Tag: Carl Pavano

How they will finish in 2012

 

Mr. Einstein

With the 2012 baseball season just around the corner, if you don’t count that stupid two game series that the A’s and Mariners played and split in Japan, it is time for us here in Twins Trivia to look into the crystal ball and see what is in store for us this season. They say that baseball is a simple game, all you need to do is hit the ball, pitch the ball and pick-up the ball but I thought I would run it by Mr. Einstein just to be sure.

East

 1. Tampa Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
 

West

1. Los Angeles Angels 
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A’s
 

Central

1. Detroit Tigers (91-71)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80)
3. Minnesota Twins (78-84)
4. Kansas City Royals (76-86)
5. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
 

The Detroit Tigers are far and way the best team in the division and should be up by 10 games at the All-Star break and have a cake walk the rest of the way. However; having picked the Tigers to win the AL Central, the team is certainly not without its problems. The Tigers defense if they continue to pursue going down the Miguel Cabrera at 3B path will be atrocious but I see manager Jim Leyland changing that plan before he gets out of April. But even after Leyland addresses the 3B situation, the Bengals still have defense problems at 1B, 2B, SS, and LF. It will be fun to watch the Tigers hit but when they are in the field it will be a totally different story. The Tiger bullpen is solid although there is no way in the world that closer Jose Valverde has another year in 2012 like he had in 2011. The Tigers other major issue is starting pitching where they have a reigning Cy Young award winner in Justin Verlander followed by Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and the Tigers just announced that Drew Smyly won the last starting spot.  Who is Drew Smyly? Fister, and Scherzer are workable starters on a pennant contender but Porcello and who ever the Tigers have slotted for number 5 will not cut the mustard and the Tigers are going to have to make some moves to fill those holes.

The Cleveland Indians continue to improve albeit very slowly and the team has worked hard to try to improve its starting rotation that includes Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jiminez, Derek Lowe, Jeanmar Gomez, and Josh Tomlin. Twins cast-off Kevin Slowey could not make this starting rotation. Not a great starting rotation, but I have seen a lot worse. The Indians offense lost Gardy Sizemore to injury once again but Sizemore’s best days are now behind him anyway so that is not as great a loss as some may think. On offense the Indians need outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to bounce back after an injury plagued 2011, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to continue to show improvement after a breakout season last year, 2B Jason Kipnis to show that he is for real, Michael Brantley needs to prove he is a legit lead-off hitter, Lonnie Chisenhall to hit to his potential and to earn his way back as the Indians starting 3B, and for 35-year-old Travis Hafner to stay healthy and hit like he can as the teams DH.

I like the Kansas City Royals a lot because of the nice young players they have like Eric Hosmer at 1B, former 3B and now outfielder Alex Gordon, Billy Butler as the DH, Alcides Escobar at SS, and 3B Mike Moustakas. The Royals took a serious blow to the gut when closer Jokaim Soria went down with an elbow issue and will require TJ surgery but maybe the Royals dodged a bullet if free agent signee Jonathan Broxton can bounce back and become a workable closer once again, a long shot to be sure but still, a chance. The Royals starting pitching is what really needs to take a step forward if this team is to become a contender. Luke Hochevar anchors the rotation but he still young and is slowly improving. Jonathan Sanchez who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants has some potential and could become their number 2 starter. Veteran Bruce Chen continues to get his 10-12 wins each year although I don’t know how and Felipe Paulino slides in as the fourth starter although he could miss the first part of the season. Paulino has control issues but he can also strikeout some hitters. The fifth spot is open and the Royals would like to see youngster Danny Duffy lock up that spot. The Royals need to find a way to improve their starting pitching before they can be considered a serious challenger.

I pick the Chicago White Sox to finish in the Central Division basement. The mighty whities are a high-priced team that has under performed and is old to boot. White Sox GM Ken Williams has shown over the last few years that he doesn’t have a clue on how to be a big league general manager and the sooner he is fired the sooner the White Sox can once again can become a contender. The White Sox let Ozzie Guillen go as manager and hired the totally inexperienced former 3B Robin Ventura to manage this motley crew. The Sox have some proven starting pitching in John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jake Peavy but Peavy is always hurt and you can’t count on him to be a solid contributor. Former Twins pitcher Philip Humber was a pleasant surprise for the Sox last season but he remains unproven. The Sox have moved the young fireballing Chris Sale out of the pen and into a starters role so his transition will be closely watched. Since the whities traded their closer Sergio Santos to Toronto during the off-season they are in need of a closer and it appears that Matt Thornton will start the season in that role but indications are that Addison Reed will take over the closers role before the 2012 season comes to a merciful end for the Chicago White Sox.

