Time to see what the baseball crystal ball has to say for 2015

The 2015 MLB season finally opens later today when the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals. So that means I had better get my predictions done here and now. Normally I try to do these predictions about a week or so before the season opens but the last couple of weeks I have had some computer problems and that has limited my postings on this site. This is my second hard drive crash in the last 11 months, what is up with that? Apparently just writing about the Twins brings bad luck. Luckily I have a back-up laptop with me but it doesn’t have all my images and tools that my original laptop has on it plus it is much sloooooower. So let’s get to it before something happens to this laptop.

The first thing we have to do of course is look at our Minnesota Twins. We have a new manager in Paul Molitor and a number of new coaches but we don’t have enough new and younger players. I think the Twins will break down and bring up Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, Miguel Sano,  Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios before the All-Star game. Some may be just for a look-see but others won’t see the minor league busses again. Before the Ervin Santana suspension was announced I had the Twins finishing at 78-84, now I am not so optimistic. After consulting with the numbers experts here is what we came up with.

Not great but a six game improvement over last year.
Not great, but a six game improvement over last year. Maybe bringing back those black spruce trees is not such a bad idea….

…………………………………..

NL East

1. Washington Nationals

2. Florida Marlins (wild card)

3. New York Mets

4. Atlanta Braves

5. Philadelphia Phillies

NL Central

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

2. St. Louis Cardinals (wild card)

3. Cincinnati Reds

4. Milwaukee Brewers

5. Chicago Cubs

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

2. San Francisco Giants

3. San Diego Padres

4. Colorado Rockies

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

AL East

1. Toronto Blue Jays

2. Boston Red Sox (wild card)

3. Baltimore Orioles

4. New York Yankees

5. Tampa Rays

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians

2. Detroit Tigers

3. Kansas City Royals

4. Chicago White Sox

5. Minnesota Twins

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners

2. Los Angeles Angeles (wild card)

3. Texas Rangers

4. Oakland A’s

5. Houston Astros

World Series

Nationals over the Mariners

Santana suspension shock to Twins and to Twins fans

I was out on the back fields of the CenturyLink Sports Complex on Friday afternoon watching the Twins AA and AAA teams take on the Red Sox AA and AAA teams. Both games started about 1 PM but I was particularly interested in the AA Chattanooga game and was surprised to see Mark Hamburger start the game for Doug Mientkiewicz ‘s gang. I was disappointed that Miguel Sano was not playing but Byron Buxton, Adam Walker, and Max Kepler all played. Once of the hardest hit balls in that game was a bullet line drive over the head of the Red Sox minor leaguer center fielder off the bat of Max Kepler who was DHing in this game. I had asked Max earlier how his arm was doing and he said it was good but obviously management is still not ready to play him in the field, at least they didn’t on this particular day. Kepler has a beautiful level swing and line drives just shoot off his bat, with his size if he applied some lift to the ball he would hit a bunch of home runs.

The crowd watching the games was pretty small, the players not playing in either game and sitting in the stands watching the games out numbered the fans by about five to one. As normal GM Terry Ryan, with stop watch in hand was standing between the two fields and keeping an eye on both games. I decided to give the poor guy a break today and not bother him with my questions and comments. About 2 or 2:30 PM I looked over where Ryan had been standing and he was nowhere to be seen. That seemed very unusual to me because Ryan always seems to be out there when games are under way on the back fields, he seldom leaves before the games end. After a couple of hours in the hot sun I decided I had seen enough and headed home myself.

2015 Minnesota Twins Photo DayAround 5:30 PM I sat down on my PC to look at some of the pictures I had taken at the ballpark when I was shocked to see a report that Twins pitcher Ervin Santana had been suspended for 80 games for PED use. There was no chatter about this at the ballpark earlier and news like this would have spread like a wild-fire. Shortly there after Press Releases were flying in every direction. MLB had their PR announcing the suspension, the Twins had their PR statement on the suspension, The Twins sent out another PR on the recall of Aaron Thompson and of course Santana had his own PR through the players union which actually seemed to have a time stamp even before the official MLB PR regarding his suspension. I don’t know how the process works for these kinds of deals but MLB must give the player and team a heads up on what is coming in an upcoming PR and then at the agreed upon time everyone hits the send button on their press releases.

