL Central, the team is certainly not without its problems. The Tigers defense if they continue to pursue going down the Miguel Cabrera at 3B path will be atrocious but I see manager Jim Leyland changing that plan before he gets out of April. But even after Leyland addresses the 3B situation, the Bengals still have defense problems at 1B, 2B, SS, and LF. It will be fun to watch the Tigers hit but when they are in the field it will be a totally different story. The Tiger bullpen is solid although there is no way in the world that closer Jose Valverde has another year in 2012 like he had in 2011. The Tigers other major issue is starting pitching where they have a reigning Cy Young award winner in Justin Verlander followed by Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and the Tigers just announced that Drew Smyly won the last starting spot.  Who is Drew Smyly? Fister, and Scherzer are workable starters on a pennant contender but Porcello and who ever the Tigers have slotted for number 5 will not cut the mustard and the Tigers are going to have to make some moves to fill those holes.

The Cleveland Indians continue to improve albeit very slowly and the team has worked hard to try to improve its starting rotation that includes Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jiminez, Derek Lowe, Jeanmar Gomez, and Josh Tomlin. Twins cast-off Kevin Slowey could not make this starting rotation. Not a great starting rotation, but I have seen a lot worse. The Indians offense lost Gardy Sizemore to injury once again but Sizemore’s best days are now behind him anyway so that is not as great a loss as some may think. On offense the Indians need outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to bounce back after an injury plagued 2011, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to continue to show improvement after a breakout season last year, 2B Jason Kipnis to show that he is for real, Michael Brantley needs to prove he is a legit lead-off hitter, Lonnie Chisenhall to hit to his potential and to earn his way back as the Indians starting 3B, and for 35-year-old Travis Hafner to stay healthy and hit like he can as the teams DH.

I like the Kansas City Royals a lot because of the nice young players they have like Eric Hosmer at 1B, former 3B and now outfielder Alex Gordon, Billy Butler as the DH, Alcides Escobar at SS, and 3B Mike Moustakas. The Royals took a serious blow to the gut when closer Jokaim Soria went down with an elbow issue and will require TJ surgery but maybe the Royals dodged a bullet if free agent signee Jonathan Broxton can bounce back and become a workable closer once again, a long shot to be sure but still, a chance. The Royals starting pitching is what really needs to take a step forward if this team is to become a contender. Luke Hochevar anchors the rotation but he still young and is slowly improving. Jonathan Sanchez who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants has some potential and could become their number 2 starter. Veteran Bruce Chen continues to get his 10-12 wins each year although I don’t know how and Felipe Paulino slides in as the fourth starter although he could miss the first part of the season. Paulino has control issues but he can also strikeout some hitters. The fifth spot is open and the Royals would like to see youngster Danny Duffy lock up that spot. The Royals need to find a way to improve their starting pitching before they can be considered a serious challenger.

I pick the Chicago White Sox to finish in the Central Division basement. The mighty whities are a high-priced team that has under performed and is old to boot. White Sox GM Ken Williams has shown over the last few years that he doesn’t have a clue on how to be a big league general manager and the sooner he is fired the sooner the White Sox can once again can become a contender. The White Sox let Ozzie Guillen go as manager and hired the totally inexperienced former 3B Robin Ventura to manage this motley crew. The Sox have some proven starting pitching in John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jake Peavy but Peavy is always hurt and you can’t count on him to be a solid contributor. Former Twins pitcher Philip Humber was a pleasant surprise for the Sox last season but he remains unproven. The Sox have moved the young fireballing Chris Sale out of the pen and into a starters role so his transition will be closely watched. Since the whities traded their closer Sergio Santos to Toronto during the off-season they are in need of a closer and it appears that Matt Thornton will start the season in that role but indications are that Addison Reed will take over the closers role before the 2012 season comes to a merciful end for the Chicago White Sox.