That bring us to the Minnesota Twins who unfortunately will finish third in this weak AL Central with a 78-84 record. 78 wins does not sound like much but it is a nice 15 win improvement after last years dismal showing. The Twins fired GM Bill Smith and put former GM Terry Ryan back in the driver’s seat but Ryan is driving a Chevy and Twins management is selling it as a BMW and this past off-season instead of going into a rebuilding mode after losing Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and several others, the team decided to try to plug some leaks, drop their payroll by $15 million and see if they can regain their 2010 form. They signed 38 career utility player Jamey Carroll to be their starting shortstop, they signed Josh Willingham to provide some power as a corner outfielder and catcher Ryan Doumit to provide some pop as the back-up catcher. Last season catcher Joe Mauer had a horrible season hitting .287 and playing in just 82 games due to some mysterious injuries that still have not been explained but Mauer has worked hard this spring and you have to think he is back to being the All-Star catcher he should be. 1B Justin Morneau was even worse, hitting .227 with four home runs and playing in 69 games due to a variety of injuries but his major issue was the concussion he suffered in Toronto the previous season. Morneau started spring training playing 1B but midway through spring training he was hitting under .100 and the team decided that Morneau would be the primary DH this season although he would still see time at 1B but I would expect him playing first base less than 30 times this season. Morneau caught fire with his bat but still seldom makes an appearance at 1B in Florida. The Twins need Morneau to hit like he can and to stay healthy but that might be asking a lot based on what Justin has shown the past few years. The second baseman, often injured Alexi Casilla is in a make it or break it season and he has to prove he can play 150+ games, something he has never done. He has already missing games in spring training due to a sore knee. The leader of the Twins “fun bunch” is 3B Danny Valencia who is coming off a “sophomore slump” season in 2011 both with his bat and in the field. Valencia has to start to field at 3B like he cares and to hit more for average versus trying to be that dead pull hitter that he showed in 2011. A little humility by Valencia wouldn’t hurt either, Danny is not God’s gift to baseball even though he seems to think he is. Denard Span has to prove that he is over his own concussion and neck woes and that the Twins can count on him to play day in and day out in centerfield because he has a lot of ground to cover when Willingham is in left and Trevor Plouffe or Ryan Doumit is playing in right. Right field is probably a platoon between Plouffe, Doumit and maybe even Ben Revere who has a throwing arm like a pop gun. The Twins starting pitching is shaky at best and that is kind of funny because going back just a few years the Twins thought their starting pitching was a strength and some bloggers thought we had too much starting pitching but that was just before Kyle Gibson was deemed to need TJ surgery and Alex Wimmers had no clue where home plate was. Francisco Liriano has had a super spring and he is in his contract year but no Twins starter has shown as much “Jekyll and Hyde” personality as Francisco has. One day the man pitches a no-hitter and the next time out he can’t string two good innings together. Scott Baker can be really good but you can also count on Scott Baker to hit the DL at least once each season and this year he will start the season on the DL. I find Baker an interesting pitcher because he makes his living pitching high in the strike zone. What drives me crazy with Baker is that the man never shows any emotion. Get mad, slam your glove down, anything, just show me you are alive Scott. Carl Pavano is one of those guys that goes out and throws 200 innings and gives up 2225 hits but keeps his team in the game. This coming from a guy that had a huge contract with the Yankees between 2005-2008 and was hurt year after year while pitching in just 26 games. Nick Blackburn owns the Twins number 4 starting spot and the sinkerballing right hander is starting his fifth season in the Twins starting rotation. Blackburn, a pitch to contact guy has started at least 26 games each season although his innings pitched have decreased the last two years from a career high of 205 in 2009. Blackburn is one of those guys that gives hitters a comfortable collar but then there are other games when he gives up hit after hit. Blackburn has pitched a few big games for the Twins and has seems to rise to the occasion. The last spot in the starting rotation belongs to newly acquired Jason Marquis a 33-year-old right hander beginning his 13 big league season and is a lot like Pavano, gives up a lot of hits but keeps his team deep into games. Not a stellar rotation by any means but when they pitch well, the Twins have a chance as Gardy might tell you. How about the relievers? Who knows, the Twins resigned Matt Capps to be their closer after Joe Nathan hit the trail for Texas. Capps is not one of the elite closers in the league but does a team that is destined to finish under .500 need an elite closer? I don’t think so and I think Capps can be a good character on this team. Minnesota native lefty Glen Perkins had a breakout season both on the pitching front and out of Gardy’s doghouse. Perkins was outstanding last season and was the Twins best pitcher most of the year. Brian Duensing moves to the bullpen after a disappointing year in the starting rotation in 2011 and he should do a good job there based on what he has shown there previously. Matt Maloney and Jared Burton, both former Redlegs appear to have earned bullpen jobs. Anthony Swarzak is the long guy in the pen and sometimes starter and that role seems to fit him well. The final bullpen spot is still to be determined with Jeff Gray and Alex Burnett still battling it out as spring training winds down. Kyle Waldrop was in the running for the final spot too but he ended up taking a spot on the DL bench.

Ryan did what he could to get more offense on the field but in the process he sacrificed his defense, particularly in the outfield. The fact that the Twins will not have Justin Morneau at 1B will also hurt the other infielders who are used to having Morneau scoop their bad throws out of the dirt. The Twins have numerous holes but they do have some young players that are knocking on the door like Chris Parmelee at 1B, Brian Dozier at SS, Joe Benson in the outfield, Liam Hendriks as a starter and Carlos Gutierrez in the pen. It is starting pitching that the Twins crave but outside of Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers, their does not appear to be a lot there. If the youngsters do indeed turn out to be big leaguers, Ryan will have a core to build on. Deeper in the minors they have some players that could turn out to be stars in a few years. We as fans sometimes fall in love with our teams players and hate to see them go but baseball is like life, you have to keep moving forward and change is necessary, if you stand still,  it means that someone is gaining on you. Change is good, we need to embrace change. Going into 2011 Gardy and Smith talked about the need to add speed, no one talks about speed this year….. I wrote all this and didn’t mention Tsuyoshi Nishioka until just now, see how easy it is to forget?

When the smoke clears, Twins fans should be dancing on Target Plaza if this team can somehow play .500 ball, I unfortunately don’t see it happening in 2012. I just hope that the Twins play some exciting baseball the way it should be played and hopefully fans will still keep coming to Target Field to watch them.