This suspension is a killer for everyone, Santana himself, the Twins team, and of course the fans. Santana loses about $6.5 million, the team loses a good starting pitcher, and the fans lose even more hope in a team that wasn’t expected to be in the playoff hunt but had hopes of at least making a run at .500 baseball.

Now as the new season is about to begin and fans all across Twins Territory prepare to watch their new team strut their stuff in 2015 this suspension strikes clear out of the blue and Twins haters come firing out of the woodwork to blame Ervin Santana and the Twins organization. I am not saying Santana is innocent here but who knows for sure if he took this on purpose or if he indeed did take it without knowing he did so. I haven’t heard any whispers about Santana and PED’s previously so I am willing to give the man the benefit of the doubt here. Still it hurts to lose a pitcher of his caliber for half the season.

How can you blame the Twins organization for this? They obviously would not have gone after Santana and paid him the money they did if they had any idea that something like this would happen. But yet it is another ding on team that has been barely treading water since 2010. The Twins have had their share of bad luck, injuries, and bad decisions by management. Twins fans are grasping for anything that will show them that there is reason for hope but it seems like when the Twins take a step forward they also take a step back and it is hard to get anywhere at that pace. The ballclub is mired in this muck and their only hope is their cadre of young future stars that are banging on the clubhouse door. The Twins have spent the last year or two bragging about the potential of their farm system and most everyone in baseball agrees that the Twins have some young stars in the wings but yet the Twins keep signing mediocre players to play at Target field and keep sending the young guns to Rochester and Chattanooga.

It is like a poker game, you can only bluff so long before you have to put your cards on the table and show us what you got. I think it is a bunch of BS that you can bring up a young player too soon and traumatize him to the point that he will never be the player that they could have been with another year or two in the minors. The guys have played baseball their entire lives and they have had their share of butt-kickings, losses, and lessons learned, another humiliation or two at the big league level won’t kill them. What is the old saying? What doesn’t kill you helps to build your character. Football and basketball have no problems bringing kids straight to the big leagues when warranted, why can’t baseball do more of this? I think it is time for the Twins to bring their young studs to the table and let Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Jose Berrios play some ball at Target Field. Give us Twins fans a reason to come to the ballpark and see something new instead of the same old wait until next year crap. The Twins can’t spend $250 million dollars on player salaries so they have to look for new and creative ways to be competitive, maybe the old tried and proven older methods needs to be tossed out on their ear and some new radical ideas need to be tried.  What have you got to lose? Loyalty and experience are great but if you have young players that appear to be better than what you have on the big league club, why not give the young guns a chance to prove they are what you think and say they are.

So Mr. Ryan, do yourself and all of us Twins fans a favor and bring up these young stars sooner than later because every hit they get at Chattanooga or Rochester is one less hit they will get in Minnesota. If these guys show us they can’t pitch or hit at the big league level then we are ahead of the game, we know something that we didn’t know before. Potential is worth nothing unless it can be realized. Taking Mike Pelfrey from the bullpen and putting him in the starting rotation again isn’t exactly trying something new, how can you expect something new and better when you keep doing the same old things?

 

News about new Twins, former Twins, and Twins to be

Ervin SantanaThe Twins today signed free agent pitcher Ervin Santana to a four-year $55 million deal. According to ESPN, the right-hander is guaranteed $54 million over the four years, with a conditional option worth $14 million in 2019 if he throws more than 200 innings. He will receive a $1 million buyout if the Twins don’t exercise the option. The contract sets a new Twins high water mark for a free agent spending, eclipsing the $49 million deal with Ricky Nolasco last year. Because he was tendered by the Braves, Santana will cost the Twins a draft choice, a second rounder since their first round selection was protected due to the Twins poor record last year. The most recent (2006) Twins second round pick to play for Minnesota was outfielder Joe Benson. To view a complete list of Minnesota Twins round two selections you need to click here.