That bring us to the Minnesota Twins who unfortunately will finish third in this weak AL Central with a 78-84 record. 78 wins does not sound like much but it is a nice 15 win improvement after last years dismal showing. The Twins fired GM Bill Smith and put former GM Terry Ryan back in the driver’s seat but Ryan is driving a Chevy and Twins management is selling it as a BMW and this past off-season instead of going into a rebuilding mode after losing Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and several others, the team decided to try to plug some leaks, drop their payroll by $15 million and see if they can regain their 2010 form. They signed 38 career utility player Jamey Carroll to be their starting shortstop, they signed Josh Willingham to provide some power as a corner outfielder and catcher Ryan Doumit to provide some pop as the back-up catcher. Last season catcher Joe Mauer had a horrible season hitting .287 and playing in just 82 games due to some mysterious injuries that still have not been explained but Mauer has worked hard this spring and you have to think he is back to being the All-Star catcher he should be. 1B Justin Morneau was even worse, hitting .227 with four home runs and playing in 69 games due to a variety of injuries but his major issue was the concussion he suffered in Toronto the previous season. Morneau started spring training playing 1B but midway through spring training he was hitting under .100 and the team decided that Morneau would be the primary DH this season although he would still see time at 1B but I would expect him playing first base less than 30 times this season. Morneau caught fire with his bat but still seldom makes an appearance at 1B in Florida. The Twins need Morneau to hit like he can and to stay healthy but that might be asking a lot based on what Justin has shown the past few years. The second baseman, often injured Alexi Casilla is in a make it or break it season and he has to prove he can play 150+ games, something he has never done. He has already missing games in spring training due to a sore knee. The leader of the Twins “fun bunch” is 3B Danny Valencia who is coming off a “sophomore slump” season in 2011 both with his bat and in the field. Valencia has to start to field at 3B like he cares and to hit more for average versus trying to be that dead pull hitter that he showed in 2011. A little humility by Valencia wouldn’t hurt either, Danny is not God’s gift to baseball even though he seems to think he is. Denard Span has to prove that he is over his own concussion and neck woes and that the Twins can count on him to play day in and day out in centerfield because he has a lot of ground to cover when Willingham is in left and Trevor Plouffe or Ryan Doumit is playing in right. Right field is probably a platoon between Plouffe, Doumit and maybe even Ben Revere who has a throwing arm like a pop gun. The Twins starting pitching is shaky at best and that is kind of funny because going back just a few years the Twins thought their starting pitching was a strength and some bloggers thought we had too much starting pitching but that was just before Kyle Gibson was deemed to need TJ surgery and Alex Wimmers had no clue where home plate was. Francisco Liriano has had a super spring and he is in his contract year but no Twins starter has shown as much “Jekyll and Hyde” personality as Francisco has. One day the man pitches a no-hitter and the next time out he can’t string two good innings together. Scott Baker can be really good but you can also count on Scott Baker to hit the DL at least once each season and this year he will start the season on the DL. I find Baker an interesting pitcher because he makes his living pitching high in the strike zone. What drives me crazy with Baker is that the man never shows any emotion. Get mad, slam your glove down, anything, just show me you are alive Scott. Carl Pavano is one of those guys that goes out and throws 200 innings and gives up 2225 hits but keeps his team in the game. This coming from a guy that had a huge contract with the Yankees between 2005-2008 and was hurt year after year while pitching in just 26 games. Nick Blackburn owns the Twins number 4 starting spot and the sinkerballing right hander is starting his fifth season in the Twins starting rotation. Blackburn, a pitch to contact guy has started at least 26 games each season although his innings pitched have decreased the last two years from a career high of 205 in 2009. Blackburn is one of those guys that gives hitters a comfortable collar but then there are other games when he gives up hit after hit. Blackburn has pitched a few big games for the Twins and has seems to rise to the occasion. The last spot in the starting rotation belongs to newly acquired Jason Marquis a 33-year-old right hander beginning his 13 big league season and is a lot like Pavano, gives up a lot of hits but keeps his team deep into games. Not a stellar rotation by any means but when they pitch well, the Twins have a chance as Gardy might tell you. How about the relievers? Who knows, the Twins resigned Matt Capps to be their closer after Joe Nathan hit the trail for Texas. Capps is not one of the elite closers in the league but does a team that is destined to finish under .500 need an elite closer? I don’t think so and I think Capps can be a good character on this team. Minnesota native lefty Glen Perkins had a breakout season both on the pitching front and out of Gardy’s doghouse. Perkins was outstanding last season and was the Twins best pitcher most of the year. Brian Duensing moves to the bullpen after a disappointing year in the starting rotation in 2011 and he should do a good job there based on what he has shown there previously. Matt Maloney and Jared Burton, both former Redlegs appear to have earned bullpen jobs. Anthony Swarzak is the long guy in the pen and sometimes starter and that role seems to fit him well. The final bullpen spot is still to be determined with Jeff Gray and Alex Burnett still battling it out as spring training winds down. Kyle Waldrop was in the running for the final spot too but he ended up taking a spot on the DL bench.

Ryan did what he could to get more offense on the field but in the process he sacrificed his defense, particularly in the outfield. The fact that the Twins will not have Justin Morneau at 1B will also hurt the other infielders who are used to having Morneau scoop their bad throws out of the dirt. The Twins have numerous holes but they do have some young players that are knocking on the door like Chris Parmelee at 1B, Brian Dozier at SS, Joe Benson in the outfield, Liam Hendriks as a starter and Carlos Gutierrez in the pen. It is starting pitching that the Twins crave but outside of Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers, their does not appear to be a lot there. If the youngsters do indeed turn out to be big leaguers, Ryan will have a core to build on. Deeper in the minors they have some players that could turn out to be stars in a few years. We as fans sometimes fall in love with our teams players and hate to see them go but baseball is like life, you have to keep moving forward and change is necessary, if you stand still,  it means that someone is gaining on you. Change is good, we need to embrace change. Going into 2011 Gardy and Smith talked about the need to add speed, no one talks about speed this year….. I wrote all this and didn’t mention Tsuyoshi Nishioka until just now, see how easy it is to forget?

When the smoke clears, Twins fans should be dancing on Target Plaza if this team can somehow play .500 ball, I unfortunately don’t see it happening in 2012. I just hope that the Twins play some exciting baseball the way it should be played and hopefully fans will still keep coming to Target Field to watch them.

