Yes sirree, I did poorly on my 2023 prediction and missed by six “wins” with a 93-69 pick. I have learned my lesson and lowered my level of expectation by two games. The Minnesota Twins will win the American League Central with a 91-71 record but it will not be a cakewalk like it was last season. I think every team in the AL Central could have an improved record in 2024. Well, maybe not the Chicago White Sox who could well be the worst team in the American League and who knows, maybe in all of MLB.
For second place in the AL Central I am looking at the Detroit Tigers to finish second again as they continue to improve. Last year the Tigers finished 78-84 and this year I expect them to finish with an 87-75 and give the Twins a run for their money, just 4 games back in the standings. Could the Tigers make the playoffs for the first time since 2014? It is very likely.
The Cleveland Guardians will finish third in the AL Central, kind of by default with a 78-84 mark, just two game better than in 2023. It will be interesting to watch this team evolve with Terry Francona, one of my favorite managers no longer at the helm. This is a team that is used to being in the playoffs but once again in 2024 I don’t see it in the cards for them.
The Kansas City Royals spend some money this off-season, signing some free agents and signing their star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to a huge long term deal. They finished in last place last year with a 56-106 record but I’m expecting them to be better this year, considerably better. Is 12 games better asking too much, I don’t think so. So they finish fourth with a 68-94 mark.
The fifth place team in the AL Central will be the Chicago White Sox and they are headed for the worst record in the American League with a dismal 55-107 and a .340 win percentage. Only the 1948 (.336%) and 1928 (.325%) White Sox had a worse winning percentages since 1901. It is going to be a long season for the team I call the Mighty Whitey’s.
So should you put your money down on Minnesota to hang another American League pennant? I would like to say yes, but I think those pesky Baltimore Orioles are once again going to keep the Twins from getting it, just like they did in 1969 and again in 1970.
Oh, no! Opening game and Lewis hurt again!! Reminds me of the saying that is attributed falsely with Pottery Barn policy:
“Extremely fragile & expensive-you break it, you buy it”.
Hopefully, just a blip and short term.
Another bad break for a great guy, hopefully it is a short term thing.
Great analysis, John.
Key is that Correa, Buxton and Royce Lewis have to stay healthy. Looks like Tigers may be the sleeper in the division. One scribe in Boston picked Skrubel as Cy Young winner; we’ll see.
They did lose ERod to D’ backs.
Love your reference to the’69 and ‘70
seasons and the Orioles/Twins rivalry-the days of Billy Martin and Bill Rigney.
I am despondent about the upcoming Red Sox season, especially their lack of pitching. Good luck and good health for the Twins 2024 season.
Thank you Paul, always great hearing from you. I can’t wait for the season to start. I was surprised to the Boston doing so little this off-season. That Giolito signing I though was going to be good one but the best laid plans go awry. Like in my fantasy draft this year I had the #10 pick and went with Gerritt Cole. I never go with a pitcher in round 1 but I couldn’t resist taking Cole there. Broke my cardinal rule about taking SP in round 1. I did it last in 2002 taking Mark Prior. NEVER AGAIN. Enjoy the season and hope to hear from you again soon.