Division winners – Rays, Tigers, Angels

Wild Cards – Yankees, Rangers

Tampa Rays move on to represent the American League in the World Series

As the Twins world turns

Carl Pavano

With opening day just around the corner, numerous reports surfaced on Tuesday that the Minnesota Twins’ opening day starting pitcher Carl Pavano is facing a bizarre legal distraction. According to myrecordjournal.com, “police in Southington, Connecticut were investigating allegations that a high school classmate of Pavano’s, Christian Bedard, threatened to reveal an alleged homosexual relationship they had and to write a book about it unless Pavano apologized to him and bought him an SUV”. The site goes on to say that “Pavano, a 36-year-old married father of two, grew up in Southington and pitched the American Legion Post 72 baseball team to a state title in 1993 and helped deliver legendary Southington High coach John Fontana his first state championship in 1994.” Fontana, who retired in 2002 as the second winningest coach in Connecticut baseball history, said he does know Pavano very well. He doesn’t believe that Pavano and Bedard had an intimate relationship in their teens, as Bedard alleges. Carl was in my guidance office all the time,” Fontana said. “I saw him dating and going out with girls all over the place. I would say (Bedard’s claim) is highly unlikely. I doubt it.” Fontana pointed out that Pavano has had highly publicized relationships with actress Alyssa Milano and model Gia Allemand and is married to former model Alissa Zandy.

Pavano has had no comment to this point but eventually Pavano who has always been available to reporters for comment will step forward with his side of the story and hopefully clear up this strange story.

UPDATE as of May 31, 2012 according to the Associated Press –

HARTFORD, Conn. – Police in Connecticut have closed an investigation into allegations of a blackmail attempt against Twins pitcher Carl Pavano without making an arrest.  Southington police Lt. Lowell DePalma says the case was closed because Pavano and his family declined to provide statements. In March police said they were investigating allegations that Pavano’s former Southington High School classmate, Christian Bedard, threatened to reveal an alleged relationship they had unless Pavano bought him a Range Rover. Pavano’s sister, Michelle DeGennaro, complained to police in December that Bedard was making up a false story in an attempt to extort her family. Bedard said Thursday he is glad the investigation is over. He said “Carl and the Pavano family can thank his sister for bringing national attention to these false allegations and our relationship.”

Only in spring training

When the Twins play a team not too far from Fort Myers their minor league teams also play that same organizations teams at their level, usually the AA and AAA teams play at one of the host cities and the two A ball teams play at the other city. Yesterday the Twins were playing the Baltimore Orioles in Sarasota so the Rochester team played Norfolk and the New Britain played Bowie in Sarasota while Fort Myers played Frederick and Beloit played Delmarva at Hammond Stadium. I stopped off at Hammond Stadium about 12:30 PM expecting to be a little early for the Fort Myers and Beloit games but when I parked my car I could see that the games were already underway, had I read my schedule correctly I would have seen that the games today started at Noon versus 1 PM. Oh well no biggie. I wandered over to the first field and saw Beloit taking on Delmarva and on another field I saw the extended group of players playing an inner squad game but Fort Myers and Frederick were nowhere to be seen. After watching the Beloit game for a while I asked what happened to Fort Myers and Frederick and I was told they were playing in the main stadium today.

Marty Popham

I entered the stadium and the game was underway and there were so few fans there that the players that were not in playing in the game that day outnumbered the fans as they sat in the stands and watched their teammates play. I didn’t recognize many of the players but I sat down next to a pitcher that was keeping the pitching chart and manning the radar gun for the game. After introducing myself I found out that the player was RHP Marty Popham, a 24-year-old AAA Rule 5 draft pick from the Cleveland Indians this past off-season. Marty said that the minor league Rule 5 draft is a bit different from the major league Rule 5 draft in that the Twins keep him regardless of the team he may be assigned to play for. The 6’6″ Popham was a 20th round pick for the Indians in 2008 and last season he pitched A ball in Kinston, AA ball in Akron and AAA ball in Columbus going 6-3 with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP with 106 strikeouts in 112 innings. He is pleased to be with the Minnesota organization and hopes to make his mark with the Twins. Marty throws a 4 seam and 2 seam fastball, curve, slider and periodically mixes in a knuckleball. Marty lives in Louisville, Kentucky where he and his fiancée just bought their first home this past off-season. I also ended up talking briefly with reliever Caleb Thielbar, 25, a Northfield, Minnesota native who was with the Brewers organization for a while and then was released and played for the St. Paul Saints last year before the Twins signed him for their Fort Myers ballclub. Both Thielbar and Popham mentioned that they were surprised how many players there were with the Twins organization with roots going back to the North Star state.

I really don’t know what the final score of the game was and there is no score being kept that I could see but I think that Fort Myers did win. The only home run of the game that I saw was a 3-run shot over the left field fence next to the foul pole by 2B Andy Leer. That ball left the park in a hurry. I almost forgot to mention that Carl Pavano pitched a couple of innings in the game and Ryan Doumit caught Pavano for Fort Myers. Pavano looked sharp but then again he was pitching against the A ball Frederick Keys. I ended up taking some pictures that I have uploaded to my 2012 spring training pictures site and then I called it a day. How often do yu get a chance to sit in the stands and talk with the players as you watch a game, only in spring training baby, only in spring training. You can’t beat it, but it is quickly coming to and end, only a week or so to go and I think I will stop by on Monday and watch Rochester takes on New Britain, Beloit take on Fort Myers and the GCL extended team will play an inner squad game. It is an early start on Monday, 10AM local time  as the boys of summer need to wrap things up and break camp the next day. I will be “breaking camp” and heading home to Minnesota myself just a few days later so I can be sure to be home by the time the Easter bunny shows up because who knows, he might bring me something good.

This morning I read that the Twins gave Joel Zumaya, 27, his release, baseball has been a “tough row to hoe” for the fire-balling reliever as he has suffered injury after injury. I would have enjoyed watching Zumaya in a Twins uniform.