Division winners – Rays, Tigers, Angels

Wild Cards – Yankees, Rangers

Tampa Rays move on to represent the American League in the World Series

Twins Trivia 25 man roster

With the 2012 season less than two weeks away it is still very difficult to predict to will be on the Twins 25 man roster when the Twins take on the Orioles in Baltimore on April 6th. That is not normal for the Twins of recent years but when you lose a few veterans to free agency and the team is coming off a 63-99 record you should not be surprised that there are questions everywhere. I do think the Twins will make a trade or two before the season opens and who knows who might suffer an injury that could change everything. An injury could dramatically change the starting line-up and who makes the 25 man roster on opening day. Here is how I see the team starting the season, I don’t think it will stay that way for long but here is how I see the Twins coming out of the starting gate.

Catcher – The starting catcher will obviously be Joe Mauer who hopefully can catch 120-130 games and play some first base and DH. His primary back-up will be Ryan Doumit. I think the Twins need to carry a 3rd catcher because Mauer and Doumit are both injury prone and will play other positions. I would not be surprised to see all three of their catchers playing in the same game now and then. The Twins third catcher this year will be J.R Towles (an easy addition to the 40 man roster) because the Twins will trade Drew Butera before the season starts to a team that needs a back-up catcher. The Twins are loyal to a fault sometimes and since they have no room in the majors for Butera, they will try to find him a big league job somewhere. Josh Willingham was a catcher earlier in his career so he could be an emergency back stop for Gardy too.

1B – The Twins black hole, the huge unknown. Justin Morneau should be here but I’m afraid we won’t be seeing a lot of Justin at 1B. If Morneau could regain his health, play 1B and even be 90% of what he was in the past, this Twins team would be dramatically better and the team make-up would be much different. The Twins primary first baseman for now and the forseeable future is Chris Parmelee but you will also see Mauer here and Doumit will also show up at first for  a few games and even Luke Hughes can play here if needed.

2B – Belongs to Alexi Casilla but Alexi has played over 100 games in a season only once and that was back in 2006 in the minors. The switch hitting Casilla could really provide a big lift to the team if he can stay healthy and play 150+ games but I think we can count on Alexi taking a mini vacation on the DL this year too. Casilla is a streaky hitter but he has provided some key hits for the Twins over the years. Terry Ryan has always been a Casilla fan but I think he is looking at this year as a “make it or break it season” for Alexi, he either proves he can do it this year or he is history. The back-up second baseman is Luke Hughes but Jamey Carroll can play second too. In an emergency Trevor Plouffe can also play there.

SS – Free agent acquisition Jamey Carroll will start the season at short but I don’t see him holding on to this role for long. Carroll has had over 400 at bats only twice in ten big league seasons, why should things change at 38 years of age? I think by mid June we will see the Brian Dozier shortstop era begin and Carroll who was signed for two years will become the utility player the Twins are looking for, albeit a bit on the expensive side. Casilla will play some short in a back-up role and if the Twins are really in dire straights, they can slip Hughes or Plouffe over there for a game or two.

3B – Should belong to Danny Valencia but he needs to prove he is a big leaguer. Last year was a real downer for Valencia both in the field and at the bat. Hopefully Valencia gets his head screwed on straight and starts playing like he can. Valencia is not the .311 hitter he showed us in 2010 but he is also not the .246 hitter he forced us to watch in 2011 either. Danny needs to adjust his attitude too, he is not a super star so he had better quit acting like one because Minnesota fans will not tolerate it. Hughes is Valencia’s back-up but Carroll and Casilla could play third in a pinch too. In the unlikely event that Valencia is really the 2011 version, hopefully Sean Burroughs is still with the Twins and can be called up. Burroughs can hit, although not with a lot of power and I see him as the last player cut and the Twins 26th man.

LF – Will be manned by Josh Willingham just like I said all along since the Twins signed him. Gardy announced that Willingham is his left fielder after trying Willingham in right all spring. It will be interesting to see how Twins fans react to Willingham as the Twins have not had a hitter like Willingham in some time. Josh did hit a career high 29 home runs in Oakland last season but he also struck out 150 times and had a .246 average. Willingham was a catcher earlier in his career so speed is not his game and he is 33 years old and now there are reports that his arm is not as good as the Twins may have thought. Back-ups here would be Ben Revere, Denard Span, and Trevor Plouffe.

CF – Will be patrolled by Denard Span. The fly in the ointment here would be if Span is not totally recovered from his neck pain or his concussion from last season. Span needs to stay healthy, hit at least .285 steal 25 bases and score about 100 runs if he wants to meet Twins expectations of him in the lead-off spot. The only other outfielder the Twins have to play center is the speedy Ben Revere and he can cover center but his hitting is not all it could be and he throws like a grandmother. The Twins say that Span’s throwing is improved but you can’t make silk from a pigs ear. With Willingham in LF and who ever plays RF be it Doumit, Plouffe, Parmelee, Span and or Revere will have to cover a lot of ground in center because they are the only two outfielders with any speed what so ever.

RF – I think you will see a number of players out here but I think that Ryan Doumit and Trevor Plouffe will get the majority of the time in right. But who ever the Twins put in right other that Span or Revere has to be considered a defensive liability. I think Twins fans will be shocked at how many balls don’t get caught in left and right this season. Who ever plays right might just be keeping the position warm for when Joe Benson gets called up later this season. Benson’s call-up may even move Span to RF.

