The Twins trials and tribulations with finding starting pitching

The Minnesota Twins have a long history of problems developing starting pitching. Using 100 starts as a barometer, since 1961 the Twins have signed and developed just 11 pitchers in their system that have gone on to get 100 or more starts in a Twins uniform. The only first round pick in the bunch is Pete Redfern, three round tw0 picks, two round three picks, one fourth round pick, one fifth round pick, Brad Radke was an eighth round pick, one 29th round pick and an amateur free agent (Dave Boswell).

Since the June amateur free agent draft started in 1965 the Twins have drafted 31 pitchers in round 1 or as round 1 supplementary/compensation picks. Actually part of the Twins issues with starting pitching relates to spending money or the lack there of. The first two right-handed pitchers drafted by the Twins in round 1 were Dick Ruthven in 1972 and Tim Belcher (first overall pick) in 1983 who both refused to sign with Minnesota and went on to have long careers in MLB. The first left-handed pitcher drafted in round 1 to start any games was Eddie Bane and his Twins career lasted 25 starts. As I mentioned earlier, the draft started in 1965 but the Twins only drafted starting pitching in round 1 twice (Ruthven in 1972 and Bane in 1973) between 1965-1981. The first RHP that they drafted in round 1 that actually started a number of games (45 in Twins career) was Willie Banks who the team drafted in 1987. Since 2000 they have drafted a pitcher in round 1 a total of 17 times.

Starting pitching signed and developed by the Twins since 1961

Brad Radke
Rk Player GS From To Age G W L IP ERA
1. Brad Radke 377 1995 2006 22-33 378 148 139 2451.0 4.22
2. Bert Blyleven 345 1970 1988 19-37 348 149 138 2566.2 3.28
3. Frank Viola 259 1982 1989 22-29 260 112 93 1772.2 3.86
4. Dave Goltz 215 1972 1979 23-30 247 96 79 1638.0 3.48
5. Scott Baker 159 2005 2011 23-29 163 63 48 958.0 4.15
6. Scott Erickson 153 1990 1995 22-27 155 61 60 979.1 4.22
7. Dave Boswell 150 1964 1970 19-25 187 67 54 1036.1 3.49
8. Nick Blackburn 137 2007 2012 25-30 145 43 55 818.2 4.85
9. Allan Anderson 128 1986 1991 22-27 148 49 54 818.2 4.11
10. Pete Redfern 111 1976 1982 21-27 170 42 48 714.0 4.54
11. Roger Erickson 106 1978 1982 21-25 114 31 47 712.0 4.10
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/20/2016.

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If you can’t find, sign, and develop your starting pitching, you only have a few options at your disposal, you could make a trade, you can sign a free agent, or you can find one on the waiver wire (ha, ha, ha). 

The option I want to write about here is the Twins attempts to trade for starting pitching since the turn of the century, a total of 17 years. Trading for starters hasn’t exactly gone as planned either.

Quality Starts and Twins Wins

A pitcher gets credit for a quality start (QS) any time he allows three earned runs or less in a start that lasts at least six innings. John Lowe who was writing for the Philadelphia Inquirer at the time developed and coined the term Quality Start back in 1985.

Most arguments against the QS begin with the statement that a QS equals a 4.50 ERA and an ERA of 4.50 is not seen as top-notch by anybody. If you look up QS on Wiki you can find some strange situations for and against the term QS, for example, in 2000 Mark Mulder goes 6 and 2/3 innings giving up 15 hits, nine runs but only two were earned and so he gets a QS, in 1982 Mike Scott goes the required 6 innings giving up 7 hits, 5 walks, zero strikeouts, allows 7 runs albeit only 3 earned and he get a QS, on the other side of the coin, back in 1974 Gaylord Perry goes 15 innings and allows 4 earned runs and get no QS, same with Randy Johnson who pitches a complete game while striking out 19 but gives up 4 earnies and gets no QS.

Since 1961, the most MLB QS in a single season record is held by White Sox knuckleballer Wilbur Wood who had 37 QS in 41 starts in 1971. Next on the list is Dodger great Sandy Koufax with 36 QS in 1966 (his final season) in 41 starts. The career leaders in QS from 1961-current are Don Sutton with 483, Nolan Ryan with 481, and Greg Maddux with 480.

LHP Jim Kaat
LHP Jim Kaat

The Twins top five career QS leaders are Jim Kaat with 253, Bert Blyleven with 218, Brad Radke with 208, Jim Perry with 156 and Frank Viola with 144. The Twins most QS in a season  record belongs to Bert Blyleven who had 31 QS in 1972 in 38 starts. That 1972 Twins team had the most QS in a single season with 114 in 154 games, that means that 74% of their games were QS and yet the team finished with a 77-77 record. The others starters that season were Dick Woodson with 26 QS, Jim Perry with 22, Jim Kaat and Ray Corbin with 14 and Dave Goltz with 7. Compare that with the 66 QS in 2014 where the team leader was Phil Hughes with 20, Kyle Gibson had 15, Kevin Correia, had 13, Ricky Nolasco had 10, Yohan Pino had 3, Trevor May and Sam Deduno had 2 each and Tommy Milone put one in the books.