When you get cut by the big league club you almost always get to report to one of the minor league teams but when you get caught by a minor league club all you get is “an opportunity to look for a job” and for many of the guys the Twins cut today, it could be a job in the real world. Baseball is tough and your career can be over at any point in time. Good luck to pitchers Matt Bashore, Ben Tootle, Jason Bulger, and Deinys Suarez, infielders Chris Cates, Steve Pearce, and Roy Larson, along with outfielders Dustin Martin and Tyler Koelling.

Twins Trivia 25 man roster

With the 2012 season less than two weeks away it is still very difficult to predict to will be on the Twins 25 man roster when the Twins take on the Orioles in Baltimore on April 6th. That is not normal for the Twins of recent years but when you lose a few veterans to free agency and the team is coming off a 63-99 record you should not be surprised that there are questions everywhere. I do think the Twins will make a trade or two before the season opens and who knows who might suffer an injury that could change everything. An injury could dramatically change the starting line-up and who makes the 25 man roster on opening day. Here is how I see the team starting the season, I don’t think it will stay that way for long but here is how I see the Twins coming out of the starting gate.

Catcher – The starting catcher will obviously be Joe Mauer who hopefully can catch 120-130 games and play some first base and DH. His primary back-up will be Ryan Doumit. I think the Twins need to carry a 3rd catcher because Mauer and Doumit are both injury prone and will play other positions. I would not be surprised to see all three of their catchers playing in the same game now and then. The Twins third catcher this year will be J.R Towles (an easy addition to the 40 man roster) because the Twins will trade Drew Butera before the season starts to a team that needs a back-up catcher. The Twins are loyal to a fault sometimes and since they have no room in the majors for Butera, they will try to find him a big league job somewhere. Josh Willingham was a catcher earlier in his career so he could be an emergency back stop for Gardy too.

1B – The Twins black hole, the huge unknown. Justin Morneau should be here but I’m afraid we won’t be seeing a lot of Justin at 1B. If Morneau could regain his health, play 1B and even be 90% of what he was in the past, this Twins team would be dramatically better and the team make-up would be much different. The Twins primary first baseman for now and the forseeable future is Chris Parmelee but you will also see Mauer here and Doumit will also show up at first for  a few games and even Luke Hughes can play here if needed.

2B – Belongs to Alexi Casilla but Alexi has played over 100 games in a season only once and that was back in 2006 in the minors. The switch hitting Casilla could really provide a big lift to the team if he can stay healthy and play 150+ games but I think we can count on Alexi taking a mini vacation on the DL this year too. Casilla is a streaky hitter but he has provided some key hits for the Twins over the years. Terry Ryan has always been a Casilla fan but I think he is looking at this year as a “make it or break it season” for Alexi, he either proves he can do it this year or he is history. The back-up second baseman is Luke Hughes but Jamey Carroll can play second too. In an emergency Trevor Plouffe can also play there.

SS – Free agent acquisition Jamey Carroll will start the season at short but I don’t see him holding on to this role for long. Carroll has had over 400 at bats only twice in ten big league seasons, why should things change at 38 years of age? I think by mid June we will see the Brian Dozier shortstop era begin and Carroll who was signed for two years will become the utility player the Twins are looking for, albeit a bit on the expensive side. Casilla will play some short in a back-up role and if the Twins are really in dire straights, they can slip Hughes or Plouffe over there for a game or two.

3B – Should belong to Danny Valencia but he needs to prove he is a big leaguer. Last year was a real downer for Valencia both in the field and at the bat. Hopefully Valencia gets his head screwed on straight and starts playing like he can. Valencia is not the .311 hitter he showed us in 2010 but he is also not the .246 hitter he forced us to watch in 2011 either. Danny needs to adjust his attitude too, he is not a super star so he had better quit acting like one because Minnesota fans will not tolerate it. Hughes is Valencia’s back-up but Carroll and Casilla could play third in a pinch too. In the unlikely event that Valencia is really the 2011 version, hopefully Sean Burroughs is still with the Twins and can be called up. Burroughs can hit, although not with a lot of power and I see him as the last player cut and the Twins 26th man.

LF – Will be manned by Josh Willingham just like I said all along since the Twins signed him. Gardy announced that Willingham is his left fielder after trying Willingham in right all spring. It will be interesting to see how Twins fans react to Willingham as the Twins have not had a hitter like Willingham in some time. Josh did hit a career high 29 home runs in Oakland last season but he also struck out 150 times and had a .246 average. Willingham was a catcher earlier in his career so speed is not his game and he is 33 years old and now there are reports that his arm is not as good as the Twins may have thought. Back-ups here would be Ben Revere, Denard Span, and Trevor Plouffe.

CF – Will be patrolled by Denard Span. The fly in the ointment here would be if Span is not totally recovered from his neck pain or his concussion from last season. Span needs to stay healthy, hit at least .285 steal 25 bases and score about 100 runs if he wants to meet Twins expectations of him in the lead-off spot. The only other outfielder the Twins have to play center is the speedy Ben Revere and he can cover center but his hitting is not all it could be and he throws like a grandmother. The Twins say that Span’s throwing is improved but you can’t make silk from a pigs ear. With Willingham in LF and who ever plays RF be it Doumit, Plouffe, Parmelee, Span and or Revere will have to cover a lot of ground in center because they are the only two outfielders with any speed what so ever.

RF – I think you will see a number of players out here but I think that Ryan Doumit and Trevor Plouffe will get the majority of the time in right. But who ever the Twins put in right other that Span or Revere has to be considered a defensive liability. I think Twins fans will be shocked at how many balls don’t get caught in left and right this season. Who ever plays right might just be keeping the position warm for when Joe Benson gets called up later this season. Benson’s call-up may even move Span to RF.