Bench – Luke Hughes is out of options and is a nice hitter to have coming off the bench. Luke can play all four infield positions, just not well enough to be a starter in any of them. The second bench player is catcher  J.R. Towles who I think beats out Drew Butera. I know that Towles is a .187 hitter as compared to Butera’s .178 but Towles at least has a chance to be a better hitter, I don’t think Butera does. Towles is a good catcher too and earlier this spring I saw him playing 3B and he wasn’t too shabby for a catcher. Butera gets traded. The third member of the Twins bench is Trevor Plouffe the former SS/2B and now an outfielder. Plouffe has some pop in his bat and hopefully he can learn to play the outfield just as Michael Cuddyer did many years earlier and he can still play 2B/SS  if things get hinky for Gardenhire. Ben Revere has my final bench spot simply because the Twins need someone like him to take over in LF or RF late in the game when the Twins have a lead or to come off the bench as a pinch-runner to steal a base.

SP – Is all locked up assuming there are no injuries. Francisco Liriano coming off his best spring ever is pitching like his Twins career depends on it and it is about time. I am not going to get too excited  just yet with Francisco because I know how quickly things can fall apart for him. What a treat it would be if Liriano finally pitched like the ace many predicted he would be. Having said that, if someone offers me an arm and a leg with potential, I trade Francisco so fast it would make your head spin. Scott Baker has the potential to be a very good pitcher but he has hit the 200 inning mark just once in his seven-year career but he is only 30. What frustrates me about Baker is that when he gets some runners on base he turns the game into slo-mo. One more thing, Scott never shows any emotion, some would say that is a good thing, I would say hogwash, I have no problem when a pitcher comes into the dugout after giving up a couple of runs and slams his glove to the bench, show me your care Scott Baker! Baker is like Camilo Pascual in that he likes to take a summer break to the DL list once a year or so, count on it. Carl Pavano is not a great pitcher but he is one of those inning eaters who wants to win. Pavano can pitch on my team any time. Nick Blackburn is my number 4 SP, but I gotta say I don’t understand him at all. Blackie is a sinkerballer who has some great games and others that he just stinks, you just don’t know who you are going to get on any given day. When Nick is healthy, he can throw some innings. The fifth starter is the newest addition, Jason Marquis. I think you will find Marquis to be Pavano like except he gives up fewer hits but walks more batters and when healthy he too will give you 200 innings. The next starter in line should one of the five get hurt or traded is probably Liam Hendriks who could be a lot like Brad Radke if all goes according to plan. Maybe late in the season there may even be a Kyle Gibson sighting, that would be cool.

Bullpen – The Twins bullpen is anchored by closer Matt Capps and I don’t have nearly the issues with Capps that many other bloggers and fans have. He is not the 3 up 3 down kind of closer but he will get the job done when the scoreboard shows the Twins leading late in the game. If former Orioles manager and Hall of Famer Earl Weaver was the Twins manager today he would call Capps a “two-pack closer”.  That meant that Weaver, a heavy smoker could go through two packs of cigarettes as he watched his closer finally shut down the opposition. The set-up guys are left hander and Minnesota native Glen Perkins who escaped the Twins doghouse last season and found his niche with the ballclub and was arguably the Twins top pitcher in 2011. The RH set-up guy appears to be Jared Burton a free agent from this past off-season. Burton is only 30 but he has some injury baggage but a few years ago he was touted to be the Reds closer of the future. Burton has a nice career 7.6 SO/9 but the down side is that he also has a 3.9 BB/9, kind of a more experienced Alex Burnett. The left-handed former starter Brian Duensing will spend the season in the bullpen this year where he is probably better suited. The big right-hander Anthony Swarzak has lost some weight this off-season and some say he has locked down a bullpen spot but I don’t think he has pitched all that well this spring but he has not pitched poorly enough not to earn a spot in the Twins bullpen either. Swarzak is versatile and can pitch several days in a row and that makes him a Twin in 2012. The 28 year-old left handed Matt Maloney is a surprise to me. The former Cincinnati Redleg is striking them out right and left this spring and he has good control, yes, I know, spring training stats mean squat but you have to base your decision on something and that is all I have to go on right now. Maloney seems too good to be true but the Twins “have caught lightning in a bottle” before when they went searching for relief pitchers, maybe they did it again. The final bullpen spot I think is still up in the air between Alex Burnett, Jeff Manship and Kyle Waldrop, all right handers and all with some Twins experience on their resume. If you go strictly by the numbers this spring, Waldrop is the guy for you but Burnett has the most experience and according to Twins management, has upside going for him so I gave the final bullpen spot to the Alex Burnett.

So that is it, that is how I see the Twins roster shaping up for the 2012 season. I would like to tell you that the Twins will contend for the AL Central title this year but I just don’t see that in the cards. I do see the Twins roster turning over as the season moves along and players like Chris Parmelee, Brian Dozier, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Carlos Gutierrez, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros and maybe Kyle Gibson taking on bigger roles at Target field. A number of Twins players will be out to prove that they are still bonified big leaguers this season. 2012 will be a season of change in Minnesota and the July 30 trade deadline could keep GM Terry Ryan real busy. Never the less, I am ready to see the Minnesota Twins open the 2012 season. WIN TWINS!

