Analyzing Starting Pitcher Trends: From Aces to Relievers

I have followed MLB since about 1956 by buying baseball cards, by listening to baseball games on the radio, by subscribing to The Sporting News and reading whatever box scores I could find. But how things have changed over the years, including pitching. One of the biggest changes has to do with starting pitching.

Starting pitchers used to pitch and hit back in the day. They would start every fourth day but over time the starting rotation changed to four to five. Recently some teams have gone to six day rotations and it is not that uncommon nowadays for games to be pitched totally by relief pitchers. Relief pitchers back then were “injured” starters or starters that for one reason or another had become ineffective.

Deal or No Deal?

Late on February 4th rumors started swirling that the Boston Red Sox had finally moved Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The deal supposedly also involved the Twins and in the deal Minnesota traded arguably their top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers who then flipped him to the Red Sox.

Brusdar Graterol

According to ELIAS – David Price

Price keeps Twins bats in the park

David Price (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

David Price allowed no home runs in seven innings, improving his record to 3–2 in Boston’s 6–3 home win over Minnesota last night. In 114? career innings against the Twins, Price has surrendered just five home runs, a rate of one every 22.9 innings. That’s the seventh-best rate by any active pitcher with at least 100 innings pitched against a particular opponent.

They weren’t what we expected them to be

With no outs in the bottom of the seventh, coach brings in a new pitcher.

The June amateur draft started in 1965 and the Minnesota Twins have had 72 first round selections including supplemental/compensation picks. Nine of those first round picks have been left-handed pitchers (eight were collegiate picks and one was from high school) with Tyler Jay being the most recent lefty being selected in the first round in 2015. So how have these pitchers fared for the Twins?

1973Eddie Bane – Drafted in round 1, 11th over-all out of Arizona State University and went straight to the big leagues making his debut on July 4, 1973 at Met Stadium in a start against the Kansas City Royals. The 5’9″ Bane didn’t figure in the decision but pitched well in a 5-4 loss to the Royals. Injuries hindered Bane’s career but Bane himself said that he just wasn’t good enough to be a big league pitcher. Bane’s big league career consisted of 44 games for the Twins with a 7-13 record and 4.66 ERA. Bane became a free agent in October 1977 but never saw big league action again. WAR with the Twins was a -1.0.

1982Bryan Oelkers – Drafted in round 1, 4th over-all (selected one pick earlier than the Mets selection of Dwight Gooden) out of Wichita State University. Oelkers was a 20th round pick of the Chicago Cubs in 1979 but he chose not to sign.  Oelkers was only the second player born in Spain to reach the major leagues. Oelkers debuted in the big leagues with only 8 minor league games in his resume the following season on April 9, 1983 at the Kingdome in a start against the Mariners. Oelkers had a good start going 6.2 innings giving up only 3 hits and 2 earned runs but he came away with his first big league loss. Oelkers ended his first and only season with the Twins with an 0-5 record and a 8.65 while allowing 56 hits in 34.1 innings. In January of 1986 the Twins traded Bryan Oelkers and Ken Schrom to the Cleveland Indians for Ramon Romero and Roy Smith. Oelkers pitched for Cleveland in 1983 going 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA in 35 games. Oelkers pitched in the Expos, Cubs and Cardinals minor league systems  but never reached the big leagues again. WAR with the Twins was -1.3.

1992Dan Serafini – Was the Twins round 1 selection and 26th over-all out of Serra High School in San Mateo, California. In 1996 Baseball America had him rated as the 76th best prospect and the Twins called Dan Serafini up to pitch a game against the New York Yankees on June 25 at the Metrodome. Here is what Serafini had to say about that experience in a 2013 interview –

“It was not an easy team to pitch against for my first time playing in the big leagues, but it was a great memory. It was kind of funny. The Twins wouldn’t let me into the locker room before the game. They didn’t want any animosity in the locker room because they hadn’t sent anyone down (to Triple-A) yet. I had to stay in a hotel and then on game day I got to show up right before the game started so that I could get ready to play. It wasn’t the greatest experience, but it was still a good experience. I got to the big leagues!”