Bert Blyleven
Bert Blyleven

But how close is the relationship of a QS to what really counts, a team victory. If you look at the list that I have provided below that shows the Minnesota Twins QS and the team record you can get a feel for how the two compare. Sure, there are outlier seasons like 1972 when the team had 114 QS and finished the season with a 77-77 record or when the opposite happened in 2006 when the Twins went to the play-offs with a 96-66 record but only had 73 QS. By the way, I don’t remember seeing any Rick Anderson for governor buttons back then.

The Twins historical QS numbers are kind of strange, almost a bell-shaped curve. The Twins have had 90 or more QS in a season 11 times and went to the playoffs zero times. No Twins team with 72 or less QS has sniffed the playoffs either. The Twins have advanced to the playoffs 11 times and their QS were always in the 73-89 range and if you exclude the 2006 season with just 73 QS, the other ten fall between 78-89. Having said all that, in the past 54 seasons the Twins have had 4,266 QS, the team record during that period is 4,274-4,335. 4,266 QS and 4,274 wins over 54 seasons, is that strange or what?

The chart below shows you in a pictorial fashion the relationship of QS and Twins victories. Click on the chart to make it larger.

Quality Starts versus Wins

 

Twins Quality Start History

YEAR QS RECORD
1972 114 77-77
1967 105 91-71
1968 100 79-83
1966 99 89-73
1963 95 91-70
1973 93 81-81
1978 92 73-89
1974 90 82-80
 1984  90  81-81
 1988  90  91-71
 2005  90  83-79
 1965*  89  102-60
 1970*  89  98-64
 1991*  89  95-67
 1969*  88  97-65
 1971  88  74-86
 1989  88  80-82
 1964  86  79-83
 2008  86  88-75
 2010*  86  94-68
 1976  83  85-77
 1992  83  90-72
 2004*  83  92-70
1980  82 77-84
 1987*  80  85-77
2001  80  85-77
 2003*  80  90-72
2007  80  79-83
 2011  80  63-99
 1962  79  91-71
2009* 79 87-76
 1998 78 70-92
 2002* 78 94-67
 1961  75  70-90
1990 75  74-88
 1985 74  77-85
 1979  73  82-80
 2006*  73  96-66
 1975  71  76-83
 1986  71  71-91
 2000  71  69-93
 1977 70 84-77
 1993 69 71-91
 1996 69  78-84
 1983 67  70-92
 1982 66 60-102
 2014 66 70-92
 1999 63  63-97
 2012 62  66-96
2013 62  66-96
1997 61 68-94
1981 56  41-68
 1995 43  56-88
 1994 37  53-60
 TOTALS  4,266  4,274-4,335

Twins QS data by decade

DECADE QS AVG. QS PER SEASON
1960’s 816 90.7
1970’s 863 86.3
1980’s 764 76.4
1990’s 667 66.7
2000’s 800 80.0
2010’s 356 71.2

I asked Jim Kaat if he would comment on Quality Starts and here is what Jim had to say-

Thanks John,
I’m happy to comment on “Quality Starts”. It’s one of my favorite subjects because it is misunderstood. My pitching stats person, Merrianna McCully, has compiled a 25 year profile on QS’s in her book ‘Three Up Three Down’. She kept all sorts of pitching stats for me from 1988-2006…
The MINIMUM DAILY REQUIREMENT,[ like a vitamin pill] is 6 ip. 3 er or less..the actual earned run averages in a Quality start is a little under 2 in the NL and about 2.05 in the American league..DH factor…The IP’s in a QS game will close to 8 innings pitched. The records show that if a team got just a minimum daily requirement for a QS they would win about 2/3 of their games unless they had an extremely ineffective bullpen.

Jim

Did you know?