How about the batting order on opening day? here is how I see it.

Span – CF – bats left
Carroll – SS – bats right
Mauer – C – bats left
Morneau – DH – bats left
Willingham – LF – bats right
Doumit – RF – switch hitter
Valencia – 3B – bats right
Parmelee – 1B – bats left
Casilla – 2B – switch hitter
 

Morneau hitting fourth and Willingham fifth is just Gardy’s loyalty to Justin and reward for his years of Twins service. Morneau and Willingham will switch spots in the batting order very soon.

 

I miss the old days of baseball

Francisco Liriano

I know I am getting older but I miss the old days of baseball especially when I hear things like todays announcement by ESPN that the Twins have avoided arbitration with starting pitcher Francisco Liriano by signing him to a $5.5 million deal for 2012. Liriano was terrible in 2011 pitching a total of 134.1 innings and putting up a 9-10 won/lost record with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Now days that earns him a $1.2 million raise, in the good old days this would have earned him a 25% cut. That is the way things are today I guess, not only do we accept mediocrity, we actually reward people for it. Sad, just plain sad…..

Can Twins bounce back in 2012? What does history tell us?

Our Minnesota Twins are coming off an atrocious 2011 where the team finished 63-99, a full 32 games behind the AL Central Division winning Detroit Tigers and in the process posting the second worst record in all of baseball. But 2011 is behind us now and we look forward to spring and a brand new season of baseball which hopefully will see the Twins back in winning form. In just a little over a month, Twins players from all over the globe will start to congregate in Ft. Myers, Florida to get into baseball shape which I think really means that they will get in a little stretching, jog a little, catch up on the off-season gossip and  start throwing the baseball around and take a few swings with those shiny new bats they just received during the off-season. When a bad season of baseball ends, there is always “next year” and that next year is just about upon us.

Long before baseball was played, back sometime between 1688-1744 the English poet Alexander Pope said “hope springs eternal in the human breast” and no truer words could be said about how baseball fans look at their favorite baseball teams. Forgotten are the numerous injuries, be they real or perceived, the dropped balls, the hitters that couldn’t run out a ground ball, the runners that had brain farts and stood there and watched as the hit and run unfolded in front of them, the fielders that couldn’t throw straight, the pitchers that keep hitting opponent bats, the perplexed pitching coach who wondered why his pitchers couldn’t find home plate even though it was always in the same spot, the manager who had to make up numerous line-ups each day because he didn’t know which of his players were in the mood to play that day, and of course the owner who was left to wonder what happened to his $113 million.

The injuries that plagued the team in 2011 are hopefully healed and with another year of experience under their belts, we all hope the Twins are back and playing baseball the way that Twins fans of today expect. We are not interested in seeing the Twins play ball as they did say between 1971-1986 when they never won more than 85 games and finished as high as second only once, we expect to see a winning team on the field or at least a team that is playing like they want to win versus the 2011 bunch that quit early and often.

So, what does history tell us will happen to the Twins in 2012? I want you to keep reading, but the bottom line is that while miracles can happen, it sure does not look good. The Twins were 31 games worse in 2011 than they were in 2010, 31 games, only once in franchise history had a Senators/Twins team played so much worse than they had the previous season and those were the Washington Senators of 1934 who finished the season 33 games worse with a 66-86 mark after advancing to the World Series in 1933 with a 99-53 record. The following season (1935) they won 67 games, one more than the year before.

So how have Senators and Twins teams bounced back from such dismal seasons? The best the Senators could ever do was improve by 27 games back between 1911-1912 and the best the Twins have done since 1961 is improve by 23 games as the 1965 Twins did when they won 102 games coming off a 79 win season in 1964.

But let’s look at more modern times so we will look at the seasons between 1997 and 2011 because it probably makes for a fairer comparison based on free agency and player movement of today. In the last 15 seasons here is what has happened in the AL Central Division.

The Kansas City Royals worst drop-off was in 2004 when the team finished 25 games worse than they did in 2003. The following season, 2005, the Royals finished 2 games worse. The best improvement that the Royals have shown their fans was when they finished 21 games better in 2003 than they had shown in 2002.

The Chicago White Sox worst drop-off was in 2007 when the team finished 18 games worse than they did in 2006. The following season, 2008, the mighty whitey’s finished 17 games better. The best improvement that the White Sox fans have seen was when they finished 20 games better in 2000 than they had shown in 1999.

The Cleveland Indians worst drop-off was in 2002 when the team finished 17 games worse than they did in 2001. The following season, 2003, the Indians finished 6 games worse. The best improvement that the Indians fans have seen was when they finished 18 games better in 2007 than they had shown in 2006.

The Detroit Tigers worst drop-off was 14 games and it happened twice, once between 1997 and 1998 and again from 2007 to 2008. The following season in 1999 the team improved by 4 games and in 2009 the team improved by 12 games. The best improvement that the Tigers have seen was when they finished 29 games better in 2004 (to a 72-90 season) than they had shown in 2003, but, 2003 was the season the Tigers put up a pathetic 43-119 record.