Bench – Luke Hughes is out of options and is a nice hitter to have coming off the bench. Luke can play all four infield positions, just not well enough to be a starter in any of them. The second bench player is catcher  J.R. Towles who I think beats out Drew Butera. I know that Towles is a .187 hitter as compared to Butera’s .178 but Towles at least has a chance to be a better hitter, I don’t think Butera does. Towles is a good catcher too and earlier this spring I saw him playing 3B and he wasn’t too shabby for a catcher. Butera gets traded. The third member of the Twins bench is Trevor Plouffe the former SS/2B and now an outfielder. Plouffe has some pop in his bat and hopefully he can learn to play the outfield just as Michael Cuddyer did many years earlier and he can still play 2B/SS  if things get hinky for Gardenhire. Ben Revere has my final bench spot simply because the Twins need someone like him to take over in LF or RF late in the game when the Twins have a lead or to come off the bench as a pinch-runner to steal a base.

SP – Is all locked up assuming there are no injuries. Francisco Liriano coming off his best spring ever is pitching like his Twins career depends on it and it is about time. I am not going to get too excited  just yet with Francisco because I know how quickly things can fall apart for him. What a treat it would be if Liriano finally pitched like the ace many predicted he would be. Having said that, if someone offers me an arm and a leg with potential, I trade Francisco so fast it would make your head spin. Scott Baker has the potential to be a very good pitcher but he has hit the 200 inning mark just once in his seven-year career but he is only 30. What frustrates me about Baker is that when he gets some runners on base he turns the game into slo-mo. One more thing, Scott never shows any emotion, some would say that is a good thing, I would say hogwash, I have no problem when a pitcher comes into the dugout after giving up a couple of runs and slams his glove to the bench, show me your care Scott Baker! Baker is like Camilo Pascual in that he likes to take a summer break to the DL list once a year or so, count on it. Carl Pavano is not a great pitcher but he is one of those inning eaters who wants to win. Pavano can pitch on my team any time. Nick Blackburn is my number 4 SP, but I gotta say I don’t understand him at all. Blackie is a sinkerballer who has some great games and others that he just stinks, you just don’t know who you are going to get on any given day. When Nick is healthy, he can throw some innings. The fifth starter is the newest addition, Jason Marquis. I think you will find Marquis to be Pavano like except he gives up fewer hits but walks more batters and when healthy he too will give you 200 innings. The next starter in line should one of the five get hurt or traded is probably Liam Hendriks who could be a lot like Brad Radke if all goes according to plan. Maybe late in the season there may even be a Kyle Gibson sighting, that would be cool.

Bullpen – The Twins bullpen is anchored by closer Matt Capps and I don’t have nearly the issues with Capps that many other bloggers and fans have. He is not the 3 up 3 down kind of closer but he will get the job done when the scoreboard shows the Twins leading late in the game. If former Orioles manager and Hall of Famer Earl Weaver was the Twins manager today he would call Capps a “two-pack closer”.  That meant that Weaver, a heavy smoker could go through two packs of cigarettes as he watched his closer finally shut down the opposition. The set-up guys are left hander and Minnesota native Glen Perkins who escaped the Twins doghouse last season and found his niche with the ballclub and was arguably the Twins top pitcher in 2011. The RH set-up guy appears to be Jared Burton a free agent from this past off-season. Burton is only 30 but he has some injury baggage but a few years ago he was touted to be the Reds closer of the future. Burton has a nice career 7.6 SO/9 but the down side is that he also has a 3.9 BB/9, kind of a more experienced Alex Burnett. The left-handed former starter Brian Duensing will spend the season in the bullpen this year where he is probably better suited. The big right-hander Anthony Swarzak has lost some weight this off-season and some say he has locked down a bullpen spot but I don’t think he has pitched all that well this spring but he has not pitched poorly enough not to earn a spot in the Twins bullpen either. Swarzak is versatile and can pitch several days in a row and that makes him a Twin in 2012. The 28 year-old left handed Matt Maloney is a surprise to me. The former Cincinnati Redleg is striking them out right and left this spring and he has good control, yes, I know, spring training stats mean squat but you have to base your decision on something and that is all I have to go on right now. Maloney seems too good to be true but the Twins “have caught lightning in a bottle” before when they went searching for relief pitchers, maybe they did it again. The final bullpen spot I think is still up in the air between Alex Burnett, Jeff Manship and Kyle Waldrop, all right handers and all with some Twins experience on their resume. If you go strictly by the numbers this spring, Waldrop is the guy for you but Burnett has the most experience and according to Twins management, has upside going for him so I gave the final bullpen spot to the Alex Burnett.

So that is it, that is how I see the Twins roster shaping up for the 2012 season. I would like to tell you that the Twins will contend for the AL Central title this year but I just don’t see that in the cards. I do see the Twins roster turning over as the season moves along and players like Chris Parmelee, Brian Dozier, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Carlos Gutierrez, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros and maybe Kyle Gibson taking on bigger roles at Target field. A number of Twins players will be out to prove that they are still bonified big leaguers this season. 2012 will be a season of change in Minnesota and the July 30 trade deadline could keep GM Terry Ryan real busy. Never the less, I am ready to see the Minnesota Twins open the 2012 season. WIN TWINS!

How about the batting order on opening day? here is how I see it.