 You can see the entire interview here. Serafini’s start lasted 4.1 innings and he gave up 7 hits and 5 earned runs and was saddled with the loss in a Yankees 6-2 over Minnesota. That was the only game that Serafini pitched in a Twins uniform in 1996. Serafini spent portions of 1997 and 1998 in Minnesota but as spring training ended in 1999 the Twins sold Dan Serafini to the Chicago Cubs. Serafini career numbers with the Twins were  9-6 in 35 games with a 5.88 ERA. Serafini went on to pitch for the Cubs, Pirates, Reds and eventually the Rockies not to mention pitching in Japan, Mexico and Independent ball. Appears to have hung up his jock strap after the 2013 season. His WAR with Twins was a -0.6.

1994Travis Miller – Was a supplementary 1st round selection and 34th pick over-all from Kent State University for the Twins not being able to sign 1993 first round pick catcher Jason Varitek. Miller’s debut at the Metrodome on August 25, 1996 against the Rangers was one he would like to forget, one inning pitched with five hits and two walks including two home runs allowed and seven earned runs and he took the defeat in a 13-2 Twins loss. Miller however continued to pitch for the Twins albeit primarily in relief from 1996-2002 until the Twins released him in June of 2002 and he never pitched in the big leagues again. His Twins career lasted all or parts of seven seasons in which he appeared in 203 games winning 7 and losing 18 with a 5.05 ERA and a Twins WAR of 1.2.

1995Mark Redman – Was a Tigers 42 round pick in 1992 but did not sign and he went on to be the Twins first round selection in 1995 and 13th pick over-all. Debuted in a start against the Mariners at the Metrodome on July 24, 1999 and got a no decision for his efforts in which he lasted 4.2 innings and gave up 3 earned run on 4 hits and three walks. The Twins won the game 10-3. Redman was primarily a starter for Minnesota from 1999-2001 going 15-13 with a 4.86 ERA before being traded to the Tigers for closer Todd Jones. Redman was an All-Star with the Royals in 2006. Redman who pitched in the big leagues for 10 seasons with eight different teams posted a 3.6 WAR with the Twins.

 1998Ryan Mills – Was originally drafted in 1995 by the Yankees in round 13 but didn’t sign and the Twins scooped him up in round 1 with the 6th over-all pick out of Arizona State University and signed for a $2 million bonus. After seven seasons Mills had a 17-40 minor league record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP before the Twins told him to look for other employment. Mills never put on a Twins uniform.

Glen Perkins 20152004Glen Perkins – Perkins was selected by the Minnesota Twins in the first round and 22nd over-all of the 2004 amateur draft out of the University of Minnesota as compensation for losing Eddie Guardado and signed for a $1.425 million bonus. His big league debut took place September 21, 2006 at Fenway Park as a reliever in a Twins 6-0 loss and he pitched 1.1 innings without allowing a hit. Perkins was originally a starter but after putting up an ERA of 5.89 in 2009 and 5.82 in 2010 the Twins put him in the bullpen where he has flourished as a closer when he is not injured. Perkins has been a Minnesota Twin for all or parts of 11 seasons and has a Twins WAR of 8.8 and has made the All-Star team three times.

2009 – Matt Bashore – Bashore was a first round and 46th over-all supplemental pick for the loss of Dennys Reyes. Injuries kept Bashore from achieving his dream and the Twins let him go after the 2011 season when he pitched in Elizabethton for the second time after sitting out 2010 due to injury. Never wore a Twins uniform and walked away with a $751,550 Twins signing bonus.

2015 – Tyler Jay – Twins first round selection and sixth player taken over-all from Illinois when he was the highest ever MLB draft choice and signed by Minnesota for $3.8 million. Jay was a reliever in college but the Twins are transitioning him to a starting role. Jay was promoted to Chattanooga (AA) in July but only appeared in 5 games there pitching 14 innings before being placed on the DL in early August with a neck/shoulder injury. Additional info on his injury can be found here, not exactly promising news.

So there you are, 57 years worth of LHP drafted in the first round by the Minnesota Twins, nine left-handed pitchers, eight out of college and one out of high school drafted by the Twins and what have we had to show for it? Glen Perkins has been the only one to really pan out and he didn’t come into his own until he was moved to the bullpen. You expect your first round picks to be All-Star caliber players and the Twins have had just two. You have to wonder, with their dismal track record why do the Twins even bother drafting LHP in round one? Why waste a first round pick on LHP?

Let’s look at the rest of the league

According to ELIAS

Twins finally get to Price

The Minnesota Twins rapped out 11 hits against David Price in their 11-9 win in Boston yesterday, ending years of frustration against him. Price entered the game 9-3 with a 2.12 ERA against the Twins, having won his last five starts against them. Five runs tied the most that Minnesota had ever scored against Price, and its 11 hits were three more than in any other game.