That brings us to the Twins, whose worst drop-off was 31 games in 2011 from their 2010 season. The biggest improvement the Twins have shown during this 15 year period was in 2001 (TK’s last season as manager) when they finished 16 games better than what they showed us in 2000. In the past 15 years the Twins have improved their record from the previous season 8 times for an average improvement in games won over the previous season of 8 games. On the minus side their record has gotten worse from the previous season 7 times for an average of -11.29 but that is obviously skewed by the big -31 of 2011. If the 2012 Twins could match their biggest improvement of say 16 games as they did in 2001, that still only moves the Twins 2012 record up to 79-83. The Twins have to improve by 18 games just to reach the .500 mark and would have to improve by 27 games to reach the 90 win mark. It does not look promising.

The Twins have improved their previous years mark by 18 games or better on 4 occassions. The feat was accomplished by the 1991 team that improved by 21 games, the 1969 team that improved by 18 games, the 1965 team that improved by 23 games and the 1962 team that was 21 games better than the 1961 team. Four times in 50 seasons, not good odds for sure and remember, an 18 game improvement only takes the team to an 81-81 record, or .500 baseball. The team has lost Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey and a number of bit players but then again, they lost 99 games when they had these guys. I know they added Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and brought back Matt Capps but how many wins will these guys put in the “W” column?

What this team needs in order to play respectable baseball is for Joe Mauer to step back to earth from the “Twilight Zone” that he was in most of last year and catch 130 games and play 1B and DH for 10-15 more. I see no reason why this can’t happen, Mauer should come out of the gate madder than hell and show everyone that 2011 was a fluke. I will believe that when I see it. The next issue is Justin Morneau, here I am not nearly as optimistic. Justin was just a shell of himself in 2011 and I worry that Justin Morneau’s baseball career is coming to a premature end. That would be so sad as Justin should have many more years in him as a productive Twins first baseman. I hope I am totally wrong about Morneau, but if I was a betting man I would say “show me you still got it” Justin. I hope that Danny Valencia thought long and hard about his baseball career since the 2011 season ended because if he continues to play in 2012 like he did in 2011, he will be receiving his fan mail in Rochester come the middle of May. Valencia might not be the .311 hitter he was in 2010 but he sure better not be the .246 hitter he was in 2011 either. A little more work with the glove wouldn’t hurt Danny either. The Twins outfield is a mess, Willingham is a left fielder and the Twins need him to play right because Ben Revere can’t throw out his grandmother. So that forces the team to play Revere in center which is OK in itself but that means you need to move Span to right field but Span says he wants to play center. In my humble opinion, any outfield with Revere and Span both playing at the same time is a bad thing. I am not sure how things are going to shake out but come the second half of 2012, Joe Benson will be playing in the Twins outfield some where. The Twins signed Jamey Carroll to play short but the man has never had a full-time job in 10 big league seasons and he will be 38 before the Twins open the exhibition season. Is that a move that a contending team makes? We can hope that Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes back to life and show us that he really is a professional baseball player……come on, really, there is a chance. Alexi Casilla at 2B is an enigma but I still have hope for this 27-year-old with parts of six big league season under his belt. The bullpen is a couple of sharp knives short of a complete set and the starting staff of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, and Jason Marquis would make any manager nervous.

So here it is, you make up your mind, can the Twins compete or will they have to fight and scratch like hell just to reach the .500 mark? Me? Come October, I think we should all be dancing on Target Plaza celebrating manager Ron Gardenhire’s second manager of the year award with a cold drink in our hand if this collection of Twins can win half of their games in 2012. However; if this this team wins 70 or fewer games in 2012, manager Ron Gardenhire may be looking for a job.

Joe Nathan signs with Texas Rangers

Joe Nathan

Former Twins closer Joe Nathan has signed a two-year deal $14.5 million with a team option for a third year ($500K buyout) with the Texas Rangers. The 37-year-old Houston born Nathan gets what he seemed to want the most, to pitch for a team with a chance to win it all. There are reports flying around that the Twins offered Joe “similar money” but with the Twins coming off a 99 loss season they apparently did not convince Joe that they can compete in 2012.

Nathan has pitched for the Twins since he was traded to Minnesota by the San Francisco Giants in November of 2003 along with pitchers Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser for catcher AJ Pierzynski. Nathan has logged a team record 260 saves in 7 seasons in spite of sitting out the entire 2010 season recovering from TJ surgery. Joe had some tough appearances early in 2011 but got stronger as the season progressed.

I would have had no problem with the Twins paying Nathan $7 million on a one year deal but after that I get nervous. I will miss Nathan taking the mound for the Twins in the 9th inning but all good things must come to an end. Historically the Twins have “made their own” closers so I would be surprised if they actually spent free agent money to get one. I wish nothing but the best for Joe Nathan but I think that Joe will find it a bit different pitching in Ranger Ballpark versus pitching in Target Field.