  • When Minnesota Twins pitcher Yohan Pino will made his Major League debut Thursday night at 30 years, 175 days old at Target Field against the Chicago White Sox. He became the oldest Twin (since 1961) to make his big league debut. Yohan became the 49th starting pitcher in Major League history since at least 1914 to make his Major League debut at age 30-or-older, and just the 14th since 1982. Starters making their Major League debut at age 30-or-older have won each of their last three starts and four of the last five. Since 1982, teams are 7-6 in the 13 occurrences. The 13 pitchers have combined to go 6-4 with a 3.36 ERA (27 earned runs in 72.1 innings) with
    26 walks and 52 strikeouts.
  • Twins second baseman Brian Dozier has hit 15 home runs while swiping 15 bases this
    season, stealing his 15th earlier this week. It marks the 15th time in Club history and 12th different player with the previous ?ve being Torii Hunter in 2007 (28 homers/18 steals), Lew Ford in 2004 (15 homers/20 steals), Hunter in 2004 (23 homers/21 steals), Hunter in 2002 (29 homers/23 steals) and Corey Koskie in 2001 (26 homers/27 steals). Dozier accomplished the feat in his 68th game which is the fastest ever by a Twin and fastest in baseball since Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers did it in his 68th game.
  • Upon Further Review – Through 1,073 games played this season (through
    Wednesday), Major League Baseball has had 541 replay reviews, which have taken an average of one minute and fifty-one seconds.

*541 Replay Reviews
*130 Confirmed
*153 Stands
*251 Overturned
*7 Record Keeping
*1:51 Average Time

  • Through June 18th the American League has a 79-68 record in Interleague play and is hitting .255 and their pitchers have a 3.80 ERA. National League batters are hitting .254 and their pitchers have a 3.78 ERA.
  • The CWS (College World Series) Legends Team includes former Twins Todd Walker, Eddie Bane, and Dave Winfield (former Minnesota Gopher as well).
  • In baseball, a quality start is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs. The quality start was developed by sportswriter John Lowe in 1985 while writing for the Philadelphia Inquirer. The most quality starts in a season for a Twins pitcher since 2003 is 25 by Johan Santana in 2004. If you use the QS formula going back to 1961, then Bert Blyleven‘s 31 QS in 1972 would be the leader.

Twins career QS leaders from 1961 to present day

Rk Player QS From To G GS CG SHO W L W-L% SV IP SO ERA HR BF BA
1 Jim Kaat 253 1961 1973 468 422 133 23 189 152 .554 6 2959.1 1824 3.28 270 12385 .256
2 Bert Blyleven 218 1970 1988 348 345 141 29 149 138 .519 0 2566.2 2035 3.28 243 10542 .246
3 Brad Radke 208 1995 2006 378 377 37 10 148 139 .516 0 2451.0 1467 4.22 326 10244 .276
4 Jim Perry 156 1963 1972 376 249 61 17 128 90 .587 5 1883.1 1025 3.15 166 7791 .242
5 Frank Viola 144 1982 1989 260 259 54 10 112 93 .546 0 1772.2 1214 3.86 213 7450 .260
6 Dave Goltz 129 1972 1979 247 215 80 11 96 79 .549 3 1638.0 887 3.48 119 6887 .264
7 Johan Santana 112 2000 2007 251 175 6 4 93 44 .679 1 1308.2 1381 3.22 144 5281 .221
8 Camilo Pascual 101 1961 1966 184 179 72 18 88 57 .607 0 1284.2 994 3.31 123 5362 .233
9 Kevin Tapani 98 1989 1995 181 180 19 6 75 63 .543 0 1171.1 724 4.06 109 4897 .270
10 Eric Milton 83 1998 2003 166 165 10 4 57 51 .528 0 987.1 715 4.76 149 4196 .259
11 Scott Baker 76 2005 2011 163 159 4 2 63 48 .568 0 958.0 770 4.15 123 4004 .266
12 Dave Boswell 76 1964 1970 187 150 37 6 67 54 .554 0 1036.1 865 3.49 106 4344 .217
13 Scott Erickson 73 1990 1995 155 153 14 7 61 60 .504 0 979.1 527 4.22 83 4244 .275
14 Geoff Zahn 71 1977 1980 133 126 36 7 53 53 .500 0 852.0 348 3.90 68 3621 .289
15 Nick Blackburn 69 2007 2012 145 137 5 0 43 55 .439 0 818.2 388 4.85 117 3577 .303
16 Allan Anderson 69 1986 1991 148 128 15 3 49 54 .476 0 818.2 339 4.11 87 3474 .282
17 Francisco Liriano 68 2005 2012 156 130 1 1 50 52 .490 1 783.1 788 4.33 76 3341 .247
18 Kyle Lohse 67 2001 2006 172 152 4 3 51 57 .472 0 908.1 561 4.88 128 3982 .285
19 Mudcat Grant 67 1964 1967 129 111 36 10 50 35 .588 1 780.2 377 3.35 88 3227 .260
20 Joe Mays 66 1999 2005 193 146 10 6 48 65 .425 0 946.1 487 4.85 127 4110 .282
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/22/2014.

If you took the list from above and looked at QS%, the Twins career leader is Johan Santana with .640% followed by Bert Blyleven at .632%. Nick Blackburn was not always a fan favorite but his career QS% is .504%, 14th best in team history. Who has the best career QS% in the AL since 1961? That would be Pedro Martinez at .751%. How about the NL you say? That is non other than Sandy Koufax at .782%.