According to ELIAS

Buehrle beats the Twins for the 30th time

Mark Buehrle  2015Mark Buehrle registered his 30th career win against the Twins with a victory in Toronto last night. That’s the most career wins by any active pitcher versus one major-league team. Buehrle notched his first 27 wins against Minnesota while pitching for the White Sox and the last three for the Blue Jays. In baseball’s expansion era (1961 to date), only five other American League pitchers have recorded 30 or more wins against a particular team: Bert Blyleven vs. the Royals (34); Jack Morris (32), Mickey Lolich (30) and Jim Kaat (30) vs. the Indians; and Jim Palmer vs. the Yankees (30). Source: ELIAS

The Twins have faced Mark Buehrle 53 times (51 starts), the 51 starts being the most vs. any pitcher in club history, ahead of Tommy John and Frank Tanana (each with 47). Torii Hunter has 97 career at-bats against Buehrle, the second most against him all-time, trailing only Michael Cuddyer (113). Joe Mauer has a career average of .206 (13-for-63) against Buehrle, marking his fifth-lowest against any pitcher for his career (C.J. Wilson – .129, Paul Byrd – .167, CC Sabathia – .171 and David Price – .176). Kurt Suzuki is hitting .387 (12-for-31) in his career off Buehrle. Source: Twins Game Notes

The four losses to the Blue Jays mark the first time that Toronto has ever swept a four game series from the lads from Minnesota.

According to Elias

Joe Maddon
Joe Maddon

Ray’s manager Joe Maddon, never a slave to convention, slotted his DH Sean Rodriguez in the ninth spot in his batting order, but S-Rod was the right man at the right time, producing a home run and three RBIs to help David Price to a 5-1 win over the Twins on Saturday evening at Target Field. In all major-league batting orders that have included a DH since the rule was adopted in the American League 41 years ago, not even one percent of all starting DHs have batted ninth in the lineup. (The most common slots: 29 percent of starting DHs have batted fourth, 21 percent fifth, 16 percent third and 14 percent sixth.)

More of This and That

It is 10:30 A.M. and the ole digital thermometer shows a -11.1 degrees but at least it is bright and sunny. I a trying to put a positive spin on the brutal winter we are having here in Minnesota this year, an “old school” winter just like I remember them as I was growing up in Taylors Falls. Back in the days when I had to ride a rickety old school bus seven miles each way to and from school and I don’t remember school being cancelled due to the cold. I am sitting about 10 miles west of Target Field and I can picture what the ballpark must look like as it sits there snow-covered and frozen over. But in just a few months the snow will be gone, the grass will be green and baseball will once again be played there. We just returned from a week-long Caribbean cruise where the temps were always in the 70’s and 80’s and the water was in liquid form, it is sooooo easy to forget that winter exists when you are relaxing on a cruise ship. But it won’t be long and I will be hanging out at Hammond Stadium and I am anxious to see the improvements that have been made there. Maybe the Minnesota Twins themselves will show improvement too, you never know, stranger things have happened.

I read today that the Twins and Fox Sports North will telecast all the Twins home spring training games. BRAVO! Smart move by the Twins to give fans back here in Minnesota that can’t take a Florida trip for what ever reason to see some of the Twins prospects playing ball this spring. You give someone a taste of something good and you can count on them coming back for more. As they have for the last few years the Twins will broadcast all the spring training games on KTWN radio. For an old guy like me, there is something very relaxing when you get to listen to a baseball game on the radio.

Max Kepler at Home Sweet Home baseball camp
Max Kepler at Home Sweet Home baseball camp

I have a ticket for TwinsFest on Saturday and I am excited about hanging out with some baseball crazy Twins fans and to see how the Twins will put on their first TwinsFest at Target Field, it will be interesting I think. The price for this event and the autographs keep climbing and I know it is a Twins Community Fund charity event but if the Twins are not careful they will price it out of reach for the average Twins fan. One of players I am most interested in seeing again is 1B/OF prospect Max Kepler who will be making his first trip to Minnesota and Target Field, hopefully he will be able to call this ballpark home in the not too distant future. Kepler has a busy off-season and one of those events had him participating in the Berlin Home Sweet Home baseball camp. It is always great to see Twins players giving their time to children and allowing them to get up close and personal with a baseball hero. Great job Max!