 

The Twins and the Disabled List (DL)

The Twins had a miserable season in 2011 and many blame the Twins slide into the AL central basement on the number of injuries that the Twins endured. But looking at the numbers, injuries alone do not explain the Twins dismal play. The Twins came out of spring training in excellent health but it didn’t take long before players started dropping. It was like a contagious disease all season long, one injury after another. How do you explain it? No one can I think, just a matter of bad luck, sometimes, maybe it was brought on by not knowing how to play your position properly as in the case of Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Later in the season, after the Twins were beaten down and out of the race it seemed like some players just gave up and found it easier to sit on the bench than to get out on the field. The Joe Mauer mystery still remains unanswered. It appears to me that the Twins have several players that do not want to go to the gate unless they are feeling 100%, hell, no one feels 100% everyday. In the real world there are people going to work day in and day out regardless of how they feel for a whole slew of reasons. These players need to understand that they are letting their teammates, fans, and themselves down when they let a minor injury keep them from taking the field. I felt bad for Gardy because he had to make excuses for these malingerers. I wonder what it will take to get some of these guys to “suck it up” and play some baseball? But you think the 2011 Twins had injury problems, check out some of these sad but apparently true injuries that occurred to the boys of summer in a piece that was published back in September of 1992. You may find some former Twins on the list.

So what is the MLB DL and how does it work? In simple terms it works like this. A player may be placed on either the 15-day or the 60-day disabled list, usually depending on the severity or the expected recovery time of the injury. A player may be shifted from the 15-day to the 60-day DL at any time, but not vice-versa. The player may not rejoin the team until 15 or 60 days has elapsed; however, a player’s time on the DL may exceed the specified number of days. Something the Twins know very well. In addition, if a player is sent to the 60-day DL after August 1, he may not return to the active roster for the rest of that season.

The 15-day DL does not count the player on the active roster (comprising the 25-man roster until September 1), whereas the 60-day DL does not require the player to be counted on either the team’s active roster or its 40-man roster; however, a team’s 40-man roster must be full in order for the option of a placement on the 60-day disabled list to be available.

In 2011 MLB instituted a change to the DL policy where as a new 7 day DL was put in place specifically for concussions and brain damage. MLB also put in place a paternity leave policy this season where a team can replace a player who is an expectant father on the roster for 1-3 days in order for them to attend the birth of their child.

Until the late 1980s, there were 10-day and 21-day disabled lists. The number of players who could be placed on each list was limited, and there was much less flexibility about when they could return to action. Back then, players with major league contracts were not allowed to go to the minor leagues for rehabilitation.

But getting back to the Twins situation, I took a look at the Twins injuries for the last 10 seasons 2002-2011 and here is what I found.

Year Record Finish DL Moves DL Days Out for the season
2002 94-67 1st 14 700 Duvall (P)
2003 90-72 1st 10 430 none
2004 92-70 1st 14 593 Mays (P)
2005 83-79 3rd 11 578 Kubel (OF), Balfour (P)
2006 96-66 1st 10 403 none
2007 79-83 3rd 15 995* Liriano (P), Machado (P)
2008 88-75 2nd 11 487 none
2009 87-76 1st 12 551 Bonser (P), Neshek (P)
2010 94-68 1st 18 760 Condrey (P), Nathan (P)
2011 63-99 5th 27 785 none

 * = In addition to Liriano and Machado being out for the season, Perkins, Crain, White, and Rabe all spent 95 or more days on the DL

The table above seems to indicate that the Twins usually average between 10-15 DL moves in a season but the last two seasons have seen a jump in the number of DL moves to 18 and 27 respectively.

From a trainers perspective, like the rest of the Twins organization, changes are few and far between. Up until 2011, the Twins had a head trainer, an assistant trainer and a strength and conditioning coach but in 2011 they added a second assistant trainer.

2002 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2003 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2004 – Jim Kahmann (HT), Rick Mcwane (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2005 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2006 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Randy Popple (SCC)
2007 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2008 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2009 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2010 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)
2011 – Rick Mcwane (HT), Dave Pruemer (AT), Tony Leo (AT), Perry Castellano (SCC)

 

Popple and Castellano each have served as strength and conditioning coach for 5 years. When Popple was the SCC, the Twins averaged 541 DL days per season, during the last 5 years under Castellano, the Twins have averaged 716 DL days. coincidence? Maybe. Of course you can’t compare apples to apples here because the players change but still, 175 DL days difference.

We all have an opinion on what Twins we think are always hurt and always on the DL but the table below will show you over the last 10 years who has been on the DL most frequently. The table covers the years of 2002 through 2011 and players that have two or fewer DL trips are not listed.

Player DL appearances Season with the Twins
Nick Punto 9 7
Joe Mauer 6 8
Francisco Liriano 5 7
Kevin Slowey 5 5
Scott Baker 4 7
Alexi Casilla 4 6
Michael Cuddyer 4 11
Justin Morneau 4 9
Glenn Perkins 4 6
Grant Balfour 3 4
Lew Ford 3 5
Torii Hunter 3 11
Corey Koskie 3 7
Jose Mijares 3 4
Pat Neshek 3 5
Luis Rivas 3 6
Shannon Stewart 3 4
Rondell White 3 2

Congratulations to Francisco Liriano on his No-Hitter

May 3, 2011 – Francisco Liriano no-hits the Chicago White Sox 1-0 at on a chilly night at U.S. Cellular Field. Liriano entered the game with a 1-4 record and a 9.13 ERA. Liriano faced 30 batters, walking six and threw 123 pitches, 66 for strikes. Liriano only struck out two White Sox batters. According to Francisco, he has never pitched a complete game, not even in the minors where some games are 7 only innings.