Span – CF – bats left
Carroll – SS – bats right
Mauer – C – bats left
Morneau – DH – bats left
Willingham – LF – bats right
Doumit – RF – switch hitter
Valencia – 3B – bats right
Parmelee – 1B – bats left
Casilla – 2B – switch hitter
 

Morneau hitting fourth and Willingham fifth is just Gardy’s loyalty to Justin and reward for his years of Twins service. Morneau and Willingham will switch spots in the batting order very soon.

 

What are these guys up to?

 

Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Ryo Shinkawa pound on the door to get in,

Another beautiful day in Fort Myers, Florida, it was 73 when I got up this morning and it was a sunny albeit muggy 81 degrees when I left the ballpark to go home to hit the swimming pool. No day is complete without me making some comment about the Twins star import from Japan. In the picture above you see Tsuyoshi Nishioka and his interpreter Ryo Shinkawa trying to get back into the Twins minor league complex workout facility after a half hour or so of easy jogging on one of the practice fields. As is normal, it was just Nishioka, Shinkawa and his personal trainer. Nishioka continues to work out on his own most of the time, you just never see him with his teammates until spring training officially begins. Star Tribune reporter extraordinaire La Velle E. Neal III had a quick interview with Nishioka and we asked La Velle what Nishioka had to say, La Velle laughed and said that Nishioka told him “that he doesn’t see himself in a utility role”. That is funny, I don’t either and maybe that is why no one is answering the door when Nishioka and Shinkawa pound on the door to be let in. Maybe the Twins are hoping he just goes away. Last year Nishioka was driving a big black Escalade SUV, this year he is driving a shiny white Porsche that you can see in the pictures that I took today along with the rest of my 2012 spring training pictures.

I didn’t see any pitchers doing any throwing today, maybe they are all saving themselves for this week-end when they need to officially report for training camp. The number of players working out continues to grow every day but I still see no sign of Justin Morneau who in past years (not in 2011) was always an early arrival in Fort Myers. I also have not seen Jamey Carroll, Danny Valencia, Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Ben Revere, Carl Pavano or Gardy for that matter. I am sure we will see the many of them on Monday.

One guy I really like is catcher JR Towles. The man is working his butt off out there very day, you never see him standing around chatting, he is always doing something. The last couple of times I have been out here I have seen him fielding grounders at 1B, 3B and shagging flys in the outfield. I really hope that the Twins give this guy a legit shot to make this Twins team as a back-up catcher.

Let’s see what else happened today? Oh, I had a foul ball hit to me, actually it rolled up to where I was standing. The ball was stamped “official minor league baseball” and I had no use for it so I gave it to a youngster that really enjoyed getting a baseball. The ball put a smile on his face and that little boys smile made my day. I sure hope that stamp on the ball that said “official minor league baseball” is not a sign of things to come for the Minnesota Twins this year. And so another day at the ballpark is in the books.

Can Twins bounce back in 2012? What does history tell us?

Our Minnesota Twins are coming off an atrocious 2011 where the team finished 63-99, a full 32 games behind the AL Central Division winning Detroit Tigers and in the process posting the second worst record in all of baseball. But 2011 is behind us now and we look forward to spring and a brand new season of baseball which hopefully will see the Twins back in winning form. In just a little over a month, Twins players from all over the globe will start to congregate in Ft. Myers, Florida to get into baseball shape which I think really means that they will get in a little stretching, jog a little, catch up on the off-season gossip and  start throwing the baseball around and take a few swings with those shiny new bats they just received during the off-season. When a bad season of baseball ends, there is always “next year” and that next year is just about upon us.

Long before baseball was played, back sometime between 1688-1744 the English poet Alexander Pope said “hope springs eternal in the human breast” and no truer words could be said about how baseball fans look at their favorite baseball teams. Forgotten are the numerous injuries, be they real or perceived, the dropped balls, the hitters that couldn’t run out a ground ball, the runners that had brain farts and stood there and watched as the hit and run unfolded in front of them, the fielders that couldn’t throw straight, the pitchers that keep hitting opponent bats, the perplexed pitching coach who wondered why his pitchers couldn’t find home plate even though it was always in the same spot, the manager who had to make up numerous line-ups each day because he didn’t know which of his players were in the mood to play that day, and of course the owner who was left to wonder what happened to his $113 million.

The injuries that plagued the team in 2011 are hopefully healed and with another year of experience under their belts, we all hope the Twins are back and playing baseball the way that Twins fans of today expect. We are not interested in seeing the Twins play ball as they did say between 1971-1986 when they never won more than 85 games and finished as high as second only once, we expect to see a winning team on the field or at least a team that is playing like they want to win versus the 2011 bunch that quit early and often.

So, what does history tell us will happen to the Twins in 2012? I want you to keep reading, but the bottom line is that while miracles can happen, it sure does not look good. The Twins were 31 games worse in 2011 than they were in 2010, 31 games, only once in franchise history had a Senators/Twins team played so much worse than they had the previous season and those were the Washington Senators of 1934 who finished the season 33 games worse with a 66-86 mark after advancing to the World Series in 1933 with a 99-53 record. The following season (1935) they won 67 games, one more than the year before.

So how have Senators and Twins teams bounced back from such dismal seasons? The best the Senators could ever do was improve by 27 games back between 1911-1912 and the best the Twins have done since 1961 is improve by 23 games as the 1965 Twins did when they won 102 games coming off a 79 win season in 1964.

But let’s look at more modern times so we will look at the seasons between 1997 and 2011 because it probably makes for a fairer comparison based on free agency and player movement of today. In the last 15 seasons here is what has happened in the AL Central Division.

The Kansas City Royals worst drop-off was in 2004 when the team finished 25 games worse than they did in 2003. The following season, 2005, the Royals finished 2 games worse. The best improvement that the Royals have shown their fans was when they finished 21 games better in 2003 than they had shown in 2002.