Andrew Albers 2013The Twins have agreed to transfer starter Andrew Albers to the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO), reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams. Albers has agreed to terms with his new club as well, making the deal complete. The 28-year-old Albers was a great story for the Twins last year but with the Twins free agent starting pitcher signings this past off-season Albers had little chance of making the team this year much less joining the starting rotation. Albers was originally a 10th round selection by the San Diego Padres in 2008 but was released prior to the 2010 season. Albers then hooked up with Quebec, an independent team in the Canadian-American Association and he spent the 2010 season there. The Twins signed the left-handed Albers as a free agent in March of 2011 and he made his major league debut with the Twins as a starter on August 6, 2013 in a 7-0 trashing of the Kansas City Royals.  Albers won his first two starts as a big leaguer by allowing no runs on just 6 hits in 17.1 innings. Albers finished the season with a 2-5 record and a 4.05 ERA. Albers was named the Minnesota Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year for 2013. With a salary reportedly set to land in the “high six figures,” Albers stands to earn significantly more than he would have if he ended up in the minors. He also gets a chance to test the open market next year, as he will become a free agent after his season with Hanwha. Had he stayed with Minnesota, Albers would not have been able to become a free agent until 2019. Sounds like a win-win proposition for Albers and the Twins.

The big news in baseball yesterday was the New York Yankees announced signing of Masahiro Tanaka in a stupendous seven-year deal for $155 million. Tanaka is only 25 but if it was my money, I would have had a very difficult time spending it on a pitcher that has not thrown a single pitch in the major leagues. The Yankees were desperate for more young starting pitching and only time will tell if this was a smart move or not. This will be a fun story to follow in 2014. If I was going to spend that much money, I would have traded for David Price from Tampa and signed him to a long-term deal.

While I was out cruising the Caribbean MLB baseball announced that New York Yankees Alex Rodriguez‘s appeal was complete and that he had been suspended for the 2014 season. I have only one comment on A-Rod, this suspension is well deserved and I don’t plan to spend any more time writing about him in 2014.

Sam MeleFormer Twins manager Sam Mele turned 92 just a couple of days ago (January 21). Mele took over as the Twins skipper from the fired Cookie Lavagetto during the 1961 season and led the team to the 1965 World Series which they ended up losing in seven games to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Mele remained the Twins manager until owner Calvin Griffith let him go during the 1967 season. Mele is now the oldest living person to wear a Minnesota Twins uniform. SABR bio. Happy Birthday Sam and many more!

Ken SchromI completed a fun interview with Ken Schrom, former Twins pitcher (1983-1985) and now president of the Corpus Christi Hooks (AA – Houston Astros) on Tuesday and I will post it here in the very near future so make sure you check that out. You can listen to Ken tell you how he was cut by a team that he was pitching for when he as actually part of the ownership group of the same team.

The Twins announced on January 17th that they have signed all three of their arbitration eligible players for the 2014 season when they agreed to terms with left-handed pitcher Brian Duensing, right-handed pitcher Anthony Swarzak and third baseman Trevor Plouffe on one-year contracts, avoiding arbitration. Duensing will earn $2 million in 2014, while Swarzak will earn $935,000 and Plouffe will earn $2.35 million. The last time the Twins went to arbitration was with Kyle Lohse in 2006 when Lohse was declared the winner when he asked for $3.95 million and the Twins countered with $3.4 million. The last time the Twins won an arbitration case was in 2004 when Johan Santana asked for $2.45 million and the Twins offered $1.6 million.

Earlier this month the team announced that single-game tickets for the 2014 season at Target Field go on sale to the general public at 10 a.m. on Saturday, February. 22. In addition, tickets for the 2014 Home Opener against the Oakland Athletics on Monday, April 7 will go on sale starting at 4 p.m. on Friday, January 24 in conjunction with the start of TwinsFest. As in previous seasons, the Twins will apply variable pricing to all tickets for the 2014 season. Per-game prices for both single-game and season tickets will be based on factors such as time of year, date and opponent. The five-tier variable pricing structure will apply to all single-game tickets sold on Saturday, February. 22. Beginning the next day, Sunday, February 23, the Twins will apply demand-based pricing to all seating sections of Target Field for the 2014 season. Demand-based pricing, which prices tickets according to fan demand, is a practice that has now become very common. The system, which was implemented at Target Field in 2011, applies only to single-game ticket sales and does not affect Season Ticket Holder pricing. As of today I still can’t find any single game ticket prices on the Twins web site.