Update – More on No-Hitter – from ELIAS

His 9.13 ERA entering the game was the highest for any pitcher coming into a start in which he threw a no-hitter (minimum of five starts). The previous high was St. Louis’ Jose Jimenez’ 6.69 ERA when he threw his no-hitter, June 25, 1999 against Arizona.

His mound opponent, Edwin Jackson, threw a no-hitter last season. Liriano became the first pitcher in Major League history to throw a no-hitter against an opposing starter who had thrown a no-hitter the season before.

Liriano became just the second left-handed pitcher to throw a no-hitter against the White Sox in Chicago, the other being Jesse Tannehill for Boston in 1904.

Liriano walked six and struck out two, becoming the second pitcher since 1900 with four more walks than strikeouts.

Liriano’s two strikeouts were the fewest for a pitcher in a no-hitter since the Dodgers’ Jerry Reuss struck out two San Francisco Giants in his no-hitter in 1980.

Liriano became the fifth pitcher born in the Dominican Republic to throw a no-hitter, the others being Juan Marichal (1963), Ramon Martinez (1995), Jose Jimenez (1999) and Ubaldo Jimenez (2010).

GM Smith and Gardy need to make some moves

GM Bill Smith

April 30, 2011 – Damn! I am more upset at watching the Twins lose to Kansas City and Tampa the last few days than the Twins are, what is up with that? After watching the Twins lose again last night at Kansas City, I am convinced the time has come to make some moves. There is an old saying that says that the first thing you need to do when you find yourself in a hole is to STOP DIGGING! This team needs a major shake-up, a wake-up call, but I am not sure exactly what should be done first, there are so many things to do. The Twins need to find a shortstop; Casilla has had his chances time and time again and not delivered, time to move on. I don’t think Plouffe is the answer either but you might as well give him his shot. The bullpen is a mess, no one knows their roles and how long can the Twins baby Nathan? Put him in a 7th or 8th inning role and get on with it. Get some stability in the bullpen again. Liriano will never be the ace pitcher everyone has envisioned, he has the skills but he does not have the demeanor or the ability to use his skills. You have two choices here, turn him into a reliever or trade him at a diminished value. Liriano doesn’t want to be a reliever? Tough, he isn’t pitching like a big league starter right now; he might be just what they need in the bullpen. Put Slowey in the rotation to replace Liriano and give Blackburn a couple more starts to see what he can do. If he can’t get on the straight and narrow, then call up Gibson and plug him in as a starter. As much as I hate to do it, the Twins should play Cuddyer at 2B until Nishioka gets back from his broken leg. An outfield of Delmon, Span, and Kubel works for me or keep Tosoni in the outfield and bat Kubel at DH. If Repko doesn’t start hitting soon I send him down and keep Tosoni as the 4th outfielder. Forget about bringing up Ben Revere, what good is an outfield with both Span and Revere in it? Catching? You just have to make do with Butera and Holm until Mauer can get healthy again. I have to wonder what the real story is with Joe Mauer. Justin Morneau has been just plain abysmal, where is the clutch hitter we used to know? I sure hope that Morneau does not go through with what happened to Jimmie Hall after he was beaned. Valencia? Sure he leads the team in RBI’s but he could be doing so much better. What can’t I shake the feeling that Valencia is developing an attitude and thinks he is a star? Maybe it is all that time he spent hanging around A-rod? Cuddyer? Maybe the pressure of playing for a new contract is getting to him, he has not hit anywhere like he should be hitting, right now he looks like a 7 or 8 hitter at best.

You think I am too harsh here in my thoughts? Come on now, the team is 9-16 after 25 games and 15% of the games are behind them. Only three teams in baseball have won as few as 9 games, the Astros, the Padres and the Twins. I don’t think the Twins are this bad but so far they have done nothing to make you think they can get better in the near future and get back in the Central Division race where they are already 8 games back and the calendar still shows it is April. The team continues to score at a pace of 3 runs a game being our scored 128 to 80, that will not get you many wins with this pitching staff. Right or wrong, Twins management has to be thinking that Joe Vavre might be the easiest scapegoat and send him packing and bring in some fresh blood as a hitting coach. Oh, and let’s not forget our third base coach Steve Liddle in all of this. His approach to sending and stopping runners at 3B hasn’t been much to write home about either.

Ron Gardenhire

When I watch this team play I see no life, no one is having fun out there, it is just a job. At the end of the game they have their heads down as they slowly shuffle down to the clubhouse. Where is the fight in this team? The team plays like they think all they have to do is show up and they will win, the times have changed boys, the times have changed, look at the AL Central standings, it reads Royals, Indians, Tigers, White Sox and the Twins. When is someone going to kick, scream, yell and cuss that this crap has got to stop and get out on the field and lead by example by getting a clutch hit or putting an opposing batter on his butt? Do the Twins have a leader? I have not seen one, but then again Gardy and Bill Smith have not shown much leadership either.