Check out the BA column on the list above, the best is an amazing .217 career BA allowed by the late great Dave Boswell, the man has not gotten his due here in Minnesota and should be in the Twins Hall of Fame. Aren’t statistics fun?

Baseball is such an amazing game, you never know what you will see next and how many times have you watched a game and told yourself, Geez, I have never seen that happen before. How about this one, Brewers score three on one wild pitch.

History indicates Yohan Pino’s tenure as a Twins starter will be short

Yohan Pino
Yohan Pino

A two-hour and 6 minute rain delay before last nights Twins game at Target Field started was no biggie for Twins starter Yohan Pino. After all, he has toiled in the minors for 10 years and waited 30 years and 175 days before making his Major League debut against the White Sox on Thursday.

The right-hander went seven innings, giving up two runs and five hits and one walk while striking out seven, but was lifted after 7 innings with the score knotted at 2-2. His seven strikeouts were the second most in franchise history in a debut, tying him with Darrell Jackson and Bert Blyleven, and trailing only Boof Bonser‘s eight strikeouts set in 2006.

Andrew Albers
Andrew Albers
Alex McColl
Alex McColl

Pino also became the oldest starting pitcher to make a big league debut in Twins history, passing Andrew Albers, who was 27 years and 304 days old when he made his debut with the Twins just last season. The Twins released Albers this past January allowing him to sign with a South Korean team. Albers ended up signing with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization. The oldest pitcher in franchise history to debut in the big leagues was Alex McColl who pitched in his first game for the Washington Senators in 1933 at the age of 39 years and 151 days.

Oldest Twins rookie pitchers to debut in big leagues and have at least one start

Rk Player G GS Year Age ? W L SV IP SO ERA
1 Yohan Pino 1 1 2014 30 0 0 0 7.0 7 2.57
2 Les Straker 31 26 1987 27 8 10 0 154.1 76 4.37
3 Jerry Crider 21 1 1969 27 1 0 1 28.2 16 4.71
4 Cole De Vries 17 16 2012 27 5 5 0 87.2 58 4.11
5 Mark Wiley 15 3 1975 27 1 3 2 38.2 15 6.05
6 Andrew Albers 10 10 2013 27 2 5 0 60.0 25 4.05
7 Tom Klawitter 7 2 1985 27 0 0 0 9.1 5 6.75
8 Dennis Burtt 5 2 1985 27 2 2 0 28.1 9 3.81
9 Matt Fox 1 1 2010 27 0 0 0 5.2 0 3.18
10 Ed Hodge 25 15 1984 26 4 3 0 100.0 59 4.77
11 Brian Duensing 24 9 2009 26 5 2 0 84.0 53 3.64
12 Albert Williams 18 9 1980 26 6 2 1 77.0 35 3.51
13 Francisco Oliveras 12 8 1989 26 3 4 0 55.2 24 4.53
14 Greg Brummett 5 5 1993 26 2 1 0 26.2 10 5.74
15 Jay Pettibone 4 4 1983 26 0 4 0 27.0 10 5.33
16 Dave Gassner 2 2 2005 26 1 0 0 7.2 2 5.87
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/20/2014.
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If you look at the list of pitchers on the list above you will see that none of them were a starter for the Minnesota Twins for very long and in most cases most of them did not pitch for the Twins or anyone else for any length o time. Les Straker did start two World Series games for the Twins in 1987. History seems to indicate that if you do not debut in the big leagues before your 26th birthday (at least with the Twins), the odds are very much against you. We can hope that Yohan Pino has better luck but don’t bet the farm on it. Kyle Gibson just missed being on this list because his big league debut occurred in 2013 at the age of 25 and 249 days.

Twins Minor League Player of the Week

Rochester (AAA – International League) right-handed pitcher Yohan Pino is the Twins Minor League Player of the Week. The 29-year-old Pino made two starts for the Red Wings, going 1-0, 0.82 ERA (11.0 IP, 1 ER) with four walks nine strikeouts and a 7.0-inning complete game shutout vs. Pawtucket on Thursday. The Turmero, Venezuela native has made four appearance (2 starts) for the Wings this season, going 2-0, 0.59 ERA (15.1 IP, 1 ER) with six walks and 12 strikeouts. Pino’s fastball is in the mid-to-high 80’s and he has  great curveball and slider. Pino suffered a foot injury in 2008 and he has not been the same pitcher that once threw a no-hitter in 2007.

Yohan Pino
Yohan Pino

Pino, a right-hander was originally signed by the Twins in 2004 and spent parts of six seasons in the Twins system before being the PTBNL in a trade that helped the Twins acquire right-handed pitcher Carl Pavano in August of 2009. Pino also spent time in the minor league organizations of the Blue Jays and Reds before he was resigned by the Twins this past offseason and was invited to Spring Training.