The Chicago White Sox worst drop-off was in 2007 when the team finished 18 games worse than they did in 2006. The following season, 2008, the mighty whitey’s finished 17 games better. The best improvement that the White Sox fans have seen was when they finished 20 games better in 2000 than they had shown in 1999.

The Cleveland Indians worst drop-off was in 2002 when the team finished 17 games worse than they did in 2001. The following season, 2003, the Indians finished 6 games worse. The best improvement that the Indians fans have seen was when they finished 18 games better in 2007 than they had shown in 2006.

The Detroit Tigers worst drop-off was 14 games and it happened twice, once between 1997 and 1998 and again from 2007 to 2008. The following season in 1999 the team improved by 4 games and in 2009 the team improved by 12 games. The best improvement that the Tigers have seen was when they finished 29 games better in 2004 (to a 72-90 season) than they had shown in 2003, but, 2003 was the season the Tigers put up a pathetic 43-119 record.

That brings us to the Twins, whose worst drop-off was 31 games in 2011 from their 2010 season. The biggest improvement the Twins have shown during this 15 year period was in 2001 (TK’s last season as manager) when they finished 16 games better than what they showed us in 2000. In the past 15 years the Twins have improved their record from the previous season 8 times for an average improvement in games won over the previous season of 8 games. On the minus side their record has gotten worse from the previous season 7 times for an average of -11.29 but that is obviously skewed by the big -31 of 2011. If the 2012 Twins could match their biggest improvement of say 16 games as they did in 2001, that still only moves the Twins 2012 record up to 79-83. The Twins have to improve by 18 games just to reach the .500 mark and would have to improve by 27 games to reach the 90 win mark. It does not look promising.

The Twins have improved their previous years mark by 18 games or better on 4 occassions. The feat was accomplished by the 1991 team that improved by 21 games, the 1969 team that improved by 18 games, the 1965 team that improved by 23 games and the 1962 team that was 21 games better than the 1961 team. Four times in 50 seasons, not good odds for sure and remember, an 18 game improvement only takes the team to an 81-81 record, or .500 baseball. The team has lost Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey and a number of bit players but then again, they lost 99 games when they had these guys. I know they added Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and brought back Matt Capps but how many wins will these guys put in the “W” column?

What this team needs in order to play respectable baseball is for Joe Mauer to step back to earth from the “Twilight Zone” that he was in most of last year and catch 130 games and play 1B and DH for 10-15 more. I see no reason why this can’t happen, Mauer should come out of the gate madder than hell and show everyone that 2011 was a fluke. I will believe that when I see it. The next issue is Justin Morneau, here I am not nearly as optimistic. Justin was just a shell of himself in 2011 and I worry that Justin Morneau’s baseball career is coming to a premature end. That would be so sad as Justin should have many more years in him as a productive Twins first baseman. I hope I am totally wrong about Morneau, but if I was a betting man I would say “show me you still got it” Justin. I hope that Danny Valencia thought long and hard about his baseball career since the 2011 season ended because if he continues to play in 2012 like he did in 2011, he will be receiving his fan mail in Rochester come the middle of May. Valencia might not be the .311 hitter he was in 2010 but he sure better not be the .246 hitter he was in 2011 either. A little more work with the glove wouldn’t hurt Danny either. The Twins outfield is a mess, Willingham is a left fielder and the Twins need him to play right because Ben Revere can’t throw out his grandmother. So that forces the team to play Revere in center which is OK in itself but that means you need to move Span to right field but Span says he wants to play center. In my humble opinion, any outfield with Revere and Span both playing at the same time is a bad thing. I am not sure how things are going to shake out but come the second half of 2012, Joe Benson will be playing in the Twins outfield some where. The Twins signed Jamey Carroll to play short but the man has never had a full-time job in 10 big league seasons and he will be 38 before the Twins open the exhibition season. Is that a move that a contending team makes? We can hope that Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes back to life and show us that he really is a professional baseball player……come on, really, there is a chance. Alexi Casilla at 2B is an enigma but I still have hope for this 27-year-old with parts of six big league season under his belt. The bullpen is a couple of sharp knives short of a complete set and the starting staff of Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, and Jason Marquis would make any manager nervous.

So here it is, you make up your mind, can the Twins compete or will they have to fight and scratch like hell just to reach the .500 mark? Me? Come October, I think we should all be dancing on Target Plaza celebrating manager Ron Gardenhire’s second manager of the year award with a cold drink in our hand if this collection of Twins can win half of their games in 2012. However; if this this team wins 70 or fewer games in 2012, manager Ron Gardenhire may be looking for a job.

Pavano’s Walkoff Shutout

Carl Pavano

September 29, 2011 – The Twins beat the Royals, 1-0, when Trevor Plouffe singled home the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning. That earned a shutout victory for Carl Pavano, who allowed only five hits and did not walk a batter. Pavano is the first Minnesota pitcher to get a shutout in a walk-off win since August 26, 1992, when John Smiley beat the Tigers 1-0 courtesy of a walk-off home run in the ninth inning by Brian Harper. Over the last six seasons the only other major-league pitchers with “walk-off shutouts” were Jamie Shields (May 9, 2008) and Yovani Gallardo (May 28, 2010). Source – Elias

Pitcher Carl Pavano picks up a bat

Carl Pavano

May 1, 2011 – The Twins were pounded by the Kansas City Royals 10-3 at Kauffman Stadium. Twins pitcher Carl Pavano took the loss bringing his record to 2-3 for the season. Pavano gave up 12 hits and 7 runs in 5.1 innings. After Pavano was removed from the game he took a bat to the trash can in the dugout and put on some good swings on it, better than some of the Twins hitters did during the game. “That’s as frustrated as I can get,” Pavano said. “It actually felt pretty good. I just kept whaling away with it. The (bat) wouldn’t break. I couldn’t break a bat in the dugout and I couldn’t break any out there (on the mound). It was embarrassing.” He said his outburst “wasn’t pointed towards anyone.” “I told my manager (Ron Gardenhire) that it wasn’t pointed at him or anyone else,” Pavano said. “It was my frustration. Was it the most mature way to deal with it? No. But it wasn’t pointed at anyone. It actually felt amazing. I’d like to go out and do it again.”