Santana who just turned 32 yesterday is from the Dominican Republic and pitched for the Atlanta Braves this past season going 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA in his first and only season in the National League. Santana was originally signed by the Angels in 2000 and made his major league debut with them in 2005. 2015 will be Santana’s eleventh in the big leagues and he has a career 119-100 record with a no-hitter against the Cleveland Indians in 2011 on his resume. In his 10 previous seasons Santana has averaged 188 innings per season and he has a career mark of 7.2 SO/9.

Over all this should be a very nice addition to the Twins starting pitching staff. I would expect Ricky Nolasco to pitch better than he did in 2014, Phil Hughes may not put up the same kind of numbers this season as he did last but he should still be a very good pitcher, Kyle Gibson should be improved with another season under his belt, and who ever fills out the rotation in the fifth spot should make this staff the best the Twins have had in many years. I like it!

Chris Colabello
Chris Colabello

During the just concluded baseball winter meetings the Twins lost Chris Colabello to the Toronto Blue Jays on a waiver claim.

J.R. Graham
J.R. Graham

The Twins picked up 24-year-old right-handed pitcher J.R. Graham from the Atlanta Braves via the Rule 5 draft this past Thursday. Graham must make the Twins 25 man roster in 2015 or be returned to Atlanta or a trade could be worked out with Atlanta for the Twins to keep Graham but not be forced to put him on the 25 man roster. The New York Mets selected Twins LHP Sean Gilmartin in the same Rule 5 draft.

 

 

Brayan Villarreal
Brayan Villarreal

MLBtradeRumors has reported that the Twins have also signed 26-year-old right-handed pitcher Brayan Villarreal to split contract with an invitation to spring training. Villarreal last pitched in the majors in 2013 and spent last season in AAA with the Red Sox organization. During spring training with the Detroit Tigers in 2013 Villarreal’s family was the victim of a kidnapping attempt in his native Venezuela. Armed robbers had broken into the family home and threatened his father and 14-year-old brother in an attempt to extort money. Police however, and were able to free the hostages without injury.

Juan Berenguer
Juan Berenguer

Former Twins pitcher Juan Berenguer filed suit this week in U.S. District Court alleging that “personnel from various entities in Minnesota illegally obtained Berenguer’s private, personal and confidential driver’s license information without a legitimate or permissible law-enforcement purpose or any other lawful purpose.” The suit says his private information was viewed more than 125 times between 2005 and 2011, in violation of the federal Driver’s Privacy Protection Act.

The Arizona Fall League this past Wednesday announced its 2014 Top Prospects Team. Twins minor league outfielders Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario both made the team.

Torii Hunter
Torii Hunter

I didn’t write alot about the Twins recent free agent signing of outfielder Torii Hunter and to be honest I am really torn by this. How can you not like that great smile and that bubbly personality but yet the man is 39 years old and he will bank about $10 million for his efforts.  This former and now current Twin is one of my all-time favorite Minnesota Twins but I am not sure how much Hunter has left in the tank. The Twins plan to use him in right field and plan to move Oswaldo Arcia to left. I had really hoped that the Twins would give prospect Eddie Rosario a real shot at left field but now that looks like it won’t happen unless either Arcia or Hunter fails big time. Rosario is not really a center fielder but the Twins have had worse players out there the last few years, still, I don’t see the Twins giving Rosario a shot there. I think the biggest plus from adding Hunter will simply be his presence on the team, his will to win and professional attitude can’t help but rub off on the teams younger players and show them the path they need to take and the effort they need to put forth to once again make the Minnesota Twins winners.

Chris Parmelee
Chris Parmelee

I just saw on MLBTradeRumors that the Twins have designated Chris Parmelee for assignment to make room on the roster for Ervin Santana. I didn’t see this move coming at this stage of the off-season. Parmelee was the Twins first round selection in 2006 (20th over all) and made his big league debut in September of 2011. Parmelee played sparingly for the Twins from 2011-2014 and just never lived up to what the Twins expected from this former first rounder.