Do you trade upcoming free agents or do you let them walk?

When you talk about free agency there are some fans that believe that you should trade the player and take what you can get in return before the player leaves and there are those that believe you should let the free agent walk and take your compensation or supplemental pick and you will come out ahead. Who is right? I guess it comes down to how much of a risk taker you are, do you take the players that are offered in a deal or do you think you are better off drafting a player and hope that you can sign him and that he developes into the player you think he can be. The money comes in to play too when you consider the signing bonus and the costs that you will incur in developing that player over the years. What about the time? How long will it take to develop that player before he can help the team.

But now the rules are changing, teams can no longer obtain draft pick compensation for any players acquired midseason. The other part of the change to keep in mind is that teams that keep their players now obtain one compensatory draft pick for losing a top free agent, whereas they previously obtained two selections. If a team loses a player who turned down a qualifying offer to sign elsewhere, the player’s original team will obtain a single compensatory selection between the first and second rounds of the draft (the qualifying offers, which are based on the average salary of baseball’s 125 best-paid players, are expected to be worth $12.5MM or so in 2013). Meanwhile, the team that signs the free agent will lose a first round selection (though the top ten picks are protected). However, that lost first round pick no longer goes to the player’s former team. Instead, the pick disappears and the first round becomes condensed.

Over the years the Twins have traded players that were about to become free agents and they have lost a number of players to free agency for a variety of reasons. Let’s take a look at the Minnesota Twins round 1 supplemental picks over the years.

Travis Harrison (Twins-1s-2011) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent infielder Orlando Hudson.  Harrison is currently playing 3B at Elizabethton.

Hudson Boyd (Twins-1s-2011) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent pitcher Jesse Crain. Boyd is currently pitching in Elizabethton.

Matt Bashore (Twins-1s-2009) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent pitcher Dennys Reyes. Bashore was in the Twins organization for 3 years pitching in only 13 games (sat out all of 2010 with injury) before the Twins released him this past spring. Now in Yankee organization pitching in “A” ball.

Carlos Gutierrez (Twins-1-2008) – Pick from the Angels as compensation for free agent outfielder Torii Hunter. Gutierrez is currently pitching in Rochester.

Shooter Hunt (Twins-1s-2008) – Supplemental Pick for loss of free agent outfielder Torii Hunter. Hunt was a minor league rule 5 pick by the Cardinals from the Twins after the 2011 season but no longer appears to be in their organization.

Hank Sanchez (Twins-1s-2005) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent 3B Corey Koskie. Never got above “A” ball for the Twins and he was released after the 2009 season.

Glen Perkins (Twins-1-2004) – Pick from Mariners as compensation for free agent pitcher Eddie Guardado. Perkins has pitched for the Twins since 2006 and is currently the teams  closer.

Kyle Waldrop (Twins-1-2004) – Pick from Cubs as compensation for free agent pitcher LaTroy Hawkins. Waldrop has been with the Twins off and on in 2011-2012 pitching in a total of 11 games.

Matt Fox (Twins-1s-2004) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent pitcher Eddie Guardado. Fox pitched in 1 game for the Twins in 2010 before being claimed by the Red Sox via waivers later in 2010. Currently pitching in “AA” ball for the Mariners organization.

Jay Rainville (Twins-1s-2004) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent pitcher LaTroy Hawkins. Was in the Twins minor league system for 5 season getting as high as “AA” before the Twins let him go. Out of baseball.

Aaron Heilman (Twins-1s-2000) – Supplemental Pick for loss of free agent pitcher Mike Trombley. The Twins could not sign Heilman. The Mets picked Heilman in 2001 and he pitched in the big leagues from 2003-2011, now in “AAA” in the Rangers organization.

Matt LeCroy (Twins-1s-1997) – Supplemental pick for failure to sign 1996 No. 1 choice 1B Travis Lee. Played for the Twins from 2000-2005 and again in 2007. Played for Washington in 2006. Now a manager in the Nationals minor league system

Travis Miller (Twins-1s-1994) – Supplemental pick for failure to sign 1993 No. 1 choice  catcher Jason Varitek. Pitched for the Twins from 1996-2002.

Torii Hunter (Twins-1-1993) – Pick from Reds as compensation for free agent pitcher John Smiley. Played for the Twins from 1997-2007 before becoming a FA himself and signing with the Angels where he still plays today.

Marc Barcelo (Twins-1s-1993) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent pitcher John Smiley. LHP Barcelo pitched in the Twins system between 1993-1997 reaching “AAA” but never got a call to the big leagues.

Kelcey Mucker (Twins-1s-1993) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent SS Greg Gagne. Mucker played in the Twins system from 1993-1999 but never got above “AA” ball.

Scott Stahoviak (Twins-1s-1991) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent 3B Gary Gaetti. Played in 344 games in a Twins uniform at 1B/3B in 1993 and 1995-1998.

Midre Cummings (Twins-1s-1990) – Supplemental pick for loss of free agent closer Jeff Reardon. Cummings was traded to the Pirates along with Denny Neagle for pitcher John Smiley in March of 1992. Cummings played in the big leagues from 1993-2001 and 2004-2005 but only played in 100 or more games during one season and that was split between two teams. Played briefly for the Twins between 1999-2000.

You can make a pretty solid argument by looking at the 18 supplemental picks between 1990-2011 that there is just one star in the bunch, Torii Hunter. Glen Perkins, Travis Miller and Aaron Heilman (who the Twins were unable to sign) were serviceable big league pitchers. A number of the players on this list never put on a big league uniform.