This video is no longer available due to a copyright claim by MLB Advanced Media. Too bad because it was fun to watch.

According to Elias

Carl Pavano

April 9, 2011 – Carl Pavano allowed one run on four hits in 8 innings of work in the Twins’ 2-1 victory over the A’s in the team’s home opener at Target Field on Friday. Since the Twins moved to Minnesota in 1961, only two other pitchers have pitched at least 8 in­nings while allowing four-or-fewer hits and one-or-fewer runs in the team’s home opener: Tom Hall in 1969 (9 IP, 2 hits, 0 runs against the Angels) and Kevin Tapani in 1990 (8 IP, 4 hits, 0 runs against the Angels).

Twins Opening Day Complete Games

Pedro Ramos (courtesy of Twinscards.com)

March 29, 2011 – This year Opening Day for our Minnesota Twins will take place on Friday, April 1st at the Rogers Centre (formally called the SkyDome) in Toronto, Ontario next to the CNN Tower and the shores of Lake Ontario. The once proud Toronto Blue Jay team is coming off an 85-77 season and a third consecutive fourth place finish in the tough as nails American league Eastern Division.

Opening day is always a special day, no one has lost a game as yet, everyone is still in the pennant race and visions of the playoffs are on everyone’s mind. The Twins and Jays are no different and both teams will send their Ace’s to the mound hoping to get off to a fast start. As things stand today, I think it will be Carl Pavano for the Twins and Ricky Romero for the Jays, but I wouldn’t expect to see either pitcher around at the end of the game. Since the 1998 season started 13 years ago, the only complete games on Opening Day were by Jeff Weaver when his Tigers lost to the Twins 3-2 in 2001 in a 9 inning effort, In 2002 both Bartolo Colon then a Cleveland Indian beat the Angels 6-0 in 9 innings and Randy Johnson (130 pitches) as an Arizona D-Back beat the Padres 2-0 in 9 innings, in 2003 Hideo Nomo as a Dodger beat Arizona 8-0 in 9 innings, in 2005 Jake Westbrook of the Indians lost a complete 8 inning 1-0 effort to the Chicago White Sox. The last pitcher to chuck a complete game on Opening Day was the often injured Ben Sheets in 2007 when he pitched his Milwaukee Brewers to a 7-1 win over the Dodgers. That makes 6 complete games on Opening Day in the past 13 seasons.

So where do the Twins stand on opening day complete games? The Twins have taken part in 50 Opening Days and have a 24-26 record to show for their efforts and Twins Opening Day starters have pitched a total of six complete games and the last one was in 1978 but that was an 8 inning effort. The Twins have won 5 of the 6 times their pitcher pitched a complete game on the Opener.

The very first game the Minnesota Twins ever played was Opening Day effort against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium I on April 11, 1961 and Twins hurler Pedro Ramos pitched a complete 9 inning complete game and the Twins were victorious by a 6-0 score over Whitey Ford and his gang. Pistol Pete Ramos finished the season with an 11-20 record while pitching 264.1 innings in his only season as a Minnesota Twin. 14,607 fans saw the game. (Box score)

The second Twins complete Opening Day game took place in 1966 at Met Stadium on April 12 when both starters pitched complete games and the Twins Mudcat (Jim Grant) bested the Catfish (Jim Hunter) and his merry band of Kansas City A’s 2-1 in 9 innings in 1 hour and 45 minutes in front of only 21,658 fans. (Box score)

Opening Day complete game number three took place in D.C. Stadium on April 10, 1968 when Dean Chance went 9 innings and the Twins beat the Washington Senators and former Twins pitcher Camilo Pascual 2-0. Minnesota native Vice-President Hubert Humphrey threw out the first ball. (Box score)

The fourth complete Opening Day game took place on April 7, 1970 at Chicago White Sox Park when Jim Perry pitched a complete game and won the first of his 24 games during his Cy Young award season as the Twins pounded the Might Whitey’s by a 12-0 score. The White Sox starter that day was non other than Tommy John, just a pup then as he was just in his 8th big league season and he would end up pitching in the big leagues for 26 seasons. (Box score)

The fifth complete game and the last time a Minnesota Twins hurler pitched a complete 9 inning Twins win on Opening Day was by Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven, then a 22 year old peach faced kid when he pitched the Twins to a 8-3 win over the Oakland A’s in Oakland-Alameda County Stadium on April 6, 1973. April 6? What is special about April 6? Everybody knows that, it is Bert Blyleven’s Birthday! The loser that day was Jim “Catfish” Hunter. A nice Birthday present indeed! (Box score)

The sixth and final Twins complete game on Opening Day was an 8 inning 3-2 loss to the Seattle Mariners in the KingDome by Minnesota native Dave Goltz on April 5, 1978. (Box score)

That is it, six complete games in 50 tries and none since 1978. One additional bit of trivia since this is of course Twinstrivia.com. Did you know that Camilo Pascual, Jim “Mudcat” Grant, and Jack Morris have “toed the rubber” as starters on Opening Day for both the Minnesota Twins and also against the Minnesota Twins?