Bottom line? It is kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don’t. There is no good answer here and every situation is different. Just another one of those things that makes baseball the interesting game that it is.

2009 First Year Draft Notes

June 14, 2009 – The 2009 draft is over and the Twins drafted 29 pitchers (including 17 collegiate arms) and 22 position players. The Twins used their first 4 picks to draft pitchers. The 22 position players were broken down as follows, 5 catchers, 8 infielders, and nice outfielders. Of the 51 players drafted, only 22 were not college players which seems to be a lower number than usual. I think it is nice to see the Twins taking college players that have proven they can play at the college level. Now we will see if the Twins can sign 30 or 35 of these players to contracts, particularly their top picks.

With their first four picks of the draft, the Twins took four college pitchers: Kyle Gibson of Missouri, Matthew Bashore from Indiana, Florida’s William Bullock and Benjamin Tootle out of Jacksonville State. The Twins top pick Gibson may turn out to be a low risk/high reward pick, but it all depends on Gibson’s arm which has been hurt and has limited his innings this year. There are a number of reports floating around on what Gibson’s problem was ranging from his shoulder to his elbow but the reports that the Twins want to believe are that he had a forearm issue and that it is not a serious problem and that all Gibson needs is rest. We will have to wait and see but it will be interesting to see if the Twins have Gibson pitch this year if they sign him in the near future or if they shut him down for 2009.

Drafting pitchers in the first round has not exactly been the Twins forte since the free agent draft started back in 1965. Let’s take a look at some stud pitchers the Twins have selected in the first round.

2008 – Collegiate RHP Carlos Gutierrez picked # 27 over all – Now a SP in A ball with Ft. Myers.

2005 – Collegiate RHP Matt Garza picked # 25 over all – Came up with the Twins in 2006 and since then was traded to Tampa Bay.

2004 – Collegiate LHP Glen Perkins picked # 22 over all – Has been with the Twins off an on since 2006.

2004 – High School RHP Kyle Waldrop picked # 25 over all – Now a RP in A ball with Ft. Myers.

2000 – Collegiate RHP Adam Johnson picked # 2 over all – Pitched a total of 9 major league games, all for the Twins in 2001 and 2003 and finished wih a career ERA of 10.25.

1998 – Collegiate LHP Ryan Mills picked # 6 over all – Never threw a major league pitch.

1995 – Collegiate LHP Mark Redman picked # 13 over all – Pitched for the Twins from 1999-2001 before moving on. Pitched in 219 major league games through 2008.

1992 – High School LHP Dan Serafini picked # 26 over all – Pitched for the Twins between 1996-1998 before moving on. Pitched in 104 major league games and finished career after 2007.

1990 – High School RHP Todd Ritchie picked # 12 over all – Pitched for the Twins in 1997-1998 before moving on. Pitched in 185 games and finished career in 2004.

1988 – Collegiate RHP Johnny Ard picked # 20 over all – Never pitched in the majors.

1987 – High School RHP Willie Banks picked # 3 over all – Pitched for the Twins in 1991-1993 before being traded. Pitched 181 major league games before career ended in 2002.

1985 – High School RHP Jeff Bumgarner picked # 13 over all – Never pitched in the majors.

1983 – Collegiate RHP Tim Belcher picked # 1 over all but Twins could not sign him.

1982 – Collegiate LHP Bryan Oelkers picked # 4 over all – Pitched for the Twin in 1984 and the Indians in 1986 and his big league career lasted 12 games.

1973 – Collegiate LHP Eddie Bane picked # 11 over all – Pitched for the Twins in 1973, 1975 and 1976 and finished his major league career after 44 games.

1972 – Collegiate RHP Dick Ruthven picked # 8 over all but would not sign with Minnesota.

So would you pay big bucks to a pitcher that you drafted in the first round? The Twins history of drafting pitchers in the first round is not exactly stellar but you never know if that next pick is going to be the next Cy Young.

Now let’s take a moment to review all of the Twins first round picks for the last 10 years.

2008 – High School OF Aaron Hicks # 14 over all – Currently with Gulf Coast Twins in Rookie league.

2008 – Collegiate RHP Carlos Gutierrez # 27 over all – Currently a SP for A ball Ft. Myers.

2007 – High School OF Ben Revere # 28 over all – Currently an OF for A ball Ft. Myers.

2006 – High School OF Chris Parmelee # 20 over all – Currently an OF for A ball Ft. Myers.

2005 – Collegiate RHP Matt Garza # 25 over all – Debuted with the Twins in 2006 and since traded to Tampa Bay.

2004 – High School SS Trevor Plouffe # 20 over all – Playing SS for AAA Rochester.

2004 – Collegiate LHP Glen Perkins # 22 over all – Debuted with Twins in 2006 and currently in starting rotation.

2004 – High School RHP Kyle Waldrop # 25 over all – Now a RP for A ball Ft. Myers.

2003 – High School 3B Matt Moses # 21 over all – Now playing OF for AA New Britain.

2002 – High School OF Denard Span # 20 over all – Starting OF for Twins and debuted in 2008.

2001 – High School C Joe Mauer # 1 over all – Catching for Twins since debut in 2004.

2000 – Collegiate RHP Adam Johnson # 2 over all – Is out of baseball after pitching for Twins in 2001 and 2003 with a career record of 1-3 in 9 games with a 10.25 ERA.

1999 – High School OF BJ Garbe # 5 over all – Released by Twins in 2005 and out of baseball in 2006.